RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely put up a respectable performance in Week 16 and ended up as the TE9 in half-PPR formats. He saw a 66% snap share and 13% target share against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In Week 17, he'll go up against a Houston Texans team that is one of the tougher teams against the position, allowing 8.2 fantasy points per game. Justice Hill (concussion) and Nelson Agholor (concussion) have both been ruled out though, and Zay Flowers (shoulder) is considered questionable. That means Likely may see a bigger target share and lineup at some more wideout spots in this matchup, making him a bit of a risky play.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman has surpassed almost every career high this season except for receptions. He's even quadrupled his previous-best touchdown mark (eight this season). In the Ravens' Week 17 matchup with the Houston Texans, they'll be without Nelson Agholor (concussion) and Justice Hill (concussion), and Zay Flowers (shoulder) is considered questionable. Bateman may be the number-one wideout on the depth chart, but he'll remain the primary deep threat even if Flowers plays. The Texans allow 29.6 fantasy points per game to receivers in half-PPR formats, so Bateman has a borderline WR2 ceiling in this game.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry decided to flip the script the last two weeks after putting up a dud against the Giants, he came back and posted 162 yards on the ground against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. On Christmas Day, he takes on the Houston Texans who give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. They still allow 106.8 rushing yards per game but only nine touchdowns and forced 10 fumbles. However, it looks like Henry may get even more work in this game since Justice Hill (concussion) has been ruled out. He remains a must-start for any fantasy managers trusting him in their fantasy championships or playoffs.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews heads into the team's Week 17 matchup with four straight finishes in TE1 territory and nine of them overall. He also leads the position in touchdowns with nine after scoring against the Pittsburgh Steelers for the first time in Week 16. Even though the Houston Texans allow only 8.2 fantasy points per game against tight ends, Andrews could see more snaps and targets with Nelson Agholor (concussion) and Justice Hill (concussion) ruled out on top of Zay Flowers (shoulder) being tagged as questionable. Andrews still holds TE1 value heading into this Christmas day matchup.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has come out of the team's Week 14 bye with a vengeance after posting big-time performances against the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, in a short week, he goes up against the Houston Texans who allow 17.4 fantasy points per game (12th most) to opposing quarterbacks. The last time these two times faced off in last year's playoffs, Jackson finished with four total touchdowns, 152 passing yards on 16-for-22 throwing, and 100 yards on the ground. The QB1 on the season remains a set-it-and-forget-it type of play.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields (abdomen) was limited in practice the last two days and is listed as questionable to play on Christmas Day on Wednesday versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Fields did not suit up for the Saturday loss to the division-rival Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, but he could return as Russell Wilson's backup on a short week. Even if he does, the 25-year-old signal-caller obviously shouldn't be used in any starting fantasy lineups as the clear backup in Pittsburgh. Fields last started a game for the Steelers back in the Week 6 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Wilson has since taken over and been a big boost to the team's passing attack. Since Week 6, Fields has attempted just one pass and has carried the ball seven times for 58 yards in four games. If Fields doesn't get cleared to be active on Wednesday, Kyle Allen will operate as Wilson's backup.
From RotoBaller
The Kansas City Chiefs defense will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. The Chiefs defense held the Houston Texans to 19 points while collecting two interceptions and two sacks in Week 16. The Chiefs secondary has been active lately, catching six interceptions in the past two weeks, but they may have their hands full with Russell Wilson this week. Wilson has thrown just four interceptions this season, but two have come in the last two weeks. The Steelers offense has scored the 12th most points this season, just three fewer points than the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs defense is ranked as the ninth-best defense in our RotoBaller rankings this week. Fantasy managers should feel confident starting the Kansas City defense in the fantasy playoffs.
From RotoBaller
According to Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post, Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler (concussion) is trending the right way for a potential Week 18 return. The veteran running back has been sidelined since suffering a concussion during their Week 12 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. While he has been on the injured reserve, Brian Robinson Jr. has seen the vast majority of the snaps with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. operating as change-of-pace options. Before his injury, Ekeler was deployed as the top third down running back and averaged a solid 11.6 PPR points across his first 11 games in the DMV. He saw 3.5 targets per game and found the back of the end zone four times. Fantasy managers should continue to expect Brian Robinson Jr. to operate in his workhorse role during their Week 17 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Butker had a great bounce-back game last week against the Texans, nailing both field goal attempts and all three extra-point attempts. The Chiefs kicker should have the opportunity to build on that solid performance against a tough Steelers defense. If the Pittsburgh defense can stop the Kansas City offense in the redzone, Butker could score more points in this week's contest. Butker is ranked as the eighth-best kicker in our RotoBaller rankings this week, making him a start-worthy kicker. Fantasy managers should feel confident starting Butker on Christmas Day.
From RotoBaller
According to Brian Costello of the New York Post, New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (knee) said that he "feels pretty good" and that he is "going to play" on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. The 41-year suffered what he deems an "MCL issue" during Sunday's loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status throughout the week in case he faces a setback during practice. Rodgers was beginning to find his footing on what has been a disappointing season as he averaged a solid 26.0 PPR points during Weeks 14 and 15. However, on Sunday, Rodgers would score only 17.4 as he threw for just 256 yards and one score against the Rams. Given his inconsistently all season, fantasy managers should view Rodgers as a high-floor QB2 in all formats facing the Buffalo Bills who have allowed the 13th-most PPR points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
From RotoBaller
According to Matthew Paras of The Times-Picayune, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (groin) would like to return to the field this season, but it will come down to his status. Kamara sat out on Monday evening due to a groin injury he suffered during their Week 15 loss to the Washington Commanders. Kamara was also unable to practice all week leading up to this game which suggest this injury might be relatively serious. Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on his status throughout the week. Given their current place in the standings, Kamara will likely have to avoid any further setbacks to have a chance to return. While sidelined, Kendre Miller will continue to lead the backfield, with Jamaal Williams and Jordan Mims operating as change-of-pace options.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquise Brown will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Brown returned from injured reserve in Week 16 against the Houston Texans. Brown was second on the team in catches and targets on 27% of snaps in his first game back. The 27-year-old demonstrated his ability to get open in crucial situations and make explosive plays, which bodes well for his production moving forward. Brown will hope to be more involved against the Steelers, who rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Brown is ranked WR47 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, putting him in flex range this week. It won't be easy to start Brown in the fantasy playoffs with just one game under his belt this season, but fantasy managers can consider it.
From RotoBaller
According to Mike Triplett of New Orleans Football, head coach Darren Rizzi confirmed that rookie Spencer Rattler would be the team's starting quarterback if Derek Carr (hand) is unable to play this weekend. Carr has missed the previous two games due to a hand injury but has expressed that he wants to return to the field again this season. While sidelined, both Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler each earned a start but either was able to deliver a victory. On Monday evening, Rattler went 15-for-30 with 153 passing yards and added 28 yards on five attempts. If Carr is unable to turn the corner, Rattler should be viewed as a low-end QB2 in all formats despite facing a weak Las Vegas defense that has allowed the 13th-most PPR points to opposing QBs.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Hopkins put forth a lackluster performance last week, catching four passes for 37 yards against the Texans. The 32-year-old looked like a solid fantasy asset after his acquisition at the trade deadline, but his production has since fallen off. With the Kansas City offense running through rookie Xavier Worthy, Hopkins has seen his target volume and production dip the last two weeks. Hopkins will hope to find the endzone against the Steelers, who rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Hopkins is ranked WR42 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, making him a flex option this week. Fantasy managers will have a difficult time starting Hopkins in the fantasy playoffs as he no longer seems like a focal point of the offense.
From RotoBaller
According to Ari Meirov of the 33rd Team, the Tennessee Titans are expected to give Mason Rudolph his second-straight start on Sunday afternoon against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rudolph replaced Will Levis during their Week 15 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and got the starting nod last weekend against the Indianapolis Colts. Despite losing this past weekend, Rudolph was able to lead the Titans to 30 offensive points, for the first time this season. In this game, Rudolph threw for 252 yards and two scores with three interceptions. He should be in a good position to have another solid scoring output this weekend as the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing QBs this season. Fantasy managers in deeper Superflex formats should view him as a QB2 with upside.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Worthy has been acting as the Chiefs WR1 the last two weeks, and fantasy production has followed. The rookie caught seven passes for 65 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets in Week 16 against the Texans. Worthy has received 11 targets and found the endzone in back-to-back games. The Chiefs have decided to lean on Worthy as their leading pass catcher despite the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, and Marquise Brown. The 21-year-old will look to continue his production against the Steelers, who rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Worthy is ranked WR40 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings this week despite his recent production. Worthy should offer fantasy managers a solid floor despite the difficult matchup.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos should not be viewed as a viable streaming option on Thursday evening when the Bears host the Seattle Seahawks. Last weekend, Santos went 1-for-1 on attempts and 2-for-2 on extra points during their loss to the Detroit Lions. Over the past four weeks, Santos has only attempted two or more field goals in a single game on one occasion. During this span he attempted zero field goals in two of the games. Even though he holds a strong 84.6 FG% since Week 9, Santos has not been given enough volume to provide a solid fantasy output. During the fantasy playoffs, it is critical to target kickers on high-scoring offensive units and the Chicago Bears do not fit that criteria. Facing a Seattle Seahawks defense that has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points to opposing kickers, fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a streaming option.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring) is off the injury report and good-to-go for Wednesday's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The top wideout in the Steel City has been sidelined for the past three games with a hamstring injury. While he was sidelined, Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson saw an uptick in opportunities. Before the injury, Pickens was enjoying a nice string of performances with Russell Wilson under center. Since Wilson took the starting job in Week 7, Pickens had averaged a strong 16.0 PPR points per game with 81.2 yards per game. This was a nice improvement over the 10.2 PPR points he averaged during the first six games of the campaign. He should be locked into all lineups as a WR2 on Wednesday facing the Chiefs who have allowed the 15th-most PPR points to opposing wideouts this season.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day in Week 17. Pacheco was expected to be the team's starting running back upon returning from the injured reserve, but that has not been the case over the last few games. The 25-year-old took a backseat to Kareem Hunt in Week 16 against the Texans. Hunt handled more carries and catches while finding the endzone in last week's contest. Pacheco will have to hope the split leans more in his direction this week against the Steelers, who rank 11th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season. Pacheco is ranked RB35 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, making him a flex option this week. It will be difficult for fantasy managers to trust either running back in the Chiefs backfield if they continue to split opportunities.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Hunt has been splitting opportunities with Isiah Pacheco since his return from the injured reserve, but the split has favored Hunt. The veteran running back handled 11 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 against the Texans. Hunt also caught two passes for 24 yards in last week's contest. Despite being the older back, the Chiefs have decided to lean on Hunt instead of Pacheco. Hunt will hope this usage against the Steelers, who rank 11th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season. Hunt is ranked RB33 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, placing him outside the RB2 range this week. Fantasy managers will have a tough time trusting Hunt in the fantasy playoffs.
From RotoBaller
