RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 11
New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte has gradually become one of quarterback Drake Maye's most trusted weapons. He has commanded six targets in each of his last three games, and last week, he finished with an impressive four catches for 47 yards. The second-year LSU product still isn't a top recommendation for fantasy lineups, but he should at least continue to generate some buzz and is worth monitoring going forward. His next chance to turn heads is this Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Boutte currently ranks as a low-end WR4.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye has low-end streaming appeal heading into Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams. For the most part, the veteran kicker has been inconsistent this season, posting double-digit fantasy points in three of his 10 contests so far. Last week featured one of his best outings of the year as he went 4-for-4 on field goals and also converted an extra point. It's hard to tell whether that trend will continue this week against the Rams, but as the Patriots look to stay competitive against Los Angeles, Slye is at least worth considering as a streamer. Fantasy managers should note that the Rams have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing kickers in 2024. Jason Sanders made all five of his kicks against the Rams last week, including a pair of field goals from beyond 50 yards.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1 heading into Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Through five games as the Patriots' starter, Maye has impressed, especially in terms of fantasy football performance. The No. 3 overall pick has scored at least one touchdown in each of his four complete games, including one game with two scores and another with three. Turnovers have been a concern for the rookie, but he makes up for them with impressive rushing production. Maye is averaging 44 rushing yards per start, headlined by an impressive 95 yards on the ground back in Week 9. The Rams have been modest against opposing fantasy quarterbacks this season, leaving Maye in a decent position to fulfill his top-12 quarterback projection.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson faces a consistent struggle for fantasy success -- limited opportunities to kick field goals and extra points. Luckily for him, the opposing Miami Dolphins team, who the Raiders face in Week 11, allow plenty of points to opposing kickers. It could be because they allow teams to drive down the field, but stiffen in the red zone. This would be a perfect situation for Carlson. Still, starting him in fantasy leagues comes with plenty of risk -- he's the 17th ranked kicker on the season, so outside of very deep leagues, there are likely better options to put in your starting lineups. But he's a decent player to start nonetheless.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson ranks as a low-end fantasy RB2 heading into Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. While Stevenson has struggled with efficiency lately and has seen his fantasy value become largely dependent on touchdowns, the Patriots' lead back has firm control on his role and continues to be a high-volume option on offense. Just last week, he touched the ball 21 times, salvaging a fantasy-relevant performance despite failing to find the end zone. This week, he'll be in a decent position to contribute significant yardage, catch passes, and perhaps score a touchdown against a Rams defense allowing mediocre results to opposing running backs in 2024. Stevenson is a fringe top-24 fantasy running back at the moment.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (foot) practiced in full on Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game versus the Los Angeles Rams. Henry began the week by practicing in a limited capacity because of a foot issue. But the Pats will have the veteran on the field for Week 11. He has had flashes of efficiency, compiling seven or more catches three times this season. However, outside of that, Henry has been relatively quiet. But with notable tight ends like Dalton Kincaid (knee) and Sam LaPorta (shoulder) sidelined, Henry could find a place in fantasy lineups in Week 11, even more so if George Kittle (hamstring) doesn't suit up.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker will do his best to get things into gear against the Miami Dolphins in Week 11. He hasn't scored double-digit PPR fantasy points since Weeks 3-4, where he had a nice duo of fantasy-relevant games. Since then, he's managed just nine receptions and 85 receiving yards despite being targeted 22 times. He's rushed twice for 18 yards in that stretch. After initially seemingly breaking out, he's fallen back to Earth. The departure of former lead WR Davante Adams likely means Tucker has to face better coverage from opposing teams. That could be making it harder for him to succeed. He's not worth rostering in the vast majority of leagues.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas has emerged as one of quarterback Drake Maye's most dependable options on offense. As a result, Douglas generates enough volume to give himself legitimate WR3/FLEX appeal in full-PPR and even some half-PPR leagues. Over the last two weeks, Douglas has totaled 14 targets, 11 catches, and 85 yards all despite playing fewer than 50 percent of the offensive snaps last Sunday. This week, the Patriots face the Los Angeles Rams, whose defense has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They're a little better against slot receivers (like Douglas) than perimeter receivers, but the Patriots' 23-year-old pass-catcher should be trusted as a WR3 in most fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers should remain a sure lock for fantasy football starting lineups when he plays against the Miami Dolphins in Week 11 of NFL action. The rookie pass-catcher has had a stellar season so far, especially considering the low production of the offense he's on. He's caught 57 of his 73 targets for 580 yards and two touchdowns, and while his scoring number leaves something to be desired, his value in PPR leagues can't be understated. This hasn't been a great year for tight end production, and he's been a nice reprieve from the misery many fantasy managers face. Set and forget him in your lineups. He's the TE2 in PPR despite having been on bye in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (hamstring) practiced in full on Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation heading into the AFC North clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 24-year-old was limited at practice on Wednesday because of a hamstring issue. However, he's good to go after logging full sessions on Thursday and Friday. Likely began the 2024-25 campaign by catching nine of his 12 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown in the Week 1 loss to the Chiefs, He found the end zone twice in the overtime win over the Bengals back in October. Yet, he hasn't done much else this season. With Mark Andrews returning to form, Likely has no place in fantasy lineups in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has had back to back games of double-digit PPR fantasy point performances, racking up 17.2 points in Week 8 and following that up with 18.5 in Week 9. He'll be well-rested after his Week 10 bye when he faces the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in a Week 11 contest featuring two teams with losing records. Meyers will square off at least part of the time with highly-accomplished cornerback Jalen Ramsey in a must-win for Miami, who has a glimmer of playoff hope left. It will be a tough test, but the sixth-year pro should be started in PPR leagues due to his excellent target volume -- he's had 18 targets in his last two games. Treat him as a WR2 for fantasy purposes.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White has lost his starting job to lead back Alexander Mattison, and it doesn't look like that trend will reverse ahead of a Week 11 matchup with the Miami Dolphins. White had just six carries for 10 yards in Week 9, salvaging his fantasy day (somewhat) with a touchdown rush. Aside from the occasional score, he's not a great option in fantasy leagues considering his poor efficiency and lack of pass-catching upside. He's a low-upside handcuff, and that wouldn't change barring an unexpected shake-up in the backfield. Fantasy managers can hope he steps up his game, but after nine contests, things are much more fixed in this running back room.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis (shoulder) was limited at practice on Friday. However, the wideout doesn't carry an injury designation heading into Sunday's matchup with the Detroit Lions. Davis finished with 45 receptions for 746 yards and two touchdowns last season while with the Buffalo Bills. But he's struggled during the 2024-25 campaign, amassing only 19 grabs for 236 yards and two scores. With Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) sidelined and Mac Jones back under center in Week 11, things aren't expected to improve for Davis, especially with a tough matchup on the horizon.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Alexander Mattison could be a nice RB3/FLEX play in Week 11, when his team will take on the Miami Dolphins. He's set to be the starting RB for his team for the fourth time in a game with his now-backup Zamir White, after taking over the starting job due to White's poor performances. Mattison has nice pass-catching upside and four scores on the season, meaning in deeper PPR leagues, he's a solid flex player. His usage will likely come down to game script, but there's enough upside to chase in leagues with lots of teams, where finding any edge possible is a necessity. He's averaging just under 3.3 yards per carry on the season, though, so in non-PPR leagues, he's better off as a bench stash.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew II has been benched twice this season, yet he was named the starter for his Week 11 game against the Miami Dolphins by head coach Antonio Pierce. 2024 hasn't been kind to the sixth-year pro -- he's tossed just six touchdowns, some in garbage time, while throwing eight interceptions and losing four fumbles. Turning the ball over more than twice for every meaningful score isn't a recipe for success. The Dolphins defense is coming off a surprisingly good effort against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. Minshew faces an uphill battle and is only a starting option in deep 2QB leagues in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie running back Audric Estime could be poised to be the Broncos' leading rusher for the second straight week on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11. Head coach Sean Payton said before last week's loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs that the team was looking to get Estime more involved, but it was a surprise to see him lead the backfield with 14 carries for 53 yards, while Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for three carries for 13 yards. The 21-year-old rookie is expected to continue to see more reps against Atlanta on Sunday, making him the best fantasy option in Denver's backfield as an RB3/flex. The bad news for Estime's fantasy value is he hasn't been targeted through the air over 47 offensive snaps in his six games in 2024, likely making him touchdown-dependent on the ground.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will square off with the Seattle Seahawks in an important Week 11 divisional matchup on Sunday. In Week 10, Purdy was quite good, hanging 353 passing yards and two touchdowns on the Buccaneers in Tampa while leaving a zero in the turnovers column. The matchup against the Seahawks is neutral, as Seattle's defense checks in at the exact median in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. But in a Week 6 matchup in Seattle, Purdy threw three touchdowns -- two to George Kittle and one to Deebo Samuel Sr. -- with no interceptions. Purdy should have his full complement of weapons, with running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), wideout Jauan Jennings (ankle), and Kittle (hamstring) expected to play after spending some time limited in practice this week. The former "Mr. Irrelevant" is being ranked as a top-5 option in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is on a heater over his last three games heading into a Week 11 matchup against the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Sutton was not targeted in a Week 7 win over the New Orleans Saints, but since then, he has caught 21 of his 30 targets for 292 yards and a touchdown in three games against the Panthers, Ravens and Chiefs. The 29-year-old has only three touchdowns through 10 weeks in 2024 after catching a career-high 10 TD passes last year, but his fantasy stock is on the rise with WR2 upside this weekend against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered the ninth-most half-PPR fantasy points per game to pass-catchers. Sutton averages 10.7 half-PPR points (tied for 29th among wideouts) but also ranks ninth with 77 targets, giving him a solid fantasy floor with plenty of volume as Denver's unquestioned WR1.
From RotoBaller
Wide receiver Kalif Raymond heads into Week 11 against the Jaguars after being held without a target in the Detroit Lions' 26-23 victory over the Texans in Week 10. Jameson Williams' return from suspension seemingly reduced Raymond's snap count last week. However, with tight end Sam LaPorta now sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Raymond could see an increase in opportunities this week. Jacksonville's defense has struggled against wide receivers this season, potentially providing a favorable matchup. Despite this, Raymond's limited production14 receptions for 174 yards and two touchdowns over nine gamesmakes him a risky streaming option with likely better choices on waiver wires.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates heads into a favorable Week 11 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars as a solid fantasy option. He remains perfect on field goals this season, converting all 14 attempts, including two critical long-distance kicks in the Week 10 victory over the Texans. While head coach Dan Campbell's aggressive fourth-down strategies may limit Bates' field goal opportunities, the Lions' offensive firepower ensures a steady flow of extra point attempts, with Bates successfully making 32 out of 33 so far. Given Detroit's league-leading projected team total for the week, Bates is poised to deliver strong fantasy production against a Jaguars defense allowing over 26 points per game.
From RotoBaller
