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FFL: Week 11 | NFL: Week 11

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Chris Boswell Nov 17 5:50pm ET
Chris Boswell

Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell drilled all six of his field-goal attempts in an 18-16 victory over the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. This contest was projected to be a relatively high-scoring affair, and while it didn't quite live up to expectations, Boswell saw plenty of action. The Ravens limited Pittsburgh's offense in the red zone, forcing the Steelers to lean on Boswell time and time again. Fortunately for the team and fantasy managers alike, he answered each call. Boswell nailed long kicks of 50, 52, and 57 yards as easily as he converted on three chip-shots. The 10th-year veteran is on pace for a career-best campaign and has solidified himself as a fantasy asset. He'll face another AFC North opponent in the Cleveland Browns next week.

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Zay Flowers Nov 17 5:50pm ET
Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers salvaged his week with a late touchdown during the 18-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He ended the game with two receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown on six targets. The Steelers' pass rushers did a good job at making Lamar Jackson uncomfortable and they consistently had Flowers blanketed no matter where he went. On the plays where Jackson scrambles looking for an outlet, Flowers usually finds a way to get to the ball, but he was double-covered in some of those situations as well. He'll go up against another tough pass defense in the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12.

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David Njoku Nov 17 5:50pm ET
David Njoku

Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku caught all nine of his targets for 81 yards in a 35-14 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 11. Njoku wound up first on the team in catches while finishing behind only Jerry Jeudy in targets and receiving yards. He also caught a two-point conversion from Jameis Winston in the third quarter. Njoku has now drawn at least seven targets in five straight games while notching two touchdown catches over that span. He has solidified himself as a top-six fantasy tight end going forward and should remain in lineups for Week 12's Thursday night matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Jayden Reed Nov 17 5:50pm ET
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Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed was able to salvage a quiet day on the stat sheet with a touchdown in the Packers' 20-19 victory in Chicago against the Bears. Reed only earned two targets on the afternoon from quarterback Jordan Love, but he caught both of them for 23 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown that kicked off the scoring for the Packers. In addition to the receiving work, Reed also had a rushing attempt but lost five yards. With the Packers set for an NFC showdown with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, Reed is more of a mid-range WR2 for fantasy football, as he has to compete with several other players for targets and attention from Love.

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Isaiah Likely Nov 17 5:50pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely led the team in receiving yards during their 18-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. In his first game back, Likely registered four receptions for 75 yards on five targets. He saw more targets and had a more successful day than his counterpart Mark Andrews. With Likely healthy again, the Ravens' tight end room remains the most difficult one to predict each week. They'll go up against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12.

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Jordan Addison Nov 17 5:40pm ET
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Jordan Love Nov 17 5:30pm ET
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Justin Jefferson Nov 17 5:30pm ET
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Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson reeled in 6-of-8 targets for 81 yards in the team's 23-13 victory over the Tennessee Titans in Week 11. Ho-hum. It was another solid day for the fantasy stalwart, as he's now registered at least six receptions and 81 receiving yards in seven of his last eight outings. The only thing missing from his line was a touchdown. Still, it was yet again a strong effort from the former LSU Tiger as he continues to be a source of consistent production for fantasy managers. Jefferson will be a top-flight WR option in Week 12 when the Vikings line up against the Chicago Bears on the road in a divisional clash.

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George Pickens Nov 17 5:30pm ET
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Aaron Jones Nov 17 5:20pm ET
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Derrick Henry Nov 17 5:20pm ET
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Russell Wilson Nov 17 5:10pm ET
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Najee Harris Nov 17 5:10pm ET
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Sam Darnold Nov 17 5:00pm ET
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Jerry Jeudy Nov 17 5:00pm ET
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Elijah Moore Nov 17 4:50pm ET
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Cedric Tillman Nov 17 4:50pm ET
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Lamar Jackson Nov 17 4:40pm ET
Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson continued his struggles against the AFC North-rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in Week 11. No matter either team's record, the Steelers and Ravens rivalry is always a battle. In the close loss, Jackson mustered 207 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on 16-for-33 passing while adding four carries for 46 yards. Jackson and company couldn't find a rhythm from the start, while the Steelers' defensive line made sure he felt their presence. The reigning MVP will look to bounce back in Week 12 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Nick Chubb Nov 17 4:40pm ET
Nick Chubb

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Laviska Shenault Jr. Nov 17 4:40pm ET
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Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. (oblique) exited during the first quarter of Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers. He is officially doubtful to return. Shenault had not registered a touch at the time of his departure. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba remain the top receivers in Seattle, with Jake Bobo and Cody White rounding out the depth chart.

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