RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans came into Sunday's game with 13 receptions for 156 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games. Sadly for fantasy managers, Evans was held in check during Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. The veteran wideout hauled in 2-of-6 targets for 34 yards in the win. He took a backseat to fellow wideout Chris Godwin who had 11 receptions for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. It's worth noting that Evans did leave this game for a period of time but he finished out the final two quarters. Fantasy managers shouldn't be too concerned about his status heading into next week's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. Evans should be a borderline WR1 for that game.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has picked up the slack over the last few weeks. On Sunday, Otton hauled in two of his six targets for 15 yards and a touchdown in win over the New Orleans Saints. The third-year tight end had one catch through the first two games. Since then, Otton has 18 receptions for 158 yards over the last four games. Fantasy managers should keep Otton on the TE2 radar for next week's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jags tight end Evan Engram had ten catches for 102 yards in a loss against Chicago in London. Dynasty Analysis: Engram's game was about the only thing that went well for the Jags, who were humiliated by the Bears on Sunday morning. With his injury possibly in the rearview mirror, Engram should be poised for a solid season as Jacksonville seems intent to force him the ball. His dynasty value should be stable moving forward, despite being on one of the league's worst teams.
Dynasty | Bears quarterback Caleb Williams completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in a win against Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: He added 56 rushing yards on the day. Feel free to put a * on this game based on the fact it was played against the Jaguars, but you may be doing so at your own risk. Williams looks like a player who is developing very quickly and today could have easily been his coming out party. While not quite on the QB1 line as of yet, Williams looks like a solid hold in dynasty leagues and the talk of the Bears (and dynasty managers) missing out on Jayden Daniels will subside for at least a week.
Dynasty | Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze had two catches for 40 yards in the Bears win over Jacksonville in London. Dynasty Analysis: This is a little concerning given the fact Caleb Williams threw for four touchdowns (nearly five) and only targeted Odunze twice on his 29 throws. Fact is, Odunze is clearly behind DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet in the pecking order and dynasty managers are going to need to exhibit some real patience with him this season. Odunze is starting to represent a possible "buy low" in dynasty leagues for savvy owners ready to pounce on impatient ones.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 16-of-23 passes for 168 scoreless yards in a loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: The Browns are now 1-5 in what's looking like a lost season. Speaking of lost, Watson was again highly ineffective and seems incapable of making anything but the simplest of plays. With just five touchdowns and three interceptions through six games this season, the experiment could be coming to a close. Jameis Winston is waiting in the wings and it's going to be tough for the Browns to trot out Watson many more times. His dynasty value is near zero at this point.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 24-of-35 passes for 269 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a loss against Baltimore. Dynasty Analysis: He also led the Commanders with 22 rushing yards. Washington lost the game 30-23, but you can't put that on Daniels, who dealt with a complete lack of a rushing attack and tried to shoulder the entire offensive load on his own. If this is the floor for Daniels (and there are few places tougher to play than Baltimore), he's locked in as a QB1 for the long haul. If you missed out on Daniels this off-season, you're not getting him any time soon.
Dynasty | Ravens running back Derrick Henry had 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a win against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Now with eight touchdowns in six games and a score in every contest this season, Henry is clearly liking his new home and could make a serious run at being the overall RB1 this season. At age 30, he's on pace for close to 2,000 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. While his pace will likely slow, he remains a prime candidate for a contender to trade for as an aging, but ridiculously productive running back.
Dynasty | Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers had nine catches for 132 yards in a win against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: It was a weird day for Flowers, who did all of his damage in the first half. Still, this represented a career day and hopefully a sign to come in a passing offense that has been wildly unpredictable this season. Flowers' falling dynasty ranking will likely take a week off, but we need to see more before recommending him on a weekly basis.
Dynasty | Bucs running back Sean Tucker had 136 rushing yards, three catches, 56 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Tampa's win against New Orleans. Dynasty Analysis: The Bucs put up a whopping 51 points today and Tucker was a huge part of it. Tucker came into the game with 30 total rushing yards in his career but took advantage of the injury to Rachaad White to team up with Bucky Irving and run over the Saints. While this is likely not a sign of things to come, Tucker should certainly be on dynasty rosters at the moment and anyone who has held on to him for this long should be congratulated.
Dynasty | Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler completed 22-of-40 passes for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in a loss against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: The Saints defense was obliterated in this one as the Bucs scored 51 points. With that being said, it's hard to pin much on Rattler, who did his best to keep his team in it. In the end, Rattler showed some poise and times but also forced some throws at others. In short, he looked a little like a rookie, though one with clear talent. It would be a surprise if the Saints moved on from him next week as Derek Carr misses more time.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Chris Olave had one catch for five yards before leaving early with concussion symptoms against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: This has been a season to forget for Olave as he now has just 23 catches for 280 yards and one touchdown on the year. Today was excusable as he was knocked out of the game early, but dynasty managers are still going to be frustrated. Olave remains on the WR1/2 line moving forward, but we'll need to see some production before moving him down the rankings in the coming weeks.
Dynasty | Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completed 20-of-33 passes for 243 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in his first career start. Dynasty Analysis: Maye certainly made some mistakes in this one, but he threw for more touchdowns in this one (three) than Jaboby Brissett had in five games (2). While Maye has a long way to go, anyone who watched this game would tell you Maye simply looks like a better option. The Patriots are looking at a lost season but Maye should have a chance to provide QB2 value the rest of the way.
Dynasty | Titans quarterback Will Levis completed 16-of-27 passes for 95 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a loss against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: The challenge Levis seems to have at the moment is the fact he just isn't very good. Today was especially awful as he averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt and failed to surpass even 100 passing yards. His struggles have killed the values of virtually every Titans pass catcher with just Tony Pollard being the only startable option on the team. At 1-4, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Titans replace him and start looking towards the future. Levis' dynaty value is tanking by the week.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 22-of-32 passes for 258 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in a blowout win over Arizona. Dynasty Analysis: At this point, it's safe to say last year was no fluke for Love, who now has 12 touchdown passes in just four games played this season. While his six interceptions are a bit of an issue, Love looks like a quarterback to build around in fantasy and reality. He hit nine different receivers today and has the looks of a QB1 moving forward this season and beyond in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Romeo Doubs had three catches for 49 yards and two touchdowns in a win against Arizona. Dynasty Analysis: Well, that works. A week after being suspended for complaining about playing time and essentially walking out on the team, Doubs was targeted four times and made the most of those opportunities. The Packers and Jordan Love spread the ball around better than most anybody, so this will have to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, this was a big step in the right direction for Doubs, who should see his dynasty value slide stop for the time being.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin was seemingly unstoppable on the field during Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. The veteran wideout had taken a backseat to Mike Evans lately, but had another breakout performance this weekend. Godwin hauled in 11-of-13 targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Godwin has been a consistent option all season long with five receptions or more in every game. He has also posted 53 receiving yards or more in all six games. The move back to the slot as done a tremendous amount of good to Godwin's game. He'll be a WR1 for next week's game against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving made his first career start during Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. The rookie back did a nice job in place of lead back Rachaad White (foot) on Sunday. He rushed 14 times for 81 yards and a touchdown in the win. He was outshined by fellow back Sean Tucker who rushed for 136 yards with two scores. Despite that, Irving has made a strong push to be the full-time starter, but White and Tucker should both remain in the mix. Irving continues to impress on a weekly basis and should be in the RB2 conversation for next week's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft was the odd man out from the big production in the Packers' 34-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6. Kraft, who had been the overall TE1 the last two weeks in fantasy football, was kept to a relatively quiet day, bringing in just two receptions on four targets for 13 yards. He also added a rushing attempt for two yards as he watched Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed score receiving touchdowns from quarterback Jordan Love, who had four touchdown throws on the day. With the returning weapons back in the lineup for the Packers, it was possible that the targets would be spread out once again and that's exactly what happened as 10 Packers notched at least one target. Even after a quiet game from Kraft, he's still a low-end TE1 option when the Packers stay home to face the Houston Texans in Week 7.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker shocked everybody with his incredible performance on the ground during Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs decided to split up the running back role on Sunday with Rachaad White (toe) being inactive. Both backs played well, but Tucker was nearly unstoppable on the field. He rushed 14 times for 136 yards and a touchdown in the win. He also added three receptions for 56 yards and an additional score through the air. Tucker was fairly unknown coming into this game, but will now be one of the most popular adds on the waiver wire. It's unclear if White will be back next week, but regardless he has struggled on the ground. Tucker has earned his way into the rotation, but Bucky Irving isn't going away anytime soon. Tucker is worth adding for fantasy managers in desperate need of help, but it's unlikely he tops this performance anytime soon.
From RotoBaller
