Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Top DFS Pickem Plays: Week 1
The Cleveland Browns signed wide receiver Jaelon Darden to their active 53-man roster on Saturday and also elevated cornerback Mike Ford Jr. and offensive tackle Germain Ifedi to the active roster ahead of their Week 1 showdown in Cleveland against the Dallas Cowboys. The Browns released former third-rounder David Bell earlier this week, so the 25-year-old Darden will essentially replace him on Cleveland's roster as additional receiver depth behind Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Darden will be competing for playing time with Cedric Tillman and rookie Jamari Thrash and is off the fantasy radar everywhere for now. Darden was originally drafted in the fourth round in 2021 out of North Texas by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last year in 16 games with the Browns, he only served as a kick returner on special teams and wasn't involved in the offense.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (hip) was added to the Week 1 injury report on Saturday and is now questionable to suit up for the season opener on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Peppers is one of the team's key defenders, not just in the secondary, so not having him on Sunday would be a big blow as the Pats try to slow down a Bengals offense that could be without its top two receivers in Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) and Tee Higgins (hamstring). The 28-year-old is worth stashing in IDP leagues but should probably be on benches in Week 1 now that he's up in the air to play. The former 25th overall pick in 2017 out of Michigan is heading into his third year in New England after racking up 87 solo tackles, seven tackles for loss, two interceptions, eight pass breakups, a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and a sack in 32 games (20 starts) over the last two years.
From RotoBaller
According to NFL Media's Tom Pelissero, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love's (knee) ACL is "intact." The latest update comes after ESPN's Diana Russini indicated the signal-caller would undergo an MRI once the Packers' flight from Brazil landed, adding that an ankle injury was "ruled out." Love, who signed a lucrative extension during the offseason, played most of Friday's opener versus the Eagles before suffering a leg injury with only seconds remaining in the contest. At this point, fantasy managers are willing to accept an absence of a game or two, considering the alternative. But until Love is cleared to return to the field, Malik Willis is the favorite to take over under center, with the former Titan failing to connect on his only pass attempt in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals' defense should be started in all fantasy leagues ahead of their Week 1 matchup against the New England Patriots. While the Bengals ranked near the middle of the league for fantasy points in 2023, they get a juicy matchup against the Patriots to open the 2024 season. New England is widely expected to be the worst team in the NFL this year and the Bengals' defensive unit could have a field day against Jacoby Brissett and company. Not only is Cincinnati worth starting in fantasy football, but they also rank as a top-three unit with the potential to finish as this week's No. 1 defense.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay (hernia) is officially questionable for Sunday's game against the Houston Texans. Although he was officially listed as a non-participant in practice all three days this week, head coach Shane Steichen did note that Gay has been doing some kicking. Therefore, with the questionable tag, Indianapolis is leaving the door open for him to play. In the event that he can't suit up, the Colts could choose to elevate Spencer Shrader from the practice squad. Shrader was 4-for-4 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points during the preseason. Gay would rank as a low-end K1 option if he does play in the season opener.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills kicker Tyler Bass is worth starting in most leagues ahead of Week 1 versus the Arizona Cardinals. Although Bass is coming off a down year in which he made just 82.8 percent of his field goals and tied his career-low for extra point attempts, he's still someone worth considering for lineups given the strong state of Buffalo's offense. In particular, Bass could find himself busy this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most points per game to opposing offenses in 2023. The 27-year-old kicker is still a top-12 fantasy option this week.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants defense could be the surprise play of Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings. With a formidable front seven (including pass rush specialist Brian Burns, stud players Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence) and a secondary brimming with high draft picks (such as 2023 first-round pick Deonte Banks), they're poised to challenge Sam Darnold early. While facing the daunting task of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Giants' defense managed to create 12 interceptions last season, showing their potential if they can pressure Darnold into mistakes. With new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, the Giants could see a significant resurgence on the defensive side of the ball, offering hope to fantasy managers.
The New England Patriots' defense falls outside the top-12 units in fantasy football for Week 1. The Patriots are set to kick off their season against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati has an offense with plenty of firepower, but there are real questions about their pass-catching group this week with Ja'Marr Chase (personal) questionable and Tee Higgins (hamstring) doubtful. There's a chance that the Bengals could be without their top two receivers, leaving Joe Burrow with Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, and Trenton Irwin at his disposal. But even if the Bengals do find themselves short-staffed on Sunday, New England will still be difficult to trust in fantasy football. The Patriots have one of the worst offenses, which means the Bengals should win the time of possession battle and therefore be gifted extra opportunities to score. New England also suffered key losses this offseason, headlined by Matthew Judon being traded to Atlanta and Christian Barmore (blood clots) being sidelined until further notice. With a tough matchup and reduced playmakers, the Patriots' defense lacks fantasy appeal in Week 1. You can probably find better options on the waiver wire.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense/special teams was great for fantasy purposes last season and will kick off the 2024 campaign in Atlanta against the Falcons. The Steelers allowed the eighth-fewest points in the NFL in 2023, and although the Falcons scored just under 19 points per contest, Atlanta's offense should be much improved this season with Kirk Cousins under center. Nonetheless, Sunday will be Cousins' first game action since tearing his Achilles last October and it may take some time for the new-look Falcons offense to find its rhythm. The Steelers boast the most expensive defense in the league and have the talent to show for it. Fantasy managers should feel confident rolling with the Steelers D/ST in their lineups this week.
The Los Angeles Rams' defense/special teams is not in a good fantasy situation in Week 1 at the Detroit Lions. The Lions feature a loaded offense led by former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery in the backfield. Not helping issues is the fact that the Rams will be without starting defensive back Darious Williams while they deal with the Lions' explosive offense. Williams was placed on IR with a strained hamstring. The post-Aaron Donald era could get off to a rough start for the Rams in this matchup. In a game that features one of the highest totals of the week, it is best to stay away from the Rams' defense. There should be better D/ST options available in your league.
Washington Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota (chest, pectoral) has officially been ruled out for Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had been limited on Wednesday but then did not practice on Thursday or Friday. His absence means that Washington will head into its first game of the year with Jeff Driskel backing up Jayden Daniels. Of course, Daniels, this year's No. 1 pick, is the only Washington quarterback worth rostering in fantasy football. He's a mid-to-low QB1 option against the Buccaneers.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Byron Pringle was released on Friday, according to an announcement from the team. Pringle's best NFL season came in 2021 with the Chiefs. Last year with Washington, he appeared in all 17 games, catching 14 passes for 161 yards but zero touchdowns. He re-signed with the Commanders during the offseason but evidently won't crack the 53-man roster heading into Week 1 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Terry McLaurin remains the only surefire fantasy receiver in this offense, but rookie Luke McCaffrey could make a name for himself with solid volume and production.
From RotoBaller
The Arizona Cardinals open the 2024 season against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. In 2023, the Cardinals allowed the second-most points in the league (455) and the third-most passing touchdowns (32). Arizona made no significant improvements in the offseason and PFF ranks each unit (defensive line, linebackers, secondary) dead last in the league. The Bills, on the other hand, feature one of the best quarterbacks in the league leading an offense that scored the fifth-most points in the league last year. Aside from likely yielding too many points to make them a viable D/ST option, Arizona also has no pass rush to speak of and with Allen's mobility, the Cardinals won't be making up any fantasy points via sacks. Any other D/ST will be a better option to start in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is expected to pick up where he left off following his breakout last year. Drafted in 2022, McBride was hardly involved in the offense at all until Zach Ertz was placed on injured reserve halfway through the 2023 season. Once McBride had the TE1 role to himself, he took off, ending the season with the team lead in targets (106), receptions (81), and receiving yards (825). McBride was targeted on 27% of routes run in 2023, tops among tight ends, and his 2.10 yards per route run ranked second behind George Kittle. Arizona faces the Buffalo Bills in the season opener on Sunday. Despite their solid defense, McBride should be locked into starting rosters and should finish as a TE1.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater will begin his 18th NFL season when the team takes on the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. Prater is the active leader in career field goals with 401 and is second on the list in career extra points. Last season Prater was 28-for-33 on field goal attempts and made all but one of his 23 extra point tries. With a healthy Kyler Murray leading the way, Arizona's offense should be more effective out of the gate than it was in 2023 which will lead to more opportunities for Prater to put points on the board. Buffalo is expected to score at will against Arizona's defense on Sunday. If the Cardinals can stay competitive it will be because they engage in a shootout which, again, means more chances to score for Prater. The veteran kicker is not the best option out there but he is widely available, has a strong leg (nine FGs of 50+ yards in 2023), and will be featured in a high-scoring matchup.
From RotoBaller
Now entering his fifth NFL season, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch may finally have a regular role carved out for himself in 2024. Buzz has been building around Dortch throughout the preseason as he has shown chemistry with quarterback Kyler Murray and demonstrated excellent route running ability. Lauded rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and third-year tight end Trey McBride are the top two targets in Arizona's offense but Dortch should see a fair amount out of the slot. The Cardinals face the Bills in Week 1 and while Buffalo's secondary will be a challenge, in 2023 they gave up more fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot versus out wide. Dortch projects to be in WR5 territory in Week 1. While he may be worth a flex in deeper leagues, he should be held out of lineups in 10- or 12-teamers.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison Jr. is set to make his regular season debut on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. During the preseason, the former Buckeye was kept out of harm's way for the most part, seeing only three snaps in all. The fourth overall selection of the NFL Draft, Harrison is already listed as the team's WR1 and is expected to have an immediate impact. The Bills won't make it easy, as they are the only team returning three cornerbacks with coverage grades of 81.0 or higher from PFF. Still, given the combination of talent, draft capital, and the team situation, Arizona should be feeding Harrison as many targets as possible. Harrison looks like a safe WR2 with upside in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals running back Trey Benson finished the preseason with 17 carries for 64 rushing yards. The third-round pick out of Florida State was once believed to be a threat to James Conner's playing time but it appears the rookie will have to wait a while before he makes his mark on the league. In recent comments to the press, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing reaffirmed the team's commitment to using Conner as their primary running back, referring to him as the "bell cow in that room." While Benson's performance during training camp and the preseason solidified his role as Conner's direct backup, not much should be expected of the rookie out of the gate. Given Conner's injury history, Benson is certainly a worthwhile bench stash but the bench is exactly where he should be on fantasy rosters in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
When the Arizona Cardinals open their season on Sunday, it will mark running back James Conner's eighth as a pro, and his fourth with the team. Since joining the Cardinals in 2021, Conner has the eleventh-most carries in the league despite missing seven games due to injury over the last two seasons and starting only six games in 2021. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing recently told the media that Conner is "the bell cow in that room," signaling he will maintain his role despite rookie Trey Benson's presence on the depth chart. In 2023, Conner turned in his first 1,000-yard season and finished with the third-most rushing yards per game (80.0). The Buffalo Bills have a stout defense but last season had a weakness against running backs, allowing 4.4 yards per carry (eighth-worst in the NFL) and 6.33 yards per target (fourth-worst) to the position. Conner can be started as a solid RB2 option in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray won't have it easy in Week 1 when the team kicks off the 2024 season against the Buffalo Bills. Last season, the Bills limited opposing quarterbacks to just 215.2 passing yards per game and a total of 18 passing touchdowns, tied for the third-fewest in the league. However, they lost veteran safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde in the offseason, leaving room for fantasy managers to be optimistic about Murray's production. There's also the fact that Murray isn't shy about using his legs to make a play. Since his rookie season in 2019, he has averaged 37.7 rushing yards per game (fourth-most in the NFL in that span). Murray has a good track record and a stable of young pass-catchers headlined by fourth-overall draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. Despite the tough matchup, Murray should be in starting lineups on Sunday.
From RotoBaller