Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
RTSports Super Bowl Preview
ESPN's Adam Schefter writes that the New England Patriots will be a team to closely follow this offseason, mainly because they have a league-high $110 million in salary cap space. They'll have plenty of financial flexibility to upgrade a roster that needs to improve at almost every position as Mike Vrabel takes over head-coaching duties. They could look to pay Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins $30 million a year while also upgrading their offensive line. Although he had an up-and-down rookie year, quarterback Drake Maye has a chance to develop into a star moving forward, especially if the Patriots give him more help in the passing game. Having the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft will also help New England's cause as they look to add immediate playmakers.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Adam Schefter writes that the Cincinnati Bengals could work to re-sign impending free-agent wide receiver Tee Higgins before he officially becomes a free agent or put the $26 million franchise tag on him, which is lower than what he'd likely receive on the open market. The Bengals could also choose to tag and trade Higgins, but that option would require carrying their cap space past the new league year. Complicating matters is the fact that fellow wideout Ja'Marr Chase is entering the final year of his contract and will be looking to become the highest-paid receiver in NFL history in a deal that could average close to $40 million per year. Cincy has around $46 million in salary cap space, but it remains to be seen if they can pull off retaining both Higgins and Chase. Higgins has 34 touchdowns and two 1,000-yard seasons in five NFL seasons but could become a legitimate WR1 in 2025 if he leaves the Bengals.
From RotoBaller
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that the Miami Dolphins hired former Houston Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik as a senior passing-game coordinator on Tuesday, according to sources. The 37-year-old was a hot head-coaching candidate last offseason after leading Houston to the postseason with then-rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. However, after a decline in offensive production in 2024, the Texans fired Slowik, who will now reunite with former San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders coworker and Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. Darrell Bevell has worked as Miami's quarterbacks coach and pass-game coordinator since 2022, but there will reportedly be no change in his role after the addition of Slowik. The Dolphins offense had a sharp drop in 2024 with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing six games due to a concussion, but they could rebound in 2025 if he can stay healthy all year.
From RotoBaller
When asked whether wide receiver Tyler Lockett would be on the roster for the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said the team is "working through that" and will make a decision in the next month or so. It's not a ringing endorsement for the 32-year-old veteran pass-catcher after he fell to 49 receptions on 74 targets for 600 yards and just two touchdowns in 17 games (14 starts) in 2024 in his 10th year with Seattle. His 600 receiving yards and two TDs were his fewest since the 2017 season, his third year in the league. Lockett will have a $30.8 million salary cap figure this year, and releasing him would save the Seahawks $17 million against the cap. If Lockett doesn't take a pay cut, Seattle will most likely release him after the emergence of second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets are fully expected to move on from quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 2025, but The Athletic's Dianna Russini reports that the team presented the future Hall of Famer with a plan to move forward with him as their QB. The Jets' plan included stipulations about outside media work during the season and required that he attend all mandatory offseason workouts, according to team and league sources. Specifically, Rodgers would no longer be allowed to make regular, paid appearances on "The Pat McAfee Show." Apparently, Rodgers wasn't inclined to agree with those stipulations, and the Jets are expected to release the 41-year-old, who still has one year left on his contract. If the four-time MVP chooses to return for a 21st year in the NFL, it will be with another organization. Rodgers' two-year run in New York was highly disappointing after he tore his Achilles in Week 1 in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Jonathon Brooks (knee) will miss most, if not all, of the 2025 season after his second ACL tear in 2024 as a rookie. In addition to Brooks, the Panthers are expected to cut running back Miles Sanders. It's why The Athletic's Joseph Person has the Panthers taking SMU RB Brashard Smith with a fifth-round selection in his 2025 mock draft. Smith could be a nice change-of-pace option behind starter Chuba Hubbard next year in the Panthers' backfield. The 21-year-old Brooks can be avoided in all single-year fantasy drafts this fall after suffering a gruesome injury in his first year in the NFL. Brooks could have a lengthier recovery after already tearing the same ACL in his final collegiate season at the University of Texas. In three games in 2024, Brooks had nine carries for 22 yards and caught all three of his targets for 23 yards.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers signed kicker Matthew Wright to a reserve/future contract on Tuesday, which is a one-year, non-guaranteed contract that allows players to participate in offseason activities and compete for a roster spot. Wright has spent time with nine NFL organizations, and this is the third time he has signed with Carolina. Overall, the UCF product has connected on 55 of his 63 field goal attempts and 41 of his 43 extra point tries across 21 games with the Steelers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Panthers, 49ers, and Titans. Current Panthers starting kicker Eddy Pineiro ranks third all-time in career field goal percentage (88.095%), so it would be a surprise if Wright wins the job over him this offseason.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) could be ready for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, though his status is uncertain for now. The 26-year-old suffered a torn ACL and MCL in October of last season, so the recovery timeline makes it realistic for him to be ready for the start of the new campaign. Following a 1,400-yard receiving season in 2023, the 49ers signed Aiyuk to a four-year, $120 million contract. Unfortunately, he could only produce 25 receptions for 374 yards and no touchdowns in seven games in 2024. That said, Aiyuk could be a value pick in fantasy football coming off the injury, especially since Deebo Samuel appears to finally be on the way out of San Francisco via trade at some point this offseason.
From RotoBaller
Rumors have been swirling that New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr could be traded or cut this offseason, but NFL insider Adam Schefter said Carr "will probably be the team's QB1 entering 2025." Carr has $10 million in contract guarantees with another $30 million scheduled to kick in on March 15. The organization moving on from the veteran would only save them a few million dollars against the cap, so it's not likely to happen. Since signing with New Orleans ahead of the 2023 campaign, the former Las Vegas Raider has thrown for 6,023 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 27 games. At Fresno State, Carr played against Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, who is now his head coach in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Former Syracuse University quarterback Kyle McCord enjoyed a monster final collegiate season after transferring from Ohio State. The 22-year-old tallied 4,779 passing yards, 37 total touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his lone season with the Orange. Heading into the 2025 NFL Draft, McCord is not viewed as a top-five signal caller in the class, but according to CBS' survey of anonymous NFL scouts, he could be a Day 3 sleeper to monitor. "Poise in the pocket and anticipation," a scout said. "Not flustered by pressure. When he's playing on time, it looks good. Not the best arm or the most mobile but lays it all on the line. Love how he fought through the Ohio State situation and flourished despite a lot of questions about his ability. Real competitor. That chip on his shoulder will be there his whole career." In one of the weaker quarterback classes in recent memory, it wouldn't be a shocker if he sneaks his way into the fourth round of April's draft. If he lands behind a shaky starting quarterback, he could be worth a stash in deeper Superflex dynasty formats.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers owner Jed York reaffirmed the team's commitment to keeping quarterback Brock Purdy around long-term. "I know we want Brock to be here for a long time and we'll do everything we can to make that work," York said Monday. After selecting Purdy with the final pick of the 2022 draft, he has led them to two playoff appearances, including a Super Bowl, in his three years in the league. Now eligible for a new contract, the 49ers have remained committed to giving the 25-year-old a big contract he deserves. Both sides have been in talks on an extension, with Purdy saying last month that he wanted something "done quick" so that negotiations didn't extend into the offseason program. Even though Purdy's numbers dipped in 2024, he could land a deal worth more than $55 million per season. Purdy had career-lows in completion percentage (65.9), passer rating (96.1) and TD-to-interception ratio (20-12).
From RotoBaller
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is finalizing a deal with the New Orleans Saints on Tuesday to become their new head coach. This was the expectation all along, but nothing could become official until after Super Bowl LIX, which Moore's Eagles won 40-22 over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Eagles averaged 27.2 points per game in the regular season (seventh in the league) and a league-best 36.3 points per game in the playoffs under the 36-year-old Moore. He will be the first Saints head coach to come from outside the building since Sean Payton stepped away following the 2021 season. Previous defensive coordinator Dennis Allen was promoted to head coach, but the Saints fired him midway through the 2024 season. Unlike Allen, Moore will be a first-time head coach with an offensive mind.
From RotoBaller
Impending free-agent middle linebacker Nick Bolton indicated that he'd like to re-sign with the Kansas City Chiefs after the team's 40-22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday in Super Bowl LIX. "But I've been here (in Missouri) for seven years it feels like home. Welcomed me with open arms as a little 18-year-old with short hair, no facial hair. Let me go through growing pains and find out my own identity, and it feels like home," Bolton said. As these things always do, it will come down to money and whether Bolton is looking to become one of the highest-paid linebackers in the league. The former second-rounder has won two Super Bowl rings in his four seasons with KC while also racking up 458 total tackles (32 for loss), five sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery TD, 15 pass breakups and four interceptions during the regular season. The 24-year-old has been a big reason for the Chiefs' success on defense.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders are expected to be very aggressive this offseason as they look to improve their defense, and they'll have more than $68 million in salary cap space. Washington will certainly be a team to watch if the Cleveland Browns give in to All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett's trade demands, but The Athletic's Zac Jackson also believes they'll be a candidate to trade for Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II (hamstring). If the Browns were to trade Newsome this offseason, it would open up around $13 million in 2025 cap space and allow Cleveland to add pieces to their roster, potentially even a veteran starting quarterback. The 24-year-old Newsome ended his 2024 season on Injured Reserve due to a hamstring injury and finished with a career-low 27 tackles (24 solo), one interception and five pass breakups in 13 games (three starts).
From RotoBaller
Once the New Orleans Saints officially hire Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore as their next head coach, The Athletic's Michael Silver expects Moore to have strong interest in former Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley as his defensive coordinator. Moore served as Staley's offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023, and Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams' No. 1 defense in 2020. In his three seasons as the Chargers' head coach, Staley was unable to make the playoffs while going 24-24. He was the assistant head coach for the San Francisco 49ers under Kyle Shanahan in 2024. In addition to Staley, the Saints are expected to be interested in Tampa Bay Buccaneers outside linebackers coach George Edwards for their defensive-coordinator position.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Zac Jackson writes that the Cleveland Browns might only be able to afford players like the Atlanta Falcons' Kirk Cousins or Minnesota Vikings' Daniel Jones as their bridge quarterback this offseason. According to Over the Cap, Cleveland is projected to be $38.6 million over the 2025 salary cap, but the next anticipated restructure of QB Deshaun Watson's contract will clear up around $36 million in cap space. The status of QBs Derek Carr, Geno Smith and Russell Wilson will dictate how expensive Cousins and Jones will be this offseason. Cousins isn't a free agent, but the Atlanta Falcons probably will find it hard to trade him because of the $10 million roster bonus he's due after the start of the new league year. Cousins has familiarity with Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski from their days with the Vikings. The Browns are expected to draft a QB at No. 2 overall this year, but Cousins could make sense as a bridge starter if he becomes a free agent.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers gave wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. permission to seek a trade this offseason. Samuel is under contract for one more season, and his deal includes a $15 million option bonus. Along with his drop in production in 2024, it could suppress Samuel's trade market, but NBC Sports Bay Area's Matt Maiocco lists the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans as a few teams that could be interested in acquiring Samuel from the Niners. The 29-year-old former second-rounder had career-lows of 3.4 catches and 44.7 receiving yards per game in 15 contests in 2024, with his per-rush average also dropping to 3.2 yards. Although Samuel is much more of an injury risk with declining production, he does have 42 total TDs in six NFL seasons and will draw interest from receiver-needy teams as a trade target.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins caught two passes for 18 yards and a touchdown in the 22-40 Super Bowl loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The 32-year-old made his Super Bowl debut in his 13th season in the league. Despite finding the end zone, Hopkins did not do much to impress in this contest. The Eagles defense suffocated the Chiefs offense, holding them to 23 total yards in the first half. The veteran receiver also caught a two-point conversion after the game's final touchdown. Hopkins finished third on the team in targets and receiving yards, behind Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. Hopkins was acquired by the team at the trade deadline and will be a free agent this offseason. It remains to be seen where Hopkins will land, but he demonstrated his ability to be a reliable WR2/3 on a competing team.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught four passes for 39 yards in the 22-40 Super Bowl loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The 35-year-old needed two touchdowns to tie Jerry Rice's playoff touchdown record, but failed to catch any in his last two games. The Eagles defense swarmed Patrick Mahomes on nearly every drop back, making it challenging to execute the passing game. Kelce was targeted six times, second on the team behind Xavier Worthy. The veteran tight end was unable to make a considerable difference in the game and his future in the league is uncertain after this loss. Kelce is a three-time Super Bowl champion and has a case to be the greatest tight end in NFL history. Whether he decides to return next season or not, Kelce is destined for the Hall of Fame.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy caught eight passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns in the 22-40 Super Bowl loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Worthy was the lone bright spot for Kansas City in this contest, catching multiple 50-yard passes from Mahomes. The 21-year-old showed off his speed on the game's final touchdown, beating two safeties to the end zone for a 50-yard score. The speedy rookie led the team in catches, receiving yards, and targets. Worthy took center stage with Travis Kelce underperforming in this contest. Worthy put together one of the best Super Bowl performances by a rookie, but most of his production came well after this game was out of hand. Despite suffering this huge loss, Worthy showed that he can perform at the highest level and should be poised for more growth next season.
From RotoBaller