Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 17
Every player has their off games. Look no further than Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (elbow/shoulder). The favorite to win MVP racked up 93.2 fantasy points in Weeks 15 and 16, plus over 20 in nine straight games. That made his dud against New England (184 total yards and one touchdown) even more surprising. Allen noted that he suffered an elbow contusion against the Patriots but does not carry an injury designation into the weekend. Allen should return to form against another divisional foe, the New York Jets. While New York's defense is just outside the top 10 for fewest fantasy points allowed to the position, they've surrendered the second-most rushing touchdowns (seven) to quarterbacks. If a fantasy manager survived Allen's disappointing stat line from a week ago, they shouldn't be shy about starting him again. Allen is a clear-cut QB1 for Week 17.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock (shoulder) upgraded to a full practice session on Friday and was removed from the final injury report for Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Even though the Colts have been a strong matchup for opposing QBs this year -- they've allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position through 15 games played -- we seriously hope that no fantasy managers in superflex leagues are having to resort to using Lock as their QB2 with a championship on the line. The 28-year-old threw two more interceptions (both were returned for touchdowns) in last week's blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons and he just has not been good in a starting role for the G-Men let go of Daniel Jones. Lock has completed a career-low 52.7% of his pass attempts with one TD and four picks in his six games (three starts). He can run a little bit, but Lock should be avoided if at all possible.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo (foot, hamstring) was limited in practice for the second straight day this week on Friday. Guerendo, who did not play in the Week 16 loss to the Miami Dolphins, may need to upgrade to a full practice on Saturday to avoid carrying a questionable designation into Monday night's Week 17 showdown in what will be a rematch of last year's NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions. If the 24-year-old back is feeling good enough to play on Monday, he should return to lead-back duties for San Fran, albeit in a bad matchup. Although they are pretty banged up now, the Lions defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game to RBs in 15 games in 2024. However, in the last five weeks, they've been in the middle of the pack in that same category. If Guerendo is active in Week 17, he'll be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3/flex in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) was added to the Week 17 injury report on Thursday after putting in a limited session. Thielen was again limited in Friday's practice but was removed from the final injury report and will play on Sunday against the division-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even if rookie Xavier Legette (hip, wrist) returns to the field, Thielen should continue to be quarterback Bryce Young's top target in the passing game. The Buccaneers defense has been a top-10 fantasy matchup for receivers in 2024, allowing 2,383 receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns in 15 games. The 34-year-old is no longer in his prime like he was in Minnesota, but he's developed a strong chemistry with Young the last two years and caught his third touchdown of the year in the Week 16 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Thielen has a solid floor as a WR3/flex in Week 17 in fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers (toe) is listed as questionable for Week 17 against the visiting Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but head coach Brian Daboll is "hopeful" that the 21-year-old first-rounder out of LSU will play. Nabers didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday but returned to a limited session on Friday. The impressive first-year wideout has dealt with his fair share of nagging injuries in his first year in the NFL, but he's only missed two games due to a concussion. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said that Nabers looked good in practice on Friday and is expected to play this weekend. Fantasy managers will want to check back for confirmation on Sunday morning that he's active, but if he is, as is expected, he should be left in lineups on championship week as a WR2 with WR1 upside against the Colts.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert has had an up-and-down year in 2024. Before Miami's Week 9 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, he was considered an essential part of the ground game. Since the crucial fumble the week prior, he has received 34 touches, with the backfield touches dominated by fellow back De'Von Achane. In Week 17, he and the Dolphins will travel to take on the Cleveland Browns in a matchup where the weather conditions will play a factor in the game plan. With rain and harsh winds in the forecast, the play calling could favor the run heavily. That said, it remains tough to trust Mostert with the few opportunities he's had. He's best left on the bench for championship week.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs is coming off of his third consecutive game with exactly three catches, although those nine catches came on 19 targets. Fellow wideout Michael Pittman Jr. seemed like Anthony Richardson's preferred option based on his 13 receptions over the last three games, but looking closer, Pittman Jr. had the same amount of targets as Downs over that stretch (19). While Downs' aDOT of 7.12 yards contrasts with Pittman Jr.'s 11.26, they are basically the Colts' 1A and 1B receivers for fantasy purposes this week. That is, if Anthony Richardson is under center for the Colts, but after missing practice all week with back and foot injuries, the second-year QB is at risk of missing Week 17's matchup with the Giants. If that happens, Joe Flacco will slide in as QB, and the 39-year-old showed more rapport with Downs than Pittman Jr., with Downs logging a 36-338-1 line (five games) compared to Pittman Jr.'s 13-139-1 line (four games) with the veteran at the helm. Neither one makes for a great play this week, as both look like high-end Flex options with Richardson calling the plays, but Downs has WR3 upside if Flacco gets the start.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings defense will square off in a difficult matchup with the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. The Vikings' D has been a top unit this season -; forcing turnovers at one of the higher rates in the league while allowing the third-fewest points (18.4) and second-lowest rushing total per contest (87.1 YPG). However, they'll get their toughest test in quite some time, with a Packers offense scoring the seventh-most points per game (27.5) in the NFL. Green Bay has been particularly effective in rushing the rock (147.3 YPG -; fourth-most), so it should be an excellent bout of strength versus strength. For what it's worth, Minnesota intercepted quarterback Jordan Love three times after his return from injury in Week 4. Still, Love tossed four TDs against them. The unit ranks as RotoBaller's D/ST10 ahead of fantasy championship weekend.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has been one of the best kickers in fantasy football over the last several games. He has scored the most fantasy points by any kicker since Week 8 and has made his last 23 field goal attempts. In Week 17, he and the Dolphins will travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns in brutal kicking conditions. There is projected to be a 50% chance of rain and 25+ mph gusts at kick-off. To make matters worse, the Browns allow the lowest field goal percentage in the entire NFL at 69%. As hot as Sanders has been, he is best left on the bench for Week 17. He comes in as the 18th-ranked kicker in this week's RotoBaller rankings.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Jamison Crowder is set for an increased role on Sunday evening against the Atlanta Falcons. With Dyami Brown (hamstring) ruled out, Crowder now sits as the No.3 wide receiver on the depth chart. Crowder played the hero last weekend, catching two of his four targets for two touchdowns, including the game-winning score in the final minutes. This was the first time this season the veteran wideout saw at least four targets in a single game. With Noah Brown (kidney) and Dyami Brown both sidelined, Crowder should be set to see a similar target share once again. Crowder is worth a look as a sneaky play in DFS but should not be started in any season-long format despite facing an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the third-most PPR points to opposing wideouts this season given he has had minimal fantasy production all season long.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz is a risky play this weekend facing the Atlanta Falcons. Ertz suffered a concussion during their Week 15 victory over the New Orleans Saints but was able to turn the corner in time to suit up last weekend. However, the veteran tight end caught just one of his two targets in this contest. This was only the second time this season Ertz caught just one pass in a single game. Ertz opened this week as a non-participant with a shoulder injury. However, he was able to log two straight full practices the following days, which suggests this injury is minor. Fantasy managers in deeper formats should view Ertz as a low-end TE1 in PPR formats, as he has averaged 10.3 PPR points over his past five games but has had a minimal role the past two weeks. He will face an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points to opposing tight ends this season.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders kicker Zane Gonzalez is a risky streaming option in Week 17 when he faces the Atlanta Falcons. Gonzalez has filled in for the injured Austin Seibert (groin), who has been on the IR since Week 12. As the replacement option, Gonzalez has gone 3-for-5 on attempts and a perfect 14-for-14 on extra points. He holds a career 79.7% FG conversion rate and a 95.3% conversion rate on extra points. Even though he has struggled to find consistency throughout his career, facing a weak Atlanta defense, the Commanders may have put Gonzalez in ample scoring situations on Sunday evening. In 14+ team formats, Gonzalez is a viable streaming option. However, fantasy managers in shallower leagues should look for a more stable and proven option.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders defense should be viewed as a desperation streaming option this weekend facing the Atlanta Falcons. Last weekend, they could not contain Saquon Barkley as he tallied 150 yards and two scores on the ground. This week they have another tough matchup ahead of them facing Bijan Robinson. However, the pass rush led by Dante Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu has been very productive, tallying seven sacks over their past two games. Outside of Robinson, they will face a passing attack led by rookie Michael Penix Jr. Penix made his career start last weekend. He was not tasked to do much against a weak Giants team, as he threw for just 202 yards on 27 attempts. However, this weekend, the Falcons may need to push the ball in the air to keep up with a potent Commanders offense. With Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) ruled out, the Commanders secondary will be undermanned, facing Drake London and Darnell Mooney. As a result, this defense carries a decent floor with projected sack production but little upside when facing a tough Atlanta offense.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has had the best season of his career and has become one of the most crucial pieces to the offense. Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE1 and is fifth in touchdowns on the year. Week 17 presents a matchup with the Cleveland Browns, who rank 11th in fantasy points and 12th in yards per game to opposing tight ends. To make matters worse, there is a 50% chance of rain and 25+ mph winds projected in Cleveland at kickoff. However, we've seen him beat less-than-ideal conditions and be a safety blanket for Tua Tagovailoa. Start him as a solid TE1 in the championship week. He comes in as RotoBaller's TE6 in the Week 17 rankings.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels should be locked into all lineups on Sunday evening when he faces the Atlanta Falcons. Daniels is coming off one of the most impressive wins of his rookie campaign, where he threw five scores and tallied 339 all-purpose yards in a comeback victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Over his past four contests, Daniels has found the end zone 14 times (12 passing, two rushing) and averaged just over 300 total yards per game. This is a great sign for the rookie QB as he hit a two-game skid during Weeks 10 and 11, where he averaged just 13.0 PPR points per game. On Sunday night, the Commanders will host the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the eighth-most PPR points to opposing QBs. He is a must-start in all formats.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. is looking to bounce-back facing the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night after a disappointing Week 16 output. Last weekend against Philadelphia, Robinson ran for just 24 yards on ten attempts and lost two fumbles. Even though the Commanders were trailing for most of the contest, Robinson was not involved much at all. However, he should be in a good position to rebound in Week 17. With Austin Ekeler (concussion) on the injured reserve, Robinson should be deployed as a three-down back. During Weeks 11 through 15 (four games), Robinson found the end zone twice and averaged 74.0 total yards per game. He should be started in all formats as a solid RB2 facing the Falcons, who have allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs this season.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Jeremy McNichols should not be started in any format this weekend when he faces the Atlanta Falcons. Even with Austin Ekeler (concussion) sidelined, McNichols has only seen a light uptick in opportunities. Instead, Brian Robinson Jr. has taken on more passing work. Over the past two weeks, McNichols has logged just four total rushing attempts and five total receptions for just 22 combined yards. Across the first 13 games of the campaign, McNichols flashed some solid upside, tallying 5.0 yards per carry but has rarely been given enough work to an impact. Given his minimal role in the Washington offense, fantasy managers should look for an alternative option as he is only projected to see a handful of attempts.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus is set for an increased role on Sunday evening with Dyami Brown (hamstring) ruled out. Last weekend, Zacchaeus made the most of his opportunities by bringing in five of his eight targets for 70 yards and two scores. Zacchaeus saw his role increase once Brown exited early with a hamstring injury. Heading into Week 17, Zacchaeus sits as the lone No.2 option in the wide receiver room behind Terry McLaurin with Noah Brown (kidney) on the IR. Over his past three games, Zaccheaus has seen an average of 5.0 targets per game and has averaged 40.0 yards per game. Facing an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the third-most PPR points to opposing wideouts makes him a viable flex option in deeper 3WR formats.
From RotoBaller
After falling flat with a zero-catch performance in Week 15, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney bounced back nicely last week with a five-catch effort on six targets, racking up 82 yards in the process. It was the seventh time this season that the 27-year-old caught at least five passes in a game and he showed some nice rapport with Michael Penix Jr. in his first start under center. Despite those results, it may be tougher sledding against the Commanders in Week 17 that has been better against the pass in recent weeks, and with a shot at the playoffs on the line for the Falcons, expect them to deploy a more conservative approach via the ground attack for as long they can in this one. As such, Mooney projects as a low-end WR3 in this one with perhaps some slight upside in PPR leagues, but he also carries some downside risk with the inexperience at QB.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings kicker Will Reichard gets an unfavorable spot against the visiting Green Bay Packers this Sunday. The rookie has been excellent since returning from a quad injury in Week 14. Reichard missed a field goal that Sunday in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, but he's otherwise been perfect over that stretch -; knocking through all other 17 kicks (five field goals). The Packers' D has been solid this year, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (19.1). Still, the Vikings' offense has been among the best in the league -; clocking in at the ninth-most points scored per outing (26.4). Reichard made all five of his kicks in the two team's first meeting and should again be afforded point opportunities in the divisional clash. He's RotoBaller's K9 in Week 17's rankings.
From RotoBaller