RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 33 pass attempts (70%) for 196 yards and three touchdowns in the 21-30 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Mahomes passed for under 200 yards in this contest but made up for it with three passing scores for the second time this season. Mahomes also threw multiple interceptions for the third time this season, including a game-ending pick in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. The Chiefs quarterback also finished the game with zero rushing yards for the first time this season. Mahomes has continued to be a disappointing fantasy asset, especially in the team's last two games with tough matchups. The veteran quarterback will look to bounce back from the team's first loss next week against the Carolina Panthers, who rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. Mahomes will likely be ranked as a low-end QB1 next week, with one of the most favorable matchups for quarterbacks.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua looked great in Sunday's victory over the New England Patriots. The wideout finished Week 11 by leading his team on the receiving end, pulling in seven of his nine targets for 123 yards. He also finally found the end zone, catching a 12-yard toss from Matthew Stafford in the second quarter. With Nacua coming off his second 100-yard outing this season, he'll look to keep it going against a tough Eagles defense in a Sunday Night Football meeting between the clubs.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught two passes for eight yards in the 21-30 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs were handed their first loss of the season, and Kelce was the target on the game-ending interception. The veteran tight end finished the game with just four targets against the stingy Buffalo defense. Despite being the focal point of the Kansas City passing attack every week, Kelce was held in check in this contest. The 35-year-old will look to bounce back in a favorable matchup against the Carolina Panthers next week. The Panthers rank 32nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season, so Kelce should have his way against them. Despite this underwhelming performance, Kelce should still be considered a top-tier tight-end option for the rest of the season.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams had 86 yards off 15 carries in Sunday's win over the Patriots. It wasn't a horrible showing from the 24-year-old. However, after Williams found the end zone in seven consecutive games this season, he hasn't scored in any of the Rams' previous three contests. While the team leaned on him more while Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were on the shelf, fantasy managers are hoping he'll get back on track versus the Eagles in Week 12, a team that has played well against the run all year.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson put himself back on the fantasy map on Sunday, totaling three TDs, one via pass and two via rush, in a tight 28-27 win over the Jets. Coming into the game with a 44.4% completion rate, the 22-year-old completed 20 of 30 pass attempts (66.7%) for 272 yards and a touchdown. While it was an improvement for sure, especially given that he did not throw an interception, it wasn't pretty at times and the former first-round draft pick fumbled twice, losing one of them. The 6-foot-4 signal-caller added 10 rushes for 32 yards and two scores, finishing the day well within the top 10 at the position in fantasy scoring. The Colts and Richardson will have a tough matchup at home next week against the Lions, but it may be fruitful for fantasy if they are playing from behind all day.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver DJ Charkand tight end Hayden Hurst won't play in Sunday night's game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Both players are healthy. However, with receivers Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and tight end Will Dissly all active, the move was made to give Hurst and Chark the night off. But considering Hurst has only seven catches and Chark doesn't have any this season, their absences won't have much of an impact on fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, adding 32 rushing yards and two more scores in a win against the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: This may have been the best game he's played in his young career. After being benched for Joe Flacco, Richardson looked energized today and also in control, something we hadn't seen much of this season. The Jets area. mess, but this was a huge step in the right direction and should put his dynasty value drop to a sudden halt.
Dynasty | Jets running back Breece Hall had 78 rushing yards, seven catches, 43 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a loss against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: The Jets looked competitive in this one and much of the credit should go to Hall, who finally looked like a RB1 in fantasy leagues today. While this is just one game, Hall could be poised for a better second half of the year as the Jets look to get him involved since their Plan A has clearly not worked this season. His dynasty buy low window may have closed this afternoon.
Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy had six catches for 142 yards and a touchdown in the Browns loss to the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: Jeudy had an 89-yard touchdown, but still had a big game without it as he had a team-leading 11 targets. He came into the game with a 33/418/1 line in nine games, so you could say this came out of nowhere. Jeudy clearly has a lot of talent and is still relatively young, but we'll need to see a few more big games before recommending him in lineups moving forward.
Dynasty | Saints hybrid player Taysom Hill had 138 rushing yards, eight catches, 50 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in a win against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: Well, here we go again. With Dennis Allen out in New Orleans, it seems the Saints may be willing to use Hill in a variety of crazy ways again. Today certainly worked out as Hill had one of his signature epic performances. If the Saints decide to deploy him this aggressively moving forward, he's going to be a big-time player who could decide some fantasy leagues this season. Stay tuned.
Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 50 rushing yards in a loss to the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: Chubb had a good matchup on paper and posted a healthy 4.5 yards per carry on the day. However, a negative game script put him on the bench for most of the game as Jameis Winston threw the ball 46 times on the day. Chubb has been decent since returning, but the Browns offense just isn't one to rely on at the moment. He should be on dynasty benches for the time being.
Dynasty | Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua had seven catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in a win over New England. Dynasty Analysis: Nacua has missed much of the season, but he looked like his rookie self today, making a number of contested catches. He and Cooper Kupp (6/106/2) dominated targets with 19 combined and both look like viable fantasy starters moving forward, with Nacua having both more short and long-term upside. He's a solid hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers had 13 catches on 16 targets for 126 yards and one touchdown in a loss against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: He's pretty good. Bowers was option 1, 2, and 3 on the day as the Raiders seem to be content just riding their rookie tight end each and every week. There are some veteran tight ends who could keep up with his production, but Bowers is quickly becoming the TE1 in dynasty leagues and it's really not close. He's nearly untouchable on rosters at this point.
Dynasty | Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith had six catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: Smith has always had a lot of talent, but it just hasn't translated to the field consistently. Today was different as Smith tied for the team lead in targets and made the most of them. He's still more TE2 than TE1, but the Dolphins are starting to roll again, making him a player with second half upside as we move through November. Smith is a decent hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Titans wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had two catches for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Titans loss to the Vikings. Dynasty Analysis: Westbrook-Ikhine had a 98-yard touchdown reception in this one, the longest play in the NFL this season. He has now amazingly scored in five-of-six games, despite having fewer than 300 receiving yards and only 15 catches on the season. The ultimate boom or bust in dynasty leagues right now, it's hard to see this streak continuing for a player getting targeted this little. Still, it's hard to argue against his big-play ability and that should keep him on dynasty rosters for the moment.
Dynasty | Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 24-of-29 passes for 412 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a demolition of the Jaguars. Dynasty Analysis: Jacksonville was no match for Detroit in this one as Goff bounced back from a five-interception performance to post a four-touchdown day with no mistakes. Goff posted season highs all around and the Lions looked like one of the best teams in the NFL by far today, even if they were playing what could be the worst one. Goff looks like a solid hold in dynasty leagues and a back-end QB1 moving forward.
Dynasty | Jaguars running back Travis Etienne had 27 rushing yards, three catches and six receiving yards in a loss against Detroit. Dynasty Analysis: The Jags had no chance in this one, but this was still a disappointing day for Etienne considering Tank Bigsby was out. Etienne has had a simply terrible season thus far and his dynasty value is sufferering. At this point, he belongs on fantasy benches and may not have real value again until next season. Yes, it's that bad.
Dynasty | Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Jaguars. Dynasty Analysis: ASB caught every one of his targets and could have honestly went for more than 200 yards today if the game was even remotely competitive. Whlie Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson get a lot of the headlines, there are few players better to have in dynasty leagues than St. Brown, who has looked every bit the part of a dominant wide receiver in dynasty leagues all season. He's untouchable at the moment.
Dynasty | Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams completed 23-of-31 passes for 231 yards, adding 70 rushing yards in a tough 20-19 loss to the Packers. Dynasty Analysis: Williams did all he could in this one as the Bears had a potential game-winning field goal blocked at the end. It was a terrible disappointing day for Williams and Chicago lost their fourth straight game. There were rumblings about Williams being benched this week, but those should stop after today's performance. While he still has room to grow, this was a significant day for him as he simply played about as well as you could have expected. Any dynasty value drop he's had over the past couple of weeks should slow down now.
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (neck, personal) will play on Sunday night against the Chargers. The 29-year-old was listed as questionable after missing practice on Thursday and Friday. But it's certainly good news for Cincinnati, considering the Bengals defense has struggled, allowing 26.2 points per game throughout the 2024-25 campaign.
From RotoBaller
