Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (biceps) was limited in practice on Thursday for the second straight day this week. The Bills opened Milano's 21-day practice window to return from Injured Reserve on Wednesday as he ramps up from a torn biceps that he suffered back in training camp on Aug. 15. The 30-year-old linebacker will need more time to recover and is unlikely to be officially activated from IR in order to play in Week 11 against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, but it's a positive development for Buffalo's defense that he's back on the practice field. Milano was a first-team All-Pro just two years ago, but a leg injury limited his effectiveness and availability in 2023, as he played in just five games and finished with 30 tackles (18 solo), no sacks and two interceptions. The Bills will be hoping Milano can return to his All-Pro level of play down the stretch in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (ankle) returned to the team's practice and was a full-go on Thursday and looked to be just fine while running the football. Harris apparently picked up an ankle injury in the Week 10 win over the Washington Commanders on Sunday and was held out of the first practice of the week on Wednesday. It appears the Steelers were just giving the 26-year-old a day of rest on Wednesday, and he should be all systems go for Sunday's big divisional clash against the Baltimore Ravens. Jaylen Warren (back) didn't practice on Thursday and could be in danger of missing this weekend's game, which would give Harris even more fantasy upside as an RB2. The Ravens defense hasn't been the greatest matchup for RBs from a fantasy perspective this year, but Harris should see enough volume to keep him on the RB2 map.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (wrist) was spotted at the team's practice on Thursday after he was a non-participant in the first practice of the week on Wednesday. Hill was most likely limited on Thursday, but the fact that he was back at practice at all is a good sign that he'll be ready to go for the Week 11 game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium. The 30-year-old is reportedly dealing with a torn tendon in his left wrist, but he hasn't missed any time because of it, and the Dolphins don't believe the injury is affecting his performance. The Cheetah's numbers have improved since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion three weeks ago, and although Hill probably isn't 100%, he still has WR1 upside as long as he's active. Hill will be facing a Raiders defense that has been surprisingly stingy against opposing pass-catchers in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper (wrist), who has missed the last two games, said he feels like he'll be able to play in Week 11 against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Cooper was officially listed as limited in Thursday's practice for the second straight day this week. ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg reports that Cooper caught some passes from quarterback Josh Allen, which was a step up from what he had been doing the last couple of weeks. Nothing is certain yet, but the 30-year-old appears to be trending in the right direction to play this weekend. If Cooper does return, he should be heavily involved in the passing attack against a tough Chiefs defense with rookie Keon Coleman (wrist) already ruled out. In his debut with Buffalo on Oct. 20 against the Titans, Cooper caught four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) is practicing on Thursday ahead of the Monday Night Football matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Collins, who led the NFL in receiving yards before picking up a hamstring injury in Week 5, was activated off of Injured Reserve last week but did not face the Detroit Lions in Week 10. Fantasy managers itching to get Collins back in their starting lineups will need to monitor his practice status on Friday and Saturday, and hopefully, the team will remove him from the injury report or rule him out so his status is not up in the air for the last game of the Week 11 slate. If Collins plays, he is a must-start option against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to WRs this year. His upside is worth the risk of his injury holding him back.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (quad) was seen at Thursday's practice in uniform after logging a limited session on Wednesday. The 2020 second-round pick has missed each of the last three games after suffering a quad injury in practice, but his return to action brings optimism for his potential availability in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Before suffering the injury, Higgins posted at least 11.2 half-PPR fantasy points in his last three games. He has averaged nine targets per game in six contests this year, so fantasy managers are surely itching to get him back in lineups. It's too early to tell if he will play on Sunday Night Football, so fantasy managers should monitor his practice status on Friday before making any start-or-sit decisions.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby (ankle) is not practicing on Thursday due to an ankle injury. The second-year ball carrier out of Auburn did not practice on Wednesday either, so he could be trending toward missing Sunday's contest against the Detroit Lions. Bigsby had two weeks of at least 23 half-PPR fantasy points in October, but he is trending down over the last few games. If he doesn't play in Week 11, Travis Etienne Jr. should see a ton of touches, but with Mac Jones at the helm and Detroit having a top defense against the run, his upside would be limited. That said, he could see additional receiving work and command enough volume to contend for an RB2 finish on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle) and linebacker Kyle Van Noy (illness) returned to practice on Thursday after missing Wednesday's session with an ankle injury and illness, respectively. Hamilton suffered a sprained ankle in the Week 10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, but his return to practice is promising for his potential availability against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11. The 2022 first-round pick out of Notre Dame has tallied 71 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and seven passes defended this season. He is the No. 4 defensive back in fantasy points this year. Van Noy has seven sacks this season and is on pace to record a career-high in sacks in his second year in Baltimore. With a key AFC North game on Sunday, expect both defenders to push to play.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (neck) is not at practice on Thursday after logging a limited session on Wednesday. The 2023 first-team All-Pro is dealing with a neck injury that could affect his Week 11 availability for Sunday night's contest against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, his Friday practice status and game designation will tell us whether he's at real risk of being inactive. The 29-year-old has 11 sacks in 10 games this season after logging 17.5 sacks in 2023. Needless to say, he's a critical piece of the Bengals' struggling defense, and his absence against Justin Herbert's ascending offense would be significant.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Colts will start Anthony Richardson at quarterback this week. Dynasty Analysis: Richardson will get another chance to show he can be the future for Indianapolis after Joe Flacco failed to spark the team after he was benched a few weeks ago. This will be a very important stretch of games coming for Richardson (and his dynasty managers) as this may very well be his last chance to prove he's the future for the Colts. His dynasty value is slipping and will plummet if he fails. Stay tuned.
Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring/ankle) is practicing for a second straight day since being designated to return from the Injured Reserve list. The rookie out of USC was placed on IR with a hamstring injury after Week 2 and is now also listed with an ankle ailment. It is to be determined if Lloyd will be activated to play in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears, but his return to practice is promising. The team's third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft could compete for the RB2 role behind Josh Jacobs when he's back in action, but it would be surprising if he's on the fantasy football radar unless Jacobs gets banged up. His rookie season has not gone to plan, but he could at least enter next season as the top handcuff for Jacobs in a great offense.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) was not present at practice on Thursday for the second straight day this week after injuring his knee in the Week 10 win over the Indianapolis Colts. Kincaid is probably going to have to put in some work in Friday's practice to even have a shot at suiting up this Sunday when the Bills take on the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Fantasy managers should already be preparing a backup plan in case the 25-year-old is ruled out this weekend. In that scenario, Dawson Knox would be on the TE1 radar, especially if receiver Amari Cooper (wrist) misses his third straight game. Rookie wideout Keon Coleman (wrist) has already been ruled out. Fantasy managers were expecting more from Kincaid in his sophomore campaign, as he's currently averaging 6.5 half-PPR points per game, which ranks 22nd among all TEs.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (shoulder) was the team's only player that did not take part in practice on Thursday. LaPorta suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder in the team's Week 10 win over the Houston Texans and is in danger of missing this Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars after missing practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. The 23-year-old second-year tight end will need to get onto the practice field on Friday to give himself a shot to suit up in Week 11. If he is unable to do so, expect Brock Wright to see an increased role on offense for Detroit, putting him in play as a TE2 sleeper in a game the Lions are favored by two touchdowns. It's been a disappointing sophomore year for LaPorta fantasy-wise after he finished as the TE1 in 2023 -- he's currently the TE11 in half-PPR scoring -- but he did find the end zone for the third time in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
There was no sign of New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams (illness, wrist) during the early portion of practice open to the media on Thursday. Adams has been under the weather this week but is also dealing with a wrist injury and did not practice with the rest of the team on Wednesday. The 31-year-old veteran's status is now in question heading into a Week 11 tilt against the visiting Indianapolis Colts this Sunday. If he is unable to return to practice on Friday and play against Indy, Garrett Wilson, who leads the NFL with 100 targets, would receive extra attention from the Colts' defense with Xavier Gipson and rookie Malachi Corley starting in three-receiver sets. In his four starts with New York since being acquired from the Raiders, Adams has 20 catches, 206 yards and one touchdown. When active, he's a must-start for fantasy managers despite more frustrations from the Jets.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receivers coach Wes Welker said that wideout Tyreek Hill's performance is not being affected by his wrist injury. Hill and Jaylen Waddle "are starting to realize how perfect we have to be" to work their way open with the way opposing teams are defending them and jamming them at the line of scrimmage. The Cheetah recently acknowledged that he's playing through a torn ligament in his wrist, but apparently it's not negatively affecting him on game days. The 30-year-old scored his first touchdown in Monday night's win over the Los Angeles Rams since the season opener, but he also had just three catches for 16 yards. In the two previous games since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned, Hill's production improved (10 catches for 152 yards). Hill's numbers most certainly are down in 2024, but he remains a must-start in fantasy with Tagovailoa back.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is likely to play next season. Dynasty Analysis: Rodgers indicated as much this week and while he's one of the most unpredictable players (and maybe people) out there, it makes sense. In short, it's hard to see Rodgers accepting this season as his last after the Jets have failed to reach any of their expectations, fired their coach, and dealt with massive turmoil. At this point, Rodgers is a QB2 or bench player unless things really turn around and his dynasty value is going to continue to fall.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy had a second surgery to repair damage in his knee. Dynasty Analysis: While this may sound terrible, it really isn't that concerning as it won't affect his timeline much. The bigger concern for McCarthy managers is the fact Sam Darnold has played really well this season, making McCarthy more of a luxury at the moment. Regardless, he should get his chance to start next season on time unless Darnold really sets the league on fire here over the second half of the season and forces Minnesota to change course. His dynasty value is stable.
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy gave running back Rico Dowdle a ringing endorsement on Thursday, saying, "He's the lead back. Rico needs to touch the ball." Fellow backfield mate Ezekiel Elliott returned from a one-game absence for disciplinary reasons in the Week 10 blowout loss to the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles, with Dowdle seeing 12 carries for 53 yards and catching all three of his targets for three yards. The 26-year-old likely would have had a much better day had the Cowboys not fallen behind by a significant margin on the scoreboard. Zeke had six carries for 22 yards and lost a fumble. Dowdle played 52% of the offensive snaps compared to Elliott's 22%. Dowdle will continue to be Dallas' lead RB, but with quarterback Dak Prescott (shoulder) now done for the year, it makes Dowdle a lower-upside RB3/flex for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (back) was back on the practice field for the second straight day on Thursday. Pittman has been dealing with a back injury for a while now and missed the Week 10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. However, he was listed as a full practice participant on Wednesday, signaling that he could return this Sunday to face the New York Jets, as long as he doesn't suffer a setback. It's good news for the Colts, but fantasy managers will justifiably have some reservations about starting the 27-year-old wideout this weekend, especially with struggling second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson getting his starting job back against a formidable defense. Pittman is Indy's WR1 when healthy, but it's led to only a 30-366-2 line through nine games in 2024. If he's active against the Jets, Pittman should be viewed as more of a touchdown-dependent WR3/flex.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (groin), who has missed the team's last two games due to a groin ailment, is close to returning to action, according to a league source. Pierce has only 14 rushing attempts on the year in four games played, but he's gone for 98 yards (career-high 7.0 yards per tote) and a touchdown and is averaging 40 yards per kickoff return. It remains to be seen if the 24-year-old will be able to do enough in practice this week to have a shot at playing on Monday night against the Dallas Cowboys, but even if he does return in Week 11, he'll most likely be eased in and will work behind workhorse Joe Mixon. Dare Ogunbowale has been serving as Houston's RB2 behind Mixon with Pierce sidelined. At best, Pierce is a handcuff option for fantasy managers that have Mixon in their starting lineups on a weekly basis.
From RotoBaller