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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Rico Dowdle Jan 5 9:30pm ET
Rico Dowdle

Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle rushed 22 times for 72 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's Week 18 loss to the Washington Commanders. He also caught two of his three targets for an additional 12 yards through the air. Dowdle was quite impressive throughout the 2024 season, supplanting Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys' undisputed No. 1 running back. He finished the campaign with 1,079 rushing yards, 249 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns through 16 games, ranking as a low-end RB2 in fantasy football. There has been plenty of speculation that the Cowboys could take an aggressive approach with their pursuit of a running back this offseason, such as drafting Ashton Jeanty. However, there's also a real possibility they feel confident in Dowdle and don't take as big of a swing for a backfield addition within the upcoming months. The 26-year-old currently still has appeal as a mid-range RB3 option heading into the 2025 campaign, and until Dallas brings in competition, this backfield belongs to Dowdle.

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Aaron Rodgers Jan 5 9:30pm ET
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of his 36 passes for 274 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in a 32-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Rodgers set a record by becoming just the fifth NFL quarterback to throw 500 touchdown passes in his career, joining Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Brett Favre in the exclusive club. The veteran quarterback finishes his second season with the Jets with 3,897 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while appearing in all 17 of the team's games. It was a rocky season for Rodgers and a Jets team that had playoff aspirations in the preseason, only to fire head coach Robert Saleh in October and ultimately go 5-12 on the season. Rodgers is under contract for another season but the Jets could choose to part ways with the future Hall of Famer after the two sides appeared to have some issues throughout the season. After the game, Rodgers was not ready to state whether he would return for the 2025 season or retire. Stay tuned.

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Shane Steichen Jan 5 9:30pm ET
Shane Steichen

Per Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay, head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard will continue to operate in their roles next season. Irsay took to X (Twitter) on Sunday evening following Indianapolis' 26-23 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars to express his frustration over not making the playoffs. However, he gave his head coach and GM a vote of confidence heading into next season. "I've been evaluating our entire operation, and I believe in Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen and our collective ability to make the improvements needed to take us to the next level in 2025." Steichen has coached his way to a 17-17 record since taking over in 2023, while the Colts have seen just four winning seasons since Ballard got the GM job during the 2016 playoffs. There is plenty of talent on this squad -- particularly on the offensive side. Still, as of now, the team's success hinges on the development of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Fortunately for Ballard and Steichen, they'll get at least one more go.

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Payne Durham Jan 5 9:20pm ET
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Marvin Harrison Jr. Jan 5 9:13pm ET
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Jalen McMillan Jan 5 9:10pm ET
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan posted another strong performance during Sunday's regular season finale against the New Orleans Saints. The rookie wideout hauled in five of his six targets for 74 yards and a touchdown in the win. It's also worth noting that McMillan rushed the ball once for six yards. That score was his seventh touchdown over his last five games. McMillan has come out of nowhere and become an elite red-zone threat for the Bucs down the stretch of the season. The rookie wideout will look to extend his five-game touchdown streak during next week's playoff game.

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Bucky Irving Jan 5 9:10pm ET
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Tyreek Hill Jan 5 9:10pm ET
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While being interviewed by reporters after their 32-20 loss to the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill insinuated that he'd prefer to play elsewhere moving forward. "I just gotta do what's best for me and my family. If that's here or wherever the case may be...I'm out. At the end of the day, I need to do what's best for my career." Whoah. 2024 marks the first season since his rookie year that Hill had played at least 15 games and not reached 1,000 receiving yards. Additionally, it was the first time since then that he'd failed to finish as a top-ten fantasy wideout under those same parameters. The 30-year-old was visibly frustrated after the game and noted he won't be in the playoffs for the first time in his career. It's a bad look for his future prospects with the team. Still, the off-season is young for him and the Dolphins, and there will be plenty of time to speculate on where he might play in 2025. As of now, he's on contract with the team through 2026.

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Josh Downs Jan 5 9:00pm ET
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Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs caught 10 of his 13 targets for 94 yards during Sunday's Week 18 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts' passing attack has seen a significant boost ever since quarterback Joe Flacco took over for the injured Anthony Richardson (back), but Downs truly took his productivity to the next level during Sunday's season finale. He finishes the 2024 campaign with 72 catches, 803 yards, and five touchdowns. Each of these three marks represented season-highs, topping the totals he delivered as a rookie last year. Downs has firmly established himself as an appealing 1B option with the Colts, pairing nicely alongside their 1A receiver, Michael Pittman Jr. The UNC product will rank as a high-end WR3 when 2025 fantasy football drafts kick off next summer, and he has even greater appeal in dynasty leagues.

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Demario Douglas Jan 5 8:50pm ET
Demario Douglas

New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas caught three of his four targets for 34 yards during Sunday's Week 18 win over the Buffalo Bills. The second-year slot receiver finishes his 2024 campaign with 66 catches, 621 yards, and three touchdowns. Although he technically out-produced all other Patriots receivers this season, he lost significant ground to Kayshon Boutte as soon as Drake Maye took over as New England's starting quarterback. Heading into 2025, both Boutte and Douglas can expect to face competition as the Patriots bring in a new coaching staff and look to bolster their offense with a big-name wide receiver addition.

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Tyler Higbee Jan 5 8:50pm ET
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Alec Pierce Jan 5 8:40pm ET
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Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce did his usual thing on Sunday, catching a deep 40-yard touchdown pass on the team's opening drive and adding another 17-yard catch in the 26-23 win over the Jaguars. Despite only 37 receptions on the season, the 24-year-old finishes as the Colts' receiving leader with 824 yards and seven touchdowns. With blazing speed, he led the league in average depth of target (aDOT) which helped him rack up the yardage. The former second-round draft pick will likely fill a similar role in 2025 but, unless he can garner additional targets, it's hard to envision outpacing this season's production. Nevertheless, he should be worthy of at least a bench spot in next year's drafts, as he can be a viable (yet volatile) fill-in when the bye weeks hit.

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Zach Charbonnet Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Zach Charbonnet

Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet did not deliver for fantasy managers in Week 18. He ran for 59 yards and gained 32 yards on a lateral from wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Charbonnet was in a great position to succeed as the starter. However, Seattle rotated running back Kenny McIntosh into the lineup consistently. As such, Charbonnet did not have the same volume he has enjoyed in his other starts this season. Charbonnet's future in fantasy is interesting. The Seahawks seem very committed to starting running back Kenneth Walker III (ankle). However, Charbonnet has shown this season that he can carry the load when called upon and Walker has proven himself to be injury prone throughout his career. At the very least, Charbonnet has proven himself to be an excellent complimentary piece to Walker. Charbonnet should have a chance to be a consistent contributor next year. His eight rushing touchdowns were excellent this year. Time will tell what Seattle decides to do with their offense.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught four passes for nine yards in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Smith-Njigba was invisible in a game in which quarterback Geno Smith threw four touchdown passes. What's worse, JSN had a chance to break wide receiver Tyler Lockett's single-season team receptions record. He fell one reception short of breaking the record. Overall, Smith-Njigba had a great season. He will finish with 1,130 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 100 receptions. Fantasy managers should be ecstatic about Smith-Njigba heading into next season. He is clearly Smith's No. 1 target, and he has displayed that he has the talent to be a high-end producer for fantasy. While his Week 18 was disappointing, the future is bright for JSN.

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Joshua Karty Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Joshua Karty

Los Angeles Rams kicker Joshua Karty made all four of his field goal attempts against the Seahawks in Week 18 and converted his only extra-point attempt as well. The sixth-round pick from Stanford finished the regular season 29-of-34 on field goal attempts and 32-of-36 on extra-point tries. He made all 13 of his field goal tries over the last four weeks, which should give him a big confidence boost going into the postseason. He also made field goals of 57 and 58 yards to finish the season six-of-seven on kicks from 50+ yards. After an inconsistent season, the rookie finished strong and will look to keep rolling next week as the Rams host a Wild Card game, which means he'll be kicking indoors again as a solid option against the Vikings or Lions.

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D.K. Metcalf Jan 5 8:30pm ET
D.K. Metcalf

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf caught three passes for 53 yards and a touchdown in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Metcalf was tied for second on the team in targets with five on Sunday. Metcalf's three receptions were still concerning considering he has not caught more than four passes since Week 11. Metcalf will finish the season eight yards shy of the fourth 1,000-yard season of his career. Metcalf began 2024 on fire, but he did not have the same production after returning from an MCL sprain halfway through the season. With Seattle headed into their offseason after missing the playoffs, they will look to retool their roster. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on Seattle's personnel moves and the evolution of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Hopefully, Metcalf can bounce back for fantasy managers in 2025.

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Geno Smith Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Geno Smith

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (hip) threw a season-high four touchdown passes in a Week 18 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Smith cashed in on several contract incentives in arguably his best game of the season. Smith led a go-ahead drive that was ultimately the game-winning drive. He capped the drive with a touchdown pass to tight end Noah Fant. After throwing the touchdown, Smith was checked out for a lower body injury that was later reported as a hip injury. His services were ultimately not needed again as the Seahawks iced the game on defense, but not much is known about the injury at this time. Smith's end to the season is encouraging for fantasy. After struggling in the touchdown department all year, Smith's four touchdown passes on Sunday were a welcome sign. Smith's future as Seattle's starting quarterback is up in the air. For now, Smith can enjoy the time off as Seattle will not be advancing to the playoffs.

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Kayshon Boutte Jan 5 8:30pm ET
Kayshon Boutte

New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte caught all seven of his targets for 117 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's Week 18 win over the Buffalo Bills. Boutte finishes 2024 as New England's best receiver. Despite a slow start to the year, he finished his second season with 43 catches, 589 yards, and three touchdowns through 15 games. He has played at least two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of his last 13 contests, developing into New England's No. 1 option in the passing game. His role atop the depth chart is far from assured heading into 2025, especially with a new coaching regime on the way. However, Boutte has shown that he deserves to be involved, even if that's merely as a deep threat on the perimeter. He continues to trend upward in dynasty leagues, and he should also sneak into the back end of fantasy drafts next summer.

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Jordan Whittington Jan 5 8:20pm ET
Jordan Whittington

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Jordan Whittington fell just short of 100 yards rushing plus receiving in the regular season finale of his rookie season. While Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp rested for the playoffs, he posted a team-high 86 yards by catching three of four targets from backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo. The former Longhorn also added 12 rushing yards on two carries. Whittington wasn't heavily targeted but made the most of his chances, highlighted by hauling in a 50-yard reception that helped give the Rams a late lead. While the team came up just short in the end against the Seahawks, Whittington continued to show the potential to contribute as a depth option and possibly figure into the Rams' future plans at the position.

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