RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 6
Dynasty | Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 95 rushing yards, three catches, ten receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: That's the good news. The bad news is the fact Tyler Allgeier had 18 carries (Robinson had 15) and scored a touchdown of his own. At this point, it is what it is - Robinson is a committee back who is going to be stuck in somewhere around a 60/40 touch-share with Allgeier for the foreseeable future. While he'll have RB1 days like this, he's also a player who has a lower floor than many had expected. Robinson's dynasty value is slipping a touch while Allgeier's is rising.
Dynasty | Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders had five catches for 49 yards in a loss to the Falcons. Dynasty Analysis: Sanders had just eight catches for 41 yards on the season, so today's line (and seven targets) are a good sign for him moving forward. While the Panthers offense can't be trusted on a weekly basis, this should at least put Sanders on the map. He's a solid hold moving forward as Carolina tries to right the ship.
Dynasty | Panthers rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette had three catches for 23 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Falcons. Dynasty Analysis: Legette still hasn't passed 200 total receiving yards on the season but you can certainly tell he has some talent. The Panthers are a mess and Legette hasn't been given much of a fighting chance all season, so today was a good day. He remains a solid buy candidate as a rookie receiver who hasn't hit his stride but has some solid long-term potential.
Dynasty | Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 14-of-24 passes for 145 yards, adding 59 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win over Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: Fields hasn't been very inspiring as a passer this year, but his rushing ability has won Pittsburgh some games and kept his dynasty value afloat. Most importantly, he has just one turnover all season through six games and has done nothing but keep the Steelers in football games. At this point, Fields' dynasty value is stable and it would be a shock to see Pittsburgh turn to Russell Wilson while he keeps winning games.
Dynasty | Steelers running back Najee Harris had 106 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: He added 16 receiving yards on two catches and posted his big day on just 14 carries. This was a much-needed big performance from Harris, who was likely benched by a host of dynasty managers this afternoon. While we need to see a lot more before trusting him, Harris still seems like the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh and a threat to score every week.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had nine catches for 71 yards in a loss to Pittsburgh. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers now has 37 catches through six games, putting him on pace for more than 100 on the season. While dynasty managers may be frustrated at the lack of touchdowns (he has just one), it's hard to look at Bowers and not see the future TE1 in dynasty leagues. He's locked and loaded in lineups moving forward and a player to build around moving forward.
Dynasty | Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 18-of-25 passes for 315 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 47-9 road demolition of the Dallas Cowboys. Dynasty Analysis: Despite going 18-of-18 last week, this was Goff's best game of the season as he simply carved up the Dallas defense and did whatever he wanted. The Lions are rolling and Goff looks like he's hitting his stride. While dynasty managers are always going to complain about the lack of rushing yards, Goff is again in the weekly QB1 conversation as he looks like he's getting into a serious groove. He remains one of the more underrated dynasty quarterbacks and a clear target for contending teams in need of a signal caller.
Dynasty | Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott completed 17-of-33 passes for 178 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a home blowout loss to Detroit. Dynasty Analysis: Prescott traditionally has some serious ups and downs, but this was a truly awful performance. He routinely missed open receivers and was outdueled by Detroit quarterback Jared Goff on his home turf. With just eight touchdown passes and six interceptions through six games, it's time to start wondering if dynasty teams can truly count on him as a QB1 moving forward this season. In short, it may be time to panic.
Dynasty | Chargers running back JK Dobbins had 96 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: He added two catches for six yards. Dobbins was predictably busy in this one after Gus Edwards was put on IR this week. It's been a big-time bounce-back season for Dobbins, who had a season high 25 carries in this one. While he hasn't had a 100-yard game since the second week of the season, the thought Dobbins was going to be unable to return to his pre-injury form seem to have been put to rest. He'll be a solid RB2 moving forward and dynasty managers need to really look at him as a potential buy or sell depending on where they sit after six weeks.
Dynasty | Broncos wide receiver Devaughn Vele had four catches for 78 yards in a loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Vele has been talked about a lot as a potential breakout player this year after making the team as a seventh round draft pick. Today was a good start as he returned form a short-term absence to post a decent game. While expectations should be tempered, you could certainly do worse on a waiver wire add this week.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 23 rushing yards, three catches and 13 receiving yards while also losing a fumble in a loss against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: After six games, it's fair to make an assessment about Williams and he just simply hasn't been very good. His 23 yards today put him just over 200 on the season and his 3.7 yards per carry isn't inspiring much confidence moving forward. His 17 catches on the year have helped but Williams has yet to score a touchdown on the season. At this point, the idea Williams was going to have a big year have come and gone and he belongs on dynasty benches as his value sinks each week.
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson reeled in 6-of-10 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 38-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Johnson scored his third touchdown in the last four games in this one and led his team in every significant receiving category. Since quarterback Andy Dalton took over as Carolina's signal-caller in Week 3, the 28-year-old has done as such in 3-of-4 contests and is the PPR WR5 over that stretch. He'll look to keep it rolling in an enticing Week 7 road matchup against the Washington Commanders. Their defense has registered just one interception on the season and entered Week 6 tied with the Panthers for the most passing touchdowns let up to opposing offenses (11).
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard rushed 18 times for 91 yards in the team's 38-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, adding 11 yards through the air and five receptions on eight targets. It was another effective day for Hubbard, while the only thing missing from his stat line was a trip to the end zone. It's the fourth-straight game for the 25-year-old with at least 92 yards on the ground and the fifth in a row with at least four receptions. Since Week 3, the Oklahoma State product's 82.8 PPR fantasy points are second only to Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry. Hubbard has a favorable Week 7 matchup against the Washington Commanders and can continue to be fired up as a strong RB2 while Carolina's backfield is his.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton completed 26-of-38 passes for 221 yards in Sunday's 38-20 loss to their division-rival Atlanta Falcons. He threw two touchdowns and two interceptions and rushed three times for 21 yards. It was another underwhelming performance for the Red Rifle, who has thrown at least one pick in his last three outings, leading Carolina to its third-straight loss. The more of a sample we see from him, the more that his 300-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 3 looks like the anomaly. He'll have a chance to turn it around in a solid Week 7 road matchup against the Washington Commanders. Still, one has to wonder how much longer it is until we see second-year QB Bryce Young regain control of the offense.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers recorded one sack, one interception, two forced and recovered fumbles, and a blocked punt while surrendering 13 points to the Las Vegas Raiders in a Week 6 win. Once again, it was DPOY candidate T.J. Watt leading the charge, forcing both fumbles by Las Vegas ballcarriers. Defensive back Donte Jackson logged his third interception of the campaign on an overthrow by quarterback Aidan O'Connell in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh was still missing linebackers Alex Highsmith (groin) and Nick Herbig (hamstring) but is expected to have the former back in time for a Week 7 clash with the New York Jets. Fantasy managers should continue to roll with the Steelers DST in most weeks this season.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson (tibia) will miss the remainder of the 2024 season after undergoing emergency surgery Sunday to repair a compound fracture, per Ari Meirov of The 33rd Team. Hutchinson suffered the injury while sacking quarterback Dak Prescott in the Lions' 47-9 win over the Dallas Cowboys. The third-year defensive standout completed the sack but immediately grabbed his leg upon hitting the ground and was carted off the field in an air cast. He'll now spend the night in a local Dallas hospital. It's a massive blow to Detroit's defense, as the 24-year-old led the league in sacks (6.5) entering Week 6 and is a formidable game-breaker off the edge. Defensive end Isaac Ukwu figures to pick up snaps with the injury to Hutchinson, and Detroit may seek help elsewhere with no other healthy defensive ends on the roster. The Lions will get a road matchup in Week 7 against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker made all five of his kicks in a Week 6 win over the Denver Broncos. Dicker tried three field goals, making them all while also adding two extra points. His field goals came from 20, 33, and 46 yards out. He remains one of the most consistent kickers inside 50 yards and with the way the Chargers offense is going, he could continue to get several chances to score per game. He'll be a top-12 option more weeks than he won't be, and should be rostered in most formats that still have a K spot in the lineup.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie running back Kimani Vidal scored the first touchdown of his NFL career in a Week 6 win over the Denver Broncos. Vidal ran the ball four times, gaining 11 yards. He was targeted twice in the passing game and made the most of it, scoring a 38-yard touchdown and gaining 40 yards total through the air. Vidal only got six touches total, but his workload should be going up after this solid performance and with Gus Edwards (ankle) now on IR. J.K. Dobbins will clearly be the RB1 on the Chargers offense, but Vidal should work his way into the main backup role before long. He should be picked up off waivers wherever he's available.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey was in and out of Week 6's win over the Denver Broncos, but appears to have escaped the game without a serious lasting injury. Several times, McConkey was forced to the sideline only to return to the game later on. In total, he was targeted eight times, making four catches for 43 yards. He led the team in targets and catches, falling one yard behind the team lead in receiving yards. McConkey has proven to be the WR1 on this offense, but it will continue to be a run-first unit that severely limits the upside of any pass catcher on the roster.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell drilled four field goal attempts and converted on both of his extra-point tries in a 32-13 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Boswell followed up a quiet showing in Week 5 with his best fantasy performance since Pittsburgh's season opener. He nailed his longest field goal of the day, a 52-yarder, on the Steelers' first possession of the contest and proceeded to hit from 49, 37, and 36 yards out. The 33-year-old is in the midst of a stellar campaign with 16 field goals on 17 attempts and 10 extra points on as many tries. Although he is producing like an every-week fantasy starter, there will likely be more games in which Boswell is limited by Pittsburgh's offense. One such outing could be in Week 7 against a tough New York Jets defense.
From RotoBaller
