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RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
CeeDee Lamb Nov 3 7:30pm ET
CeeDee Lamb

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) will undergo an MRI to address an AC joint issue in his shoulder. The wideout exited Sunday's meeting with the Atlanta Falcons, although he still managed to return to finish with eight catches for 47 yards. Without a doubt, the Cowboys can't afford any more injuries, considering Dak Prescott (hamstring) will also need an MRI to address the hamstring injury suffered in Week 9. If Lamb can't play in the NFC East showdown with the Eagles, Jalen Tolbert, Jalen Brooks, KaVontae Turpin, and Jake Ferguson would all likely see more attention on the receiving end.

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Darnell Mooney Nov 3 7:30pm ET
Darnell Mooney

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney hauled in five of nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 win over Dallas. With fellow wideout Drake London going down with an injury early on in the game, Mooney and Bijan Robinson picked up the slack, accounting for 12 of Kirk Cousins' 19 completions. The 27-year-old has now earned six or more targets in seven of nine games and has gone over 80 yards receiving in four of them, with Sunday's TD giving him five on the season. An early look at next week's contest with New Orleans provides another favorable matchup with the Saints in the top third in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If London were to miss any time, it would give an additional boost to Mooney and the rest of the receiving corps.

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Andrew Billings Nov 3 7:10pm ET
Andrew Billings

Chicago Bears defensive tackle Andrew Billings (chest) won't return to Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals. The 29-year-old was quiet in Week 9, totaling three tackles before going down with a chest injury. He'll likely undergo further testing. However, if Billings misses time, it wouldn't be an ideal situation for a defense that struggled to stop the run in Week 9.

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Mark Andrews Nov 3 7:00pm ET
Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews wasn't a big part of the passing game despite the pass-catchers combining for 280 yards. The veteran ended the game with two receptions for 26 yards on two targets. He only received a 10.5% target share and Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 19 times. The game turned into a blowout pretty quickly after a slow first quarter, and the Ravens didn't need to throw the ball that much in the second half. Andrews will look to bounce back against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10.

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Devon Achane Nov 3 7:00pm ET
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Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane carried the ball 12 times for 63 yards and a rushing touchdown while adding eight receptions for 58 yards and a receiving touchdown in Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Achane took advantage of a soft Buffalo Bills rush defense and topped his previous best outing of the season in Week 8. The Miami offensive line looked much better than in previous weeks and gave the 23-year-old plenty of room to run. A fumble by Raheem Mostert allowed Achane to get even more touches. Mostert has had trouble holding onto the ball since he's returned, causing head coach Mike McDaniels to keep him on the sidelines periodically. Achane will look to build on Sunday's performance as the Dolphins will face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.

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Patrick Ricard Nov 3 7:00pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard found the end zone for the first time this season in the 41-10 win over the Denver Broncos. Ricard scored on his lone target of the day which he caught for three yards. The four-time pro bowler is good for one of these receiving touchdowns per year when he slips out into a flat and finds himself wide open. Ricard and the Ravens will take on the Cincinnati Bengals in another AFC North matchup in Week 10.

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Zay Flowers Nov 3 6:50pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers posted his first multi-score game of the season and broke the century mark in a 41-10 blowout over the Denver Broncos. The speedy wideout finished the game with 127 yards, two touchdowns, five receptions, and six targets. He was able to get open at all different levels of the field and was able to shed tacklers in the process. Flowers' longest play of the day was a 53-yard score where he caught the ball in the middle of the field, broke a tackle, and outran the rest of the defense. He'll look to continue this momentum in Week 10 against their AFC North foes the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Josh Palmer Nov 3 6:50pm ET
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Will Dissly Nov 3 6:50pm ET
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Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly (shoulder) only made two catches in a Week 9 win over the Cleveland Browns. Dissly has been dealing with a shoulder injury but came into the game without an official injury designation. He'd been very heavily involved in the passing game over the past three games, but with Quentin Johnston returning from an ankle injury, Dissly again faded into a support role at best. He was targeted just three times, making his two catches for nine yards total. Dissly could have some touchdown-dependent value in fantasy leagues going forward, but his brief stint as a TE1 is likely over.

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A.J. Brown Nov 3 6:50pm ET
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Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) won't return to Sunday's game against Jacksonville. The wideout came back to the field with his team to start the second half of the contest. However, he wasn't on the sidelines long before leaving for the locker room. Brown will finish Week 9 with only two catches for 36 yards. As expected, fantasy managers are now wondering if he'll be available in Week 10 for the NFC East meeting with the Cowboys. If he's not, DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, and Saquon Barkley would presumably get more involved on the receiving end. Dallas Goedert (hamstring) would also likely see more targets, assuming he returns from his stint on the shelf. But if Goedert isn't available versus Dallas, Grant Calcaterra would also be in the mix for more attention from Jalen Hurts.

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Cameron Dicker Nov 3 6:50pm ET
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Dak Prescott Nov 3 6:40pm ET
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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) exited Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. The signal-caller had a decent showing. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury ended his day abruptly. Of course, there are concerns about the severity of his injury. However, Prescott will undergo an MRI on Monday. He'll likely miss some practice time throughout the week, assuming the injury isn't serious. But if Prescott can't suit up in Week 10 versus the Eagles, Cooper Rush, finishing with 115 yards and a touchdown off 13-for-25 passing on Sunday, would presumably remain under center.

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Kimani Vidal Nov 3 6:40pm ET
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Los Angeles Chargers rookie running back Kimani Vidal continued in his clear backup role in a 27-10 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 9. Vidal carried the ball five times, gaining just seven yards total while not seeing a target in the passing game. Starter J.K. Dobbins scored twice in this game and recorded 16 touches, with Vidal again sticking to an occasional change of pace and backup role. On his own, Vidal won't have any real fantasy value, but if Dobbins were to miss time, Vidal would step into his role and skyrocket into the RB2 ranks.

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Quentin Johnston Nov 3 6:40pm ET
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Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (ankle) had a big game in his return to the starting lineup in Week 9. Johnston missed two games with an ankle injury but came back strong and looked good. He was targeted five times, making four catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown was on a big 66-yard play in the second quarter. Johnston ended up leading the team in receiving yards and was second in catches and targets. He should continue to be heavily involved and could move into a consistent WR3 fantasy rank if the Chargers keep their offense going. They'll face the Tennessee Titans in Week 10.

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Ladd McConkey Nov 3 6:40pm ET
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J.K. Dobbins Nov 3 6:30pm ET
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Lamar Jackson Nov 3 6:20pm ET
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Tyreek Hill Nov 3 6:10pm ET
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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught four out of five targets for 80 yards in Miami's 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The offense made it clear early that their mission was to establish the run against a vulnerable defensive line for the Bills. Hill would've had a much better day if Tua Tagovailoa had hit him in stride on a deep ball he severely underthrew, which may have ended in a touchdown. Contrary to the defense's poor performance, the offense gave a great showing. Nonetheless, Hill made the most of the limited number of targets he received. At (2-6), Miami will be desperate for wins for the rest of the season, which should equal more targets for the speedster. The 30-year-old looks to have more looks next week when the Dolphins travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams.

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Jaylen Waddle Nov 3 6:10pm ET
Jaylen Waddle

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (ankle) caught both his two targets for minus-four yards and a receiving touchdown in their 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Other than the touchdown, Waddle was relatively quiet during the day. His second reception came on the game's last play, where Miami lateraled, and he ran close to 25 yards backwards. He left the game briefly with an ankle injury but soon re-entered the game with no further issues. The lack of targets came from the offense electing to establish the run and expose Buffalo's weakness of stopping the run. Still, this season has not been what fantasy managers have hoped for from the 25-year-old after three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. With Miami falling to 2-6 and the schedule looking a bit easier in the next couple of weeks, Waddle has the potential to break out. Next week, a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams could be a shootout.

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