Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 9
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson had an impressive showing last Sunday, but he'll get a tougher matchup in the form of the Tennessee Titans during Week 9. The 2024 season has been a mixed bag of results for Stevenson, who is ultimately averaging 60.3 rushing yards, 8.7 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game. His reduced work as a pass-catcher is particularly perplexing given how effective he's been as a receiver and blocker in past years. Nevertheless, Stevenson has showcased efficiency and a nose for the end zone this year, allowing him to rank as the overall RB24 so far this season. He'll likely fall a few spots against a Titans defense allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs, but he's still worth starting in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas has been ineffective over the last two weeks, averaging just two catches and 13 yards while seeing a reduction in snaps. More than one-third of his season total receiving yards came in just one game (Week 6), making him tough to trust in lineups on a week-after-week basis. This week, Douglas faces the Tennessee Titans, whose defense has quietly been one of the league's stronger units. They've been closer to mediocre against slot receivers like Douglas, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Regardless of whether Drake Maye (concussion) or Jacoby Brissett starts on Sunday, Douglas is avoidable given his tough stretch and less-than-ideal matchup.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp looks to return to WR1 form after his solid return in Week 8, even though fellow wideout Puka Nacua (knee) overshadowed him. He caught five passes on eight targets for 51 yards and a receiving touchdown. Week 9 presents a solid matchup against a Seattle Seahawks defense that ranks 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. Nacua's status against Seattle is uncertain, meaning more targets could be heading Kupp's way if Nacua is ruled out. Darius Slayton, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Khalil Shakir have all gone over 100 yards receiving in recent weeks against them. The Rams' offense seems to be back in peak form with all of their weapons back. Expect his target share to continue to go up each week, as history has shown when Matthew Stafford is under center. Kupp should be started with confidence in all lineups and check in as RotoBaller's WR10 in the Week 9 rankings.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is eager for increased opportunities this week as he takes on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Though he has been primarily used sparingly as a backup, he has established himself as the team's go-to goal-line back, showcasing his potential in that role. Last week, Johnson had a limited outing with just two carries for 6 yards, but he managed to find the end zone on a crucial goal-line carry. As he prepares for the matchup against the Cardinals, Johnson will be looking to capitalize on more red-zone opportunities. A favorable factor for him is that the Cardinals' defense currently ranks 24th in EPA per rush, indicating vulnerability against the run. This could allow Johnson to build on his solid play and become a more impactful contributor to the Bears' offense this week.
From RotoBaller
This week, Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid WR2/WR3 option. However, there is some downside to consider against the struggling Arizona Cardinals secondary, which currently ranks 30th in EPA per pass this season. Moore's season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, with inconsistent performances that have prevented him from reaching the level of reliability many anticipated, especially given the supposed improvements at quarterback. Last week, he had a quiet outing against the Washington Commanders, managing only two catches for 27 yards without finding the end zone. For the Bears to maximize their offensive potential, it's crucial that they find ways to get Moore more involved in the game plan. With the Cardinals' defensive struggles, this week presents a prime opportunity for him to break out and deliver a more robust performance for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is looking to bounce back this week as he faces a mediocre Arizona Cardinals secondary. After a frustrating performance against an improved Washington Commanders defense last week, where he led the team in targets with seven but only managed to haul in two catches for 39 yards, Allen is eager to regain his rhythm. The Bears need him to be a key contributor, especially given the Cardinals' struggles in pass defense, currently ranking 30th in EPA per pass this season. This matchup presents a prime opportunity for Allen to improve his numbers and reestablish himself as a reliable target in the Bears' offense. With his talent and the favorable matchup, fantasy managers should have their fingers crossed for a significant rebound performance from Allen this week.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze has the potential for a strong performance this Sunday as he faces a vulnerable Arizona Cardinals secondary. Last week, Odunze led all Bears receivers with 41 yards against the Washington Commanders, a reflection of the team's overall struggles in the passing game. However, his six targets indicate that he is starting to carve out a role in the offense, which is often the case for rookie wideouts who gain traction as the season progresses. Given the Cardinals' defensive strugglesranking 30th in EPA per pass this seasonOdunze has a prime opportunity to capitalize on his targets. If he can continue to earn looks and leverage the matchup, he could emerge as a valuable asset for fantasy managers. This week, all eyes will be on Odunze to see if he can take advantage of the favorable conditions and elevate his game.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is positioned as a solid starter this week, largely due to a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals secondary. Kmet faced challenges in Week 8 against the Washington Commanders, managing only one reception for 14 yards and failing to score. His performances this season have been characterized by a boom-or-bust nature, which is often the reality at the tight end position in fantasy football. However, the opportunity for a breakout game looms large this week, especially against a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th in EPA per pass. If Kmet can capitalize on Arizona's defensive weaknesses, he could significantly contribute to fantasy lineups. With the potential for increased targets and a favorable matchup, Kmet is a player to watch closely, making him a valuable asset for fantasy managers this week.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a solid yet somewhat unexciting fantasy option for Week 9 as he prepares to face the Arizona Cardinals. In his last outing, Santos had a minimal role, managing to get on the field only for one extra point, as the Bears' offense struggled significantlyparticularly in the passing gamewhich resulted in no field goal attempts. With the game's over/under set at a modest 44.5 points, it seems likely to be a low-scoring affair. Fantasy managers might find other kickers on the waiver wire who offer more upside this week, making them potentially more appealing options. However, it's important to note that Santos has been reliable and consistent when given opportunities. While more attractive alternatives may be available, if you're in a pinch, you can feel comfortable including Santos in your lineup as a backup option.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams presents a compelling fantasy option as he faces off against the Arizona Cardinals. Williams is eager to bounce back after a disappointing outing against the Washington Commanders in Week 8, where he completed just ten of 24 passes for 131 yards without any touchdowns. While the growing pains of a rookie quarterback often include fluctuating performances, a mere 131 passing yards is far from ideal. Fortunately for Williams, he'll be up against a Cardinals defense that currently ranks 30th in EPA per pass this season, providing a favorable matchup. While there are certainly more reliable quarterbacks to consider this week, don't overlook the potential for Williams to surprise and finish as a QB1. His talent and the Cardinals' defensive struggles could create the perfect storm for a strong fantasy performance.
From RotoBaller
On Sunday, Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift had an outstanding game against the Washington Commanders, recording 18 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown. He made a game-changing 56-yard touchdown run in the third quarter, sparking a stagnant Bears offense at a crucial moment. Swift demonstrated his ability to create explosive plays when provided with solid blocking and space to operate. Although it was disappointing that he finished without any receptions, given that Caleb Williams only completed ten passes overall, there's optimism that Swift will see more opportunities in the passing game moving forward. Additionally, it was concerning for Swift's fantasy owners to see Roschon Johnson take goal-line carries, which must be monitored. Swift will aim to maintain his momentum against a vulnerable Arizona Cardinals defense next week.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. Las Vegas' defense will be tasked with stopping the 11th ranked offense in points per game in 2024. They haven't been particularly effective at stopping anyone this season, and rank poorly in turnovers forced, severely limiting their upside. LV's D/ST ranks 31st in fantasy football this season, second-to-last in the NFL, and it's unlikely things will change. They typically face uphill battles, as the Raiders offense isn't good at sustaining drives and often loses the time of possession battle with opponents. Bengals QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja'Marr Chase, and RB Chase Brown will present significant challenges on Sunday. This D/ST shouldn't be started in any leagues.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson could see another week of solid volume in his Week 9 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati ranks just next to the Kansas City Chiefs, who the Raiders played in Week 8, in fantasy points allowed to opposing teams' kickers. Carlson scored 10 fantasy points as he sent field goals of 32 and 54 yards and two extra point attempts through the uprights successfully. He hasn't missed an extra point so far and has converted on 88.2% of his field goal attempts to this point. He's an excellent kicker, but the problem has always been lack of opportunity. He's a risky start in fantasy lineups due to his inconsistent volume, though. Las Vegas' inability to consistently get within scoring range on offense limits his upside.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker is looking to bounce back to better production after two lackluster performances in Weeks 7 and 8. He's scored just 7.7 and 5.3 PPR fantasy points in his last two games. The extra defensive attention he's drawn due to the absence of the team's current WR1 didn't benefit him in Week 7, and Week 8 he faced one of the toughest pass defenses in the league in the Kansas City Chiefs. His Week 9 opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, allow the 14th-fewest PPR fantasy points to opposing wideouts, making them significantly softer than KC's unit. Tucker is a WR4 for this week's contest, so he'll only be viable in very deep leagues.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew II was actually fringe-startable in his Week 8 loss with the Kansas City Chiefs, but that was mainly due to him authoring a garbage time drive that went for a touchdown. He faces the Cincinnati Bengals this week, though. They boast a high-powered offense that could have the game out of hand before the fourth quarter, which would give him more opportunities for meaningless scores. Still, considering his penchant for turnovers (five of them in the last two games), he's a risky player to set in lineups in 1QB leagues. In 2QB or Superflex leagues, he's a decent start. Unsurprisingly, he appears to play better when his No. 1 wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers (ankle) plays, and he's expected to play Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (quad) lost his starting job to his former backup, Alexander Mattison, ahead of his Week 8 matchup. He proceeded to rush the ball two times for negative-one yard after playing just 3% of the snaps in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He's unlikely to earn his job back. Head coach Antonio Pierce expressed his desire to continue getting White the ball, but it's unlikely he'll earn meaningful touches moving forward after such an ineffective performance. To make matters worse, he's designated as "Questionable" with a quad injury now. He's averaged just 3 yards per carry on the season. He's not startable in any leagues for now.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Alexander Mattison will keep his duties as the lead RB for the Raiders for their Week 9 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. He's been inefficient as a runner, averaging just over 3.1 yards per carry on the season. Most of his value has come from rushing touchdowns and receiving work this season. He rushed 14 times for 15 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8, though they're the toughest run defense in the NFL this year. The Bengals present an easier matchup for him as they're closer to the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Mattison is an RB3/FLEX in PPR leagues for this matchup.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (ankle) was a full participant in practice Thursday and is expected to play in his Week 9 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Meyers continues to be one of the most underrated wideouts in football, likely because of his poor quarterback situation. He caught six passes on seven targets for 52 yards and a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8. He'll face a softer Bengals defenses that isn't quite as lockdown against receivers. He had solid production before garbage time against the Chiefs, making his game more impressive. He's an easy WR3/FLEX starter with WR2 upside in PPR fantasy leagues this week.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers remains an absolute must-start in all fantasy football leagues ahead of his Week 9 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. The rookie star has racked up 52 receptions for 535 yards and one touchdown through eight weeks of NFL action. He's the TE2 overall in full-PPR fantasy scoring. He seems to be a lock to finish top-5 at his position on the season, though the return of wideout Jakobi Meyers (ankle) could siphon a few targets away from him. With Meyers on the field, double-digit targets for Bowers becomes less likely. Regardless, he won't need many to finish as a TE1 this week, and can't be left out of fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants defense faces a major test in Week 9 against a high-powered Washington Commanders offense led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels, who has propelled Washington to third in the league in both points (29.5) and total yards (396.3) per game. While the Giants' defense excels in certain areas, leading the NFL with 35 sacks and ranking fifth in red-zone defense (allowing touchdowns on just 42.1% of red-zone trips), their 27th-ranked run defense (141.8 yards allowed per game) could struggle against Washington's potent third-ranked rushing attack (165.8 yards per game). Despite being 8th against the pass, the Giants will need a strong, balanced defensive effort to limit the explosive potential of Daniels and his offense.
From RotoBaller