RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo hauled in four passes for 50 yards on four targets in a 34-10 loss at Buffalo in Week 7. This marked the young tight end's best game of the season, having failed to top 16 receiving yards up to this point. His 26-yard reception in the first quarter set up Tennessee's only touchdown drive of the game, and he displayed solid chemistry with new starting quarterback Mason Rudolph on the afternoon. With how unreliable this Titans passing attack continues to be, Okonkwo is still not a great option moving forward, but there may be ample opportunity next week in Detroit with the Titans likely playing catch-up.
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Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson caught 7-of-8 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 31-29 loss to their division-rival Detroit Lions. It was another strong performance for the 25-year-old, who continues to be one of the most productive wide receivers in the league. Sunday marked his fourth-straight game with at least 81 yards and six catches, and he's scored a touchdown in all but one contest thus far in 2024. He could have had an even bigger game, but two of his catches went for no gain. The former LSU Tiger will get a quick turnaround in Week 8 when he and the Vikings head to SoFi Stadium for a road tilt with the Los Angeles Rams. He'll again be a top-flight WR play.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Zack Moss had only 7 yards off six touches in Sunday's win over the Browns. He added three catches for 33 yards. It's clear Chase Brown is the preferred runner out of the backfield, resulting in another subpar showing for Moss. While he was considered a flex option heading into Week 7, fantasy managers should reconsider things for the Week 8 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles.
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Cleveland Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman caught eight of his 12 targets for 81 yards in a 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7. In his first game as a starter after the Browns traded away Amari Cooper, Tillman led the Browns in receiving yardage while finishing second in targets and catches in the close loss to the Bengals. The Week 7 performance easily goes down as the best of Tillman's two-year career. Fantasy managers in dynasty leagues should be checking the waiver wire this week to see if Tillman is still floating around out there as he could be Cleveland's No. 1 receiver for the remainder of the season. He will be worth a look as a flex against a leaky Baltimore Ravens pass defense in Week 8.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy caught one of his five targets for 18 yards in a 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7. Jeudy appeared to be in line for a larger role with Amari Cooper traded to the Buffalo Bills earlier in the week but he instead remained an afterthought in the Cleveland offense while Cedric Tillman caught eight balls for 81 yards. Jeudy has shown flashes with the Browns this year but he will be tough to trust in fantasy going forward, even with a plus matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on tap in Week 8.
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Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown ran for 44 yards off 15 carries in the win over the Browns on Sunday. He added two catches for nine yards. The 24-year-old scored in each of his last three appearances. While he cooled off in this one, he still outperformed teammate Zack Moss, who didn't have a quality afternoon. It appears Brown will continue to lead the backfield, keeping him a starting fantasy option for Week 8 against the Eagles, but the continued presence of Moss in this backfield will cap Brown's fantasy upside.
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Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston completed five of his 11 passes for 67 yards and a touchdown in a 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7. Winston opened the game as the Browns' emergency quarterback but was pressed into service after both Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson got injured in the contest. Watson suffered what is believed to be a season-ending Achilles injury, while Thompson-Robinson's finger injury is not considered serious. It remains to be seen whether it will be Winston or DTR under center when the Browns take on the Baltimore Ravens at home in Week 8 but both quarterbacks should be added in superflex and two-quarterback formats this week as Watson's season appears to be over.
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From RotoBaller
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From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb carried the ball 11 times for 22 yards and a touchdown while adding a 10-yard catch in a 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7. Chubb was playing for the first time since he tore his ACL in Week 2 of the 2023 season and received a thunderous ovation from the home crowd before the game. The veteran tailback did not disappoint as he punched in a one-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Cleveland went away from him in the second half as they went very pass-heavy, giving Chubb just one carry after halftime. The veteran running back should see his workload ramp up in the coming weeks as he works his way back into game shape. He will be an RB3 heading into Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
According to head coach Brian Daboll, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will remain the team's starter moving forward. The sixth-year QB finished up his day completing 14-of-21 passes for 99 yards, adding 20 yards on the ground over his five carries. The news comes after Jones was benched in the fourth quarter of the Giant's 28-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles for Drew Lock. "Made a change in the fourth quarter when it was 28-3," said Daboll. "We had 100 yards, just to create a spark." It's worth mentioning that spark did not occur, as Lock led the team to three punts on his possessions, fumbling the ball twice. While the 27-year-old will garner most of the blame, there wasn't much good for the G-Men at all on Sunday. Additionally, the loss of starting left tackle Andrew Thomas (Lisfranc) was a massive blow to the team, and Jones was taken to the turf on seven separate occasions. Better days are ahead for the Duke product, but he'll get another staunch test in Week 8 when his team takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams was nearly a non-factor in the team's 31-29 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7. Williams saw just one target, which resulted in a catch for negative four yards, as Amon-Ra St. Brown had a big day and Kalif Raymond took on a more significant role. Coming off a two-game touchdown streak and consistent yardage production, Williams' minimal output was disappointing for fantasy managers. Despite this being his second one-catch performance of the season, Williams' speed and big-play potential make him a candidate for a bounce-back effort when the Lions host the Tennessee Titans in Week 8.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson had a quiet performance in Sunday's 28-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Robinson led the team with nine targets and six receptions, but he managed just 23 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per catch with a long of six yards. Despite leading the team in both targets and receptions, the Giants' passing game struggled, totaling only 105 yards from their quarterbacks. Robinson finished with 5.3 fantasy points, as the offense was stifled throughout the game.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 181 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's win over the Cleveland Browns. The signal-caller was relatively quiet in the Week 6 win over the New York Giants. However, things were different in Week 7, with Burrow completing his fifth game this season with at least two touchdown passes. He's been one of the top fantasy quarterbacks all year, so there's no reason why he shouldn't be featured in fantasy lineups in Week 8 versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
