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FFL: Week 1 | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Week 1 Fantasy Preview

Player Notes
Joe Burrow Sep 7 12:50am ET
Joe Burrow

The New England Patriots' defense falls outside the top-12 units in fantasy football for Week 1. The Patriots are set to kick off their season against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati has an offense with plenty of firepower, but there are real questions about their pass-catching group this week with Ja'Marr Chase (personal) questionable and Tee Higgins (hamstring) doubtful. There's a chance that the Bengals could be without their top two receivers, leaving Joe Burrow with Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, and Trenton Irwin at his disposal. But even if the Bengals do find themselves short-staffed on Sunday, New England will still be difficult to trust in fantasy football. The Patriots have one of the worst offenses, which means the Bengals should win the time of possession battle and therefore be gifted extra opportunities to score. New England also suffered key losses this offseason, headlined by Matthew Judon being traded to Atlanta and Christian Barmore (blood clots) being sidelined until further notice. With a tough matchup and reduced playmakers, the Patriots' defense lacks fantasy appeal in Week 1. You can probably find better options on the waiver wire.

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DeVonta Smith Sep 7 12:50am ET
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith looked good in Friday's win over the Green Bay Packers. Although A.J. Brown was more productive, amassing five grabs for 119 yards and a touchdown, Smith still finished the night by pulling in seven catches for 84 yards. Fantasy managers would have loved to see the wideout find the end zone. However, it was an acceptable showing, especially with the sloppy field conditions in Brazil. Nonetheless, the Eagles will head home for a few days off before meeting the Atlanta Falcons for Monday Night Football in Week 2. Managers should keep Smith starting in all fantasy setups.

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Joey Slye Sep 7 12:50am ET
Joey Slye

New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye should be left on the waiver wire in fantasy football ahead of his Week 1 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. There are a variety of reasons why Slye is avoidable, starting with the poor state of the Patriots' offense. New England is projected to finish with the NFL's worst record and might have the worst offense in the league. They will have trouble moving into scoring position this year, leaving Slye with reduced opportunities to attempt kicks. Furthermore, Slye himself has delivered questionable production in the past. He made just 19 of 24 field goals last year and also missed three extra point attempts. If the Patriots don't score many points and Slye can't be trusted to kick field goals, then he should be avoided in fantasy football.

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K.J. Osborn Sep 7 12:50am ET
K.J. Osborn

New England Patriots wide receiver K.J. Osborn will make his team debut against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon. The veteran pass-catcher was signed away from the Minnesota Vikings this offseason and should provide quarterback Jacoby Brissett with an experienced presence downfield. Osborn is known for his big-play potential, but he's capable of producing on shorter passes, too. As of now, his primary competition for targets is rookie Ja'Lynn Polk, as the two were vying for the No. 2 role as the summer wound down. It's still unclear which of the two will start alongside Demario Douglas on Sunday, but it's a moot point for fantasy managers given that neither is worth starting in redraft leagues. Douglas, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Hunter Henry are the only Patriots that warrant even some consideration in most fantasy leagues.

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Jayden Reed Sep 7 12:40am ET
Jayden Reed

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed was the offensive star for the Packers in their 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil on Friday night. Reed took a jet sweep for a 33-yard touchdown early in the second quarter and then caught a 70-yard touchdown just a few minutes later on the next Packers' possession. As the most dynamic playmaker for the Packers, Reed was a menace all over the field and was second on the team in targets next to Romeo Doubs. Reed is off to a great start to his second season in green and gold and is primed to build off of a rookie campaign that saw him score 10 touchdowns and put up over 900 yards from scrimmage. The Packers play the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 and Reed should be considered a low-end WR2 in fantasy as long as Jordan Love is the starting quarterback, as Love left the game late in Week 1 with a leg injury.

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Ja'Lynn Polk Sep 7 12:40am ET
Ja'Lynn Polk

New England Patriots wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk will make his NFL debut against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. A second-round pick out of the University of Washington, Polk could open the year as New England's No. 2 wide receiver. As the preseason wrapped up, both he and K.J. Osborn were competing for that role with Demario Douglas in line to serve as the No. 1 receiver. It's possible that Osborn draws the start given his experience in the NFL, but there's no denying that Polk flashed real potential this summer and will be on Osborn's heels, at the very least. Polk should be rostered in most dynasty leagues but lacks redraft appeal, especially with the Patriots projected to finish last in the NFL this year.

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A.J. Brown Sep 7 12:40am ET
A.J. Brown

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown looked good in the Week 1 win over the Packers. While the field conditions in Brazil weren't ideal, the wideout still had a stellar outing, leading his team in receiving by amassing five catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. Brown received a lucrative three-year, $96 million contract extension this offseason after piecing together back-to-back 1,400-yard receiving seasons. Without question, fantasy managers were certainly pleased with his performance on Friday night. With a win, Philadelphia will head home to await the Atlanta Falcons for a Week 2, Monday Night Football matchup. Of course, Brown should remain starting in any fantasy format imaginable.

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Romeo Doubs Sep 7 12:40am ET
Romeo Doubs

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs put together a modest fantasy effort in the Packers' 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil on Friday night. Doubs led the Packers in targets with seven, catching four of those targets for 50 yards. Of the group of wide receivers, Doubs ran the most routes on the team and also led the receivers with an 87% snap share, per Nathan Jahnke of PFF. Even though Doubs ran the most routes and earned the most snaps, he's still a bit of a risky proposition to start in fantasy, especially with a potential Jordan Love injury at the end of Week 1 to factor in. The utilization for Doubs makes him a bit safer as a player you know will be on the field a ton, but with that safety comes the fact that Doubs was a bit touchdown-dependent last season. Consider Doubs a low-end WR3 for fantasy in Week 2 if Love is the starter at quarterback.

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Josh Jacobs Sep 7 12:30am ET
Josh Jacobs

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs finished his first game with the Packers in bounce-back fashion in their Week 1 34-29 loss to the Eagles in Brazil. Jacobs had a nightmare first half where he had six carries for just four yards on the ground. Jacobs' second half was excellent as he reeled off a few nice runs including a 32-yard scamper in the fourth quarter as he finished with 84 yards rushing on 16 carries, while catching 2-of-3 targets for 20 yards on the night. Carrying the rushing volume for the Packers to the tune of 80% of the carries in the backfield, Jacobs was relied upon as the workhorse with MarShawn Lloyd ruled inactive and Emanuel Wilson seeing four carries. Against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2, Jacobs should be a high-end RB2, but if Jordan Love's injury at the end of the game forces somebody else other than Love to start at quarterback, Jacobs' fantasy value would take a bit of a tumble.

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Jalen Hurts Sep 7 12:30am ET
Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts helped guide his team to a win over the Packers on Friday night. The field conditions in Brazil weren't favorable. Yet, the signal-caller still put together an acceptable showing for fantasy managers, throwing for 278 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks off 20-for-34 passing. He added 13 carries for 33 yards. With Jason Kelce now retired, Hurts had issues getting on the same page as center Cam Jurgens, resulting in some botched snaps. However, things will likely get sorted out ahead of the Eagles Week 2 meeting with the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. With that said, Hurts will remain a must-start in all fantasy formats.

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Demario Douglas Sep 7 12:30am ET
Demario Douglas

New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas has generated some buzz as a potential fantasy starter in deeper leagues for Week 1. As the Patriots prepare for battle against the Cincinnati Bengals, quarterback Jacoby Brissett will likely be looking for reliable options in the passing attack, including Douglas. Brissett will have very little time to throw behind the porous offensive line. Therefore, he could connect early and often with Douglas, who typically runs shorter routes and can be a reliable presence over the middle. Douglas won't rack up major yardage, but he could be a PPR darling with the amount of targets he gets Sunday, especially if the Patriots are playing from behind (as expected). With that said, a lack of bye weeks and injuries this early in the season has left plenty of appealing options at the wide receiver position, lowering Douglas' ranking. He's the top fantasy receiver in New England, though, and is best viewed as a low-end FLEX play in deeper leagues this week.

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Saquon Barkley Sep 7 12:20am ET
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley had a stellar showing in the 34-29 win over the Packers in Brazil. Making his debut with the Eagles on Friday night, Barkley ran the ball 24 times, amassing 109 yards while finding the end zone twice. It didn't end there, with the former Giant catching both targets for 23 yards and a touchdown. The veteran signed a three-year, $37.75 million contract with the Eagles this offseason after spending his entire career with the Giants. His talent has never been questioned. However, he'll need to stay healthy, which has been an issue in the past. With a win in the books, the Eagles will fly home for some rest before preparing for a Week 2 Monday Night Football showdown with the Atlanta Falcons. As always, Barkley would is considered a must-start in all fantasy formats for that one.

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Jacoby Brissett Sep 7 12:20am ET
Jacoby Brissett

New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett is gearing up for his second stint with the team. He'll draw the start for New England in Week 1 but remains off the radar in most fantasy leagues. His below-average play coupled with the Patriots' weak pass-catching group lowers Brissett's floor, as well as his upside. He also has a tough matchup against an up-and-coming Cincinnati Bengals defense that finished with the eighth-most interceptions in the NFL last year. If you're a fantasy manager who waited to select a quarterback until the very end of your draft in 2-QB leagues, maybe you should consider Brissett. Otherwise, though, he has a bleak outlook this week and should be treated as one of the least preferable QB options in fantasy football.

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Rhamondre Stevenson Sep 7 12:20am ET
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has more fantasy football allure than the rest of his teammates heading into a Week 1 clash with the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Patriots have a very bleak outlook in general this year, there's still an opportunity for players like Stevenson to see decent volume. That starts this week against a Bengals defense that allowed the ninth-most rushing touchdowns and the 12th-most rushing yards to running backs in 2023. Stevenson will lose some touches to Antonio Gibson, but he's still the No. 1 back in this offense and has workhorse potential. He has also consistently shown his value as a runner, receiver, and blocker, which should allow him to get on the field and earn reps in all types of situations this year. He ranks as a low-end RB2, but managers should expect reduced touchdown opportunities with the Patriots projected to finish as the worst team in the NFL this year.

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Kirk Cousins Sep 7 12:10am ET
Kirk Cousins

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense/special teams was great for fantasy purposes last season and will kick off the 2024 campaign in Atlanta against the Falcons. The Steelers allowed the eighth-fewest points in the NFL in 2023, and although the Falcons scored just under 19 points per contest, Atlanta's offense should be much improved this season with Kirk Cousins under center. Nonetheless, Sunday will be Cousins' first game action since tearing his Achilles last October and it may take some time for the new-look Falcons offense to find its rhythm. The Steelers boast the most expensive defense in the league and have the talent to show for it. Fantasy managers should feel confident rolling with the Steelers D/ST in their lineups this week.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Love Sep 7 12:00am ET
Jordan Love

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (undisclosed) exited Friday's meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles. The signal-caller played most of the contest. However, he took a hit with seconds remaining in the fourth quarter and needed help off the field due to what appeared to be a lower leg injury. Love would finish the night by throwing for 260 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick off 17-for-34 passing before being replaced by Malik Willis, who failed to connect on his only pass attempt. Without question, fantasy managers will anxiously await an update on his condition. Fortunately, the Packers have time before the Week 2 matchup with the Colts. With that in mind, there should be word on Love's injury soon.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Sep 6 11:40pm ET
Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a solid starting option against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. The Miami defense was below league-average against quarterbacks in fantasy last season and lost some pieces on defense, making for a solid opening matchup for the Jaguars quarterback. Lawrence finished as the QB13 in fantasy points per game last season, and expectations for this season are around the same level. The Clemson product's weaponry includes returning top options and intriguing new faces. Once again, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne Jr. should be reliable options in the short and intermediate passing game. Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. were brought in to stretch the field more, replacing Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. The receiving core will look a bit different this season, meaning it may be smartest to wait and see how Lawrence does in Week 1 before trusting him as a fantasy starter. However, fantasy managers can do much worse with their starting QB and should expect a solid floor and solid ceiling out of Lawrence in their Week 1 lineup.

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Chris Boswell Sep 6 11:40pm ET
Chris Boswell

Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell was extremely steady in 2023 and will hope to find success against the Atlanta Falcons in the first contest of his 10th professional season. Atlanta allowed nearly 22 points per game and gave up the third-most fantasy points to opposing kickers last year. Boswell could provide fantasy value in this matchup, but it is difficult to predict how the Steelers will fare in their first game under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and with quarterback Russell Wilson's (calf) status in limbo. Boswell can be considered in a pinch but fantasy managers would be wise to take a wait-and-see approach with Pittsburgh's offense.

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Justin Fields Sep 6 11:10pm ET
Justin Fields

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields may see the field sooner than anticipated in a Week 1 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Head coach Mike Tomlin hinted at a potential package for the 25-year-old last week, but Fields could be in line to draw the start on Sunday with Russell Wilson (calf) limited on Friday and highly questionable to suit up. Even in his first start as a Steeler, Fields should immediately be considered amongst the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks. The Falcons surrendered plenty of production to opposing quarterbacks in 2023 and Fields has averaged nearly 19 fantasy points per game over the past two years. Fantasy managers that opted to pass on the early-round quarterbacks should add Fields and monitor the status of Wilson heading into Sunday. Fields' abilities as a runner give him a safe floor and high ceiling as a starting-caliber fantasy QB1 when under center.

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Pat Freiermuth Sep 6 10:30pm ET
Pat Freiermuth

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth just secured a long-term extension and will look to carry positive momentum into a Week 1 contest against the Atlanta Falcons. There are many questions surrounding the new-look Steelers offense, including who will start at quarterback on Sunday, but Freiermuth could nonetheless be in line for a productive outing. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has been known to heavily feature tight ends and Atlanta surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to the position last season. Freiermuth may not offer the same upside as many of the elite tight ends, but fantasy managers who drafted him shouldn't go searching the waiver wire to replace him in this matchup. He projects as a top-15 option and is especially viable in PPR formats.

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