Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Las Vegas Raiders' first-round tight end Brock Bowers (foot) is off the injury report and ready to make his NFL debut this Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. After limited participation in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, Bowers was a full participant on Friday, confirming his availability for the game. Bowers, selected in the 2024 first round, is expected to be a key target in the Raiders' passing game, including WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, as well as fellow TE Michael Mayer, a 2023 second-round pick. Known for his impressive college career at Georgia, where he had three consecutive seasons with over 50 catches, Bowers is regarded as one of the top tight end prospects to enter the NFL. With a favorable matchup against the Chargers' relatively weaker linebackers, Bowers' ability to read coverages and excel after the catch makes him a strong start for Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams rookie Blake Corum could end up having some stand-alone value in fantasy aside from being a handcuff for Kyren Williams. But in Week 1, fantasy managers would be wise to see how he is used before putting him in the fantasy lineups in his matchup at Detroit. The Lions had a good run defense last year and Corum will be operating behind a healthy Williams on the depth chart. The Michigan product has the potential to score a touchdown in a short-yardage situation but until his usage is more defined it is best to take a wait-and-see approach with Corum. He has a high upside and could end up being a valuable player to roster in the second half of the season, but there is too much unknown in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (plantar fascia) is off the injury report and cleared to play in Sunday's opener against the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite being listed on the injury report earlier this week due to a foot issue, Herbert has recovered and is set for action. He mentioned that he's not using any special footwear or insoles for support and that no specific play or moment triggered the injury. With a revamped offense featuring new starters at wide receiver, tight end, and running back, Herbert's leadership will be crucial this season. Although he should be at close to full strength, the Chargers' new emphasis on the running game and the absence of DJ Chark make it wise to consider other options for starting quarterback this week. In Chark's absence, the team will rely on wide receivers Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams is one of the best fantasy options at his position but faces a tough matchup against the Lions in Week 1. In what should be a high-scoring game, the Rams figure to exploit the passing game against Detroit which allowed 15.79 fantasy points to opposing running backs last season, the best mark in the NFL in that category. Put another way, the Lions were the stiffest test for fantasy running backs last season. That could continue into this season. Williams made some plays in the passing game last season so that could help him a bit in this matchup. The other wild card is the unknown usage of rookie Blake Corum, who theoretically could take away goal-line carries from Williams. Add it all up and this is not an ideal matchup for Williams. Fantasy managers will still likely want to start Williams without a better option in most cases. But expectations should be lowered in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver DJ Chark (hip) will miss Sunday's game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Chark, who joined the Chargers on a one-year deal this offseason, was expected to be a key starter. With him sidelined, Joshua Palmer, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston will lead the Chargers' receiving corps in Week 1. Palmer is likely to see the most significant boost in opportunities, but McConkey and Johnston will also get a chance to prove themselves. Given the anticipated run-heavy approach for the Chargers, it may not be wise to start any of their wide receivers this week. Chark, who didn't practice this week, aims for a return on September 15 against the Panthers.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is set up nicely for success against the Detroit Lions in Week 1. Nacua will line up against the Lions' revamped secondary of rookie Terrion Arnold and veteran Carlton Davis III. He should see success with Matthew Stafford under center and pick up where he left off during a breakout rookie campaign last year. He had a knee issue in the preseason but is fully off the injury report and is ready to go. The BYU product commanded 9.4 targets per game last season and racked up 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. With Cooper Kupp back fully healthy the red-zone usage might be a bit of a concern for Nacua as Stafford seems to look for Kupp a lot in those situations. But Nacua should work the middle of the field on the short and intermediary routes and is a high-upside PPR play, who could be in for a huge game if he can find the end zone.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is not a recommended starter this week due to the tough matchup against a strong Titans secondary and a decreased target share. The Titans allowed the third-fewest fantasy points and receiving yards to tight ends last year, as well as the second-fewest touchdowns. With the addition of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Gerald Everettwho is expected to see more snaps than anticipatedKmet's role in the offense will likely diminish. While Kmet still has the potential to capitalize on his opportunities, the presence of other top fantasy tight ends in less crowded offenses makes him a riskier choice. Kmet could be a valuable asset and a key player for the Bears, but his value as a fantasy starter is uncertain, given the current dynamics.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore remains a solid WR2 option this week, but adjusting expectations is vital given the challenging matchup against one of the league's most improved secondaries. Last season, Moore was a key target for the Bears, receiving 28.5% of the targets and averaging about 80 receiving yards per game. While his target share may go down with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze added to the team, with Caleb Williams now at quarterback, there's potential for enhanced productivity. However, the Titans' defense has seen significant upgrades, including the addition of L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie at cornerback, alongside returning starter Roger McCreary. Sneed will likely be matched against Moore frequently, which could limit Moore's production. In their previous matchup, Moore was held to just 41 yards on three catches when facing Sneed while he was with the Kansas City Chiefs last season, although he did score a touchdown during garbage time in a blowout loss. While Moore remains a worthwhile starter, don't expect him to deliver a game-changing performance this week.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (heel) will debut in the Windy City this Sunday against a significantly revamped Tennessee Titans secondary. Allen is expected to be utilized in various roles, with his most significant impact likely coming from the slot, where he received nearly half of his targets in 2023. The Titans will probably match him against Roger McCreary, creating an intriguing clash between experience and youth. Given that L'Jarius Sneed will be focused on covering the outside, Allen should have ample opportunities, provided he is healthy. However, Allen has been dealing with a heel injury, described by GM Ryan Poles as a "cleat issue," and was limited in practice this week. While Allen could serve as a solid flex option for those who drafted him for that role, the combination of his injury and the adjustment to a new team might make it wise to consider alternative options for this week.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze will make his NFL debut this Sunday against a significantly upgraded Tennessee Titans secondary. With the Titans adding L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to their cornerback lineup, they aim to transform a weakness from last season into a strength. While the allure of starting Odunze in Week 1 might be tempting, it's wiser to keep him on the bench for now. Rookies, especially receivers, often take time to develop their fantasy value, and Odunze will be starting behind established stars Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. Although he has the potential to be a standout asset later in the season, his current role makes him a high-risk, boom-or-bust flex option. The Bears' offense should be capable of supporting two key pass catchers, but it remains to be seen who will emerge alongside Moore. While Odunze could make a few notable plays this Sunday, his role and target share are still uncertain, making him a risky play for now.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift is a borderline RB2/RB3 for Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans, who present a challenging matchup. In their final three games of last season, the Titans allowed only 83.7 rushing yards per game, the best in the league during that period. Their defensive line, now bolstered by the addition of T'Vondre Sweatwho stands 6'4 and weighs 366 poundsposes a significant challenge. Sweat's presence is likely to draw double-teams, which could complicate inside runs for Swift. However, Swift might find success running to the edges. In this area, he performed well last year in Philadelphia, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and showing better efficiency and yardage after contact compared to his inside runs. Swift also has the potential to contribute in the passing game. However, the Titans were effective against receiving backs last season, allowing the fourth-fewest receptions and ranking 16th in yards per reception. This game will also be notable for the distribution of snaps, as Swift will share the backfield with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. While Swift will get plenty of work in Week 1, tempering expectations against a formidable run defense is wise.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent wide receiver Kadarius Toney visited the Cleveland Browns for a tryout earlier on Friday, according to Field Yates of ESPN. Toney failed to make the Chiefs roster earlier this offseason and recently visited the Seahawks this week. Toney, who was drafted in the first round by the New York Giants in 2021, has struggled to find his footing at the professional level. He had a career-high 420 yards in his rookie campaign before joining the Chiefs, where he totaled just 169 receiving yards last fall. While Toney has flashed elite speed at times, he held an underwhelming 71% catch rate last season. If Toney were to sign with the Browns, he would likely only be deployed sparingly throughout the season and would not be worth a look in most formats.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is a high-risk, high-reward option as a borderline QB1 against the Tennessee Titans this Sunday. Williams displayed impressive potential during the preseason, with notable throws on the run and exceptional arm angles. However, this will be his first official game, so some growing pains are to be expected. In the preseason, Williams showcased his significant upside with a 13% big-time throw rate and 8.5 yards per attempt despite an adjusted completion rate of 61.1%. Williams must utilize his talented offensive weapons, including DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet, to capitalize on his opportunities, especially given the Titans' potentially improved pass defense. Last year, Tennessee allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and CPOE and had the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. However, they've bolstered their secondary with Quandre Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, and L'Jarius Snead. While the Titans' secondaryfeaturing Sneed (56.6 passer rating allowed in 2023), Roger McCreary, and Awuzie is seen as a strength, their safety corps could be a weak spot. The critical storyline will be how Williams performs in his debut, and leveraging his top targetsnotably Moore, Allen, and Odunzewill be crucial.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (thigh) is questionable for Sunday's season opener, according to Brady Henderson of ESPN. The veteran pass catcher has been dealing with a lingering thigh injury through most of August. Lockett was a limited participant during this week's practices. Fantasy managers should continue to follow the 31-year-old's status prior to their Week 1 matchup against the Denver Broncos. Last season, Lockett once again operated as the No.2 receiver in the Seattle offense and tallied 894 yards and five scores on 79 catches. If Lockett were to miss Sunday's game or participate in the limited capacity, wideouts DK Metcalf and sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba should see an increase in targets.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Pharaoh Brown (foot) was ruled out for the season opener against the Denver Broncos, according to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic. Brown suffered a foot injury earlier in August during a team practice and has not returned to practice yet this week. As a result, the 30-year-old will remain sidelined during Week 1. Fantasy managers should expect Brady Russell and AJ Barner to compete for the No.2 tight end spot on Sunday while Noah Fant sees the lion's share of snaps and targets at the position. Fant has also been dealing with a toe injury but has practiced in a limited capacity this week. Last season as a Patriot, Brown caught just 13 passes for 208 yards a score. Brown will likely not have any fantasy value this season serving in a depth role on the Seattle offense.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (hamstring) was officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, according to ESPN's Senior NFL Insider Adam Schefter. The 35-year-old was limited at practice on Thursday due to tightness and was seen at practice again on Friday. The former Super Bowl champion expressed that he wants to take it "day by day" and that he "wants to play" if he is available. It was a good sign to see Wilson at practice again on Friday but fantasy managers should continue to follow any updates regarding his status entering the weekend. If Wilson were to miss Sunday's season opener, Justin Fields would slot in as the QB1 for Steel City. Fields will likely provide a safe floor from a fantasy perspective, given his ability to run, but a shaky ceiling, given his throwing inconsistencies.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson (ankle) was ruled out for Week 1, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. The Michigan product suffered an ankle sprain that kept him sidelined for all training camp. However, he did begin to practice in a limited capacity this week, but the Steelers will lean on the side of caution for their third-round pick. The 23-year-old could be ready to make his regular-season debut in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos. In his final season at Michigan, the wideout caught 48 passes for 789 yards and 12 scores en route to winning a national championship. Fantasy managers should expect Van Jefferson to serve as the No.2 receiver this weekend, opposite of George Pickens. However, tight end Pat Freiermuth will likely see the most significant target uptick due to Wilson's absence.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints wide receiver A.T. Perry (hand) was listed as questionable on Friday's injury report. The 24-year-old did not participate in the past two practices, which leaves his status unknown for Sunday after hitting the injury report on Thursday with a hand injury. Perry did not show signs of a previous injury earlier in the week, so his placement on the injury report on Thursday seemed very sudden. Fantasy managers should continue to pay close attention to any updates regarding the Wake Forest product's status entering the weekend. Perry should serve as the No.3 wideout in the New Orleans passing attack when on the field. As a rookie last fall, he caught 12 passes for 246 yards and four scores. If Perry were to miss Sunday's season opener, both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed should see a slight uptick in targets.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is fully healthy to begin the season and has the potential to perform as a WR1 in a favorable matchup at the Lions in Week 1. Despite the emergence of last year's rookie breakout Puka Nacua, Kupp remains a favorite target of quarterback Matthew Stafford. His ability to move around the formation helps him get isolated in one-on-one coverage where he can use his shiftiness and route-running savvy to beat opposing defenders. The Lions drafted Terrion Arnold and signed Carlton Davis III in the offseason and each could see time defending Kupp in Week 1. In a potential shootout played in dome conditions, look for Kupp to score a touchdown and potentially get to 100+ receiving yards in the opening week of the season.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler is taking Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) as his pick as the biggest-name QB coming off an injury in 2024 to have a bounce-back performance. Cousins is recovering from an Achilles tear from last year, but the fact that he's a pure pocket passer will make his recovery from the injury that much more easier in 2024. The Falcons offense also has three former top-10 picks in receiver Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts, and Cousins is fully expected to help take all of their games to the next level in his first year in Atlanta. Cousins is expected to be ready to go for Week 1 on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The former Vikings signal-caller isn't on the QB1 radar in fantasy this year while coming off his Achilles injury, but he has the potential to serve as a high-end backup if he stays healthy.
From RotoBaller