RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
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- Bender's Favorite NFL DFS Pick Em Picks: Week 9
- Week 10 Player Rankings
- Week 10 Inactives
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (finger) is a high-end RB2 in Week 10 when the Cardinals host the New York Jets. Conner has been dealing with a finger injury that limited his practice participation earlier in the week; however, he practiced in full on Friday and appears to be good to go for Sunday. Conner is a workhorse back, and his volume has translated into a high number of touchdown opportunities. While there are concerns that his volume might decrease due to the injury and the emergence of rookie running back Trey Benson, his snap count should remain high enough to warrant RB2 consideration. Conner still possesses significant touchdown upside and should receive enough volume to remain a solid RB2 in Week 10 against the Jets.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Williams will make his first appearance for the team in a Week 10 showdown with the 7-2 Washington Commanders. Williams was unable to get on the same page as quarterback Aaron Rodgers in New York but will hope to quickly establish chemistry with Russell Wilson. The Steelers have been linked to Williams since the offseason and should be eager to get him on the field to work opposite George Pickens. While the veteran's role in the offense will be worth monitoring, Williams cannot be expected to immediately garner more opportunities than fellow wideouts Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III. Fantasy managers would be wise to leave Williams on the waiver wire in most redraft formats for the time being.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker (concussion) has again been ruled inactive for Sunday's home matchup against the New England Patriots. Brisker hasn't appeared in a game since the team's Week 5 36-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers, missing the ensuing three outings. More so, -- and even more concerning -- the 25-year-old has yet to even sniff a practice since sustaining the injury, logging a DNP in each opportunity he's gotten. It's an unsettling development for the Penn State alum, as hopefully, he'll be able to at least get in a limited session ahead of Week 11. Safety Elijah Hicks will again get the start, filling in for the injured Brisker.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell is a top-three fantasy scorer at his position this season and will hope to stay productive against the Washington Commanders in Week 10. It's worth noting that the Commanders' defense is much improved from last season and is surrendering the third-fewest fantasy points per contest to opposing kickers. Nonetheless, Boswell is one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL and offers more upside than he did to start the campaign with quarterback Russell Wilson now leading Pittsburgh's offense. Fantasy managers that held onto Boswell through the Steelers' Week 9 bye or managed to add him from free agency should feel confident putting him right back in starting lineups on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (toe/hip) was listed as a limited participant in the team's Friday practice. Robinson picked up a toe injury in the team's thrilling 26-20 OT win over the Seattle Seahawks despite being the hero of the contest. Interestingly enough, he's listed with a hip ailment as well, but when and where that occurred is unclear. Head coach Sean McVay didn't seem too bothered about the 30-year-old wideout's status when asked about him on Thursday but did note they're being cautious with the veteran's toe. He'll have one more opportunity to elevate his practice status before Los Angeles must give him a designation for their Monday night home tilt against the Miami Dolphins. If Robinson can't go, teammates Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson project to pick up some extra snaps for the matchup on Monday Night Football. Keep an eye on his status.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has been nearly unstoppable on the field over the last few weeks. Over the last three games, Otton has hauled in 25 receptions on 30 targets for 258 yards and three touchdowns. The Bucs don't have many reliable pass-catchers right now, so they continue to go to Otton and it's working. The expectation is that the San Francisco 49ers defense will plan around holding Otton in check, but fantasy managers should still play him as a TE1 for Week 10. Otton has been too great lately, so ride with him until he gives you reason not to trust him.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates remains a reliable, high-floor option in Week 10 against the Houston Texans. While Bates benefits from Detroit's high-scoring offense, he has limited upside as Lions head coach Dan Campbell often opts to go for it on fourth down in opposing team territory, reducing Bates' field goal attempts. However, he's attempted just 12 field goals this seasonmaking all of themwhile converting 30 of 31 extra points over eight games. Facing a Texans defense that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to kickers, Bates' scoring potential may be capped. However, his connection to Detroit's prolific offense keeps him streamable, especially in leagues with limited kicker options.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (hamstring) is currently listed as questionable ahead of the Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The rookie wideout sat out during last week's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. McMillan is still dealing with the same injury and is in danger of missing another game. If active, McMillan would be a shaky flex option given him and quarterback Baker Mayfield haven't been on the same page this season. There's decent upside with McMillan, but he's probably not worth the risk against the 49ers defense. Sterling Shepard and Trey Palmer figure to see more attention if McMillan is unable to play.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth was a solid contributor to begin the season but has been incredibly quiet for fantasy since Week 6. He'll hope to get back on track against the Washington Commanders on Sunday. The Commanders allow the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, making this a middle-of-the-road matchup for Freiermuth. He is yet to display much chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson outside of a 30-yard reception the duo connected on in Week 7. Fantasy managers should not be relying on Freiermuth in most formats this week.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Trey Palmer is an avoidable streaming option ahead of the Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The expectation was that Palmer would see increased involvement in the offense with the Bucs banged up at wideout. That hasn't really been the case as Palmer hauled in two of his four targets for 33 yards during last week's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He only played 49 percent of the offensive snaps and that's with fellow wideout Jalen McMillan (hamstring) sidelined as well. Palmer could be worth a stash in dynasty leagues, but isn't a starting option right now.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (toe) has been cleared to play ahead of the Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Irving has been playing through a toe issue lately, but it doesn't seem to be something that is going to impact his performance. He rushed seven times for 24 yards while hauling in all three of his targets for 10 yards during last week's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bucs continue to use a committee approach in the backfield which is mainly Rachaad White and Irving. Neither of them are great fantasy options, but both are on the flex radar for Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams returns from a two-game PED suspension just in time for a Week 10 matchup against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. Known for his boom-or-bust production, Williams has delivered some big games this season (16, 17.7, and 24.4 PPR points) but also has two outings under two points, which has frustrated fantasy managers. Despite his elite speed and role in Detroit's high-powered offense, Williams' target volume has dipped significantly since Week 2. With six deep targets and five red zone looks over six games, Williams still offers a high ceiling in deeper leagues, especially with a modest WR3/FLEX designation in 12-team formats. Facing a Texans defense that has given fits to some receiving corps, Williams may still have enticing upside in smaller leagues
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has slowly been seeing more utilization within the team's offense and will return from a bye to take on the 7-2 Washington Commanders in Week 10. While the Commanders have fared well against pass-catching backs, they surrender the most yards per carry to the position in the NFL. Warren earned three targets in both of his appearances with Russell Wilson under center and should continue to get opportunities through the air as well as on the ground. Although backfield mate Najee Harris has much more touchdown upside than Warren, the latter could still find success in this contest. He is not a dependable starting option but Warren can be viewed as a possible flex play on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard (hamstring, hip) has been cleared to play ahead of the Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Shepard was only able to practice once this week, but it was good enough to get removed from the injury report ahead of this game. Last week, Shepard hauled in four of his five targets for 48 yards in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bucs are still banged up at wideout, so Shepard figures to remain a top passing option. That being said, Shepard will slide onto the flex radar ahead of this Week 10 showdown.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys plan on star defensive end Micah Parsons (ankle) returning to action this weekend, but defensive backs Trevon Diggs (calf) and DaRon Bland (foot) have been ruled questionable and out, respectively. Parsons has been out of the team's lineup since their Week 4 win over the New York Giants, and although he's questionable -- the team expects to have him. On the other hand, Diggs opened the week with back-to-back limited sessions but was downgraded to a non-participant on Friday, so it would appear he's on the wrong side of his designation -- trending toward not playing. Bland has yet to appear in a game this season and has not practiced since the team activated his window on Oct. 30 as he works his way back from a stress fracture in his foot. While Parsons may return, Dallas could be in danger of their defense being severely short-staffed.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens has flashed massive potential with Russell Wilson at quarterback and will look to make the most of his opportunities in a Week 10 clash with the Washington Commanders. Pittsburgh traded for veteran wideout Mike Williams earlier this week, which could prove to be beneficial for Pickens' fantasy output. At this point in his career, Williams is not expected to earn a significant target share, but he should be able to draw some attention away from Pickens. While Washington has not surrendered a ton of passing yards this season, it is tied for the fifth-most touchdowns given up to receivers through nine weeks. Fantasy managers should continue to feel comfortable deploying Pickens as a WR2 with plenty of upside on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was able to salvage his fantasy value with a trip to the end zone last week. White only saw three rushing attempts for 19 yards and a score during last week's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He also hauled in three receptions for an extra 16 yards through the air. It was an extremely quiet night for White outside of the touchdown. The Bucs have gone to a committee approach at running back, which has meant less rushing attempts for White. Lately, White has been able to save his value in the receiving game, but fantasy managers can't always count on that. Fantasy managers should consider White a flex option for the upcoming Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.
From RotoBaller
The Philadelphia Eagles defense will take on the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Starting quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) landed on IR this week after suffering the injury last week in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. With no Prescott, star receiver CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) planning to play through injury, and a slew of injuries on defense, the Cowboys are struggling to say the least. Philadelphia's defense on the other hand has been improving over the past month and now gets to play against a backup quarterback they are familiar with. The fantasy scoring floor for the Eagles' defense is low, but if the hold Dallas to a low point total and can generate a turnover or two, it should be a good fantasy outing for Philly and fantasy managers looking for a spot start.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (neck) has been ruled inactive for Week 10's outing against the Arizona Cardinals. Mosley has been working through a neck ailment that's kept him out of the lineup since New York fell 37-15 to the Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 7. It's of little surprise that he'll miss another game after stringing together three DNPs leading up to this Sunday. With fellow linebacker Chazz Surratt (heel) deemed questionable for the contest after a week of limited sessions, teammate Sam Eguavoen figures to handle most of the duties for the team. He recorded three tackles on 20 snaps in last weekend's win over the Houston Texans.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (toe) is good to go ahead of the Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Mayfield missed the first two days of practice this week, but has now been removed from the injury report. The expectation is that Mayfield's performance would take a significant hit without his two top wide receivers. Instead, Mayfield has thrown five touchdowns with over 500 passing yards in those two contests. The 49ers secondary is no easy challenge, but Mayfield is not someone to bet against this season. Fantasy managers can continue plugging him in as a QB1 until he gives us reason not to.
From RotoBaller
