RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) was carted to the locker room after the first half of Sunday's matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. He won't return. The wideout took a shot to his right leg in the first half, and it was apparent immediately that he was hurt. He'll finish the day with two catches for 23 yards. With Deebo Samuel Sr. (illness) under the weather and Jauan Jennings (hip) ruled out before the contest, the 49ers may need to rely on George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jacob Cowing for the remainder of Week 7.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed was a limited factor in the Packers' 24-22 victory against the Houston Texans in Week 7. Reed, who has been one of the most volatile wide receivers in the league from a fantasy perspective, didn't help his cause today as he caught just 2-of-4 targets for 10 yards. He also added a carry for no gain on the afternoon, as the offensive flowed through a host of other targets on the Packers' offense. Despite Reed's disappointing Week 7, that doesn't diminish the fact that he's a key part of the Packers' passing attack. In Week 8, the Packers will travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. Reed should be a mid-range fantasy WR2 for that matchup with a fantasy-points floor is a bit lower than we'd like to admit, but sizeable fantasy upside.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold went 22-for-27 for 259 yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Detroit Lions in Week 7. He also rushed for 39 yards on four carries during the game.
Fantasy Spin: Darnold has slowed down a bit after an outstanding start to the season but threw for at least 250 yards for the third time this season. He will be on a short week against the Los Angeles Rams and probably should only be an option in two-quarterback leagues.
From TheHuddle
Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones rushed for 93 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries against the Detroit Lions in Week 7. He also caught three passes for 23 yards during the game.
Fantasy Spin: Jones has been dealing with a hamstring injury, but it did not limit him against the Lions. He should be weekly starting option in fantasy leagues as long as he is able to play.
From TheHuddle
Cleveland Browns RB D'Onta Foreman had just two runs for five yards in Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he had no receptions or targets.
From TheHuddle
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks was a solid contributor to the Packers' 24-22 win over the Houston Texans in Week 7. Wicks (shoulder) was a game-time decision for the Packers after leaving in Week 6 with a shoulder injury. After three limited practices during the week, Wicks was good to go for Week 7 as he caught 3-of-6 targets for 48 yards and a 30-yard touchdown on a beautiful throw by Jordan Love. Wicks was second on the Packers in targets (6) and his touchdown was one of three touchdown scores on the day for Love. With the many pass-catchers on the Packers, it can be hard to find consistent footing each week, but the Packers continue to involve Wicks in the offense despite some issues with drops this season. The Packers will head south to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars in Week 8, where for fantasy, Wicks should be a low-end flex play with upside in that contest.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (ribs) won't return to Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers. He'll finish the day by throwing for six yards off 2-for-2 passing, adding 50 yards off three carries. There wasn't much information surrounding his condition after he exited. However, the signal-caller returned to the sidelines in the second half with a smile. Considering the Commanders built a decisive lead, it's unknown if Daniels could have returned. With that in mind, his condition will be monitored closely for the Week 8 meeting with the Chicago Bears. If he can't suit up for that one, Marcus Mariota will presumably be under center.
From RotoBaller
Updating a previous report, Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles) is believed to have suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals. It was a non-contact injury in the second quarter. Head coach Kevin Stefanski said Sunday, Oct. 20, that Watson would go for further testing just to make sure. To make matters worse, QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffered a finger injury, so QB Jameis Winston finished up.
Fantasy Spin: With Watson all but done, it appears that Winston might be the starting signal caller in Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens, although the situation is certainly fluid. Either way, the Cleveland offense is sure to be a mess, even more so than it has been to date.
From TheHuddle
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From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery rushed for 31 yards on nine carries against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7 but also lost a fumble during the game. He also caught three passes for 39 yards against the Vikings.
Fantasy Spin: Montgomery missed some time during the game because of an injury but returned to post 70 total yards. He will be involved in the running and passing game next week and can be at least a flex option in fantasy leagues.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown caught eight passes for 112 yards and one touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7. He was targeted eight times during the game.
Fantasy Spin: St. Brown posted his second 100-yard game of the season and has a touchdown in each of the last four games. He is a weekly starting option in all leagues as long as he is healthy.
From TheHuddle
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From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs was excellent in his second-consecutive game for the Packers as the team edged the Houston Texans 24-22 in Week 7. Doubs led the Packers with 10 targets, eight receptions, and 94 receiving yards as he was a key component of Jordan Love's passing attack. While Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, and Josh Jacobs scored the touchdowns through the air for the Packers, Doubs was very efficient and was the only consistent target-earning for quarterback Jordan Love and the Packers on the afternoon. With so many quality pass-catchers for Love in this excellent Packers' passing attack, Doubs has an emphasis for the Packers following a one-game suspension a couple of weeks ago. With this emphasis on Doubs being a focal point of the offense, consider Doubs a low-end WR3 for the Packers' Week 8 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff went 22-for-25 for 280 yards and two touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7.
Fantasy Spin: Goff has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the last four games and at least 280 yards in each of the last three games. He will be facing a good Tennessee Titans defense next week but could be a possible starting option in some deeper leagues.
From TheHuddle
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 259 yards, one touchdown, and one pick off 22-for-27 passing in Sunday's narrow loss to the Lions. He added four carries for 39 yards. The signal-caller was coming off a horrid performance in the Week 5 overseas loss to the New York Jets. While he played better on Sunday, it still wasn't enough, resulting in the Vikings first loss of the 2024-25 campaign. Minnesota won't have much time to sulk, as the team will meet the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night. Granted, Darnold was more productive earlier in the year. Still, he's worth starting in most fantasy setups.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle caught 1-of-2 targets in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The numbers are all season-low marks for the fourth-year wideout, and the first time in his young career he registered fewer than four targets. No Dolphins pass-catcher recorded more than three targets or two receptions in the contest aside from tight end Jonnu Smith, who led the team with seven catches and 96 yards on seven targets. It's a significant disappointment for Waddle's managers in an excellent matchup. It's anticipated that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will practice ahead of the team's Week 8 outing and might make his return when the Dolphins host the Arizona Cardinals next Sunday. If not, it could be another week of Tim Boyle calling signals with Tyler Huntley (shoulder) forced from Sunday's loss in the second half.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught 1-of-2 targets for eight yards in the team's 16-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He added five rushing yards on his only attempt. Ouch. It's an enormous letdown in a promising matchup for Hill, with Miami coming off a bye in Week 6. The 30-year-old had quarterback troubles again on Sunday when Tyler Huntley (shoulder) left the game and was ruled out in the second half. Tim Boyle entered in relief, but the Dolphins went with a run-heavy game script, attempting just 26 passes to 40 rushes. The ground game was working in their defense, but Hill and wideout Jaylen Waddle combined for just four targets, two catches, and 19 yards. With QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) set to practice ahead of Week 8, the team could see its arrow pointing up in anticipation of a home matchup against the Arizona Cardinals next Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs was solidly effective for the Packers as he capped off his afternoon in Week 7 with a touchdown reception in the Packers' 24-22 victory. Jacobs averaged over 6.0 yards per carry, totaling 72 rushing yards on just 12 carries. Jacobs also caught 5-of-5 targets for 16 yards, including an eight-yard touchdown reception from quarterback Jordan Love in the third quarter. That touchdown grab was the first of his career and ended his streak of 211 receptions without a receiving touchdown; the longest in NFL history. While the passing game was on display for the Packers for much of the game, Jacobs was plenty involved and had a quality day for fantasy purposes. He'll look to continue that momentum as the Packers head south to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8, where Jacobs should be considered a low-end RB1 for that matchup.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith reeled in all seven of his targets for 96 yards and a touchdown in their 16-10 Week 7 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. It was a career day for the 29-year-old veteran, who set a new personal best with his seven receptions. His marks in the matchup were all team-highs, too, as no other Miami pass-catcher recorded more than three targets. It was an excellent performance from Smith, with the 96 yards being his most since he posted 100 in Week 9 last season as a member of the Atlanta Falcons. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa potentially returning in Week 8, the Dolphins' offensive outlook could be on the rise. However, that is nowhere near a guarantee. Miami will now turn their attention to next Sunday when they'll host the visiting Arizona Cardinals.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love tossed three touchdown scores for most of the Packers' scoring on the afternoon as the Packers' edged the Texans 24-22 in Week 7. Love had an up-and-down game with 24-of-33 passing for 220 yards with three touchdown passes and two interceptions. A touchdown pass to Tucker Kraft kicked off the scoring on a beautiful diving play. Minutes later, Love found Dontayvion Wicks for a 30-yard touchdown with a perfect touch pass over the top. The final touchdown pass was Josh Jacobs' first receiving touchdown of his career; an eight-yard dump-off. Love was very good for fantasy production on the afternoon as he continued his streak of multiple-touchdown games in all five games Love has played this season. The Packers head south to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, where Love will be a locked-in QB1 for that pristine matchup in Week 8.
From RotoBaller
