Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf had a quiet outing in Week 1. The Denver Broncos limited Metcalf to three receptions for 29 yards on Sunday. The Seahawks offense had a difficult time getting much going until the third quarter. Additionally, Patrick Surtain II blanketed Metcalf for much of the day. Better days are ahead for Metcalf who drew a tough matchup with Surtain to kick off the season. If the Seahawks offense can play like they did in the second half consistently, then Metcalf will be just fine in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett was excellent against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. Lockett led the team with six receptions for 77 yards on seven targets. Lockett showed a consistent chemistry with Geno Smith that was constantly on display during the 2022 season when Lockett had 1,033 yards and nine touchdowns. Lockett entered the game after nursing a thigh injury for several weeks. However, the injury did not appear to hamper him at all. If Lockett keeps up this production, then he will prove to have been a steal in fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a disappointing outing in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. Smith-Njigba started hot with two receptions for 19 yards in the first quarter. However, Smith-Njigba only earned one more target for the rest of the game. The Seahawks offense as a whole was quiet for the first two quarters and a half. Once the offense got going, it was the Tyler Lockett show in the passing game. Smith-Njigba has a lot of promise in 2024. If the Seahawks offense can play like it did in the second half of Sunday's game, then Smith-Njigba should begin to display solid flex value.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan made his NFL debut against the Washington Commanders on Sunday. The rookie wideout won the No. 3 spot behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to start the season. He was the clear third receiver on this offense during Sunday's game. McMillan hauled in one of his three targets for 32 yards and a touchdown in the win. It appears Evans, Godwin, and even running back Rachaad White are above McMillan on the pecking order for passing. McMillan is worth stashing in deep leagues, but he isn't a viable option on a weekly basis right now.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet had a solid outing in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. He finished the game with eight carries for 12 yards and two receptions for 29 yards and a touchdown. Charbonnet squarely played second fiddle to starting running back Kenneth Walker III (abdominal) until Walker went down with an injury. The Seahawks did not get going on offense until the second half. Charbonnet contributed to the Seahawks' barrage of scoring in the fourth quarter on a 30-yard reception where he was left wide open. Charbonnet's lack of contribution prior to Walker's injury demonstrates his entrenchment as the backup. However, if Walker were to miss any time, then Charbonnet would be a must-start.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith threw for 171 yards and one touchdown along with one interception in his season debut. Smith added 30 yards and a touchdown on the ground. His 34-yard run for a touchdown was his best highlight of the day. Smith started the game slow and threw an interception on his second pass of the game. However, Smith rebounded nicely and finished with a 72% completion rate. His rushing baseline carried him to 18.84 fantasy points on Sunday. Smith's fantasy output was similar to his games during his breakout 2022 campaign two years ago. The Seahawks offense clicked in the second half of Sunday's game and Smith capitalized. He will look to carry that momentum into New England in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy caught three of his eight targets for 25 yards and a touchdown in a 33-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. Jeudy made a decent debut with his new team, catching a six-yard pass for Deshaun Watson's only TD toss of the afternoon. The veteran finished second on the team in targets as he instantly slotted in as the team's WR2 behind Amari Cooper in his first game as a Cleveland Brown. The Cleveland offense struggled greatly against a tough Dallas defense in the loss but Jeudy's early role in the offense is encouraging. He should be treated as a solid WR3/flex option moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin did everything he could during Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders. The Bucs moved Godwin back to the slot and it paid off for them in Week 1. The veteran wideout hauled in all eight of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown in the win. Godwin got out of the gate slowly last season and he made sure that didn't happen again. Both Godwin and Mike Evans should have no problem getting the ball in this pass-heavy offense on a weekly basis. Godwin should be a solid WR2 in PPR formats going forward.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Foster Moreau (concussion) is officially in the league's concussion protocol, per head coach Dennis Allen. Moreau picked up the injury in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 47-10 thrashing of the Carolina Panthers. He hauled in all four of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown on a day where everything fell the Saints' way. The veteran tight end racked up the second-most yards, targets, and receptions on his team and finished the day with just one less target than Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson combined. Quarterback Derek Carr looked very comfortable in a new Saints' offense, and Moreau will now need to progress through the league's protocol before he is cleared to suit up for New Orleans' Week 2 road matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. If he is not ready to roll, expect Johnson to take on the bulk of the more traditional tight-end duties for the Saints.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving put together a fairly nice NFL debut during Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders. The rookie back won the No. 2 job behind Rachaad White during training camp. Irving made the most of his chances during Sunday's game. He rushed nine times for 62 yards in the blowout win. To be fair, Irving saw most of his yardage come on a 31-yard run in the fourth quarter. However, the rookie back did look solid as he was finding holes and making smart decisions as a runner. White remains the workhorse back in Tampa Bay, but Irving could start stealing away some of those touches. Irving is still a shaky option for Week 2, but he should be stashed in most fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (knee) was targeted five times in a Week 1 win over the Cleveland Browns. He made three catches and gained 15 yards before having to be helped off the field after a catch in the third quarter. After the game, head coach Mike McCarthy said Ferguson was "in good spirits and moving around well." More information will certainly come out soon, but for now it does not seem like Ferguson will need to miss any significant time. Just in case, Luke Schoonmaker is next up on the Cowboys tight end depth chart.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was heavily involved in the offense during Sunday's Week 1 matchup against the Washington Commanders. The 25-year-old continued to be the workhorse back in this one. He rushed 15 times for 31 yards as White couldn't get anything going on the ground. Luckily, White was able to salvage his fantasy value with six receptions for 75 yards through the air. His struggles on the ground are a concern, but not too alarming considering how well he does as a receiver. White should continue being a significant part of this offense going forward. Fantasy managers in PPR formats should be able to plug White in as a RB2 for Week 2 against the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey made all seven of his kicks in a Week 1 win over the Cleveland Browns. He made four field goals and three extra points, putting up 15 of the Cowboys 33 points. Aubrey's field goals came from 57, 40, 50, and 46 yards out. He was the top-scoring fantasy kicker last season and could very well be on his way to doing that again this year.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans had seemingly no issues during Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders. The veteran wideout has been one of the most consistent players throughout his career. That trend continued during Sunday's game as Evans hauled in five receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns in the win. To be fair, the Commanders secondary is shaky, but Evans took advantage of that with two fairly easy touchdowns. Fantasy managers should be able to plug Evans in as WR1 on a weekly basis going forward.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught three passes for 42 yards and a touchdown in the team's 34-28 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. His score came on a screen pass from 11 yards out late in the third quarter to give the Bills the lead for good. The touchdown saved what was a low-volume, mediocre stat line. Shakir earned three targets, two fewer than rookie Keon Coleman and the same number as running back James Cook. Nine different receivers recorded a catch on Sunday as Josh Allen spread his 23 completions throughout the offense. The target distribution will prevent Shakir from being much more than a WR4 when the Bills travel to Miami for Thursday Night Football in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks scored a touchdown in a Week 1 win over the Cleveland Browns. Cooks was targeted seven times, making four catches for 40 yards. His touchdown came in the first quarter on a 21-yard pass from quarterback Dak Prescott. Cooks mostly played a support role in the passing game last season, but he did occasionally play a larger role like he did in this one. He's a tough fantasy asset to roster because of his up-and-down performances, but he could certainly develop into an asset behind alpha WR1 CeeDee Lamb.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield made easy work of the Washington Commanders defense on Sunday. He was able to escape pressure and looked at ease in the pocket throughout most of the game. He completed 24-of-30 passing attempts for 289 yards and four touchdowns in the 37-20 victory. Mayfield spread around the love with two touchdowns to Mike Evans, one to Chris Godwin, and his final touchdown to Jalen McMillan. This Bucs offense appears to have multiple capable scoring options which is a great thing for this team. To be fair, the Commanders defense is awful, but Mayfield capitalized and did what he was supposed to. Fantasy managers should consider Mayfield a possible low-end QB1 for the Week 2 matchup against the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel logged two catches on two targets for 15 yards in the team's 34-28 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Samuel appears to be the odd man out of the Buffalo wide receiver rotation. Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Mack Hollins were the three receivers on the field the most. Samuel, meanwhile, played a handful of snaps and ran just 9 routes, according to Pro Football Focus. If Samuel continues to be the backup slot receiver to Shakir, he won't be worth a roster spot in standard-sized fantasy football leagues. Fantasy managers should keep him on the bench for another week to confirm his spot in the Buffalo pecking order. The Bills travel to Miami for a divisional tilt on Thursday Night Football in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
ynasty | Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers had five catches for 66 yards in his NFL debut. Dynasty Analysis: Based on the way Daniel Jones played, this has to be considered a minor miracle. It's clear Nabers has some next-level talent but this offense already looks putrid. New York plays at Washington next week in a game that feels pretty important in terms of what we can expect in terms of fantasy value for Nabers moving forward. He remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues but he could have some ups and downs this year playing in what looks to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL already.
Dynasty | Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby had 12 carries for 73 yards in Jacksonville's week one loss to the Dolphins. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Bigsby's 12 carries matched those of Travis Etienne. As we heard all off-season, it certainly does seem the Jaguars have no desire to have Etienne simply carry the mail week after week. This is a big development in dynasty leagues as it could vault Bigsby into relevance and knock Etienne down to RB2 territory. We'll see what happens next week but Bigsby's 6.1 yards per carry outshined Etienne's 3.7 on the day, making this a huge dynasty story. Stay tuned.