Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Dynasty | 49ers running back Jordan Mason had 147 rushing yards, one catch, five receiving yards and a touchdown in San Francisco's blowout win over the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: With Christian McCaffrey out for the game (and maybe longer), Mason dominated the Jets defense, averaging over five yards per carry and controlling the game. While he's not going to make anyone forget about McCaffrey, Mason proved he can (and will) carry the load when CMC can't play. Even more promising is the fact Mason had every single running back touch in the game for the 49ers. He's a must-start RB1 next week should McCaffrey miss another week, as expected. In fact, this performance does nothing but buy CMC time to get healthy. Plan accordingly.
Dynasty | Jets running back Breece Hall had 54 rushing yards, five catches, 39 receiving yards and a touchdown in New York's loss to the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Hall had little chance against a stout 49ers defense that dominated the line of scrimmage. The fact he was able to post a decent line in this one was borderline amazing. Hall will certainly be better as the season goes on and remains an elite-level RB1 despite what looks like a bit of a slow start.
Dynasty | Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 13-of-21 passes for 161 yards with one touchdown and one interception in New York's MNF loss to the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Rodgers and the offense had little chance to be successful as San Francisco carved up the Jets defense en route to a 39:21 advantage in time of possession. When the Jets did have the ball, Rodgers looked like his old self in terms of arm strength and accuracy, though he did look a little out of sorts at time. There's no need to panic as better days are surely ahead for this group. Rodgers himself is a habitual slow starter, so the story here is him simply making it through the game healthy. He remains a low-end QB1 at the moment.
Dynasty | Jets running back Braelon Allen had eight rushing yards, one catch, and nine receiving yards in his NFL debut. Dynasty Analysis: Allen was the talk of the dynasty rookie sleeper town for the past couple of months but it's clear the Jets are going to make Breece Hall a true workhorse. Allen has immense dynasty upside and is a great rookie stash on a roster. However, early returns from him are not going to be good and dynasty managers will need to be very patient. He'd be a borderline RB1 should Hall miss time, however.
Dynasty | Kirk Cousins is already under the microscope after a rough week one performance in his Atlanta debut. Dynasty Analysis: There's no need to panic here, but this is life in the NFL when a team drafts your eventual replacement. Cousins completed just 16-of-26 passes for 155 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in his Falcons debut - an ugly loss to the Steelers. This is likely due to him sitting out the entire preseason and missing most of last year after being injured, so there's no real legitimate concern. However, a few more clunker games like this and Cousins may start to be evaluated. This is simply something to keep in the back of the minds of dynasty managers as the season moves forward and Michael Penix continues to progress.
Dynasty | The Rams have placed wide receiver Puka Nacua on injured reserve. Dynasty Analysis: Uh oh. Nacua will now miss at least the next four weeks and we won't see him until week seven at the earliest after the Rams have their bye week - this means dynasty managers will be without him until at least October 20th, a brutal blow to just about any dynasty franchise this year. Cooper Kupp will soak up a massive amount of targets and dynasty managers need to plan accordingly. As for Nacua, this is a short-term issue and won't affect anything other than his short-term outlook.
Dynasty | Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had three catches for 13 yards in the Lions win against the Rams. Dynasty Analysis: It's just one week but it's also clear Jameson Williams is going to get more targets than last season. Still, this is likely going to be St. Brown's worst game and anyone who is getting anxious probably doesn't have the stomach for fantasy football. Stay the course. Things will get better. St. Brown is still a top-five option each week.
Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo caught both his targets for 15 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Chicago. Quarterback Will Levis could not get the passing game going most of the game, which led to down weeks for all Titans' pass catchers. Okonkwo was able to bail out fantasy managers with his touchdown grab, an incredibly impressive catch in the back right corner of the end zone over a defender. It was a tough day for the position overall, as Oknkwo finished as TE6 on the week heading into the Monday night game with only 9.5 PPR points. While he had a fine fantasy day because of the score, playing Okonkwo on a weekly basis is still not recommended if this passing attack can't improve considerably from Week 1. Okonkwo and the Titans offense will have their work cut out for them when the Jets travel to Nashville next week.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell is confident that defensive lineman D.J. Reader (quad) will play in Week 2. Reader has been out with a quad injury he suffered in Week 15 with the Cincinnati Bengals last season. He signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the Lions in the offseason. Reader is a game-wrecker at times at defensive tackle and should only boost the Lions' excellent defense upon his return. After a solid performance against the Rams in Week 1, the Lions' D/ST could be on the rise with Reader approaching a return.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor entered the game in the fourth quarter for starter Aaron Rodgers in the team's loss to San Francisco on Monday night. Taylor completed 6 of 8 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown. The veteran quarterback found Allen Lazard on a 3-yard TD connection with 25 seconds remaining in the game. If nothing else, Taylor's performance shows he is a worthy backup option for Rodgers, who is now 40 years old and coming off of a significant Achilles injury. Not much to see here fantasy-wise while Rodgers is healthy, however.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers are set to sign veteran defensive end Charles Harris, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reports. Harris, a former first-round pick of the Miami Dolphins has 16.5 career sacks. Most recently, Harris recorded 1.5 sacks for the Detroit Lions last season. The Panthers are looking for a spark with Derrick Brown (meniscus) reportedly feared to have a season-ending injury. Harris could provide a veteran presence and still might have some pass-rush juice left in the tank. The Panthers D/ST should still be avoided for fantasy purposes.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk hauled in two of his three targets for 40 yards in the team's Week 1 win over the Jets. Juszczyk was on the field for 40 snaps and ran 17 routes. The versatile back made the most of his three targets in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. However, he did not see any carries out of the backfield. Despite being a fullback, Juszczyk operates as a second tight end in a lot of ways. Until he sees more targets, though, he is not a fantasy-relevant player. He's a great weapon for a loaded 49ers offense and creates mismatches on the field but he just doesn't get the volume necessary for fantasy purposes.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent DE Charles Harris (Lions) agreed to an undisclosed deal with the Carolina Panthers Tuesday, Sept. 10.
From TheHuddle
New York Jets backup running back Braelon Allen saw limited usage out of the Jets' backfield in the team's Week 1 loss at San Francisco. Allen carried one time for eight yards and caught his lone target for nine yards. All in all, Allen saw eight total snaps compared to 42 for starter Breece Hall. Most of Allen's time on the field came in mop-up duty and he ran seven routes on his eight snaps. The rookie from Wisconsin is just 20 years old and could see his role expand as the team gains more trust in the youngster. However, Hall is one of the most dominant backs in the league and should command a lion's share of the touches. Barring injury to Hall, Allen is not fantasy-relevant at the moment.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons DT David Onyemata revised his contract Tuesday, Sept. 10, to free up $4.85 million of salary cap space.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is sore after Week 1 but should be good to go in practice this week according to a report from NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. Jackson missed Monday's practice to open a long week of preparation for Week 2 against the Raiders after facing the Chiefs in the NFL opener on Thursday night. But the expectation is he will be back practicing the rest of the week. Jackson rushed 16 times for 122 yards in the opener and was 26-of-41 passing for 273 yards and a touchdown. His rushing usage stands out and makes him one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy. He should be locked and loaded as QB1 against Las Vegas after this report.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets defense struggled to slow down the San Francisco 49ers in a 32-19 loss in Week 1's Monday night game. New York picked up three sacks but was unable to force any turnovers as the 49ers kicked six field goals to down the Jets in the season opener. The Jets got sacks from Sauce Gardner, Micheal Clemons, and Tony Adams but also allowed the 49ers to roll up 401 yards of total offense with Christian McCaffrey inactive. That being said, things should be much easier for New York in Week 2's matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle provided fantasy managers with modest production in the team's 32-19 home-opening victory against the New York Jets. The colorful 30-year-old finished the night in a three-way tie for the team lead in targets with five, which he parlayed into four receptions for 40 yards. In recent memory, Kittle has been the quintessential boom/bust fantasy asset at a boom/bust position but still managed to finish as the TE5 in half-PPR scoring last season. He surely has better -- and worse -- weeks coming. Fantasy players who drafted the "Tight End University" co-founder should keep rolling him out there until further notice, including in Week 2 when the Niners go to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin caught one of his two targets for a six-yard gain in a 32-19 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Conklin was quiet in his season debut, although he was on the field a lot. The 49ers dominated the time of possession battle in this contest, resulting in Aaron Rodgers attempting just 21 passes. Conklin could have bigger games ahead of him but he is not a must-hold in redraft leagues as the Jets prepare to take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein made his lone extra-point try and did not attempt any field goals in a 32-19 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Zuerlein's number was not called often as the Jets were down big after halftime and attempted two-point conversions following both of their second-half touchdowns. Zuerlein will have better days ahead in more favorable matchups. He will now prepare to take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.
From RotoBaller