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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Jalen Hurts Jan 4 10:30am ET
Jalen Hurts

The Dallas Cowboys defense is coming off of a brutal Week 17 outing in which they surrendered 41 points to the Philadelphia Eagles without quarterback Jalen Hurts (concussion, finger) under center. Week 18 will not be any easier, as the Washington Commanders plan to play all of their starters to shoot for the six-seed rather than the seven-seed in the playoffs. The unit played well in Week 12's matchup against Washington, recording four sacks, two forced fumbles, and two interceptions, but there are many better options this week. Look elsewhere for your Week 18 fantasy defense.

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Jake Ferguson Jan 4 10:20am ET
Jake Ferguson

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has had a disappointing season thus far, as he has failed to record a single touchdown. The 25-year-old has caught 57 passes for 482 yards and despite CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) missing last week's game, he was not the top option in the passing game. Given the lack of weapons in Dallas' offense this week Ferguson can be started in Week 18 but again has a low floor, especially given that quarterback Trey Lance is expected to see significant snaps.

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Brandon Aubrey Jan 4 10:20am ET
Brandon Aubrey

Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey is coming off of a rough outing in which he made his lone extra point attempt but missed his lone field goal attempt in a blowout loss to Philadelphia. The 29-year-old kicker will look to bounce back in the season's finale against the Washington Commanders, although the Dallas offense looks inept with CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) on the shelf. Aubrey missed two field goals in the previous matchup against Washington and it appears that Dallas may be rotating quarterbacks this week, making it a questionable offensive situation. However, Aubrey is one of the most consistent kickers in the league. He can be started but beware that he has a wide range of outcomes in Week 18.

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Jalen Tolbert Jan 4 10:10am ET
Jalen Tolbert

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert (finger) fully practiced all week, avoiding an injury designation prior to Week 18's matchup with the Washington Commanders. Tolbert slots in alongside Brandin Cooks to form the starting receiver group in the season's finale after scoring the team's lone touchdown a week ago. The third-year receiver has now caught a touchdown in four of the last six games and caught two passes for 22 yards and a score in the previous game against Washington. He can be started as a deep-league flex option but beware that he has a low floor given the uncertainty at quarterback with Trey Lance potentially due for significant snaps.

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Jonnu Smith Jan 4 10:10am ET
Jonnu Smith

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith remains an appealing fantasy option ahead of Sunday's Week 18 contest against the New York Jets. There are many moving parts ahead of the Dolphins' regular-season finale, including the injury statuses of key offensive weapons such as Tua Tagovailoa (hip), Jaylen Waddle (knee), and Tyreek Hill (wrist, illness). As it stands, Tagovailoa is expected to be sidelined, leaving Tyler Huntley as the Dolphins' starting quarterback for the second week in a row. Smith saw a significantly reduced target share with Huntley under center last week, catching three of four targets for 26 yards. He had his lowest target total, reception total, yardage total, and snap share since Week 10. However, he managed to snag a touchdown pass in the win, salvaging his fantasy performance and giving him seven consecutive games with double-digit fantasy points (PPR). He ranks as the overall TE4 this season, and while the insertion of Huntley under center does lower Smith's ceiling and floor, we still view the 29-year-old tight end as a top-eight fantasy option at his position heading into Week 18.

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KaVontae Turpin Jan 4 10:10am ET
KaVontae Turpin

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver/return specialist KaVontae Turpin should again be involved on offense in Week 18's matchup against the Washington Commanders. Turpin saw four targets and two carries in last week's blowout loss and without CeeDee Lamb (shoulder), the team lacks playmakers. Mike McCarthy will be looking for ways to get the ball into the hands of the speedy special teamer. While opportunities don't always translate into fantasy points, Turpin should see more opportunity than usual and is a deep-league flex option in the season's final game.

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Tanner McKee Jan 4 10:00am ET
Tanner McKee

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee is set to make his first official NFL start in Week 18 as the team hosts the New York Giants. With both Jalen Hurts (concussion/rest) and Kenny Pickett (ribs) sidelined due to injuries, McKee will lead the offense in what could be a low-pressure environment, given the Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. McKee flashed potential in limited action last week, stepping in for the injured Pickett and completing three of four passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns. However, with mostly all of Philadelphia's offensive weapons expected to rest, McKee will have to make the most of a supporting cast consisting primarily of backups. While the Giants defense hasn't been particularly dominant, McKee's success will depend on his ability to adapt quickly and minimize mistakes. He remains a deep-league dart throw in Week 18.

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Rico Dowdle Jan 4 10:00am ET
Rico Dowdle

Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle will look to top off his surprising breakout season in Week 18 against the Washington Commanders with a splash. The 26-year-old has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games and now faces a solid matchup against Washington's 20th-ranked run defense. He will look to solidify his finish as an RB2 on the season. Dowdle is in RB1 territory heading into the season's finale and should be started in any leagues that run into Week 18.

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Grant Calcaterra Jan 4 10:00am ET
Grant Calcaterra

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Grant Calcaterra faces the New York Giants in Week 18 and his role will likely be limited but unknown to what extent. With Dallas Goedert (knee) having his 21-day practice window opening this week, there's a chance he plays and sees a few snaps to shake off rust before the playoffs. Additionally, backup C.J. Uzomah (abdominal) was placed on IR, so that now adds E.J. Jenkins to the mix, who could very well see significant playing time. Calcaterra has stepped in admirably during Goedert's absence but has yet to carve out a reliable role in the offense. While the Giants' defense has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, the uncertainty surrounding Calcaterra's workload makes him a risky fantasy option in Week 18.

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Jake Elliott Jan 4 10:00am ET
Jake Elliott

Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott helps host the New York Giants in Week 18. Elliot has booted multiple field goals in three consecutive games, showcasing his reliability despite struggles from beyond 50 yards, where he is just one-for-seven this season. This week, Elliott's opportunities could be impacted by Philadelphia resting key starters with their playoff seed locked in. While the offense may lack its usual explosiveness, Elliott could still find himself in scoring situations, particularly in a matchup against a Giants defense that allows the 11th-most points per game this season. Fantasy managers can count on Elliott's accuracy from within 50 yards, though expectations should be tempered due to the potential of reduced offensive output.

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Brandin Cooks Jan 4 10:00am ET
Brandin Cooks

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks is a flex option as Dallas' projected top receiver in Week 18. Cooks led the Cowboys in all receiving benchmarks in Week 17, the first game without CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) in the fold. Washington's defense ranks 12th against opposing receivers, and there is uncertainty at the quarterback position, with rumblings that quarterback Trey Lance should see significant reps this week. However, Cooks remains the top receiving option on the active roster and can be started this week.

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Michael Wilson Jan 4 9:50am ET
Michael Wilson

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson (hamstring) was added to the injury report on Friday after being a limited participant in practice. He is officially listed as questionable to face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday in Week 18. It's hard to gather much information from the Cardinals' injury report given that "limited" could mean a few different things. Wilson could have simply taken a few reps off, but he also could have injured himself in the middle of Friday's session and sat out the rest of the practice. For the time being, he should be viewed as a true game-time decision, which means we might not get confirmation on his status until 2:55 p.m. ET on Sunday. If Wilson does play, he'll likely rank as a low-end WR3 in fantasy football. The 49ers have posted mixed results against pass-catchers in 2024, surrendering the eighth-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers but the seventh-most fantasy points to slot receivers. Wilson has played 31.7 percent of his snaps from the slot this season, which is the 27th-highest mark in the NFL. We like his chances to see a respectable target share against a 49ers defense that could rest some of its starters. However, if most of his production comes from the slot, there will be a cap on his touchdown upside.

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Jahan Dotson Jan 4 9:50am ET
Jahan Dotson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson will take on an expanded role in Week 18 against the New York Giants, as the team is expected to rest its usual starters, including A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Dotson has struggled to make an impact recently, failing to catch a pass in each of the last two games. However, with the absence of Brown and Smith, Dotson should see a significant increase in targets. This season, Dotson has recorded 12 receptions on 22 targets for 122 yards, along with one rushing attempt for 13 yards. While the Giants boast a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, Dotson's increased volume makes him a potential boom-or-bust option in deeper fantasy formats this week.

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Johnny Wilson Jan 4 9:50am ET
Johnny Wilson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Johnny Wilson is poised for an uptick in playing time in Week 18 against the New York Giants. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith expected to rest ahead of the playoffs, Wilson could find himself with more opportunities in the passing game. Wilson has not caught a pass in six consecutive games, but he has shown flashes earlier this season, with two receptions for 14 yards, including a touchdown. At 6-foot-7, Wilson's size makes him an intriguing red zone option for Tanner McKee and/or Ian Book. Wilson's potential involvement makes him a speculative play in deeper leagues.

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Cooper Rush Jan 4 9:50am ET
Cooper Rush

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is expected to start, but backup quarterback Trey Lance is expected to see "significant snaps" in the Week 18 matchup against the Washington Commanders. With the likely split at the quarterback position, neither player is worth starting in any format for fantasy purposes in the season's finale. Rush is an unrestricted free agent following this season, so there is a chance that this is his final game in a Cowboys' uniform.

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Kenneth Gainwell Jan 4 9:50am ET
Kenneth Gainwell

Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell is set to take on starting duties in Week 18 against the New York Giants, with Saquon Barkley sitting out to rest for the playoffs. Rookie Will Shipley's status could impact Gainwell's role, as Shipley is still in concussion protocol. If cleared, Shipley is expected to share backfield duties, likely limiting Gainwell's touches. This season, Gainwell has posted 276 rushing yards and one touchdown on 64 carries, adding 14 receptions for 107 yards through the air. Regardless of Shipley's status, the Eagles may elevate Tyrion Davis-Price from the practice squad to provide additional depth, ensuring a mix of backs takes the field. Given the uncertainty surrounding usage and the backup-heavy nature of Philadelphia's lineup, Gainwell is a risky but intriguing option for Week 18, especially in deeper fantasy leagues.

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Trey McBride Jan 4 9:50am ET
Trey McBride

Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride will look to remain dominant and highly productive during Sunday's Week 18 contest against the San Francisco 49ers. McBride has been the No. 3 tight end in fantasy football this season, posting career-bests in targets (136), catches (104), and yards (1,081). The lone downside of McBride's third NFL campaign has been his lack of touchdowns; he didn't find the end zone until last week's showing against the Los Angeles Rams in which he had 12 catches for 123 yards and the score. The 25-year-old has been Kyler Murray's favorite target within the Arizona offense, and that trend should continue during Sunday's regular-season finale. McBride benefits from a very favorable role on offense, as well as an appealing matchup against the 49ers, who surrendered six catches, 64 yards, and one touchdown to tight end Sam LaPorta last week. He remains a must-start player, ranking as a high-end TE1 once again.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. Jan 4 9:40am ET
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.'s underwhelming rookie season will come to an end with Sunday's Week 18 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The No. 4 pick has 57 catches for 822 yards and seven touchdowns over the course of 16 games, ranking 34th among wide receivers in fantasy points (PPR) this season. These numbers are solid enough to make him a weekly FLEX option, but managers would have expected a bit more production out of Harrison, who was widely viewed as a generational prospect. Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals, and his fantasy managers, Harrison's season could end on a sour note as he takes on a strong 49ers secondary. San Francisco has struggled against slot receivers this season, but they've allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers in 2024. Harrison primarily plays on the perimeter, taking fewer than one-fifth of his snaps from the slot. As a result, he could have a lower floor in Week 18. Fantasy managers should continue to view him as a mid-to-high WR3 option in most leagues.

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Demarcus Robinson Jan 4 9:30am ET
Demarcus Robinson

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson has been highly unproductive lately, failing to catch any of his five targets over the last four weeks. However, he's back on the fantasy radar given that he could operate as the Rams' No. 1 wide receiver in Week 18 against the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams have already confirmed that they will rest Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on Sunday, leaving Robinson atop the depth chart while players like Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, and Jordan Whittington also see increased roles. Robinson played at least 85 percent of the offensive snaps in every game that both Nacua and Kupp missed this season, and he'll likely have similar involvement in the Rams' regular-season finale. With that said, he does have a slightly lower floor with Jimmy Garoppolo starting in place of Matthew Stafford. Garoppolo is a proven veteran, but the quarterback change still brings a small amount of uncertainty to Robinson's Week 18 outlook. He should be treated as a mid-to-low WR3 option in fantasy football against a Seahawks defense allowing the fifth-most touchdowns to wide receivers in 2024.

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Michael Carter Jan 4 9:30am ET
Michael Carter

Arizona Cardinals running back Michael Carter is expected to start in Week 18 against the San Francisco 49ers after James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) were both placed on injured reserve. Conner had a minimal role last weekend due to injury, allowing Carter to handle an impressive 72 percent snap share. He thrived with the increased opportunities, rushing 13 times for 70 yards on the ground while adding two catches for another 11 yards through the air. He now has seven targets, seven catches, and 41 receiving yards over his last two contests. Not only is Carter's role favorable but so is his matchup. The 25-year-old is set to face off against the 49ers, who have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing touchdowns, and seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. Carter ranks as a decent RB2 option heading into fantasy football for Week 18.

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