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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18

Player Notes
Cade York Jan 4 12:30pm ET
Cade York

Cincinnati Bengals kicker Cade York will be a borderline starting kicking option for fantasy managers with the Bengals trying to keep their faint playoff hopes alive with a win on Saturday against the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the Week 18 regular-season finale. The 23-year-old missed a 33-yarder in overtime last Saturday in the eventual victory over the Denver Broncos, his second straight week with a missed field goal. Since taking over for Evan McPherson (groin), York has made five of his seven field-goal opportunities while going 13-for-14 on extra points for the Bengals. McPherson is eligible to return from Injured Reserve this weekend, but it will be York kicking in his fifth straight game. He's certainly not the most reliable fantasy kicker, but given Cincy's high-scoring offense, he's at least in play as a streamer in what should be one of the most competitive games of the week.

From RotoBaller

Devon Achane Jan 4 12:30pm ET
Devon Achane

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane will be looking to bounce back as a strong RB1 for fantasy managers in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival New York Jets in a must-win game for Miami. Achane put up a dud for fantasy managers with a 10-carry, 25-yard performance in the win over the Cleveland Browns last week, adding two catches for 13 yards. While that was a frustrating performance for those in championship matchups, the 23-year-old has been a top-10 fantasy RB this year and needs to remain locked into starting lineups this weekend, even with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (hip) looking likely to miss a second straight game. Achane has seen double-digit carries in all but two games this year and should see as much work as he can handle against the Jets in a game Miami must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

From RotoBaller

Brenton Strange Jan 4 12:10pm ET
Brenton Strange

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange has been an inconsistent fantasy asset this season, and should continue that way in Week 18. He could be in line for more involvement in the passing game this week given the game doesn't matter and the Colts pass defense was gashed last week by Drew Lock and the Giants offense. That likely means more touchdowns and more success through the air than normal for Mac Jones, who may be fighting for a starting job with another team next season. With that being said, Strange has had some stinkers as of late, and hasn't done much besides an 11 catch, 73 yard performance against the New York Jets. Unless he can find the endzone, Strange is an extreme boom-or-bust tight end in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Cam Little Jan 4 12:10pm ET
Cam Little

Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little should have at least a decent outing in the final week of the season against the Indianapolis Colts. The rookie kicker has had a solid season overall and will look to finish his first season strong. Along with many other players on the team, this game is more about auditioning for next season for Little. After a big offensive outburst for the New York Giants last week against the Colts, the Jaguars offense could be in for a similar outing in what is a similarly built offense currently. That could mean plenty of kicking opportunities for Little, who has proven he has the leg and accuracy to be a solid kicker long-term and in fantasy. Little has surprising upside compared to previous weeks in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Tank Bigsby Jan 4 12:00pm ET
Tank Bigsby

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby has decent upside against the Indianapolis Colts in the final week of the season. The New York Giants offense was great last week against the Colts, so the Jaguars could be in line for a good offensive game as well. Bigsby would likely be the recipient of a touchdown if that were the case. Also, given the game doesn't mean anything for either team besides draft position, the young back could be in line for extra work as an audition for next season. Bigsby came on strong this season with some big games, both with and without Travis Etienne Jr. in the lineup. The two will likely be battling it out for starter next season, and that competition could start this week. Given that extra motivation, Bigsby seems like a solid flex start with some upside in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Harrison Butker Jan 4 11:50am ET
Harrison Butker

Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker will face the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Butker knocked through his only field goal attempt in Week 17 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chiefs kicker also nailed two extra-point attempts in that contest. Butker will now face the Broncos in Denver. Given the strength of the Broncos defense and the lack of Patrick Mahomes in the offense, Butker could be asked to shoulder more of the scoring load. Butker is ranked as the 20th-best kicker this week, putting him outside of start-worthy range for most leagues. The Chiefs offense could be inept without several key starters, making Butker a risky play this week.

From RotoBaller

Travis Etienne Jan 4 11:50am ET
Travis Etienne

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. doesn't have much upside in a meaningless final game against the Indianapolis Colts. Etienne Jr. has been splitting touches out of the backfield with Tank Bigsby for most of the season, and Bigsby has looked like the better back for the most part. The 25-year-old back has had a disappointing season due to the lackluster offense and less-than-ideal volume. That shouldn't change this week and could even sway more towards Bigsby given he is the younger of the two backs. On the contrary, the two backs could also be playing to make a case for more volume next year, which could mean both have solid outings despite limited volume. Consider Etienne Jr. a decent starting option in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Parker Washington Jan 4 11:40am ET
Parker Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Parker Washington could serve as a decent replacement flex against the Indianapolis Colts. With many top players resting in the season's final week, you can do much worse than Washington. Last week he up put three receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown. After Drew Lock and the Giants offense cooked the Colts in Week 17, the Jaguars offense will try to do the same in what is a meaningless game for them. Besides Brian Thomas Jr., everyone on the Jaguars offense will be trying to showcase they deserve a significant role next season. As an injury replacement who has been solid but not really a standout, this game could be important for him long term. Expect a decent performance out of Washington in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Worthy Jan 4 11:40am ET
Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy may face the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Over the past few weeks, the rookie receiver has stepped up and become the focal point of the Kansas City offense. Given how important he is to the Chiefs, it would be reasonable to assume he could be rested in Week 18 along with the other starters. Worthy was not listed on the Chiefs injury report, so he could still play against the Broncos this week. The Broncos rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season, making them a neutral matchup. Worthy is ranked WR42 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, making him a flex option this week. Fantasy managers starting Worthy should watch the pre-game inactives because the rookie may find himself on that list.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Pitts Jan 4 11:30am ET
Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts caught four of five passes from Michael Penix Jr. last week, going for 44 yards and a TD, however, the week before he caught a single pass from the lefty QB. So, there still isn't consistent involvement with his new QB yet, and it would be hard to trust him in the final week of the season as the 6-foot-6 pass catcher has produced five games of one catch or fewer in the last eight, while his TD last week was his first since Week 8. The 24-year-old does draw a favorable matchup, though, as the Falcons take on the Panthers in a must-win game to finish off the regular season. The Panthers have allowed the second-most fantasy production to TEs this season, and Pitts hauled in three catches for 70 yards earlier this season against them. Additionally, Darnell Mooney (shoulder) was a DNP on Friday and looks to be very questionable. If Mooney doesn't go, that should free up some targets for the other receivers. It won't feel comfortable doing it, but if there was a week to use Pitts, this could be it. The former first-round draft pick should be viewed as a high-end TE2 this week.

From RotoBaller

Carson Wentz Jan 4 11:30am ET
Carson Wentz

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Carson Wentz will face the Denver Broncos on the road in Week 18. Patrick Mahomes practiced in a limited fashion all week before being listed as doubtful for this week's contest. Since the Chiefs already clinched the top seed in the AFC, Mahomes and the other starters will likely be rested in the season finale. Wentz will face the Broncos, who rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. The 32-year-old is ranked QB15 in our RotoBaller rankings, making him a viable option in 2QB leagues this week. Fantasy managers in standard redraft leagues should leave Wentz on the waiver wire.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Mahomes Jan 4 11:20am ET
Patrick Mahomes

The Denver Broncos defense/special teams is the No. 1 unit in fantasy through 17 weeks of the season and should be viewed as a top-five play in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday as they host a Chiefs team that will be resting most of their notable offensive players for the playoffs, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, running backs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, and tight end Travis Kelce. While the Broncos' defense has been a little more vulnerable lately -- they've allowed 30-plus points in three of their last four games -- they lead the NFL in sacks (58) and are still allowing under 20 points per game on the year. In a must-win game to get into the playoffs themselves, Denver's D will come to play against backups and will have a high ceiling for fantasy managers still playing for a championship. They also rank sixth in takeaways on the year with 25.

From RotoBaller

Wil Lutz Jan 4 11:10am ET
Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz hasn't missed a kick since the Week 10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He'll take on the Chiefs again in the Week 18 regular-season finale as the Broncos look to punch their ticket to the postseason for the first time since the 2015 season. Since Lutz's potential game-winning kick was blocked against KC on Nov. 10, he has made all 12 of his field-goal attempts and all 22 of his extra-point opportunities for an ascending Broncos offense. Not only has the 30-year-old veteran been money for Denver by making 90.9% of his field-goal tries this year, but he's been afforded field-goal tries (tied for eighth in the league) and 41 extra-point attempts (sixth), which has led him to being the No. 7 fantasy kicker on the year in overall points. Against a Chiefs defense resting players for the playoffs, Lutz is an easy top-10 fantasy kicker for the final game of the regular season in the altitude in Denver.

From RotoBaller

Alec Pierce Jan 4 11:10am ET
Alec Pierce

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce is coming off a big game that saw him post season-highs in targets and catches, putting up a 6-122-1 line against the Giants. It surely helped that the Colts were playing from behind all game, but the speedy wideout surprisingly leads the Colts in receiving yards (767) despite having only 35 catches on the season, compared to Josh Downs with 62 and Michael Pittman Jr. with 63. That's because of his league-leading aDOT of 21.5 yards per target. While he likely won't see a ton of targets again this week, the 24-year-old should get his usual three to four targets of the deep variety, which should translate to at least a couple long gains. With Pierce, however, he can be "boom" like we saw last week, or he can be more "bust" as he's logged six games with one catch or fewer this season. The matchup versus the Jaguars is a good one, and he posted 134 yards with a TD on them earlier this season, but did so on just three catches. The third-year receiver projects as a volatile WR5 in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Jan 4 11:10am ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is a must-start once again against the Indianapolis Colts. The rookie receiver has been special of late. He has received double-digit targets in each of the last five games, finishing the season strong and looking like a future bonafide alpha receiver. If not for a bit of a slow start and a better offensive situation around him, BTJ could have more seriously challenged for offensive rookie of the year. Mac Jones will be his quarterback for one final game, which has surprisingly been fruitful for his overall production. After backup Drew Lock and rookie receiver Malik Nabers dominated the Colts in Week 17, backup quarterback Jones and rookie BTJ could easily reach similar heights. Start BTJ with zero hesitation in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Noah Gray Jan 4 11:10am ET
Noah Gray

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Noah Gray will face the Denver Broncos on the road in Week 18. Gray has run behind Travis Kelce all season but still produced fantasy-relevant weeks. With Kelce listed as doubtful for this week's contest, Gray should be prepared to handle the full workload this week. The 25-year-old will take on the Broncos, who rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season. Gray had a five-game stretch from Weeks 11 to 15 where he found the endzone five times, more than Kelce scored all season. Gray's ceiling will be capped with Patrick Mahomes set to miss this week's contest. Carson Wentz will be at the helm of the Chiefs offense, making Gray a lower-tier option. Gray is ranked TE15 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, making him a viable TE2 option this week. Fantasy managers can start Gray and hope he finds pay dirt.

From RotoBaller

Mac Jones Jan 4 11:00am ET
Mac Jones

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones should be boosted slightly against the Indianapolis Colts this week given the number of quarterbacks expected to be out due to injury or rest. Given that the game is meaningless for both teams besides draft position, both teams will be playing for pride. That especially applies to a quarterback like Jones, who is on a bust trajectory after failing to meet his first-round expectations with the New England Patriots. This game could be a prove-it game for him to remain entrenched in a backup role or even find a starting role for a team in desperate need of a QB. The Colts allowed Drew Lock to have an otherworldly performance for the New York Giants last week, so it is possible that Jones also has a fantastic game. Jones is at least worth consideration in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Samaje Perine Jan 4 11:00am ET
Samaje Perine

Kansas City Chiefs running back Samaje Perine will face the Denver Broncos on the road in Week 18. With Isiah Pacheco marked as out and Kareem Hunt listed as doubtful for this week's contest, Perine should handle the majority of touches out of the backfield. The 29-year-old receiving back will face the Broncos, who rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season. Despite shouldering the load, Perine's ceiling will be lower with Carson Wentz under center this week. Perine is ranked RB44 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, making him a desperation flex option this week. There is a possibility that Perine is fantasy-relevant through sheer volume on the ground and through the air, but scoring opportunities could be at a premium in this contest. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere.

From RotoBaller

Javonte Williams Jan 4 10:50am ET
Javonte Williams

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams just isn't being involved enough to be an exciting fantasy option heading into the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday in Denver against the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs. In a Broncos backfield that has become a committee approach that also involves Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime, Williams will almost certainly need to find the end zone against a Chiefs defense resting key starters for the playoffs in order to reward fantasy managers as a flex play. Williams didn't see a single rushing attempt for the first time all year in last week's overtime loss to the Bengals and caught only two passes. He hasn't had double-digit carries since way back in Week 9 and has averaged a mere 3.6 yards per carry and 30.3 rushing yards per game in 16 contests this year. In a committee backfield with limited opportunities, there's little upside from Williams.

From RotoBaller

Josh Downs Jan 4 10:50am ET
Josh Downs

After averaging over five catches per contest after Week 11, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs has had four consecutive weeks with exactly three receptions. Be that as it may, Week 18 brings a matchup versus the Jaguars, the same team the 23-year-old posted nine catches on 12 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown back in Week 5. That game featured Joe Flacco under center too, so Downs will look to replicate that success and end the season on a high note. Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but the second-most to running backs, so the Colts may lean toward the ground game in this one instead. As a result, view Downs as a low-end WR3 with perhaps some upside in PPR formats if he and Flacco can get rolling again against the Jags.

From RotoBaller