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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Anthony Richardson Jan 2 1:00pm ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (back) didn't have his helmet on and wasn't seen stretching with the other QBs on Thursday, so it's looking like he's in line to miss a second straight practice as the team prepares for the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars. Richardson missed the Week 17 loss to the New York Giants, which eliminated the Colts from the postseason, due to pretty serious back spasms. He has been feeling much better this week, though, and the Colts are hopeful he can play in the final game of the year. However, with two DNPs to open the week, Richardson is far from a lock to be available on Sunday for fantasy managers in an excellent matchup. With many starting QBs resting this weekend, Richardson would have QB1 upside if he's active, but he'd also be a big risk due to a back injury that he's had issues with since high school.

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Justice Hill Jan 2 12:50pm ET
Justice Hill

Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill (concussion, illness) missed the team's final practice of the week on Thursday, meaning it's likely he'll be inactive for the Week 18 regular-season finale on Saturday against the division-rival Cleveland Browns, which would lead to a bigger role for Keaton Mitchell. Hill did not suit up for the Week 17 blowout win over the Houston Texans on Christmas Day last Wednesday. Head coach John Harbaugh said earlier this week that the team was expecting the 27-year-old pass-catching RB to return to action for the final regular season game, but after three missed practices, Baltimore will most likely list Hill as out on the final injury report on Thursday. Mitchell would see change-of-pace work behind starter Derrick Henry if Hill is out again on Saturday but would be a stretch as a starting lineup option in fantasy.

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Jayden Daniels Jan 2 12:50pm ET
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Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said that he would like another shot at a head-coaching gig "at some point" when asked about it during a press conference. The Commanders' season isn't over heading into the Week 18 regular-season finale this Sunday against the division-rival Dallas Cowboys after they clinched a playoff berth with a victory in overtime over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17. However, with several head-coaching positions expected to become available on Black Monday, Kingsbury's name is already floating around as a candidate after the impressive work he's done with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in 2024. The Chicago Bears make the most sense because of the fact that Kingsbury worked with quarterback Caleb Williams in 2023 at USC. The Bears will surely be looking for an offensive mind who can get Williams right, but it's unclear if Kingsbury will be their guy.

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Kirk Cousins Jan 2 12:40pm ET
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ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Daniel Oyefusi write that the Cleveland Browns are expected to look at "any veteran quarterback with starter's talent" this offseason, including Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, according to a team source. Cutting Deshaun Watson (Achilles) now would cost the team $92 million in cash and $119 million in dead salary cap money if he was designated as a post-June 1 release. A recent restructure of his contract allows the Browns to push Watson's dead cap figure into 2030 and signals he'll likely be on the roster next year. With Watson having been available in just 19 regular-season games since 2021, it's clear Cleveland's goal will be to strengthen their QB room this offseason. The working leaguewide theory is that the Browns will keep Watson for one more year and have him battle it out for the starting job with a veteran and/or draft pick.

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Chase Brown Jan 2 12:40pm ET
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Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown (ankle) will be a game-time decision for Saturday's Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Head coach Zac Taylor said, "We'll see," when asked about Brown's status this weekend. Brown will almost certainly be listed as questionable on Thursday's final injury report after he did not practice all week following a mild high-ankle sprain in the Week 17 victory over the Denver Broncos last Saturday. The 24-year-old has been a top-12 fantasy RB this year, but anyone still playing for something in redraft leagues might have to look elsewhere at the position this week. If active, Brown could cede more work to backup Khalil Herbert and could be less productive in a tough matchup on the road against one of the better defenses in the NFL. Herbert will have RB2 upside on volume alone if Brown is ruled out.

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Tyler Lockett Jan 2 12:20pm ET
Tyler Lockett

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett could be playing in his final game with Seattle in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Los Angeles Rams, but he plans to continue his career in 2025. The 32-year-old former third-round pick in 2015 out of Kansas State has seen his role shrink to WR3 for the Seahawks in 2024 due to the emergence of second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After reaching the 1,000-yard milestone four straight years from 2019-2022, Lockett had 894 receiving yards last year and currently is sitting on 572 yards and only two touchdowns on 47 receptions in 16 games this year. Lockett is the franchise's second-leading receiver in catches, yards and touchdowns, but he has accepted his role as more of a facilitator for both JSN and DK Metcalf. With a salary cap hit of $30.8 million in 2025, it's unlikely Lockett will stick around in Seattle.

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Drake Maye Jan 2 12:10pm ET
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New England Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt announced on Thursday that rookie quarterback Drake Maye (hand) will start on Sunday in the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Buffalo Bills. Van Pelt also said the intent is for Maye to play the entire game. The 22-year-old first-rounder was limited by a hand injury in practice on Wednesday, but he'll be good to go this weekend. The Patriots would secure the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NFL draft if they lose to a Bills team that is expected to play mostly backups, but New England wants to get Maye out there for one more game in what has mostly been a learning experience in his first year in the NFL. The third overall pick has completed 66.8% of his pass attempts for 2,276 yards, 15 TDs and 10 interceptions in 12 games (11 starts). He'll be a QB2 with upside in Year 2, but the Pats need to add more playmakers around him.

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Chase Brown Jan 2 12:10pm ET
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Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown (ankle) is not practicing with the rest of the team on Thursday, but he was seen working out with trainers on the side. Brown suffered a mild high-ankle sprain in last Saturday's overtime win over the Denver Broncos and hasn't been able to practice with the rest of the team all week. It remains to be seen how he'll be listed on the team's final Week 18 injury report on Thursday, but at the very least, Brown will likely be questionable to play on Saturday in a must-win divisional clash in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Coming into Week 18 action, the 24-year-old has been a must-start fantasy RB as Cincy's backfield workhorse -- he's the RB11 in half-PPR scoring -- but he could be limited or out this weekend. If Brown cannot go against Pittsburgh, Khalil Herbert would be the Bengals' RB1 in a tough matchup.

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Aaron Rodgers Jan 2 10:33am ET
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers acknowledged he could be playing his last game for the Jets in Week 18 and said he would decide before free agency begins in March if he'll play in 2025. 'I'm just more resigned to the reality of the situation,' Rodgers said. 'I think there's going to be change here, and if I'm a part of the change, then I just want to make sure everybody knows I have nothing but gratitude for my time here.'

Fantasy Spin: Rodgers' mobility has really hindered him this year, and while he showed signs of fantasy merit, he really is an afterthought except in two-QB leagues.

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Dyami Brown Jan 2 10:20am ET
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Washington Commanders wide receiver Dyami Brown (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday ahead of the regular-season finale against Dallas. The fourth-year receiver doesn't have a top-25 finish in PPR formats this year, but has an enticing matchup against a bad Dallas pass defense. Washington has committed to playing its starters, but certainly will be thinking about next week with a berth in the NFC playoffs already clinched. Brown's practice status will be worth watching as the Commanders progress through the week.

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Tyler Conklin Jan 2 10:20am ET
Tyler Conklin

New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin (calf) did not practice with the rest of the team on Wednesday. Conklin apparently picked up a calf injury in the Week 17 loss to the division-rival Buffalo Bills in which he had one of his best showings of the season. The 29-year-old caught all eight of his targets for 57 yards and a touchdown, but now his availability will be in question heading into the regular-season finale in Week 18 versus the division-rival Miami Dolphins. If Conklin is unable to get back on the practice field this week, the Jets would have more playing time available for tight ends Jeremy Ruckert and Kenny Yeboah, although neither player would excite fantasy managers setting DFS lineups. In his third year with the Jets in 2024, Conklin has barely moved the fantasy needle, catching 49 passes for 433 yards and three touchdowns on 69 targets in 15 games.

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Sauce Gardner Jan 2 10:20am ET
Sauce Gardner

New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (hamstring) was not able to practice with the rest of the team on Wednesday as they prepare for the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Gardner injured his hamstring in the Week 16 loss to the Los Angeles Rams but played in the blowout loss to the division-rival Buffalo Bills last weekend, although he aggravated his hamstring in the third quarter and never returned. The Jets have nothing left to play for but pride in the final game of the regular season, so there's a good chance the Jets will hold the 24-year-old out this weekend. If Gardner doesn't get the green light to play in Week 18, Brandin Echols should fill in for him in the secondary. Gardner, the former fourth overall pick in 2022 out of Cincinnati, hasn't been quite as good as he was in his first two NFL season and has 49 combined tackles and one pick in 15 starts.

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Terry McLaurin Jan 2 10:10am ET
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Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (ankle, rest) did not practice on Wednesday prior to the regular-season finale against the Dallas Cowboys. Washington rested a number of its major players and will be an interesting case in Week 18. The Commanders have clinched a berth in the playoffs, but are locked into a Wild Card road game with the NFC East having already gone to Philadelphia. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has said he intends to play starters, which would make McLaurin a WR1 option against a bad Dallas secondary if he plays. But it's worth watching throughout the week.

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Jan 2 9:50am ET
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest) logged a limited practiced on Wednesday ahead of the Week 18 game against Tampa Bay. The veteran receiver has been an extreme boom-or-bust option who surprised with a WR2 finish in Week 10 and caught touchdowns in three straight weeks earlier in the season, but bottomed out with no catches on two targets last week. With the Saints likely to play out the string without quarterback Derek Carr (left hand) and running back Alvin Kamara (groin), MVS is a low-end WR5 option on an offense that isn't worth trusting.

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Kendre Miller Jan 2 9:40am ET
Kendre Miller

New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday prior to the Week 18 finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Miller can't clear concussion protocol by Sunday, newly acquired back Clyde Edwards-Helaire seems likely to lead the backfield again, though he drew only five carries last week against Las Vegas. With the Saints way out of the playoff picture and quarterback Derek Carr (left hand) and running back Alvin Kamara (groin) still not practicing, the entire offense looks to be avoidable in any format that still plays Week 18.

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Juwan Johnson Jan 2 9:40am ET
Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (knee) practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday prior to the Week 18 finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The veteran tight end is coming off his best game of the year and led the team in receiving, but times are bleak for the Saints. Johnson has a nice matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against fantasy tight ends, but with Derek Carr (left hand), Alvin Kamara (groin), and Chris Olave (head) all dealing with injuries and the Saints having little incentive to go all out, Johnson should be viewed as a TE2 option if he plays.

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Nick Bosa Jan 2 9:30am ET
Nick Bosa

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (knee) did not practice on Wednesday ahead of Week 18's finale against the Arizona Cardinals. The Ohio State product has been an injury report regular this year, but the knee injury was a new designation after oblique and hip issues earlier in the season. With San Francisco already eliminated from playoff contention, there won't be much reason to push the envelope with the star defensive end, so missing the game certainly seems in play for Bosa. For IDP formats still going in Week 18, managers should have a backup plan at the ready.

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Ricky Pearsall Jan 2 9:20am ET
Ricky Pearsall

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (illness, chest) was limited in Wednesday's practice, according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN. The 49ers will conclude the season at Arizona in Week 18 in a meeting of two teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. The rookie receiver is coming off his career-best game on Monday against Detroit, going for eight catches, 141 yards, and a touchdown, but the 49ers may be without quarterback Brock Purdy (elbow) and a host of other players, too. Against a solid Cards pass defense, Pearsall is a major risk in DFS or fantasy formats that play Week 18.

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Drake Maye Jan 2 1:00am ET
Drake Maye

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (right hand) was limited during Wednesday's practice. The rookie reportedly injured one of his fingers during last Saturday's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Maye is expected to recover in time for Week 18 against the Buffalo Bills, and he's in line to start after head coach Jerod Mayo indicated all of New England's healthy starters would play. Nevertheless, it's an interesting story to monitor given that the Patriots would clinch the No. 1 draft pick with a loss on Sunday but could drop as low as No. 5 if they win. There has been ongoing speculation that the Patriots could rest Maye to preserve his health and secure the top pick, but as of now, it sounds like Mayo is going to roll out his starters in hopes of a Week 18 victory.

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Anthony Richardson Jan 2 12:50am ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (back) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday's practice estimation. The second-year quarterback noted that his back injury limited him physically last week, and there were times when he couldn't even walk or stand up. He feels better now, though, and said that he'll do everything in his power to play on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Head coach Shane Steichen echoed this sentiment, saying, "We're hopeful [that Richardson plays]. He's working through his rehab and his treatment right now, so we'll see how the week progresses with that." Richardson should rank as a low-end QB1 facing off against a subpar Jaguars defense.

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