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FFL: Week 6 | NFL: Week 6

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Luke Musgrave Oct 12 9:50am ET
Luke Musgrave

Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (ankle) was placed on the injured reserve according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. As a result, Musgrave will be sidelined for at least the next four games due to an ankle injury. The 24-year-old has had a slow start to the campaign catching only five passes across the first four weeks with just 22 yards. Fantasy managers should expect 23-year-old Tucker Kraft to see the majority of opportunities at the position going forward. Kraft has enjoyed a nice breakout campaign and has caught ten passes for 141 yards and three scores over the past two weeks. Kraft remains a TE1 going forward and has a favorable matchup this weekend against a week Arizona secondary.

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Trey Palmer Oct 12 9:40am ET
Trey Palmer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Trey Palmer (concussion) will miss his second straight game this weekend due to a concussion. The sophomore wideout was unable to participate in any team practices this week and will now set his sights on returning in Week 7. After catching only one pass through the first three weeks of the season, Palmer enjoyed a nice bounce-back performance in Week 4 when he caught three passes for 26 yards and a score. Fantasy managers should expect rookie wideout Jalen McMillan (hamstring) to serve as the No.3 option this weekend if he is able to suit up. If not, veteran Sterling Shepard will take that role and could be worth a look as a high-risk option in DFS as he found the end zone last week.

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Braelon Allen Oct 12 9:40am ET
Braelon Allen

New York Jets running back Braelon Allen has been quiet over the past two games, rushing for 47 scoreless yards while catching just two passes. It isn't just Allen as Breece Hall has also struggled to find room to run over that same span. The Jets and Allen will look to change that in Week 6's Monday night game against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo can be beaten on the ground as they are allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. That is in stark contrast to their lockdown pass defense, which is allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The Jets could lean heavily on their running backs in Week 6, giving Allen a good shot at seeing double-digit touches for the first time since Week 3. That places him on the map as a solid flex option heading into Monday night.

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Curtis Samuel Oct 12 9:30am ET
Curtis Samuel

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (toe) remained a limited participant in Friday's practice. Samuel was limited during Thursday's initial session with a toe injury. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status during Saturday's practice as it should provide clarity on his availability for Monday's game. However, seeing him participate in a limited capacity earlier in the week is a promising sign that he might be able to suit up. No.1 wide receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) and No.1 running back James Cook (toe) have not participated in a practice session this week which could open the door for Samuel to see more opportunities. If Samuel sees an increase in playing time due to the other injuries, he could be worth a look as a flex option in deeper formats on Monday evening.

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Garrett Wilson Oct 12 9:30am ET
Garrett Wilson

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson turned in his best game of the season against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5, catching 13 of his 23 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. He will look for another big performance in Week 6's Monday night game against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo's secondary should provide more resistance for Wilson than Minnesota's as they have been tough against wide receivers, allowing the 26th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tough matchup aside, Wilson reinforced last week that he is still the top target in New York despite Aaron Rodgers' strong rapport with Allen Lazard. Fantasy gamers should temper expectations for the entire Jets passing game in Week 6 but Wilson can still be started as a mid-range WR2.

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Chauncey Golston Oct 12 9:20am ET
Chauncey Golston

Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons (ankle) will not suit up this weekend when the Cowboys face the Detroit Lions. Parsons suffered a high-ankle sprain in their Week 4 victory over the New York Giants and will now miss his second consecutive game. Fantasy managers in IDP leagues should continue to monitor his status as the star edge rusher could be eligible to return in Week 8 as the Cowboys are off on a bye in Week 7. This weekend, DeMarvion Overshown and Erik Kendricks should see most of the linebacker snaps while Chauncey Golston and Tyrus Wheat will be deployed on the line. With both DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and Parsons not playing, the Detroit offense should have much easier time moving down the field.

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Breece Hall Oct 12 9:20am ET
Breece Hall

New York Jets running back Breece Hall has struggled greatly over the past two weeks, rushing for just 27 yards on 19 carries over that span. He will look to turn things around against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6's Monday night game. The Bills have been average against running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to the position through five games. Buffalo is also very tough against the pass, which could lead to a more run-heavy game plan for the Jets heading into Monday night. Hall hasn't been great for fantasy of late but he's still an explosive player who does plenty of damage in the passing game. That keeps him in the conversation as a low-end RB1 in fantasy in Week 6.

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Matt Prater Oct 12 9:10am ET
Matt Prater

Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers. Prater was kept sidelined during last weekend's game with a knee injury. However, he was able to log three consecutive limited practice sessions this week which is a promising sign for his status as he was only able to log one heading into Week 5. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status ahead of kickoff. If Prater is able to suit he should be started in all formats given his offensive situation. If Prater is unable to play, Chad Ryland will likely be activated from the practice squad and is a worth a look as a deep league streamer.

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Jaylen Warren Oct 12 9:00am ET
Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (knee) has been upgraded from his questionable status and no longer carries an injury designation for Sunday's game. Warren was dealing with a knee injury and had to miss the past two games. Warren was able to log three consecutive limited sessions during this week's practice and will now make his return on Sunday afternoon. The 25-year-old is coming off a career year where he ran for 784 yards and added 370 yards through the air with four total scores. Even though the 25-year-old has battled injuries this season, he remains a high-upside flex option in PPR formats given his skills as a pass catcher.

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Audric Estime Oct 12 8:20am ET
Audric Estime

Denver Broncos rookie running back Audric Estime (ankle) practiced in full all week but is questionable to play in Week 6 against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Estime must be activated from Injured Reserve on Saturday if he is going to be active for just his second NFL game this weekend. The 21-year-old made his NFL debut in the Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks and had two carries for 14 yards before hurting his ankle and being placed on IR. If the fifth-rounder out of Notre Dame does return, he'll merely be the third wheel in a lackluster offense behind Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, so he won't be on the fantasy radar at all. However, it doesn't mean that Estime can't eventually be a factor in this backfield in 2024, perhaps in a goal-line role as a power back up the middle. It's not as if Williams and McLaughlin have looked great through five weeks. For now, Estime is mainly a stash candidate in dynasty/keeper fantasy leagues.

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Wil Lutz Oct 12 8:00am ET
Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers that have used him as a streamer at the position -- he's currently tied with Chris Boswell for the sixth-most fantasy points at kicker through five weeks -- but he won't be a recommended streamer in Week 6 versus the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday's game figures to be a low-scoring, ground-and-pound battle on both sides, with the Chargers defense allowing a league-low 12.5 points per game and Denver's D right behind at 14.6 points allowed per game. The Bolts also allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the kicking position. Combine that with a Denver offense that is scoring fewer than 20 points per game through five contests, and it doesn't seem likely that Lutz will have many kicking opportunities to capitalize on. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere in Week 6.

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Troy Franklin Oct 12 7:50am ET
Troy Franklin

With Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (finger) sidelined in Week 6 against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, rookie wideout Troy Franklin should see additional opportunities in the passing attack, albeit in a less-than-favorable matchup. The fourth-rounder from Oregon hasn't played more than 31% of the offensive snaps in any of the first four NFL games he's played in, but that could change this Sunday. He also has only five catches on 12 targets for 29 yards and dropped what would have been his first career touchdown in the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Even though Franklin could serve as the team's WR3 against the Chargers, he won't be a realistic starting option in fantasy in what has been a low-volume, inefficient offense. The Chargers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game to pass-catchers through five weeks as well.

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Cole Kmet Oct 12 7:40am ET
Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a borderline starter this week, benefiting from a favorable matchup against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Last week, Kmet had a decent outing for a tight end, recording three catches for 57 yards. While his snap rate has increased, his production has declined since his Week 3 breakout. With only seven targets over his last two games, it's tough to feel confident about Kmet's upside. However, given the ongoing challenges at the tight end position in 2024, he can still be a viable spot starter in this favorable matchup.

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Trevor Lawrence Oct 12 7:40am ET
Trevor Lawrence

The Chicago Bears defense and special teams want to continue their strong early-season performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Bears come into the game with a defense on track to finish in the top five in scoring for the first time since 2019. They'll face former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, who has struggled in 2024 compared to his usual standards. In Week 5, Lawrence completed 82.4% of his passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, but his overall season has been lackluster. Start the Bears' defense with confidence this week, as they will likely create turnovers against Lawrence and the underperforming Jaguars offense.

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Cairo Santos Oct 12 7:40am ET
Cairo Santos

Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a reliable fantasy option for Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had a mixed performance in his Week 5 matchup against the Carolina Panthers, successfully converting his only field goal attempt from 30 yards but missing one of four extra-point attempts. Santos will likely see plenty of action again this week in London, as the Bears are expected to move the ball effectively against a struggling Jaguars defense.

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Lil'Jordan Humphrey Oct 12 7:40am ET
Lil'Jordan Humphrey

Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (finger) has been ruled out for Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers, which will lead to more involvement for receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey. In the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, he played the second-most snaps of Denver's receivers and caught both of his targets for 48 yards. Despite the opportunity, we aren't recommending Humphrey to fantasy managers against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year. The 26-year-old does have impressive yards-after-the-catch abilities with the ball in his hands, but he's just not very exciting in what has been a low-scoring offense led by a rookie quarterback, especially in a tough matchup. Humphrey has 12 catches for 135 yards and no scores through five games in 2024 and should be left on the waiver wire in standard-sized, 12-team leagues.

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Roschon Johnson Oct 12 7:30am ET
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is poised to capitalize on his increased workload from last week as he faces the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6. Last week, he enjoyed his best fantasy performance of the season, rushing ten times for 25 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Since Week 4, Johnson has found the end zone three times, having taken over the goal-line rushing duties for the Bears. If the Bears can establish a lead, Johnson could see additional goal-line opportunities against a struggling Jaguars defense, similar to his performance against the Panthers. Johnson is a worthwhile dart throw for those in need, given his secure role in the Bears' offense.

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D.J. Moore Oct 12 7:30am ET
D.J. Moore

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid WR2 choice this week against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Coming off his best game of the season in Week 5, where he recorded five catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns, Moore looks poised for another strong performance. The Jaguars surrendered 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts' receivers in Week 5, and they have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wideouts this season. Given his recent breakout, Moore is a must-start in this favorable matchup. Add him to your lineup and hope for another standout showing.

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Keenan Allen Oct 12 7:30am ET
Keenan Allen

Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is looking to rebound this Sunday in Chicago against a notably weak Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. After a quiet performance last week, where he recorded just three receptions for 33 yards, Allen is hoping for a more impactful outing in Week 6. The Jaguars recently allowed 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Colts' wide receivers, and they have given up the second-most receiving yards to opponents this season. Allen has been anticipating his breakout game with the Bears, and this matchup presents a great opportunity. While it's reasonable to start Allen if needed, it would be preferable to see him deliver a standout performance before fully committing him to your lineup.

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Courtland Sutton Oct 12 7:30am ET
Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton will have a low fantasy ceiling and floor for a Week 6 matchup against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6. After going for three catches, 60 yards and his first touchdown of the year in the Week 4 win over the New York Jets, Sutton had a quiet two catches for 32 yards in last week's win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. He's currently the WR53 in half-PPR scoring and has gone into double-digit fantasy points (half PPR) just twice in five contests. On top of it, the Chargers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game (19.0) to the receiver position through five weeks (four games). The only thing good Sutton has going for him is his 26.3% target share; he currently ranks tied for 12th among wideouts with 41 total targets. But he's caught only 17 of those targets for 224 yards and a touchdown and should be considered a touchdown-dependent WR4/flex in lineups this Sunday against what has been a lockdown defense so far.

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