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FFL: Playoff Week 2 | NFL: Week 16

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 16

Player Notes
Tank Dell Dec 23 2:10pm ET
Tank Dell

Per Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston, Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (knee) suffered a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL in Saturday's 27-19 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Oof. The second-year wideout was off to a ripping hot start in Week 16 with six receptions, 98 yards, and a touchdown before he got folded up on -- again sustaining a gruesome leg injury. Dell will now begin the long road to recovery. It's unfortunate news for the 25-year-old and the Houston Texans offense. With fellow wideout John Metchie III (shoulder) dealing with his own injury, Houston will deploy WRs Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jared Wayne at an elevated clip if Metchie can't suit up again in Week 17. Tight end Dalton Schultz should also pick up some more work with the offense down another pass-catcher.

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Luke Musgrave Dec 23 1:10pm ET
Luke Musgrave

The Green Bay Packers are activating tight end Luke Musgrave (ankle) from Injured Reserve on Monday, and he will play against the New Orleans Saints, according to a source. Musgrave underwent surgery on his ankle in October and hasn't played since Week 3, so the Packers will ease him back in. The 24-year-old caught 34 of his 46 targets for 352 yards and one touchdown in his first 11 NFL games (nine starts) in Green Bay last year. In four games before injuring his ankle this year, Musgrave was barely involved behind Tucker Kraft, catching five of seven targets for 22 yards. He probably won't be all the field that much on Monday night in his first game back after a long layoff, and Musgrave will be a low-upside deep sleeper in DFS formats for the final three games of the regular season and in the playoffs for the Packers.

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Cedric Tillman Dec 23 1:00pm ET
Cedric Tillman

Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said that wide receiver Cedric Tillman (concussion), who has missed the last four games due to a concussion, is still making his way through the league's concussion protocol. The second-year wideout suffered a concussion in the Week 12 win over the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers and hasn't played since. The 24-year-old had a productive three-game stretch from Weeks 7-9 in which he caught 21 of his 32 targets for 255 yards and three touchdowns with Jameis Winston at quarterback. He was becoming a weekly flex option for fantasy managers right before suffering a concussion. Now, with fantasy championship matchups in most leagues coming in Week 17, you can't trust Tillman in a lineup spot if he clears concussion protocol and is active against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. It's especially true with Dorian Thompson-Robinson now at QB.

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Dak Prescott Dec 23 12:40pm ET
Dak Prescott

After the Dallas Cowboys' win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 17, owner Jerry Jones praised head coach Mike McCarthy but also declined to comment on his future after this season when asked. The praise for McCarthy is notable since his contract expires at the end of this season, and the Cowboys' late-season surge without quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) could buy the head coach more time with the organization. Dallas has won four of its last five games. "All I can say is what a good job, how good a job he's doing," Jones said. "Don't have thoughts that I would share as to anything about what we do ... after we're through playing this year." Already eliminated from postseason contention, Dallas has two division games remaining -- at the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 and home versus the Washington Commanders in the Week 18 regular-season finale.

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Garrett Wilson Dec 23 12:40pm ET
Garrett Wilson

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson voiced his frustration after being targeted just three times in the first 55 minutes of the game by quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the Week 16 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. "I'd like to be involved, love to make an impact on the game, but people see it differently," Wilson said. "That's out of my control." Wilson praised passing-game coordinator Todd Downing for trying to get him the ball, so the pass-catcher could really be taking a shot at Rodgers. In the last five quarters, Wilson has only been targeted five times. In the same span, Rodgers' buddy, receiver Davante Adams, has been targeted 17 times. Even Allen Lazard (seven) saw more targets than Wilson. He finished with six catches for 54 yards on Sunday thanks to a late comeback attempt, but it wasn't enough to make Wilson happy. He's on the verge of his third 1,000-yard season, but there has been speculation that he could ask for a trade sooner than later.

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Drew Lock Dec 23 12:20pm ET
Drew Lock

New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock (shoulder) is getting an MRI exam on his shoulder on Monday, according to head coach Brian Daboll. It means the Giants' QB situation is once again up in the air heading into their Week 17 contest against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, Dec. 29. Even if Lock's shoulder ends up being OK, the Giants could make the move back to Tommy DeVito under center for the penultimate game of another lost season for the G-Men after Lock threw two more pick-sixes in a Week 16 blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The 28-year-old went 22-for-39 for 210 yards, one touchdown and the two interceptions while also fumbling. Lock just hasn't been good in limited duty for New York since the team parted ways with Daniel Jones, as he's completed just 52.7% of his passes for 624 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions in six games (three starts).

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Tyrone Tracy Jr. Dec 23 12:20pm ET
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll said on Monday that rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (ankle) aggravated a previous ankle injury he was dealing with in the Week 16 blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Tracy was questionable to play in Week 16 against Atlanta but suited up anyway and didn't do much on the ground, gaining only 26 rushing yards on seven carries. However, the 25-year-old rookie salvaged his day for fantasy managers by catching all four of his targets for 43 yards and the team's only touchdown of the game. It's unclear if Tracy's aggravation will keep him from playing in the Week 17 contest against the Indianapolis Colts in what is a great matchup, but fantasy managers will want to monitor his status closely this week. Backup Devin Singletary would at least be an intriguing RB3/flex option in fantasy if Tracy is ruled out.

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Jalen Coker Dec 23 12:10pm ET
Jalen Coker

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jalen Coker was a non-factor in the Week 16 victory against the Arizona Cardinals, registering two catches for eight yards. He was targeted five times, which tied for second on the team, but he finished sixth on the team in receiving. Carolina tied a season-best with 36 points and resurgent quarterback Bryce Young played his best game of the year, yet Coker wasn't really part of the action. For managers who advance to their fantasy Super Bowls, the rookie is a massive gamble with a great matchup in Week 17 against Tampa Bay.

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Josh Allen Dec 23 12:10pm ET
Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (elbow) said after the Week 16 win over the division-rival New England Patriots on Sunday that his arm is fine after he suffered a right-elbow contusion in the second half. Allen said his elbow got hit, which caused him to lose feeling in his throwing arm. The loss of feeling in his arm contributed to a wobbly pass after he took the hit, and he was seen shaking his hand trying to get feeling back. "Just hit the funny bone nerve and went to throw the ball and just had no feeling in the hand," Allen said. He worked with trainers on the sideline to get heat applied to his arm and went back into the game for the next series. The 28-year-old is the front-runner for the MVP award in 2024 despite throwing for 154 yards, one touchdown and a pick in the win over the Pats. Look for Allen to bounce back as a high-end QB1 in Week 17 against the division-rival New York Jets at Orchard Park.

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Raheem Mostert Dec 23 12:00pm ET
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert carried the ball eight times for 31 yards and caught both of his targets for 15 yards in their 29-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. The 32-year-old has started seeing more carries in the last several games, but fellow backfield mate De'Von Achane will continue to see most of the work. Ever since he fumbled against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9, Mostert seems to be in the doghouse with head coach Mike McDaniel. He has not seen 10 carries in a game since then. His next opportunity will come next Sunday at the Cleveland Browns in a game where the offense might need to lean on the running game in the cold weather.

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Rome Odunze Dec 23 12:00pm ET
Rome Odunze

Wide receiver Rome Odunze of the Chicago Bears ended with a respectable 77 receiving yards on four catches in a 34-17 loss to Detroit on Sunday. The rookie was targeted seven times, which was third on the team, and was second only to receiver Keenan Allen in yards. Though this season has been a major dud for Chicago, Odunze has shown some late-season promise with a two-touchdown performance in Week 14 and his third-highest yardage total of the season on Sunday. The Bears will continue playing out the string with a Thursday matchup against Seattle in Week 17.

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Chad Ryland Dec 23 11:50am ET
Chad Ryland

Arizona Cardinals kicker Chad Ryland had an excellent game Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, converting all three field goal attempts and all three extra points in the 36-30 overtime defeat. The kicker was one of the few Cardinals who outperformed expectations, nailing field goals of 48, 30, and 58 yards, the last of the which sent the game to an extra period on the last play of regulation. The second-year man has done well with his chance in Arizona and could be a plausible streaming option with a plus matchup in Week 17 against the Los Angeles Rams.

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Trey McBride Dec 23 11:40am ET
Trey McBride

Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride had his least productive receiving day of the season during a 36-30 overtime loss to Carolina on Sunday, finishing with just three catches for 20 yards. The tight end phenom was targeted only four times, which was fewer than journeyman running back Michael Carter and No. 2 receiver Michael Wilson, and the same as running back James Conner. McBride has been great this season, but Sunday was a brutal time for a dud in the fantasy playoffs. The Cards were officially knocked out of the playoffs with the loss, so managers who survived will hope for McBride to rebound in Week 17 against the Los Angeles Rams.

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Malik Washington Dec 23 11:40am ET
Malik Washington

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Malik Washington caught three of four targets for 28 yards in the 29-17, Week 16 win over the San Francisco 49ers. With Jaylen Waddle (knee) sidelined for this game, the rookie could not take advantage of more snaps. The Miami passing attack struggled somewhat and leaned more on the ground game. Waddle could miss more than just this game, making his status something to be monitored throughout this week. Washington will look to bounce back next Sunday when he and Miami hit the road to take on the Cleveland Browns in a game that will possibly be in freezing temperatures.

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Michael Wilson Dec 23 11:40am ET
Michael Wilson

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson finished with two catches on five targets for 44 yards in a 36-30 overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. It was an all-around poor day for Arizona's passing game, as tight end Trey McBride had his worst receiving day of the year and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. failed to hit 50 receiving yards for the third straight game. The loss officially bounced Arizona from playoff contention, so the Cardinals are down to playing spoiler next week against the Los Angeles Rams. Wilson will be a highly risky bet for standard-format managers in fantasy Super Bowls.

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DeeJay Dallas Dec 23 11:30am ET
DeeJay Dallas

Arizona Cardinals running back DeeJay Dallas turned his only involvement of the game Sunday against Carolina into a one-yard touchdown catch. The 26-year-old had no carries and only one target, but made it count for his first touchdown of the season. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it wasn't enough in a 36-30 overtime loss that knocked them out of playoff contention. Starting running back James Conner (knee) departed the game, Trey Benson (ankle) was out, and Emari Demercado (back) is on injured reserve, leaving a possible opening in the Arizona backfield. Based on Sunday's game, however, it would appear as if journeyman Michael Carter would be the preferred streaming option over Dallas.

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Jason Sanders Dec 23 11:30am ET
Jason Sanders

Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders made 5-of-5 field goal attempts and 2-of-2 extra points in their 29-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. His longest came from 54 yards out. Sanders continued to stay hot and has now made his last 23 field goal attempts. As the Dolphins offense has looked more formidable, he continues to get more opportunities than almost anyone in the league, and his conversion rate has been phenomenal. The 29-year-old is now the sixth-ranked kicker overall in fantasy football and should be a weekly start for anyone still in the playoffs. He will have a challenging task traveling to take on the Cleveland Browns in likely freezing conditions in Week 17.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. Dec 23 11:30am ET
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. finished with a forgettable Week 16 against Carolina, catching four passes for 39 yards on eight targets. The rookie has had a rough stretch after the Cards' bye, finishing outside the top 40 at his position four times in the past five weeks, which has been disappointing given his early-season draft hype. Sunday's 36-30 overtime loss knocked Arizona out of playoff contention, leaving the team to play out the string during the final two weeks. Harrison will be a risky play for managers in fantasy Super Bowls during a Week 17 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

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Adonai Mitchell Dec 23 11:10am ET
Adonai Mitchell

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell indeed worked as the deep threat in the absence of Alec Pierce (concussion), however, the 22-year-old was targeted just one time in this contest. The rookie wideout hauled in that one target for a big gain of 36 yards, but that was midway through the second quarter and the speedster did not receive another look for the rest of the game. Not that he was the only one who put up disappointing receiving numbers, as Josh Downs "led" the corps with three catches while Michael Pittman Jr. corralled just two. Jonathan Taylor ran all over the Titans, so there was no need for the Colts to ask Anthony Richardson to throw up a lot of passes, completing just 7-of-11 attempts on the day. Assuming Pierce can play next week, Mitchell will again work as the fourth option in a feeble passing attack and should not be trusted in fantasy championships.

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Tyreek Hill Dec 23 11:10am ET
Tyreek Hill

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught three of his seven targets for 29 yards and a touchdown in their 29-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. Hill could've had a much bigger game if not for a few dropped passes, one of which could've been another touchdown. With Jaylen Waddle (knee) out in this game, this wasn't exactly the level of production fantasy managers were hoping for. This is the fifth time this season that the 30-year-old had 30 yards or less, and the 11th time he has failed to reach 15 PPR fantasy points. At this point in the season, it's safe to say that Hill was one of the biggest busts of the 2024 season. His next opportunity comes next Sunday afternoon at the Cleveland Browns in Week 17.

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