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FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18

Player Notes
Keon Coleman Jan 4 1:10pm ET
Keon Coleman

Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman will be an extremely volatile option for fantasy managers on Sunday in the team's Week 18 regular-season finale versus the division-rival New England Patriots. The Bills are already locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC for the postseason, so their starters might only play one offensive series before calling it a day. That could include Coleman, who has been a big part of Buffalo's passing attack in his first year in the NFL when he's been healthy. Because of the possibility that the 21-year-old wideout barely sees the field this weekend, fantasy managers shouldn't be relying on him this weekend. In his first season in the NFL over 12 games played, Coleman has impressed with 27 catches on 47 targets for 525 yards and four touchdowns, although it's amounted to just 7.5 half-PPR points per game, which puts him as the WR60.

From RotoBaller

Ty Johnson Jan 4 1:10pm ET
Ty Johnson

Buffalo Bills running back Ty Johnson could have a much bigger role in the backfield on Sunday in the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival New England Patriots with the team expected to pull their starters early on. The Bills are locked into the No 2 seed in the AFC for the playoffs already, so they are expected to treat this game like a preseason contest. It means that the 27-year-old Johnson could have his biggest workload of the season. However, rookie Ray Davis should also have a bigger workload and could lead the Bills backfield. At the very least, though, Johnson is trending up as an RB3/flex sleeper in DFS contests against a New England defense that has surrendered the fourth-most half-PPR points per game to RBs this year. Despite being Buffalo's No. 3 back in 2024, Johnson has been efficient with 5.1 yards per carry on his 39 rushing attempts through 16 games.

From RotoBaller

Carson Steele Jan 4 1:00pm ET
Carson Steele

Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back Carson Steele is set for an expanded role on Sunday in the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Denver Broncos. The Chiefs will be resting many of their regulars this weekend after already locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the playoffs. Isiah Pacheco (rib) has already been ruled out, while Kareem Hunt is doubtful to play. It means that Steele, an undrafted free agent, could make the start in the final regular-season game. However, he's surely to share touches with Samaje Perine at the very least and will be facing a top-five defense as the Broncos look to punch their own playoff ticket with a win. The increased role will boost the 22-year-old's fantasy value in Week 18, although Steele has averaged only 3.3 yards per carry on his 48 rushing attempts in his first 16 NFL games. Despite increased opportunity, the upside remains limited for Steele in a bad matchup.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Huntley Jan 4 1:00pm ET
Tyler Huntley

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tyler Huntley will seemingly get the start for the second straight game in Week 18, with Tua Tagovailoa (hip) being listed as doubtful for Sunday's game. Huntley had an excellent game against the Cleveland Browns last week, completing 22 of 26 passes for 225 yards and one passing touchdown to go along with 52 rushing yards on seven attempts and a rushing touchdown. Miami will travel in Week 18 to take on the New York Jets in a game where it is projected to be around 35 degrees at kickoff. Despite Jaylen Waddle (knee) and Tyreek Hill (wrist) looking like they will play, one good game is not enough to trust Huntley for fantasy owners still fighting for a championship. He is best left on the bench unless there are limited options available.

From RotoBaller

Jamison Crowder Jan 4 12:50pm ET
Jamison Crowder

Despite the Washington Commanders offense excelling this year under impressive rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, veteran wide receiver Jamison Crowder hasn't made much noise, even with Noah Brown (kidney) recently suffering a season-ending injury. That probably won't change in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Dallas Cowboys and their beat up defense. The 31-year-old saw a season-high five targets in last week's overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons, but Crowder caught only three passes for 25 yards. The 31-year-old is averaging a career-low 8.0 yards per catch and has only nine receptions on 13 targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns in the five games he's played this year. The Cowboys defense has allowed the sixth-most half-PPR points per game to wideouts this season, but Crowder's minimal role on offense makes him avoidable in fantasy yet again in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Marquise Brown Jan 4 12:40pm ET
Marquise Brown

It will be hard to trust Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquise Brown in fantasy lineups in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday in Denver against the division-rival Denver Broncos, mainly because of the fact that quarterback Patrick Mahomes (ankle) is being rested for the playoffs. Additionally, Hollywood will be facing a top-five defense on the road in a hostile environment while working with backup QB Carson Wentz. Brown will be playing in just his third game of the year after recovering from a shoulder injury that he suffered in the preseason that required surgery. In his two games played, Hollywood has nine catches on 15 targets for 91 yards and no touchdowns. With the Chiefs having nothing to play for with the top seed in the AFC already locked up, Brown could also be at risk of not playing the entire game. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a flex play.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Coker Jan 4 12:40pm ET
Jalen Coker

Carolina Panthers rookie wide receiver Jalen Coker has mainly been a stash candidate in dynasty/keeper fantasy leagues in his first season in the NFL. He heads into the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Atlanta Falcons with only 25 catches for 416 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets over 10 games played. That has been good enough to make him the WR74 in average half-PPR points per game (6.6), so it's safe to say he wasn't rostered in most standard-sized fantasy leagues in 2024. However, the 23-year-old could make some noise as a WR4/flex sleeper in the final game of the regular season this weekend against a Falcons defense that has allowed the sixth-most half-PPR points per game to opposing wideouts this year. Although the undrafted rookie had only 35 yards in last weeks loss to the Bucs, he finished second on the team in receiving behind veteran Adam Thielen.

From RotoBaller

Cade York Jan 4 12:30pm ET
Cade York

Cincinnati Bengals kicker Cade York will be a borderline starting kicking option for fantasy managers with the Bengals trying to keep their faint playoff hopes alive with a win on Saturday against the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the Week 18 regular-season finale. The 23-year-old missed a 33-yarder in overtime last Saturday in the eventual victory over the Denver Broncos, his second straight week with a missed field goal. Since taking over for Evan McPherson (groin), York has made five of his seven field-goal opportunities while going 13-for-14 on extra points for the Bengals. McPherson is eligible to return from Injured Reserve this weekend, but it will be York kicking in his fifth straight game. He's certainly not the most reliable fantasy kicker, but given Cincy's high-scoring offense, he's at least in play as a streamer in what should be one of the most competitive games of the week.

From RotoBaller

Devon Achane Jan 4 12:30pm ET
Devon Achane

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane will be looking to bounce back as a strong RB1 for fantasy managers in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival New York Jets in a must-win game for Miami. Achane put up a dud for fantasy managers with a 10-carry, 25-yard performance in the win over the Cleveland Browns last week, adding two catches for 13 yards. While that was a frustrating performance for those in championship matchups, the 23-year-old has been a top-10 fantasy RB this year and needs to remain locked into starting lineups this weekend, even with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (hip) looking likely to miss a second straight game. Achane has seen double-digit carries in all but two games this year and should see as much work as he can handle against the Jets in a game Miami must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

From RotoBaller

Brenton Strange Jan 4 12:10pm ET
Brenton Strange

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange has been an inconsistent fantasy asset this season, and should continue that way in Week 18. He could be in line for more involvement in the passing game this week given the game doesn't matter and the Colts pass defense was gashed last week by Drew Lock and the Giants offense. That likely means more touchdowns and more success through the air than normal for Mac Jones, who may be fighting for a starting job with another team next season. With that being said, Strange has had some stinkers as of late, and hasn't done much besides an 11 catch, 73 yard performance against the New York Jets. Unless he can find the endzone, Strange is an extreme boom-or-bust tight end in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Cam Little Jan 4 12:10pm ET
Cam Little

Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little should have at least a decent outing in the final week of the season against the Indianapolis Colts. The rookie kicker has had a solid season overall and will look to finish his first season strong. Along with many other players on the team, this game is more about auditioning for next season for Little. After a big offensive outburst for the New York Giants last week against the Colts, the Jaguars offense could be in for a similar outing in what is a similarly built offense currently. That could mean plenty of kicking opportunities for Little, who has proven he has the leg and accuracy to be a solid kicker long-term and in fantasy. Little has surprising upside compared to previous weeks in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Tank Bigsby Jan 4 12:00pm ET
Tank Bigsby

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby has decent upside against the Indianapolis Colts in the final week of the season. The New York Giants offense was great last week against the Colts, so the Jaguars could be in line for a good offensive game as well. Bigsby would likely be the recipient of a touchdown if that were the case. Also, given the game doesn't mean anything for either team besides draft position, the young back could be in line for extra work as an audition for next season. Bigsby came on strong this season with some big games, both with and without Travis Etienne Jr. in the lineup. The two will likely be battling it out for starter next season, and that competition could start this week. Given that extra motivation, Bigsby seems like a solid flex start with some upside in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Harrison Butker Jan 4 11:50am ET
Harrison Butker

Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker will face the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Butker knocked through his only field goal attempt in Week 17 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chiefs kicker also nailed two extra-point attempts in that contest. Butker will now face the Broncos in Denver. Given the strength of the Broncos defense and the lack of Patrick Mahomes in the offense, Butker could be asked to shoulder more of the scoring load. Butker is ranked as the 20th-best kicker this week, putting him outside of start-worthy range for most leagues. The Chiefs offense could be inept without several key starters, making Butker a risky play this week.

From RotoBaller

Travis Etienne Jan 4 11:50am ET
Travis Etienne

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. doesn't have much upside in a meaningless final game against the Indianapolis Colts. Etienne Jr. has been splitting touches out of the backfield with Tank Bigsby for most of the season, and Bigsby has looked like the better back for the most part. The 25-year-old back has had a disappointing season due to the lackluster offense and less-than-ideal volume. That shouldn't change this week and could even sway more towards Bigsby given he is the younger of the two backs. On the contrary, the two backs could also be playing to make a case for more volume next year, which could mean both have solid outings despite limited volume. Consider Etienne Jr. a decent starting option in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Parker Washington Jan 4 11:40am ET
Parker Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Parker Washington could serve as a decent replacement flex against the Indianapolis Colts. With many top players resting in the season's final week, you can do much worse than Washington. Last week he up put three receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown. After Drew Lock and the Giants offense cooked the Colts in Week 17, the Jaguars offense will try to do the same in what is a meaningless game for them. Besides Brian Thomas Jr., everyone on the Jaguars offense will be trying to showcase they deserve a significant role next season. As an injury replacement who has been solid but not really a standout, this game could be important for him long term. Expect a decent performance out of Washington in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Worthy Jan 4 11:40am ET
Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy may face the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Over the past few weeks, the rookie receiver has stepped up and become the focal point of the Kansas City offense. Given how important he is to the Chiefs, it would be reasonable to assume he could be rested in Week 18 along with the other starters. Worthy was not listed on the Chiefs injury report, so he could still play against the Broncos this week. The Broncos rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season, making them a neutral matchup. Worthy is ranked WR42 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings, making him a flex option this week. Fantasy managers starting Worthy should watch the pre-game inactives because the rookie may find himself on that list.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Pitts Jan 4 11:30am ET
Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts caught four of five passes from Michael Penix Jr. last week, going for 44 yards and a TD, however, the week before he caught a single pass from the lefty QB. So, there still isn't consistent involvement with his new QB yet, and it would be hard to trust him in the final week of the season as the 6-foot-6 pass catcher has produced five games of one catch or fewer in the last eight, while his TD last week was his first since Week 8. The 24-year-old does draw a favorable matchup, though, as the Falcons take on the Panthers in a must-win game to finish off the regular season. The Panthers have allowed the second-most fantasy production to TEs this season, and Pitts hauled in three catches for 70 yards earlier this season against them. Additionally, Darnell Mooney (shoulder) was a DNP on Friday and looks to be very questionable. If Mooney doesn't go, that should free up some targets for the other receivers. It won't feel comfortable doing it, but if there was a week to use Pitts, this could be it. The former first-round draft pick should be viewed as a high-end TE2 this week.

From RotoBaller

Carson Wentz Jan 4 11:30am ET
Carson Wentz

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Carson Wentz will face the Denver Broncos on the road in Week 18. Patrick Mahomes practiced in a limited fashion all week before being listed as doubtful for this week's contest. Since the Chiefs already clinched the top seed in the AFC, Mahomes and the other starters will likely be rested in the season finale. Wentz will face the Broncos, who rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. The 32-year-old is ranked QB15 in our RotoBaller rankings, making him a viable option in 2QB leagues this week. Fantasy managers in standard redraft leagues should leave Wentz on the waiver wire.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Mahomes Jan 4 11:20am ET
Patrick Mahomes

The Denver Broncos defense/special teams is the No. 1 unit in fantasy through 17 weeks of the season and should be viewed as a top-five play in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday as they host a Chiefs team that will be resting most of their notable offensive players for the playoffs, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, running backs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, and tight end Travis Kelce. While the Broncos' defense has been a little more vulnerable lately -- they've allowed 30-plus points in three of their last four games -- they lead the NFL in sacks (58) and are still allowing under 20 points per game on the year. In a must-win game to get into the playoffs themselves, Denver's D will come to play against backups and will have a high ceiling for fantasy managers still playing for a championship. They also rank sixth in takeaways on the year with 25.

From RotoBaller

Wil Lutz Jan 4 11:10am ET
Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz hasn't missed a kick since the Week 10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He'll take on the Chiefs again in the Week 18 regular-season finale as the Broncos look to punch their ticket to the postseason for the first time since the 2015 season. Since Lutz's potential game-winning kick was blocked against KC on Nov. 10, he has made all 12 of his field-goal attempts and all 22 of his extra-point opportunities for an ascending Broncos offense. Not only has the 30-year-old veteran been money for Denver by making 90.9% of his field-goal tries this year, but he's been afforded field-goal tries (tied for eighth in the league) and 41 extra-point attempts (sixth), which has led him to being the No. 7 fantasy kicker on the year in overall points. Against a Chiefs defense resting players for the playoffs, Lutz is an easy top-10 fantasy kicker for the final game of the regular season in the altitude in Denver.

From RotoBaller