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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Aidan O'Connell Aug 7 6:30pm ET
Aidan O'Connell

Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has yet to decide on a starting quarterback for the preseason opener against the Vikings, but he indicated that both Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell will each play a quarter. Pierce noted that the order of the starters is not significant because the other quarterback will start the following week. Throughout the offseason, Pierce allowed O'Connell to take the initial reps while equally distributing opportunities with Minshew. Early in camp, neither quarterback has managed to distinguish themselves. Although Minshew appeared to gain an edge over the past week, Pierce has maintained that the situation remains "status quo," with no final decision made. "This preseason game will be very telling," Pierce said of the QB battle. "I want to see these guys manage the ball, lead the team, and handle situational football." The unofficial depth chart for the game also lacks clarity, listing the first-team QB as either O'Connell or Minshew. While neither quarterback is likely to be worth rostering in single-QB leagues, monitoring the situation to determine who will be throwing passes to receiver Davante Adams and rookie tight end Brock Bowers is essential.

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Chase Edmonds Aug 7 6:20pm ET
Chase Edmonds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Chase Edmonds (undisclosed) remains sidelined and is nearing two weeks out. After a lackluster performance last year and an offseason marked by injuries, Edmonds' spot on the team is uncertain. He has been struggling with this injury since the early days of training camp and was expected to compete with rookie Bucky Irving and others for backup roles behind starting running back Rachaad White. Edmonds' productivity plummeted last season, as he managed only 176 rushing yards on 49 carries, putting him firmly on the roster bubble. On the plus side, Edmonds and White were the only running backs to see offensive snaps for Tampa Bay over the last ten weeks of the season, including the playoffs. While the backup role for any Tampa Bay running back may not be valuable in fantasy, Rachaad White managers must monitor the situation.

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Rondale Moore Aug 7 5:37pm ET
Rondale Moore

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Rondale Moore was carted off during training camp practice on Wednesday, and doctors put an air cast on his right leg. It's unclear how the injury happened, but it appears that Moore might be set to miss significant time with a serious injury.

Robbie Chosen Aug 7 5:30pm ET
Robbie Chosen

Veteran free-agent wide receiver Robbie Chosen worked out for the San Francisco 49ers at training camp on Wednesday and was spotted on the field. The Niners appear to be on the verge of trading receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and rookie first-rounder Ricky Pearsall just aggravated his shoulder injury, so the Niners are looking for receiver depth behind Deebo Samuel, Pearsall and Jauan Jennings this summer. The 31-year-old Chosen has gone downhill since posting his only 1,000-yard season with the Carolina Panthers in 2020. In nine games with the Miami Dolphins in 2023, he caught four of six targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. If Chosen signs with the Niners, he'll strictly be competing for a depth role and won't be a lock to make the club out of training camp. Chosen has a combined 24 receptions for 408 yards and two scores the last two years.

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Lamar Jackson Aug 7 5:20pm ET
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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson won't play in Friday's preseason opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, according to head coach John Harbaugh. Veteran signal-caller Josh Johnson will get the starting nod under center for Baltimore. Jackson is expected to play during the preseason, but that won't happen in the opener this weekend. The 27-year-old two-time NFL MVP missed some practices at the start of training camp with an illness, but he's fine now and is looking for an encore performance in 2024 after throwing for a career-high 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also rushing for 821 yards and an additional five TDs on the ground. Jackson isn't as prolific as a thrower as some other QBs, but his rushing prowess makes up for it and keeps him as a top-five fantasy signal-caller.

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Josh Downs Aug 7 5:10pm ET
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Updating an earlier report, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) suffered a high-ankle sprain during training camp practice on Wednesday, according to sources after an MRI exam. Downs' recovery time was estimated at four to six weeks, which puts him right up against the start of the 2024 regular season in early September. It's tough news for the Colts, especially since Downs was impressing in camp and was a potential breakout candidate in his second year in the NFL. The bottom line is that the 22-year-old's availability for Week 1 is very much in question, and it could take him some time to get back up to speed as a reliable fantasy wideout. With Downs now out for the foreseeable future, rookie Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce will step into starting roles in three-receiver sets alongside Michael Pittman. Downs' injury makes Mitchell a more attractive late-round flier.

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Mike Williams Aug 7 4:30pm ET
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Will Levis Aug 7 3:00pm ET
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Odell Beckham Jr. Aug 7 2:50pm ET
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Brian Robinson Jr. Aug 7 2:40pm ET
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Josh Palmer Aug 7 2:40pm ET
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Chase Claypool Aug 7 1:40pm ET
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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Chase Claypool (toe) did not practice at training camp on Wednesday. It's been over a week now since Claypool was last on the field at camp due to his toe injury. For a declining receiver that was already battling for a roster spot this summer, all of his missed practice time is really bad news. It's a shame, too, as Buffalo has plenty of opportunity at the receiver position in 2024 with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, their top two receivers a year ago, no longer in town. The 26-year-old former second-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2020 out of Notre Dame is going to need to get back on the field soon to have any shot at winning a 53-man roster spot to begin the regular season. Since going for 860 receiving yards in 2021 in his second season, Claypool has struggled to find a role in the NFL.

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Velus Jones Jr. Aug 7 1:40pm ET
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Chicago Bears wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. entered training camp on the roster bubble, although many expect the third-year wideout to be the team's starting kick returner in 2024. In an effort to be more versatile to the team, Jones agreed to spend this week of practice as a running back. He's spent most of camp to this point with the second-team offense while DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, rookie Rome Odunze and Tyler Scott take first-team reps. The 27-year-old's route-running has been erratic in his first two years in the NFL, so switching to RB is the team's creative attempt to unlock his big-play ability. Jones' return abilities on special teams will likely be enough to earn him a spot on the 53-man roster for the regular season, but fantasy managers in deeper leagues shouldn't be expecting much else in what is now a stacked receiver corps in Chicago.

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Jayden Reed Aug 7 1:30pm ET
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Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (calf) was held out of training camp practice on Wednesday due to a calf injury. The Packers haven't given any indication that Reed's calf injury is a long-term ailment, but it's worth noting after he also missed the start of training camp due to a toe injury. Even if his calf injury isn't serious, there's a good chance he'll be held out of this weekend's preseason opener as a precaution. The 24-year-old second-year pass-catcher turned heads with eight touchdowns on 64 receptions and 793 yards in 16 games (13 starts) in his rookie season last year. Reed showed he has a nose for the end zone and plenty of big-play ability through the air and on the ground, but volume could be a question as long as both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs stay healthy. Heading into Year 2 in 2024, fantasy managers should consider Reed more of a touchdown-dependent WR3/flex.

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Greg Dortch Aug 7 1:30pm ET
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Rondale Moore Aug 7 1:20pm ET
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Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Rondale Moore (leg) was carted off during training camp practice on Wednesday, and doctors put an air cast on his right leg, which is never a good sign. It's unclear how the injury happened, but it appears that Moore might be set to miss significant time with a serious injury. Making matters even worse, the 24-year-old's injury was of the non-contact variety, which makes it even more likely that he might have suffered a potential season-ending injury. The former second-round pick in 2021 was trying to carve out a role as receiver depth in Atlanta in his first year with the team behind Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III. If Moore indeed suffered a significant injury, it will only cement McCloud's status as the team's starting slot receiver to open the year.

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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has thrown just one preseason pass in his NFL career, but FOX Sports' Greg Auman expects that to change in the team's preseason opener this Saturday against the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers. "I'm excited for it," said Burrow, who's now healthy after suffering a wrist injury last November that ended his 2023 season. "I'm excited to get these reps and have these reps to get better right now." Head coach Zac Taylor understands there are injury risks with playing starters in the preseason, but he also recognizes the advantages of giving them real time in a huddle against an opponent. If Burrow does see preseason action this weekend, it probably won't be for more than an offensive series or two. And as long as the 27-year-old former first overall pick doesn't have a setback with his surgically repaired wrist in the preseason, he will be a prime bounce-back candidate in fantasy as a midrange QB1.

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