Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 10
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson led the offense with 20 carries for 116 yards and two touchdowns, adding three catches for 28 yards as well, but his team still fell to the Saints 20-17 on Sunday afternoon. Robinson was nearly not afforded the opportunity for his first score, as the Falcons decided to hand the ball off to Tyler Allgeier three straight times from the 1-yard line, only to be stuffed on all three tries. However, Atlanta went for it on 4th-and-1, with Robinson cashing it in for a TD. It was the fifth consecutive contest in which the 22-year-old went over 100 total yards rushing and receiving and seventh straight that he's caught at least three passes, making him even more valuable in PPR formats. The former first-round draft pick now has six rushing TDs on the season along with a receiving TD as well. The Falcons may lean more on the ground game again in Week 11 against a tough Broncos pass defense and Robinson will once again be locked in as an RB1.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings tight end Josh Oliver caught 4-of-6 targets for 52 yards in the team's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. The 27-year-old now has back-to-back weeks with at least four receptions and 50 yards, ironically the first two contests for which teammate T.J. Hockenson has been active. Oliver's yardage total was second on the team to his fellow tight end (who was superb in his own right with an 8/72 line), and the six targets were good enough for the same mark. Whether this kind of usage is prescriptive moving forward remains to be seen, but Jacksonville did an excellent job clamping down on the Vikings' wideouts in this one. Minnesota will get another tough test in Week 11 when they line up against the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller
According to Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen, quarterback Joe Flacco will remain under center "until he says otherwise." With Anthony Richardson benched, Flacco threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns off 26-for-35 passing in Sunday's loss to Buffalo. However, he also tossed three interceptions, with one resulting in a pick-six. With that in mind, the signal-caller hasn't been terrible in his starts this season, so he should continue to have sporadic value in multi-QB fantasy setups moving ahead as long as he remains starting, including against the Jets in Week 11, even more so if Michael Pittman Jr. (back) can suit up after missing Sunday's contest.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay Jr. (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's NFC East showdown with the Dallas Cowboys. The 33-year-old entered Week 10 with 27 tackles, one forced fumble, and five passes defensed. But after missing the Week 9 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars because of a groin injury, he lasted just three plays in this one before going down with an ankle injury. If he doesn't return, he'll finish without making any statistical contributions on the defensive end. Isaiah Rodgers could see more time on the field if Slay can't make it back.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Panthers quarterback Bryce Young completed 15-of-25 passes for 126 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a win against the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: He added 30 rushing yards. Young has looked far from dynamic recently but he's also not looking like a complete bust, either. At this point, Carolina is likely going to give him the rest of the season to prove he can be counted on and he's been doing much better of late. Young made some difficult throws today and managed the game well, even having a second touchdown pass wiped off due to a penalty. His dynasty value has been crushed, but he's still roster worthy at the moment.
Dynasty | Giants running back Tyrone Tracy had 103 rushing yards and a touchdown, but also a costly fumble in a loss to Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Tracy put up another solid day of running, including a 32-yard touchdown scamper in the second half. Unfortunately, he coughed the ball up deep in Giants territory in overtime and that set up the Panthers for the game winner. He was visibly upset on the sidelines and it marred an otherwise solid performance. Tracy has supplanted Devin Singletary as the starter and that shouldn't change. His dynasty value is still pointing up, despite the miscue.
Dynasty | Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard had 153 rushing yards, four catches, and 16 receiving yards in a win against the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Hubbard isn't going away, folks. The Panthers rewarded him with a solid contract extension and while Jonathon Brooks is waiting in the wings, Hubbard is still going to likely operate as the primary running back or "1A" in the offense when Brooks makes his debut. This has the makings of an ugly timeshare at some point, but Hubbard has been borderline amazing this season and the Panthers are going to keep riding him moving forward. He looks like a relative bargain at this point in dynasty leagues.
Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson reeled in 8-of-9 targets for 72 yards in Sunday's 12-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. It was anticipated that his usage would begin to tick up as he got further out from his knee injury, but the former Iowa Hawkeye pulled out an excellent performance in just his second game back from the IR. Hockenson's reception and yardage total both led the team, while his nine targets tied wide receiver Justin Jefferson for the most on the squad. The only thing missing from his line was a touchdown. Fellow tight end Josh Oliver was still decently involved (4/52), but this performance from the 27-year-old should put any feelings of unease about his workload moving forward to rest. The Vikings will hit the road in Week 11 to take on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for 308 yards on 23 of 38 passing, but failed to throw any touchdowns and tossed one interception in the 20-17 loss to the undermanned Saints. Bijan Robinson recorded both of the Falcon touchdowns on the ground, with many drives stalling and leading to four field goal attempts for kicker Younghoe Koo, only one of which he converted. There have been just two games this season in which Cousins was held without at least one TD pass, and both have come against the Saints. Now averaging 263 yards passing per game through the first ten weeks with a 17:8 TD:INT, the 36-year-old will look to get back on track next week, although it won't come easy against a strong Broncos pass defense. Look for him to be in the QB2 range in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels went 17-for-34 for 202 passing yards and no scores in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. He tallied just five rushing yards on three rushing attempts. This was his lowest output since his NFL debut in the opening week of the season. When the Commanders reached the red zone, they opted to let their running backs punch in the scores. Daniels found his top wideout, Terry McLaurin, throughout the game as he led the team with 113 yards with his longest reception going for 54 yards. Despite the poor showing, fantasy managers should continue to view the LSU product as a high-end QB1 heading into Week 11 when he faces the Philadelphia Eagles in a pivotal divisional tilt.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler took the lead role in the backfield once again with Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) sidelined and performed well as he tallied 44 yards and two scores in the Week 10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He added seven yards off one reception. This was his second straight game reaching the end zone and topping double-digit PPR points. While he could not get much rhythm in the running game, he was a force in the red zone as he ran in two short scores at the goal line. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor Robinson's status during the short week, as Ekeler could again lead the backfield on Thursday evening against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders running back Jeremy McNichols made the most of his limited workload on Sunday afternoon as he tallied seven yards and a score off four attempts in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He did not see a target in the passing game. After taking the backseat to Chris Rodriguez Jr. last weekend, McNichols returned to the No.2 role behind Austin Ekeler. McNichols salvaged his fantasy day by punching in a one-yard score in the third quarter. Even if Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) cannot return on Thursday evening, McNichols would again be considered a high-risk flex option, given his limited opportunities.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin led the team with 113 yards off five receptions in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. McLaurin's best catch of the afternoon came on a short slant that the wideout took for 54 yards in the third quarter. Despite only bringing in five receptions, McLaurin's big-play ability makes him a matchup-proof option from a fantasy perspective. Since Week 3, McLaurin has scored double-digit PPR points in every game. Fantasy managers should continue to view the former Ohio State Buckeye as a high-end WR2 heading into Week 11 when he faces the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed the 16th-most PPR points to opposing wideouts.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Noah Brown brought in three of his seven targets for 33 yards in their Week 10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brown continued to be deployed as the No.2 wideout opposite of Terry McLaurin as he saw the second-most targets on the team. Despite the poor showing in the box score, it was promising to see Jayden Daniels continue to look his way quite often. Brown has now caught at least three passes in each of the past three contests and has seen at least six targets in each of them. Given his current target share, Brown has emerged as a low-end flex option in 3WR formats, and he could be in store for another productive showing against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday evening.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had one catch for 11 yards in the 16-14 win against the Denver Broncos. Worthy finished the game with four targets but could not do much with his opportunities. The Chiefs remained undefeated by way of a last-second blocked field goal by Kansas City. Since the arrival of JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeAndre Hopkins, the rookie receiver has become a near afterthought in the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs style favors possession receivers, and Worthy has been more boom-or-bust so far. Worthy will look to be more successful in Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills, who rank sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Starting Worthy in any matchup will be difficult until he displays consistency as a pass catcher.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz saw a team-high eight targets in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. However, he could only bring in four of them for 31 yards. Despite the modest output in the box score, this was a great bounce-back showing for Ertz, as he brought in his lone target last weekend for a mere five yards. During Weeks 6 through 8, the 34-year-old caught at least four passes in each game and saw at least five targets. Fantasy managers should continue to view Ertz as a low-end TE1 going forward, given his role as a prominent pass catcher in the Washington offense. Next week, he will face the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed the 17th-most PPR points to opposing tight ends.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings running back Cam Akers rushed 13 times for 38 yards and brought in his lone target for an additional nine yards through the air in Week 10's 12-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Akers didn't get his first touch until the second quarter but saw eight of them after backfield mate Aaron Jones (chest) exited the game in the second half after picking up an injury. Jones returned for Minnesota's final two drives, which is seemingly good news for his future status. However, fantasy managers will want to watch how he looks over the next week of practice. If he were to miss time, Akers would slot into the lead role in the Vikings backfield. The 25-year-old did share touches with fellow running back Ty Chandler (four rushes, 18 yards), but the former is the preferred option for the team. Minnesota will get another staunch test next Sunday when they square off against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson caught 5-of-9 targets for 48 yards in the team's 12-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. The Vikings offense sputtered on Sunday afternoon, failing to convert any of their five red zone trips into touchdowns. Quarterback Sam Darnold tossed three interceptions on the day -- one of them coming in the end zone, which was intended for the superstar wideout -- and was largely ineffective against a Jaguars defense that limited big plays and played Minnesota tough. The yardage total was a season-low for Jefferson, and it was the first time since Week 3 that he hauled in less than six receptions. The LSU product is always a bounce-back candidate after a poor showing, but he'll get another challenging outing next Sunday when the Vikings line up against the Tennessee Titans on the road.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had four catches for 56 yards in the 16-14 win against the Denver Broncos. Hopkins was third on the team with five targets in this contest. The Chiefs narrowly escaped with the victory on a game-sealing blocked field goal by Kansas City. Hopkins did not produce as he did against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, but he was still the undisputed WR1 for the Kansas City passing attack. Hopkins will look to produce in Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills, who rank sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. It will be a tough matchup for the veteran receiver, but he's talented enough to produce with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball. Fantasy managers should view Hopkins as a low-end WR2 heading into a tough matchup against the Bills.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 24-of-38 passes for 241 yards, tossing three interceptions in Sunday's 12-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. He added 28 rushing yards on seven carries and was sacked once for a loss of eight yards. The troubles started early for Darnold and the Vikings, as two of his interceptions came on back-to-back drives in the first half -- one on a 16-play drive that took Minnesota down to the Jacksonville 7-yard line. It was a rough outing for the 27-year-old, who has now thrown five INTs in his last two games -- a number he reached through the team's first six outings. The Jags' defense did an excellent job limiting explosive plays and really clamped down in the red zone, holding the Vikes to field goals or less in all five opportunities. Better days are ahead for the team's offense, but they'll get another tough test next Sunday when they hit the road to take on the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller