Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) was forced to exit early during Saturday's game against the Cleveland Browns. Flowers injured his knee while hauling in his lone reception on the game during the second quarter of Saturday's win. He walked off the field under his own power, but Flowers didn't return to the game. The expectation is Flowers will undergo further testing to determine the severity of the injury. Right now, the Ravens are preparing to be without Flowers for at least next week. Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace would likely be the primary receiving options if Flowers is forced to miss time.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson led the team to another AFC North title while dismantling the Cleveland Browns by a score of 35-10 on Saturday. The two-time MVP finished the game with 217 yards and two touchdowns on 16-for-32 throwing and nine carries for 63 yards. This game put him over the 4,000 passing-yard mark for the first time in his career and he became the first QB to ever finish with at least 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards. He also leads the league in seven different passing stats according to pro-football-reference. Jackson and company will host a first-round playoff game once the matchups are decided.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox hasn't been able to much on the field this season. In fact, Knox has two receptions or less in each of the last five games. The 28-year-old is now the backup tight end with Dalton Kincaid emerging as the top option in Buffalo. Knox has fallen back on the pecking order with the Bills having a handful of viable receiving options. That being said, Knox won't be much of a fantasy option for the Week 18 matchup against the New England Patriots. Possibly, Knox gets more chances if the Bills rest some starters, but fantasy managers should look elsewhere for help this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell has been fairly quiet outside of his six-catch performance in Week 10. Last week, Mitchell hauled in two of his four targets for 22 yards in the loss to the New York Giants. The rookie wideout has put together a lackluster rookie season with 23 receptions for 312 yards and zero touchdowns heading into the Week 18 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mitchell is too far down on the depth chart to be considered a viable option right now.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry posted a huge game to finish off the regular season and help the team go back-to-back as AFC North champs. The veteran back posted 138 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries to go along with two catches for 23 yards on three targets. He averaged a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry as he punished the Browns' defense. Henry now has six seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards and fell just 106 yards shy of his career high. The Ravens now wait to see who they will host in the first round of the playoffs.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Kenny Pickett (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of the Week 18 matchup against the New York Giants. Pickett suffered a ribs injury in relief of Jalen Hurts (concussion) in Week 16. Pickett received the start last week, but only made it through three quarters before exiting due to his ribs issue. Pickett hasn't practiced this week and won't suit up for the regular season finale. That means, Tanner McKee will be under center with a majority of the Eagles backups playing on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills kicker Tyler Bass has a lower floor in Week 18 given the expectation that many of his teammates will play a limited number of snaps. The Bills have already secured the AFC's No. 2 seed, and that won't change with the outcome of Sunday's contest against the New England Patriots. As a result, several key starters, including quarterback Josh Allen, are expected to only play a select number of drives in the regular-season finale. Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White are both in line to earn meaningful snaps against the Patriots, but the Bills' offensive upside is capped given that Trubisky and White have combined for just five pass attempts all year long. If the two veteran quarterbacks have some trouble moving the ball down the field, scoring opportunities will be much harder to come by for Bass. He still ranks as a fringe top-12 fantasy kicker, but both his ceiling and floor have been reduced for Week 18. Managers would be wise to at least explore alternative options before Sunday's games kick off.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans kicker Matthew Wright is not a household name in fantasy football, but he should generate some buzz on the waiver wire in deep leagues. Wright is replacing Nick Folk (abdomen) for the second week in a row, and as he takes on the Houston Texans this Sunday, he'll look to build on last week's solid stat line that included one extra point and a 2-for-2 success rate on field goals. The 28-year-old kicker has been dependable in stints with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs this year, helping him rank as a top-18 fantasy kicker for the final week of the regular season. Wright warrants consideration among fantasy managers seeking a last-minute fill-in.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Troy Franklin remains an unreliable option in fantasy football lineups ahead of Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Kansas City Chiefs. Franklin, a rookie out of Oregon, has continued to showcase his existing rapport with quarterback Bo Nix, catching 26 passes for 251 yards and a pair of touchdowns in 2024. However, he hasn't caught more than two passes in a single game since Week 7, and he remains behind Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele, and Marvin Mims Jr. in the offensive pecking order. As long as the Broncos' top three receivers stay healthy, Franklin won't see enough snaps or targets to justify starting him in fantasy football. He can be benched in dynasty leagues and left on waivers in redraft formats.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson warrants some consideration in deeper fantasy leagues as he continues to take on an expanded role. With both Stefon Diggs (knee) and Tank Dell (knee) done for the season, Hutchinson has been tasked with stepping up as the Texans' No. 2 receiver behind Nico Collins. He caught two of four targets against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day, but he certainly wasn't alone as the entire offense stalled repeatedly. He and his Texans teammates have a chance to get back on track in Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed the third-most points to opposing teams in 2024. Tennessee has surrendered the second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points to wide receivers in 2024, but we still like Hutchinson's ability to build on last week's subpar showing and catch at least a few passes from quarterback C.J. Stroud on Sunday. The second-year receiver out of Iowa State ranks as a low-end WR4 in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton is not a reliable fantasy option for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. Slayton did catch a 32-yard touchdown pass last weekend, but he has just one catch in each of his last three games. The 27-year-old has settled into the No. 3 receiver role, taking a backseat to both Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson. He took advantage of opportunities to shine earlier in the year, but as long as Nabers and Robinson are both healthy, Slayton's floor and productivity are both limited. Fantasy managers can leave Slayton on waivers in most leagues as the Giants take on the Eagles in their final game of the season.
From RotoBaller
With Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (quad) off the Week 18 injury report, backup Cam Akers is not a starting option against the Detroit Lions. Though the veteran has become Minnesota's clear second option out of the backfield and scored touchdowns in two of the past three weeks, he has recorded fewer than 40 rushing yards in eight straight games. With only six catches during that time frame, Akers simply isn't getting enough volume to be trustworthy in the Vikings' most important game of the regular season. Managers in formats that play Week 18 should look for another option at running back.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Will Shipley (concussion) is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the New York Giants. However, given that he logged a full practice on Friday, the rookie should be able to suit up for Sunday's regular-season finale, barring a setback. Shipley has taken a backseat to Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell this season, but with Barkley expected to sit out Week 18, the rookie out of Clemson has a chance to earn increased opportunities. The 22-year-old has been mostly used as a ball carrier this season, rushing 20 times while failing to command a single target. He's likely headed for a change-of-pace role in Week 18, but with his exact involvement unknown, Shipley is tough to trust in fantasy football. He ranks as a low-end RB4 and should be avoided in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Devaughn Vele is a desperation WR5 option with the Broncos at Kansas City in Week 18. The rookie has just five catches in his past four games after a nice run from Weeks 10-12, and played only half of the Broncos' offensive snaps last week. However, Denver looks to be getting a second-rate opponent with Kansas City resting many of its key players in the regular-season finale. The Broncos do not have that luxury and need a win to assure a Wild Card berth. Vele figures to be part of the action for Denver, but probably not enough to warrant a starting spot in standard-format leagues that play Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge should not be considered a playable option despite a possible opportunity Sunday against Carolina. With the Falcons unlikely to have wide receiver Darnell Mooney (shoulder), the Falcons have an opening, but the journeyman receiver hasn't been reliable enough to count on in Week 18. Earlier this year, he one catch against Dallas despite playing 81% of offensive snaps. Hodge has just one catch in the past five weeks total, a rookie quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., and a solid Atlanta running game that figures to be the central part of the gameplan on Sunday. Managers in formats that play Week 18 have better options elsewhere.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Drew Sample caught all four of his targets for 14 yards on Saturday in his team's 19-17 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Though the yardage total wasn't anything to write home about, the veteran tight end tied a season high in catches. More importantly, Cincinnati's offense did just enough to earn a fifth straight victory that kept its playoff hopes alive for another day. Whether Sample and the Bengals get a shot in the Wild Card round will come down to Week 18, when Cincy needs both Denver and Miami to lose.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Tyler Badie (back) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Kansas City Chiefs. In order for Badie to play, the Broncos would have been required to activate him from injured reserve on Saturday afternoon. That transaction did not happen as the Broncos reaffirmed their plan to move forward with a backfield featuring Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, and Audric Estime on Sunday. All three running backs should carve out significant roles, but McLaughlin has the most fantasy appeal as an RB3/FLEX option.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals kicker Cade York had a perfect night Saturday in Pittsburgh, converting all four field goal attempts and his lone extra point in a 19-17 victory that kept the Bengals' playoff hopes alive. After a brutal miss last week that forced the Bengals into a tense overtime against Denver, there was no such kicker drama in Week 18. The journeyman converted field goals from 48, 27, 35, and 23 yards, the last of which proved to be the game-winner as Cincinnati held on in the fourth quarter. Whether York gets the chance to kick in the postseason will come down to results elsewhere, as the Bengals need Denver and Miami to lose Sunday to make the AFC playoffs.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (hip) is unlikely to play Sunday against the New York Jets, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Miami will once again start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, who oversaw the win in Cleveland last week, as they attempt to qualify for the playoffs, which would require another victory today and help elsewhere. Though Tagovailoa was widely expected to miss Week 18, the quarterback said this week that he can play next week if Miami advances. Rapoport, however, reported his status would be "up in the air" if Miami plays a Wild Card game. But first, the Dolphins have to get to that bridge before they can cross it.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers held the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals offense to 19 points while recording four sacks, an interception, and two forced fumbles in a Week 18 loss. While the Bengals were able to move the ball effectively on Saturday night, the Steelers' defense stepped up in the red zone and forced them to kick four field goals. Rookie defensive back Beanie Bishop Jr. picked off quarterback Joe Burrow late in the second quarter with Cincinnati in Pittsburgh territory. The viability of Pittsburgh's DST for playoff fantasy leagues and DFS contests will largely depend on its opponent in the wild-card round.
From RotoBaller