Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (knee) was estimated as a non-participant on Wednesday's injury report. The Dolphins didn't hold an official practice, but if they had, Waddle would not have participated. This is a concerning start to the week for Waddle, who missed last Sunday's game after being a non-participant the whole week prior. He still has a few days to get healthy and log a limited or full practice session, but if that doesn't happen, he'll likely sit out Week 17 against the Cleveland Browns. Simply put, fantasy managers should stay tuned for key updates on his status over the next few days. If he can't play, Malik Washington would likely step up as the Dolphins' No. 2 receiver behind Tyreek Hill (wrist, rest).
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (knee) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday's practice estimate. In other words, the Packers did not practice on Wednesday, but if they had, Watson would not have participated. The 25-year-old injured his knee during Monday night's win over the New Orleans Saints. His game was abbreviated as he played just 43 percent of the offensive snaps, exiting the contest with one target and zero receptions. Watson has been a hit-or-miss fantasy receiver this season, and even if he suits up against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17, most managers can justify leaving him on the bench.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers tight ends Tucker Kraft (hip) and Luke Musgrave (ankle) were both listed as limited participants on Wednesday's practice estimate. The Packers noted that since they didn't practice on Wednesday, their injury report was merely an estimation. In other words, if they had practiced, both Kraft and Musgrave would have been limited. While any sort of appearance on the injury report is newsworthy and should be monitored, players who are limited on Wednesday typically progress to full participants by the end of the week and are able to play on Sunday. We'll gain more insight into the tight ends' statuses over the next two days of practice, but as of now, fantasy managers should expect them to suit up in Week 17 against the Minnesota Vikings. Of the duo, Kraft has the most fantasy appeal, ranking as a fringe top-12 option at the tight end position.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (knee, shin) and Cedric Tillman (concussion) were both limited during practice on Wednesday. Jeudy has not yet missed a game this season, catching 72 passes for 1,072 yards and four touchdowns while ranking as the overall WR12 in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Tillman was coming on strong before suffering a serious head injury. The second-year receiver has missed four consecutive games and could be in danger of missing a fifth. Ever since Amari Cooper was traded, Tillman had been averaging 5.2 catches, 66 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game. While both pass-catchers have garnered significant fantasy appeal at points throughout this season, their intrigue has dwindled ahead of Week 17. The primary reason for their reduced value is Cleveland's recent decision to bench Jameis Winston for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, shifting from an offense centered around launching the football and making risky throws to implementing a more composed, run-oriented scheme. Jeudy had one of his worst games of the season in Thompson-Robinson's first start last week, catching just two passes for 20 yards. As the Browns' offense continues to stall and its quarterback lacks dependability, Cleveland's receivers may continue to struggle. Both Jeudy and Tillman have decent upside, but their extremely low floors drop them to the bottom of the WR3/FLEX tier in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (hip) was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. While having a quarterback on the injury report isn't necessarily ideal in the fantasy playoffs, managers shouldn't panic. Tagovailoa was limited with the same injury two days in a row last week, but he logged a full practice on Friday and had no limitations in Sunday's win over the San Francisco 49ers. We could see the 26-year-old log a similar practice participation pattern this week, and managers should only start to get concerned if he misses a practice entirely. For now, all signs point to Tagovailoa suiting up against the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. He ranks as a fringe top-12 fantasy quarterbacks against the Browns' subpar pass defense, but his floor could drop a little if he has to deal with unfavorable weather conditions in Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (wrist, rest) was listed as a limited participant on the team's practice estimation Wednesday. It's unclear whether the wrist injury or the rest day was the primary factor for Hill being estimated as limited, but the bottom line is that fantasy managers should continue to monitor his practice status over the next few days. The good news is that a limited practice on Wednesday typically bodes well for a player's availability on Sunday. In fact, last week, Hill missed Wednesday's practice entirely, and he still managed to suit up against the San Francisco 49ers, albeit after being listed as questionable. Managers should check back for updates over the next few days, but as of now, all signs point to the 30-year-old suiting up against a subpar Cleveland Browns pass defense. It's worth noting that Hill could end up starting alongside Malik Washington if teammate Jaylen Waddle (knee), who was estimated as a non-participant on Wednesday, is inactive for a second consecutive week.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns quarterbacks Dorian Thompson-Robinson (calf) and Jameis Winston (right shoulder) were limited participants during practice on Wednesday. The Browns' quarterback problems have been no secret this year, and it now appears that a pair of injuries have further complicated the situation. Thompson-Robinson earned his first start of the season last week, completing 20 of 34 pass attempts for 157 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also rushed for 32 yards. Most of his positive momentum came in garbage time, as the 25-year-old didn't inspire much confidence in his playing ability and the Browns' overall offensive performance. Still, it appears he remains the preferred option for the job over Winston, who tossed eight interceptions over his final three games under center. Injuries could certainly impact the starting quarterback decision for Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins, but assuming both are healthy, Thompson-Robinson will likely be named the team's primary quarterback for the second week in a row. We can't rule out snaps for Bailey Zappe, either. The 25-year-old Western Kentucky product was active as Thompson-Robinson's backup last week since Winston was inactive as the emergency third quarterback. None of these players have legitimate fantasy appeal long-term.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver John Metchie III led the team with eight targets on Wednesday against the Baltimore Ravens, which he turned into five catches for 48 yards. Unfortunately for the everybody on the Houston offense, it was an all-around poor day as the team failed to score on offense and was blown out 31-2. With receiver Tank Dell (knee) and Stefon Diggs (knee) both lost for the season, Houston involved Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, and Robert Woods in the passing game behind top receiver Nico Collins, but the offense ground to a halt against the Ravens as nothing seemed to work. Houston will hope for a much better outing on Jan. 5 at Tennessee.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz drew six targets on Wednesday against Baltimore, but finished with just two catches for 21 yards. The Texans' offense looked awful in the game, with quarterback C.J. Stroud off target on a number of throws and the offensive line unable to sustain much of anything in the running or passing game as Houston failed to score a point on offense. Without No. 2 receiver Tank Dell (knee), the veteran tight end figured to be in line for a bit more receiving work, but a decent number of targets didn't lead to much production. Schultz likely will remain in the TE2 range when the Texans conclude the regular season on Jan. 5 at Tennessee.
From RotoBaller
C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans delivered a dud in Week 17, finishing 17-for-31 for 185 yards with no touchdowns and an interception as the Houston offense failed to score in a 31-2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The sophomore was off target on a number of throws, and he was done no favors by a Texans offensive line that allowed five sacks and paved the way for only 58 rushing yards. The young quarterback and the Houston offense couldn't establish much of anything as Baltimore completely dominated the game from the outset. Stroud now has an 8:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the past six games, during which he hit 250 passing yards only once. Houston will look for better as it concludes the regular season in Week 18 at Tennessee.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins caught three of his six targets for 59 yards on Wednesday in a 31-2 blowout loss against the Baltimore. The Texans' offense had a brutal showing in which quarterback C.J. Stroud was off target, the offensive line surrendered five sacks, and the Texans gained only one rushing first down. As a result of the Houston offense failing to score, the Michigan product also had his lowest-scoring fantasy output of the season for a game in which he appeared. Fantasy managers will rightly be disappointed Houston's passing game managed so little against a Ravens secondary that has struggled against top-tier receivers this season. Collins and the Texans will look for improvement on Jan. 5 at Tennessee.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon managed only 39 total yards as the Houston offense failed to score in a 31-2 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day. The veteran back rushed only nine times, picking up 26 yards, and caught two of his three targets for another 13 yards. The Texans' offense was awful in the game, gaining only 211 total yards and one rushing first down while putting up their lowest scoring output of the year. Mixon was not alone in having a bad day, but the performance was a far cry from what managers in the championship round were hoping to see, even against a solid Ravens run defense. He and the Texans will conclude the regular season on Jan. 5 at Tennessee.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (knee) was listed as a non-participant in Wednesday's estimated practice participation report. Njoku sustained a knee injury in the Week 16 matchup versus the Cincinnati Bengals. He underwent an MRI on Monday and has not been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins. The results of Monday's MRI have not been released yet. After missing Week 15 with a hamstring injury, Njoku returned last Sunday and caught eight passes for 66 yards in the Week 16 loss to the Bengals. The 28-year-old will have a few more chances to practice this week in order to have a chance to suit up against the Dolphins. If Njoku does get ruled out in Week 17, look for Jordan Akins and Blake Whiteheart to see an uptick in snaps, but neither is an option for fantasy championship week.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens rookie running back Rasheen Ali (hip) won't return in Wednesday's game against the Houston Texans due to a hip injury. Ali suffered a hip injury during the Christmas game versus Houston and has been ruled out. He lost three yards on his only carry of the game. Ali also had a kickoff return for 23 yards. Justice Hill (concussion) was inactive, leaving Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell as the only healthy Ravens running back with both Ali and Hill sidelined. Ali's next chance to return will be the regular season finale against the Cleveland Browns.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (toe) was listed as a non participant in Wednesday's estimated injury report. He is dealing with a toe injury and would have missed Wednesday's session if the Giants had practiced on Wednesday. The 21-year-old has dealt with various injuries throughout the year but has only missed two games (Week 5 and Week 6) due to a concussion. Despite poor quarterback play from the Giants, Nabers is having a great rookie season. The No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has caught 97 passes for 969 yards and four touchdowns over 13 games this season. He will have a few more days to try to practice, with the chance of being able to suit up against the Indianapolis Colts. Nabers is a mid-range WR2 and should be in all lineups if active for fantasy championship week.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett is once again not on the fantasy radar in Week 17 when Seattle travels to Chicago to play the Bears. Lockett has received very little target volume since Week 7. Even in Week 16 against the Minnesota Vikings, Lockett could only earn two targets despite quarterback Geno Smith throwing the ball 43 times. The Seahawks have consolidated their targets among the running backs and their top two wide receivers. Lockett is a great veteran presence for this team, but he is not integral to the game plan at all. Despite the Bears being a solid matchup for opposing wide receivers in recent weeks, Lockett should remain on waivers.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (elbow) looks to be in line to receive the majority of the running back workload in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears. With Kenneth Walker III (ankle) dealing with another injury, Charbonnet should step in as a high-end RB2 or even an RB1 against a Bears team with issues stopping the run. Charbonnet has delivered high-end fantasy output in each of his four starts in relief of Walker this season. The highlight of those starts was a 38.3 PPR fantasy point outburst in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals. Despite only logging four starts and receiving limited volume in his other games this season, Charbonnet is the RB26 on the season. Charbonnet should have solid running lanes all night long and will continue to be a significant factor in the passing game as well. Charbonnet has been banged up this week with an elbow injury. However, he has been practicing fully and appears to be in good shape to receive a heavy workload in a must-win game for Seattle.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant (knee) is not a player you can trust to lead your team to a fantasy championship this week. The Seahawks play the Chicago Bears in Week 17 who are middle-of-the-road against opposing tight ends in fantasy. Fant receives solid target volume in Seattle's offense, but his yardage is often capped, and his touchdown upside is limited. Rookie tight end AJ Barner seems to be the team's preferred tight end target in the red zone. Fant has not scored a touchdown since 2022. Fant has earned at least four targets in seven straight games. However, he has only exceeded 26 yards in three of those games. If their yardage is limited and touchdowns are scarce, then it is difficult to trust a tight end in fantasy football. Leave Fant on waivers this week.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (finger, concussion) did not practice in Wednesday's estimated injury report. Hurts exited Sunday's loss against the Washington Commanders early with a concussion and did not return. The 26-year-old is also dealing with a broken finger. He is in concussion protocol and will need to be cleared by Saturday to have a chance to suit up in Sunday's contest versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are banged up at quarterback as Kenny Pickett (ribs) was also limited Wednesday with a rib injury. Philadelphia did bring in former quarterback Ian Book for a team visit on Wednesday. Hurts will need to be cleared and practice in some fashion in order to be active against Dallas. Fantasy managers will need to monitor Hurts' status for the week but should have a backup plan in case the star quarterback is ruled out for fantasy championship week.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints Chris Olave (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. Olave was ruled out for Monday's game against the Green Bay Packers and has been sidelined since Week 9 due to a concussion. The 24-year-old was designated to return from injured reserve last week and is trending in the right direction toward playing in Sunday's game against the Las Vegas Raiders. He will need to be officially activated later this week in order to have a chance to suit up in Week 17. Olave would give the banged-up Saints wide receiver corps a boost after catching 32 passes for 400 yards and a touchdown over eight games. The former first-round pick would be a low-end WR3 this week if active. The Saints were recently shut out, and New Orleans' offense has been downgraded, with Derek Carr (hand) sidelined. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor the situation and hope Olave can return to action for fantasy championship week.
From RotoBaller