Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18
The Los Angeles Rams defense and special teams unit has been a huge part of their late-season success, and they'll look to finish the season strong in a matchup with the Seahawks. The Rams are resting multiple offensive starters, but it isn't clear how many defensive stars could also have a lighter workload. The young unit has held opponents under 10 points in three straight games while forcing four turnovers and totaling eight sacks. They had two goal-line interceptions against Kyler Murray last year to seal the win that earned them the NFC West title, which is why they have already clinched the playoffs. Seattle has been a pretty good matchup for DST this season, turning the ball over 24 times in 16 games and giving up 52 sacks. The Seahawks only scored six points last week in Chicago, and the Rams will hope to keep them in check again on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (hip), outside linebacker Amare Barno (shoulder), linebacker Josey Jewell (concussion), safety Lonnie Johnson (neck, shoulder) and outside linebacker DJ Johnson (personal) have all been ruled out for the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Additionally, defensive end A'Shawn Robinson (neck) and outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (rest) are listed as questionable. Horn, a former first-rounder in 2021, will end up missing the final two games of his fourth and best season in the NFL. In 15 starts, Horn compiled a career-high 68 tackles (49 solo), two sacks, five tackles for loss, an interception and a career-high 13 pass breakups. With Horn out again, Caleb Farley will get another start. Despite the Falcons starting a rookie QB, Carolina's defensive unit should be well off the fantasy radar in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett is not worth a fantasy roster spot in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. While Lockett would likely like to have a good game in what could be his final game in a Seahawks uniform, the fact is that he has been completely phased out of Seattle's offense with the emergence of wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Week 17 against the Chicago Bears was Lockett's best game in weeks. He caught three passes for 20 yards last Thursday. It was encouraging to see Lockett earn more than three targets for the first time since Week 9. However, his four targets were not exactly groundbreaking. Unless Lockett finds the end zone, he will be a useless fantasy asset this week. Leave him on waivers once again in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant has built some momentum in recent weeks. He has earned at least five targets in three straight games. He has also reached at least 43 yards in two straight games. Fant will look to carry that momentum into a Week 18 road tilt with the Los Angeles Rams. Fant's issue recently has been his inability to find the end zone. The Seahawks have had trouble throwing touchdowns all season with quarterback Geno Smith having only tossed 17. While Fant has never scored more than four touchdowns in a season, he has been especially dry over the last couple of years. Fant has not scored a touchdown since the 2022 season. In Week 18, Fant will play a Rams defense that is No. 27 against opposing tight ends in fantasy. It feels like a game in which he could get loose. With many teams resting players and a few quarterback injuries around the league affecting the output of their skill players, Fant could be a desperation option for fantasy managers in need of a tight end this week.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet is in another great spot to succeed in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. With Kenneth Walker III (ankle) on injured reserve, Charbonnet will have the backfield all to himself. With the exception of Week 17 against the Chicago Bears, Charbonnet has put up massive numbers in his starts in place of Walker this season. Even his outing against the Bears was serviceable, and his lack of high-end output was more a product of the offense's inefficiencies as a whole. The Rams are middle-of-the-road against opposing running backs in fantasy this season. They have allowed 19.5 PPR points per game to opposing backfields. Expect the Seahawks to lean on Charbonnet early and often in both the running and passing games. He should be in every championship lineup in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is potentially a strong fantasy option in Week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chargers will either be locked into the No. 6 seed or have a chance at the No. 5 seed in the final game of the regular season, depending on the results of Saturday's games. If the Bolts have a chance to better their playoff position, Herbert will certainly play and should be a top-10 option at the position against a Raiders defense with nothing to play for. Fantasy managers should have a backup option available, however, as Herbert and other Chargers starters could sit out if the team is locked into the sixth seed, which would give the start to backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said he'd "do what's best for the team" when asked about whether starters would play.
From RotoBaller
The Seattle Seahawks D/ST is a potential fantasy option in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are resting several key starters ahead of this matchup. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is slated to start with a crew of backup weapons around him. The Seahawks have improved defensively as the season has worn on. With the Rams short-handed this week, this unit should have no trouble getting to the quarterback and creating turnovers. They are an excellent streaming option and will look to build momentum heading into the offseason. With head coach Mike Macdonald already showing that he has made a mark on this defense, expect bigger things from the Seahawks D/ST in 2025. For now, you can safely deploy them in fantasy championships.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee has played limited snaps in the last two weeks, and his workload against the Seahawks is very uncertain. The veteran tight end worked his way back after a catastrophic knee injury suffered in the playoffs last year. He played 14 snaps against the Jets and 17 snaps against the Cardinals, and in those two games, he had three catches for 20 yards and a memorable touchdown. With the Rams resting key starters in Week 18 like Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp, Higbee could continue to ramp up, or he could sit entirely. Even if he does play, though, the Rams will likely avoid putting him in harms way if at all possible. Higbee is RotoBaller's TE34 this week, so he's not a great start in any format.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start of the season when the Rams host the Seahawks in their regular season finale. With their playoff spot secure, the Rams will rest multiple starters including Matthew Stafford, letting Jimmy G see his first action of the season. The 33-year-old backup signed a one-year deal with the Rams and will be a free agent after this season. He last played in 2023 for the Raiders when he completed 110 of 169 pass attempts (65.1%) for 1,205 yards in 12 games with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. He's RotoBaller's QB29 this week and is not a good fantasy option since the Rams won't have their starters on offense, but they'll likely face most of the Seahawks' regulars.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters Week 18 five receptions short of fellow wide receiver Tyler Lockett's single-season team record. Smith-Njigba is in prime position to break the record in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Smith-Njigba is entering the final week of what has become a breakout season. In 16 games, JSN sits as the WR7 with 1,121 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He has been nothing short of excellent as he has stepped into Seattle's No. 1 wide receiver role. The Rams have been relatively generous to opposing wide receivers in fantasy so Smith-Njigba should have no problems getting loose in the final game of the season. Additionally, JSN had his best outing of his career against the Rams in Week 9. He caught seven passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. He has been nothing short of excellent ever since. Deploy JSN as a WR1 this week.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf will look to top 1,000 receiving yards for the third time in his career in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Metcalf is currently 61 yards short. Unfortunately, Metcalf has been very quiet of late. He has not exceeded four receptions since Week 11, and he has not exceeded 70 yards since Week 7. His fantasy output has been heavily impacted by the lack of production. Metcalf's best outing since Seattle's Week 10 bye is 14.7 PPR fantasy points. If you have made it this far in your league, it is likely not because of Metcalf's performances. He is a risky flex play with limited upside this week. Soon, we will need to start considering Metcalf's future as a fantasy asset given the massive fall in production during the second half of this season.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks kicker Jason Myers is a solid option as your fantasy kicker in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. While the Seahawks do not have much to play for as far as playoff seeding is concerned, they can push the Rams down to the No. 4 seed in the NFC and finish the season with 10 wins. As such, expect the offense to fight hard throughout this game. That should put Myers in scoring positions often. Myers has scored in the single digits in each of the last three games. This week provides him an opportunity to get back into double-digit scoring. He has been incredibly accurate all season long, having only missed four field goals. All he needs is a chance. He can safely be deployed in fantasy championships this week.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders (ankle) was a full participant in Friday's practice but is still considered questionable to play in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Atlanta Falcons. Sanders also practiced in full on Wednesday but was limited on Thursday. The Panthers opened the 27-year-old's 21-day practice window to return from Injured Reserve on Wednesday, but they'll have to officially activate him from IR on Saturday if they want to let him play in the final game of the season on Sunday. Despite having not played since Week 10, Sanders could be the favorite to lead Carolina's backfield this weekend in Atlanta if he's activated since Chuba Hubbard (calf, knee) is on IR. However, if Sanders does return, we wouldn't recommend relying on him for fantasy purposes with Raheem Blackshear and Mike Boone also likely being involved for Carolina.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith checks in as a QB2 in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Smith has been a poor fantasy quarterback recently. He has only exceeded 13.32 fantasy points once since Seattle's Week 10 bye. The Seahawks will face a middle-of-the-road Rams defense in Week 18. Neither team has a lot to play for with the Rams guaranteed to win the NFC West and the Seahawks eliminated from playoff contention. However, Smith has several attainable incentives in his contract. Most notably, Smith will receive a bonus if the Seahawks reach 10 wins. Despite the lack of playoff motivation, expect Smith to come out and put his best foot forward this weekend. He also needs to prove to the Seahawks that he can be their quarterback of the future. He has a releasable contract at the conclusion of this season and he will likely want a contract extension should he remain with the team. Still, recent weeks have shown us that Smith is not a trustable fantasy asset right now. Deploy him as a QB2 in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo (abdomen) popped up on the Week 18 injury report on Thursday and is now questionable to play on Sunday in the regular-season finale against the division-rival Houston Texans. Okonkwo was limited in Thursday's practice and missed Friday's session, so he should be considered on the wrong side of questionable. The Titans are only playing for draft positioning in the regular-season finale, so there's a good chance they'll hold out any injured players that are questionable like Okonkwo. If the 25-year-old doesn't play this weekend, look for Nick Vannett and Josh Whyle to get some more run at the tight end position for Tennessee. Although Okonkwo started making some noise in recent weeks as a pass-catcher, he was mostly off the fantasy radar in 2024 and will finish with 52 catches for 479 yards and only two TDs in 16 games if he doesn't play in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard (hamstring) was limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable to play in a must-win game in the Week 18 regular-season finale versus the division-rival New Orleans Saints. Shepard was inactive for the team's Week 17 win over the division-rival Carolina Panthers but is hoping to return to help the Bucs secure a playoff berth and the NFC South title. If he does return, he'll return to his role as the WR3 behind Mike Evans and rookie Jalen McMillan, giving him little fantasy upside. Despite another phenomenal season from quarterback Baker Mayfield and the season-ending injury to Chris Godwin (ankle), Shepard has failed to produce consistently for fantasy managers, catching a total of 31 passes on 49 targets for 323 yards and only one score. If he's active, consider him a low-upside, touchdown-dependent WR4/5 against the Saints.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (concussion) and safety Jabrill Peppers (hamstring) have both been ruled out for the Patriots defense for the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Buffalo Bills. Additionally, safety Kyle Dugger (ankle, quadriceps), linebacker Anfernee Jennings (knee), linebacker Titus Leo (ankle) and linebacker Sione Takitaki (knee) are questionable to play. The Patriots will secure the top overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft if they lose to the Bills on Sunday, so they won't be rushing any key players back onto the field this one. Even though the Bills don't plan to keep their key starters on offense in this contest for long, fantasy managers with something still on the line in Week 18 shouldn't have the Patriots defense/special teams unit as a consideration.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk (shoulder) did not practice at all this week and has been ruled out for the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday against the division-rival Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, fellow wideout Kayshon Boutte (illness) was cleared to play. The 22-year-old Polk will finish off what has been a bad rookie season early due to a shoulder injury. The second-round selection just never had much of a chance to excel in 2024 in a bad offense with rookie quarterback Drake Maye struggling to find his footing with limited weapons around him. Polk will finish his first year in the NFL with only 12 catches on 33 targets for 87 yards and two touchdowns in 15 games (seven starts). The Patriots will surely look to bring in upgraded receiving options this offseason, giving Polk and others even more competition.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (knee) returned to a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable to play in the Week 18 regular-season finale on Sunday at Lambeau Field against the division-rival Chicago Bears. Friday's practice session was the first Watson was able to attend since suffering a bruised left knee in the 34-0 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 16. "It was good, it really was," said head coach Matt LaFleur of Watson's return. "It was good to get him back out there, kind of get him back in the flow of things. So that was, that was encouraging." The 25-year-old's return to practice on Friday means he's making progress, but we still expect the Packers to play it safe and hold the oft-injured receiver out in the regular-season finale so that he'll be ready to go for the playoffs next week. It's unclear how long Green Bay might play their starters on Sunday, giving them all considerably more risk in fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (foot) was a limited participant in practice all week and is listed as questionable to play in the Week 18 regular-season finale against the division-rival Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Henry will enter the final week of the regular season as a shaky fantasy TE on the TE1/2 borderline. Aside from his injury, the Patriots and Bills have nothing on the line on Sunday besides draft positioning, so there's a chance that Henry doesn't see the field all that much if he's active. If he's ruled out on Sunday morning, Austin Hooper would be a TE sleeper in DFS lineups. Henry has been a low-ceiling, low-floor fantasy TE in 2024 in the low-scoring Patriots offense with rookie quarterback Drake Maye leading the show. He currently ranks as the TE19 in half-PPR points per game (5.0) with 66 catches for 674 yards and only two touchdowns in 16 games played.
From RotoBaller