Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 10
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson has been on a tear of late as he has gotten to at least 100 receiving yards in three of his past five games while notching four touchdowns over that span. Wilson will look to keep it going in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Cardinals have been a decent matchup for receivers as they are allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position thus far. The target share has really consolidated around Wilson and Davante Adams of late and that should continue to be the case in Week 10 with Mike Williams traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Allen Lazard (chest) on injured reserve. Treat Wilson as a top-six fantasy wideout this weekend.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (knee, hamstring) is coming off one of his best games of the season as he threw for three touchdowns in a win over the Houston Texans last week. Rodgers has a chance to stay hot against the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 10. The Cardinals represent a good matchup for Rodgers as they are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Rodgers settles in as a high-end QB2 in fantasy heading into Week 10.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Breece Hall ran for 74 yards in a win over the Houston Texans in Week 9. He will now look to break a two-game scoreless streak in Week 10's road matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have been generous to opposing running backs as they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position thus far. Hall has been the Jets' bell cow since they changed head coaches last month and should continue to dominate the backfield touches in a favorable matchup, making him a high-end RB1 in fantasy in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce hauled in three passes for 41 yards in Week 9 after totaling three catches for 36 yards over the prior three weeks. With fellow wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. set to miss this week's game, Pierce could see an uptick in targets. If the 6-foot-3 wideout can convert a target or two into receptions, it could be a big day for the speedy receiver. So far this year, Pierce has earned only 12.84% target share compared to Pittman's 22.18%, yet Pierce commands 26.97% of the team's air yards compared to Pittman's 24.91%. That is because most of Pierce's targets are deep shots, having a whopping 22.60 average depth of target (aDOT) compared to an aDOT of 12.08 for Pittman. Still, the Colts offense struggled last week even with a so-called upgrade at quarterback with Joe Flacco under center instead of Anthony Richardson, and it could have a difficult day against a decent Bills pass defense. If the Colts rely on the ground game, as the Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs, then the receivers may not stand to get much of boost in Pittman's absence. Pierce is still more of a boom/bust WR5 this week, with perhaps a better shot than recent weeks of catching a long one.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders (ankle, wrist) came off the injury report Friday and will play against the New York Giants in Week 10. Over the last month, Sanders has been the Panthers' most reliable target, averaging four receptions for 51 yards per game during that stretch. Unfortunately, the rookie has yet to find the end zone in his NFL career, which has hurt his production numbers, but that milestone should indeed be crossed soon. The Giants defend tight ends surprisingly well, ranking third in the league in points allowed against the position. With tight end Tommy Tremble (back) questionable, Sanders should see the majority of snaps once again. He is ranked as TE21 by RotoBaller for this matchup.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro has been in fantasy purgatory for most of his 2024 campaign amid immense struggles for Carolina's offense. The team has flip-flopped quarterbacks, traded away receivers, and consistently failed to put him in a position to kick the ball. They did, however, show some improvement in Week 9 as Pineiro made a 48-yarder to go along with two extra points. He should still be wholly avoided for fantasy purposes, but there are definite signs of life for the placekicker in Carolina.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is coming off his best performance of the season against the New Orleans Saints in Week 9. Young finished that game with 171 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a 61% completion rate. He also orchestrated a game-winning drive to secure Carolina's second win of the season. In Week 10, he'll travel to Germany to face a feeble New York Giants team who've lost four straight. Young has utilized some emerging targets in the Panthers' offense, such as tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders and wide receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker. Still, as a QB fighting for his starting job every week, the second-year quarterback remains a low-end QB2 this week.
From RotoBaller
Earlier this week, running back Chuba Hubbard agreed to a four-year, $33.2 million contract extension with the Carolina Panthers. Hubbard will look to keep things rolling against the New York Giants on Sunday. Hubbard has been one of the few bright spots for Carolina, ranking as RB7 in half-PPR scoring entering Week 10. He has absorbed all backfield work from running back Miles Sanders, who sees fewer and fewer touches. While rookie running back Jonathon Brooks (knee) is questionable for this German matchup against the Giants, there is no reason to expect a lighter workload for Hubbard, who sealed the team's Week 9 victory with a 16-yard touchdown run. He should be a safe RB2 in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette has scored a touchdown in two straight weeks, both coming in red zone targets. The Panthers rookie wideout will look to find the end zone again in the Germany game against the New York Giants. All four of Legette's scores this season have been from inside the 20-yard line, as his 6-foot-2, 227-pound frame has become his greatest advantage. While his down-to-down consistency still leaves more to be desired, Legette did hang on for a crucial 26-yard completion over the middle in the Panthers' game-winning drive in Week 9. Facing an unimpressive New York Giants defense in Week 10, he should have opportunities to build on his chemistry with quarterback Bryce Young. Still, a WR3 for now, the rookie from South Carolina relies on scores for production.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers undrafted rookie wide receiver Jalen Coker will start in the team's Week 10 matchup against the New York Giants in Munich, Germany. Coker has been the surprise of the season for Carolina, with 14 catches for 222 yards and a touchdown over his last six games. With wide receiver Jonathan Mingo traded to Dallas earlier this week, that could be a signal that Carolina brass believe in the kid from Holy Cross and want to see him with more snaps. In the last two weeks, Coker has combined for six receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. While not a steady starting option, he could be a streaming player in deep-leagues against the Giants in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is a bit of a speculative play in Week 10 as he faces the New England Patriots. With the Bears' backfield set, Johnson is a potential dart throw for fantasy managers in deeper leagues or those looking for a sleeper. The Patriots' defense has struggled against the run this season, ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense, which presents a favorable matchup for Johnson. However, Johnson's role remains uncertain, with the Bears still trying to find their offensive rhythm. Until the Bears can stabilize their offensive game plan, Johnson remains more of a stash or desperation flex option rather than a reliable start. If you require a high-risk, high-reward play, Johnson's matchup could provide some upside, but proceed cautiously.
From RotoBaller
This week, Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a risky WR3 option in fantasy football. After a disappointing performance in Week 9 against the Arizona Cardinals, where Moore managed just four catches for 33 yards and appeared frustrated with his offense, he's looking to bounce back. The good news is that the Patriots' defense presents an opportunity for Moore to get back on track. New England ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense, which should give Moore room to produce. However, there is some concern over Moore's potential one-on-one matchup with Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, a talented rookie who has been solid in coverage. While Moore's upside is evident, his inconsistency and the challenging matchup against Gonzalez make him a risky play this week. If you're rolling with him, be prepared for a volatile performance, but the opportunity is for a bounce-back.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen hopes to bounce back in Week 10 as he faces off against a challenging New England Patriots secondary. After a frustrating outing in Week 9 against the Arizona Cardinalswhere Allen saw ten targets but only hauled in 4 catches for 36 yardshe's eager to regain his rhythm. Despite leading the team in targets, Allen struggled to make an impact, and he'll be looking to turn things around in a more favorable matchup this week. The Patriots' defense, while solid, ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense, providing Allen with a solid opportunity to produce. However, his role in the offense is unclear, so his fantasy upside is risky. Still, if you're banking on a bounce-back, Allen could be a WR3/WR4 with some potential this week.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze has the potential for a breakout performance this Sunday as he faces a vulnerable New England Patriots secondary. Last week, Odunze emerged as the lone bright spot in a disappointing offensive showing for the Bears, leading the team with 104 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. His strong outing proved he can be a reliable target in a struggling offense. This week, Odunze will face a Patriots defense that ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense, giving him an excellent chance to continue his hot streak. With his ability to stretch the field and make big plays, Odunze could be in for another strong performance, especially if the Bears look to exploit the Patriots' weaknesses in the passing game. For fantasy managers needing a WR3 or flex option, Odunze could be a sleeper with solid upside in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a risky starter in fantasy this week, given his limited usage and a mediocre matchup against the New England Patriots secondary. In Week 9, Kmet struggled to make an impact, finishing with no receptions in a disappointing performance against the Arizona Cardinals. With the Bears' offense still trying to find consistency, Kmet's role in the passing game has been a concern. However, he does have an opportunity to bounce back this week against a Patriots defense that ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense. While the Patriots' defense is generally solid, their vulnerability in coverage could open up chances for Kmet to get back on track. For fantasy managers, Kmet offers some upside, but with his recent lack of involvement, he remains a boom-or-bust option. If you're desperate for a tight end in Week 10, Kmet's matchup gives him a chance to produce, but proceed cautiously.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a solid yet somewhat unexciting fantasy option for Week 10 as he prepares to face the New England Patriots. In his last outing, Santos had a productive game, converting all three field goal attempts, including makes from 29, 53, and 53 yards. While the Bears' offense has been inconsistent, Santos' accuracy has been reliable, and the Patriots' defense, ranked 21st in points allowed this season, gives him a decent chance to put up points. With a potential for more field goal attempts and extra points in a matchup where the Bears may struggle to punch the ball into the end zone consistently, Santos could provide some solid fantasy production. He may not offer the excitement of a high-scoring game, but if you're looking for a steady kicker option, Santos is a startable choice for Week 10.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams presents a risky yet intriguing fantasy option as he faces the New England Patriots. After a disappointing performance in Week 9 against the Arizona Cardinals, where Williams completed 22 of 41 passes for 217 yards with no touchdowns, he's eager to bounce back and prove his potential. The Patriots' defense offers an opportunity for redemption, as they rank 22nd in the league for passing yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense. While Williams has shown flashes of promise, his inconsistency makes him a boom-or-bust play in fantasy this week. Still, with the Patriots struggling against the pass, Williams could thrive if he finds his rhythm. For fantasy managers looking for upside, he could be a high-risk, high-reward option in Week 10, especially if you're in need of a quarterback to take a gamble on.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift is primed to be a strong RB2 option in fantasy this Sunday as the Bears take on the New England Patriots. After a solid performance in Week 9, where Swift rushed for 51 yards on 16 carries and added six receptions for 31 yards, he should be in line for another productive outing. The Patriots' defense has struggled against the run this season, ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense. This sets up an excellent opportunity for Swift to take advantage of a vulnerable defense and produce solid fantasy numbers. With his involvement in both the running and passing game, Swift offers a high floor and plenty of upside for fantasy managers. If you're looking for reliable production from your RB2 slot, Swift should be in your lineup for Week 10.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints "tight end" Taysom Hill had his most productive game of the season against the Panthers in Week 9. In the loss, he turned in season highs in receptions (four) and receiving yards (41), had five carries for 19 yards, and scored a touchdown, his third this year. The uptick in usage resulted from the Saints' wide receiver and running back depth charts stretched thin due to injuries. The same challenge is present in Week 10, with Chris Olave (concussion) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (shoulder) declared out and running back Jamaal Williams (groin) questionable. Hill should factor in once again as the Saints cannot run their entire offense through Alvin Kamara alone. Tight end streamers or managers feeling the pinch of a bye week can plug Hill in as the circumstances around him give him top-12 potential.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson tied for the second most receiving yards on the team in Week 9 against the Panthers. Sadly, all he needed for that distinction was 41 yards. On the season, Johnson now has 20 receptions for 225 yards with one touchdown. In Week 10, Johnson and the Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South rivalry game. The matchup offers no special advantage to Johnson. Atlanta has seen only two touchdowns go to opposing tight ends this season and lands in the middle of the pack in terms of receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. With the Saints' offense decimated by injuries, Johnson may be in line for an uptick in work but the same could have been said about his situation in Week 9 and nothing substantial came to fruition. He can be left on the wire in Week 10.
From RotoBaller