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FFL: Week 1 | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Emanuel Wilson Sep 5 5:20pm ET
Emanuel Wilson

The Green Bay Packers have listed running backs MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) and Emanuel Wilson (hip), along with tight end Tucker Kraft (back), as questionable for Friday night's game against the Eagles. Lloyd has been managing a hamstring injury throughout the summer, while Wilson and Kraft's injuries are more recent, with both being full participants as recently as Tuesday's practice. Lloyd, a non-participant on Tuesday, returned as a limited participant for Thursday's walkthrough. Both positions are now major concerns for the team. Running backs AJ Dillon and tight end Tyler Davis were placed on season-ending injured reserve during roster cuts. With Lloyd and Wilson injured, the only healthy running back on the 53-man roster is free-agent signing Josh Jacobs, who has yet to see action for the Packers. The tight end position is also thin; if Kraft is unavailable, the team will have only Luke Musgrave and Ben Sims left at the position. If Lloyd and Kraft cannot play, the roles of Jacobs and Musgrave would significantly increase.

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Ladd McConkey Sep 5 5:20pm ET
Ladd McConkey

Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is set to start in the slot in a Week 1 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. McConkey didn't play much in the preseason but is expected to play a significant role in the passing game this season. He's behind Joshua Palmer on the depth chart for sure, but could realistically be the second option for quarterback Justin Herbert on passing plays. McConkey will face a Raiders secondary that was in the upper half of rankings against slot receivers last season. His college numbers put him in the 98th percentile in receiving against single coverage though, so it could be a pleasant welcome to the NFL for the Chargers second-round pick.

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Josh Palmer Sep 5 5:00pm ET
Josh Palmer

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer is set to start as the likely primary pass catcher in a Week 1 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Palmer did well last season after Mike Williams got hurt, putting up an average of 71 receiving yards per game in those contests. He's the only returning pass catcher besides Quentin Johnston, who may not even be in the starting lineup. Palmer's rapport with quarterback Justin Herbert and his spot on the depth chart gives him plenty of upside on a team whose offense should be very much improved. He's a solid WR3/flex play for the first week of the season with room to grow.

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Bryce Young Sep 5 5:00pm ET
Bryce Young

On the initial Week 1 injury report for the New Orleans Saints, cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hip) was listed as limited due to a persistent hip issue. However, he was upgraded to a full participant in Thursday's practice. Lattimore's 2023 season was plagued by injuries, including an ankle problem that kept him to just ten games and a kidney laceration that limited him to seven games the year before. These health issues sparked trade rumors during the offseason, but the Saints decided to keep him. Lattimore is set to start on Sunday, providing a significant boost to the Saints' defense against a Carolina Panthers offense that is expected to have difficulties. His presence will be a considerable challenge for Bryce Young and the Panthers' receiving corps.

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CeeDee Lamb Sep 5 4:50pm ET
CeeDee Lamb

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is all set to go for a Week 1 game against the Cleveland Browns. Lamb missed the preseason while holding out for his newly signed contract, but he was reportedly still working out and staying in game shape, so he's ready to go for the season opener on Sunday. Lamb was a top pick in essentially every league and is completely matchup proof regardless of the tough Browns secondary. While he'll be ranked as the overall WR1 most weeks, there may be a couple of guys ahead of him this week just because of the tiniest slice of uncertainty.

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Keenan Allen Sep 5 4:50pm ET
Keenan Allen

Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (heel) was limited in practice for the second consecutive day with a heel injury on Thursday afternoon. The veteran wideout also missed a practice due to the same injury last week. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor Allen's status as we approach the season opener on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. The 32-year-old is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, totaling 1,243 yards on 108 receptions with seven scores. If Allen were to miss Sunday's game or suit up in a limited capacity, DJ Moore should see an uptick in targets, and rookie pass catcher Rome Odunze should also see more playing opportunities.

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Brandin Cooks Sep 5 4:50pm ET
Brandin Cooks

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks isn't a great option in Week 1 fantasy lineups. The Cowboys offense will once again run through CeeDee Lamb and the running game, with Cooks playing more of a support role on the field. Last season, Cooks ended up as the WR43. All of that, combined with a strong Cleveland Browns secondary, makes Cooks an easy pass in starting lineups for the first week of the season.

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Noah Gray Sep 5 4:40pm ET
Noah Gray

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Noah Gray signed a three-year extension with the Kansas City Chiefs just hours prior to their season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. Gray has spent his entire NFL career in Kansas City, totaling 640 receiving yards and four scores on 63 catches over the past three campaigns. Last season, he saw a career-high 305 yards and two scores. The 25-year-old will now call Kansas City home for the foreseeable future. Fantasy managers should leave Gray on the waiver wire for now, as Travis Kelce will continue to see the vast majority of targets at the tight end position. However, if Kelce were to miss an extended period, Gray could carve out a decent role for fantasy purposes.

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Trevor Lawrence Sep 5 4:40pm ET
Trevor Lawrence

The Miami Dolphins will square up against the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. It will be the home opener for the Fins and the first under new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver. After their defense was decimated by injuries in 2023, Miami prioritized bulking up that side of the ball in the offseason. Their key acquisitions are strong veteran presences in cornerback Kendall Fuller, linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Shaquil Barrett, and safety Jordan Poyer. In addition to returning studs Jalen Ramsey, Jevon Holland, and Calais Campbell, Miami now presents a strong core of talented veteran players. It's hard to know what to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags' offense to open the year, but if the Dolphins' offense can get out to an early lead, it would bode well for the defense's outlook. They're currently RotoBaller's DEF22 heading into Week 1, with much more season-long upside if this unit gels quickly.

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Gus Edwards Sep 5 4:30pm ET
Gus Edwards

Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards is expected to be the early-down lead back on the Chargers new offense this season. A Week 1 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders isn't the softest introduction, but Edwards should still be the guy handed the ball on any short down situations. He likely won't be part of the passing game and isn't the most explosive open field runner, so he's the kind of guy who needs to score in real life to put up a strong fantasy score. He was fourth in touchdowns among running backs last season but ended up as just the overall RB32.

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Jason Sanders Sep 5 4:30pm ET
Jason Sanders

Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is a top option heading into the Dolphins' home opening tilt against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sanders is near-automatic from under 40 yards in his career, connecting on 95% of his kicks (79-of-83). He gets a bit sketchier from there on out and is a combined 71-of-97 from 40+. However, the seventh-year kicker is reliable in the extra-point department, nailing 233-of-240 career attempts. Miami has an implied point total of 26 points heading into Week 1, and there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Dolphins squaring off against a Jaguars team that struggled against the pass in 2023. Fire up Sanders with confidence, as he is RotoBaller's K7 in this week's rankings.

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J.K. Dobbins Sep 5 4:30pm ET
J.K. Dobbins

Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins is set to make his Chargers debut in the backfield in a Week 1 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Dobbins will be paired with Gus Edwards, and while Edwards will do a lot of the running, Dobbins will be the one in for most of the passing game work. He's been an injury risk for essentially his entire career, but the upside certainly exists, especially in the offensive scheme he'll be playing in. He's a guy worth stashing on the bench to see how he fits with Justin Herbert and the rest of the Bolts, but probably not a guy you're comfortable starting in Week 1.

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Chase McLaughlin Sep 5 4:30pm ET
Chase McLaughlin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin (abdomen) was upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday, according to Brianna Dix. McLaughlin missed practice on Wednesday due to an abdomen injury and an illness. However, seeing him return to full participation the following day is a great sign for his status in the season opener on Sunday afternoon. The 28-year-old enjoyed a great season in Tampa Bay last fall, hitting 93.5% of his attempts and a stellar 7-for-8 from outside 50 yards. DFS players should consider placing McLaughlin in their lineup as he will face the Washington Commanders, who surrendered the most total yards in the league last season.

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A.T. Perry Sep 5 4:20pm ET
A.T. Perry

The New Orleans Saints have added wide receiver A.T. Perry (hand) to their injury report. This injury is concerning, given the critical role of hand health for a wide receiver. Perry had a standout preseason, leading the NFL with 176 receiving yards and positioning himself as a potential key contributor to New Orleans' offense in 2024. Currently listed as the third wide receiver on the Saints' depth chart behind Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Perry demonstrated his red-zone capability by scoring 33% of his receptions last season, with four touchdowns on just 12 catches. Standing at 6'5", his exceptional body control makes him a valuable red-zone threat, especially on a roster with smaller receivers like Olave and Shaheed. If Perry cannot play, expect increased opportunities for Olave and Alvin Kamara in the passing game.

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Kyle Pitts Sep 5 4:20pm ET
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Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (hamstring) participated in full in Thursday's practice, according to Josh Kendall of The Athletic. Pitts was a limited participant in the team's first official practice on Wednesday. However, seeing that he was a full-go on Thursday is an excellent sign for his status entering the season opener on Sunday afternoon. Fantasy managers should continue to follow any updates regarding Pitts, but he should be expected to suit up over the weekend. The Florida product hopes to enjoy a nice bounce-back campaign, as he has yet to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark since his debut season, and with his new quarterback Kirk Cousins, he could be in a great position to do so. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable starting Pitts this weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Keenan Allen Sep 5 4:20pm ET
Keenan Allen

Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is eager to make his mark in Chicago and set new records. After he was told that his performance from 2019-2023 alone would have made him the all-time leading receiver in Bears history, saying, "Sky's the limit. We can definitely reset the bar here for sure. I'm pretty sure we will." While there is considerable excitement about the Bears' offense this year, Allen faces challenges that could affect his fantasy value. Joining a new team with a crowded receiving corps and a rookie quarterback might limit his numbers in 2024, potentially positioning him as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in PPR leagues. With Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore also in the mix, it's unlikely he'll maintain his previous 31% target share. Despite the optimism surrounding the Bears' offense, predicting the primary target each week could be tricky. Allen and the Bears aim for a strong start as they face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

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Rico Dowdle Sep 5 4:10pm ET
Rico Dowdle

Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle may be the best running back on the Cowboys roster, but he's still a very risky play in fantasy lineups in Week 1. While Dowdle could and likely will end up being the top fantasy running back in Dallas by the end of the season, it may take a few weeks for him to build up steam and work his way into a full starting role. With veterans Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook in the way for now, Dowdle will be little more than a flex play with slight upside against the Browns in Week 1.

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Jonnu Smith Sep 5 4:10pm ET
Jonnu Smith

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith will square up against the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday in the Dolphins' home opener. It's Smith's first season in Miami after a one-year stint in Atlanta, and while he's never been the focal point of an offense, he has proven to be an average to above-average NFL TE. 2023 was his most productive season, setting career-highs in receptions (50) and yards (582) while playing alongside Kyle Pitts. It remains to be seen what his usage will be in his new offense, though the Dolphins used their tight ends extensively in the preseason, and he's one of the more athletic ones in the league. Additionally, with River Cracraft and Odell Beckham Jr. to miss the first four games of the season on the PUP, Smith could be used more often in the early going. If he performs well, he might develop a role in the offense. The eighth-year veteran is RotoBaller's TE22 in Week 1 rankings and is currently a fitter option in two TE or DFS leagues.

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Dak Prescott Sep 5 4:00pm ET
Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott faces a tough matchup in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns. Prescott was excellent last season, finishing as the overall fantasy QB4 for the season and the overall QB1 in fantasy points per game from Week 6 on. With a similar supporting cast of pass catchers this year, Prescott should once again be a solid fantasy contributor, although Week 1 will be one of his toughest challenges, as the Browns secondary allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks last season. Dak remains a QB1 option, but he's on the lower end of that ranking for this week.

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Jaylen Waddle Sep 5 4:00pm ET
Jaylen Waddle

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (undisclosed) is ready to roll against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the team's home opener. The former sixth-overall pick has a fantastic matchup in Week 1, as he'll square off against a Jags' defense that allowed 4,076 yards and 27 scores through the air a season ago -- both seventh-most in the league. Waddle wore a non-contact jersey for the last week of training camp, but both he and teammate Tyreek Hill (thumb) returned to full practice earlier this week. The Alabama product regressed a bit in the yards category last season compared to 2022, while Hill performed at an other-worldly level. However, the fourth-year wideout still garnered a solid 23.6% target share and robust 2.52 yards per route run last season and is again the unquestioned second option in Miami's passing attack. Waddle is RotoBaller's PPR WR19 in Week 1 rankings and is always a threat to have a huge game -- particularly against a Jacksonville unit that did nothing too extensive to improve their defensive backfield.

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