Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Houston Texans wide receiver John Metchie III (shoulder) appears ready to return to the lineup on Christmas Day against the Baltimore Ravens, and with ample opportunity within the Texans' offense. Wide receiver Tank Dell (knee) joined Stefon Diggs (knee) on injured reserve, opening the way for other receivers behind top target Nico Collins. However, starting Metchie, even against a Ravens defense in the bottom five against fantasy receivers, is a massive risk for managers in fantasy Super Bowls this week. In addition to rostering receiver Robert Woods, Houston added Diontae Johnson off waivers on Monday. Replacing Dell might be a committee approach.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Van Jefferson is off the fantasy radar when the Steelers take on Kansas City on Christmas Day. The veteran has played more than 70% of the Steelers' snaps the past three weeks, but that seems likely to change with top receiver George Pickens (hamstring) likely to return to the lineup. The Chiefs' defense ranks in the middle of the pack against fantasy receivers, but it's difficult to see Jefferson getting enough action in a run-loving Pittsburgh offense when competing for targets with Pickens, receiver Calvin Austin III, and tight end Pat Freiermuth.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets signed kicker Greg Joseph to their practice squad, according to Joseph's agent, Brett Tessler. The veteran is now on his fifth team of the season after spending training camp with Green Bay, briefly signing with Detroit's practice squad, and then having stints with the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. Jets kicker Anders Carlson had a brutal showing on Sunday against the L.A. Rams, missing an extra point and a 49-yarder that would have cut the lead to one score in the fourth quarter. Joseph is unlikely to hold any fantasy value, however, even if he unseats Carlson for the starting job prior to a Week 17 game at Buffalo.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints receiver Kevin Austin Jr. earned another four targets Monday at Green Bay, but turned them into just one catch for 17 yards on which he fumbled, but saw the ball go out of bounds. The third-year player has drawn at least three targets in four straight games, but is playing more mostly due to injuries, including to top receiver Chris Olave (concussion). New Orleans, playing behind backup quarterback Spencer Rattler, looked hapless in the 34-0 defeat to the Packers and became the first team in the league to be shut out this year. Austin is off the fantasy radar prior to a Week 17 game against Las Vegas.
From RotoBaller
Dante Pettis of the New Orleans Saints earned seven targets on Monday at Green Bay, but finished with only two catches for 31 yards. The barren New Orleans offense was down to starting quarterback Spencer Rattler, who completed only half of his 30 passing attempts for 153 yards and an interception in a blowout 34-0 defeat. The Saints have ample opportunity for Pettis to play a high volume of snaps, but they have so few weapons at this stage of the season that starting anyone on this offense is likely a no-go. New Orleans will continue playing out the string in Week 17 against Las Vegas.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams was a non-factor with just three carries for eight yards and no targets in a 34-0 defeat at Green Bay. The veteran drew fewer carries than fellow running backs Kendre Miller and Jordan Mims, and backup quarterback Spencer Rattler carried five times as the depleted Saints offense struggled to muster anything in a forgettable outing. Even without starting running Alvin Kamara (groin), Williams was not fantasy relevant. The former 1,000-yard rusher can safely be left on waivers as the Saints prepare for Las Vegas in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers kicker Brandon McManus converted every opportunity on Monday in a 34-0 win against the New Orleans Saints, connecting on both field goals and all four extra points. The veteran kicker hit field goals of 55 and 46 yards in the second half, adding a boost for managers who started him in the fantasy playoffs. McManus, who was released by Washington earlier this year after a lawsuit alleging sexual assault was brought against him, has latched on in Green Bay during the second half of the season. He'll continue being attached to a capable offense as the playoff-bound Packers take on Minnesota in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler went 15-for-30 for 153 passing yards and added 28 yards on five rushes in Monday's 34-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Rattler also threw an interception and lost a fumble in the defeat, which had the dubious distinction of being the NFL's first shutout of the 2024 season. Additionally, the Saints never reached the red zone and the drives that brought them the closest were halted by Rattler's turnovers. Through four starts and five total appearances, the rookie has gone 84-for-150 for 859 passing yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. In postgame comments, interim head coach Darren Rizzi said that the team would evaluate Derek Carr's (hand) progress on Thursday. With the Saints officially out of the playoff hunt it isn't out of the question for Rattler to remain the starter in order to gain more experience at the pro level. Even if New Orleans gives him another chance, he doesn't belong on fantasy rosters in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Those hoping that New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller would be the late-season add that would propel fantasy teams to the championship round of the fantasy playoffs were sorely disappointed on Monday night. Miller handled eight carriers and gained just 15 rushing yards in the 35-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers. He also caught both of his targets for 16 receiving yards. After taking over the Saints' backfield following Alvin Kamara's (groin) early departure last week, Miller finished with fewer snaps than fellow backup Jordan Mims. In postgame comments, interim head coach Darren Rizzi alluded to having a plan to use Miller that went out the window after falling in an early hole which forced New Orleans into playing catchup. Kamara's status for Week 17 is unknown at this point but if he misses another game then Miller should have an easier time against the Las Vegas Raiders.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back was the unexpected leader in targets and receptions in Monday's 35-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Mims caught five of his eight targets but finished with a meager 16 receiving yards. Mims also had four carries for 16 rushing yards, second only to the 28 yards that quarterback Spencer Rattler scrambled for. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi credited the surprising usage of Mims to the fact that the team had to shift into "two-minute mode" after falling into an early hole. Mims finished with 25 offensive snaps to 21 for Kendre Miller who was expected to be the team's featured back with Alvin Kamara (groin) shelved. Before Monday's game, Mims had been inactive for four straight games leading back to the Saints' Week 12 bye. In his very limited role this season he now has 58 rushing yards on 18 carries and another 58 on nine receptions.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Foster Moreau was the team's unlikely leader in receiving yards in their game against the Green Bay Packers on Monday night. If that isn't a strong enough indicator of how the Saints' offense fared, the fact that he needed just 33 yards to lead the team should make it a little more clear. Moreau caught two of his three passes for those 33 yards in a 35-0 loss in which New Orleans was held to less than 200 yards on offense. He also logged the Saints' longest play from scrimmage in the game when he caught a 21-yard pass from rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler in the second quarter. Primarily used as a blocker, Moreau now has a line of 25-335-4 for the season. In Week 17, Moreau can be ignored for fantasy purposes, even in a supposed "revenge game" against his former team, the Las Vegas Raiders.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet has failed to prove himself as a dependable option within the team's offense. As a result, he ranks outside the top 18 tight ends and should be benched in most fantasy leagues ahead of Week 17 against the Seattle Seahawks. Although Kmet did catch a touchdown last week, he has just three receptions for 23 yards over his last three games. The 25-year-old ranks 14th among fantasy tight ends in 2024, but most of his production has come from outlier games. Through 15 contests, he has posted double-digit fantasy points (PPR) just thrice. Fantasy managers can justify benching or even dropping the 25-year-old as fantasy championships arrive and Kmet remains a non-factor.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson should be avoided in all fantasy leagues ahead of Thursday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. While Johnson did vulture numerous touchdowns from D'Andre Swift earlier in the year, that hasn't happened as much lately due to his reduced snap counts, as well as the fact that he missed multiple weeks due to a concussion. In fact, while the 23-year-old scored six touchdowns over eight games from Week 4 through Week 12, he has not found the end zone since then. He mustered just one carry against the Detroit Lions last week and should not be viewed as a legitimate fantasy option as long as Swift stays healthy.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore continues to impress with his large target share, and he should remain a must-start fantasy option heading into Thursday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. Moore has been one of Caleb Williams' favorite targets, averaging 7.2 catches per game over the last six weeks. He has scored double-digit fantasy points (PPR) in each of those six games, ranking as the overall WR12 in fantasy football during that window. While he loses a significant amount of his touchdown opportunities to Keenan Allen, Moore has shown that he can sustain high-end WR2 production even if he's not finding the end zone on a routine basis. This week, Moore continues to rank as a fringe top-12 fantasy receiver against the Seahawks, who have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns and 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze remains a volume-dependent fantasy option heading into Thursday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. Odunze has commanded solid target shares lately, but he has caught more than four passes in just two of his last seven games. Furthermore, he has just three touchdowns through 15 games this season, losing key opportunities to DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. All in all, the rookie pass-catcher should be viewed as a low-end WR3/FLEX option. Seattle ranks near the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but on a positive note, they've surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns to the position.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed was a sizable part of the Packers' 34-0 rout over the New Orleans Saints in Week 16. Reed caught 3-of-4 targets for 76 yards on the evening, including a 37-yard strike early in the fourth quarter and then a 34-yard catch that boosted Reed's night later in the fourth quarter from backup quarterback Malik Willis. Also adding a rushing attempt for five-yard rush, Reed was a big factor for the Packers, but ultimately, the huge lead curbed a lot of the passing work in the second half. With the Packers heading to Minnesota for a divisional showdown against the Vikings in Week 17, Reed is a low-end flex option for fantasy managers due to his boom-or-bust nature over the second half of the season.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift has not been a dependable fantasy option lately, struggling to rack up points as he deals with reduced volume, efficiency, and scoring opportunities. The veteran running back mustered just 22 rushing yards on nine carries against the Detroit Lions last week, and he hasn't finished with double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues since Week 11. In fact, over his last five games, Swift ranks 30th among running backs in total points and 40th in average points per contest. These numbers suggest that he should be benched in most leagues, but the reality is that he checks in closer to the RB3/FLEX range. When Swift gets the perfect storm of high volume, pass-catching usage, and scoring opportunities, he can be one of the best running backs in fantasy football. However, that trifecta has been hard to come by in Chicago's offense, leading to some frustration for his fantasy managers. He'll have a chance to get back on track this Thursday night against the Seahawks, who have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards, 10th-most receiving yards, and 16th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. He's a solid RB3/FLEX option as the fantasy playoffs continue in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell is the top fantasy scorer at his position this season and will look to finish the fantasy campaign on a high note against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. Pittsburgh's top wide receiver, George Pickens (hamstring), is expected to return from a three-week absence on Wednesday, which should only benefit the offense and improve Boswell's chances of seeing the field. While the Chiefs have been stout defensively and have limited opposing kickers to the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game, Boswell has been far too consistent to bench in favor of a streaming candidate. Fantasy managers should continue to roll with Boswell as a high-end option this week.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs was a background player in the Packers' 34-0 rout over the New Orleans Saints in Week 16. After coming off a two-touchdown game against the Seattle Seahawks in his return from two games missed while on concussion protocol, Doubs blended into the background as the run game was the star of the Packers' win. Doubs caught 2-of-3 targets for 20 yards in the victory as 10 different Packers earned a target, and the blowout nature led Green Bay to run the ball to salt away the victory. With the Packers headed to Minnesota to face the Vikings in a divisional showdown in Week 17, Doubs is a desperation flex option for fantasy managers with a low floor and capped ceiling.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen has been a touchdown machine lately, and he has a good chance to return to the end zone during Thursday night's contest against the Seattle Seahawks. Allen has five touchdowns over his last five games, ranking as the overall WR6 in PPR leagues during that span. He has just 3.2 fewer fantasy points than Ja'Marr Chase during that window, and he ranks ahead of stars like Mike Evans, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, A.J. Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. While most of Allen's productivity can be attributed to his sudden spurt of touchdowns, we can't ignore that he has been a high-volume option for Caleb Williams, racking up nine receptions and 141 yards against the Detroit Lions in Week 16. As it stands, Allen may be the most dependable fantasy option in Chicago. He should continue to be deployed as a mid-to-low WR2 option for Week 17, especially as he faces a Seahawks defense allowing the fourth-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in 2024.
From RotoBaller