Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 11
A week after he exploded with a 3-109-2 line, Marquez Valdes-Scantling took another catch to the house in the Saints' 35-14 win over the Browns. Similar to his Week 10 performance, MVS was seldom targeted but made the most of his opportunities. On four targets he caught two balls for 87 yards and a touchdown, the score being a 71-yard catch and run in the second quarter. With few other options for quarterback Derek Carr to throw to, Valdes-Scantling seems to have cemented his role as the team's go-to playmaker at wide receiver. Rashid Shaheed (knee) is out for the year so even if Chris Olave (concussion) is activated before the end of the season, MVS may still be featured as the deep threat for New Orleans. After their Week 12 bye, the Saints will face the Rams followed by the Giants who rank 29th and dead last, respectively, in completion rate allowed on deep throws.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson caught all three of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-14 victory over the Browns. The score came from one yard out and was Johnson's first trip to the end zone since Week 1 and was just the second touchdown against the Browns by an opposing tight end this season. Johnson also impressed with an acrobatic catch for a 20-yard gain in the second quarter, turning and jumping for the pass and reeling it in while twisting around mid-air. On the downside, he was responsible for a holding penalty in the first quarter that negated a 29-yard pickup on a 4th-and-1 that would have brought the Saints to Cleveland's four-yard line. Despite the injuries that have wrecked the Saints' wide receiver room, Johnson has not seen a significant uptick in production. Through 11 games, he now has 25 receptions for 277 yards with two touchdowns on 32 targets. The Saints are on bye in Week 12, then return to face the Rams where Johnson will once again be a touchdown-dependent dart throw.
From RotoBaller
The Taysom Hill boom game we were all waiting for finally happened in Week 11. Hill had A career-high 138 rushing yards with three touchdowns on seven carries and led the Saints in receptions and targets, bringing in eight of his ten looks for 50 yards. He fulfilled the rest of his utility role with an 18-yard completion and a 42-yard kickoff return. His work in New Orleans' 35-14 win over the Browns equated to a whopping 42.52 PPR points. Hill threw an interception on his only other pass attempt in the game and lost a fumble but the turnovers did not deter the Saints from turning away from their jack of all trades. Since his Week 8 return from a multi-week absence due to injury, Hill is averaging 8.3 touches per game and has four touchdowns thanks to his performance against Cleveland. New Orleans is on bye in Week 12 but Hill will continue to be a factor thereafter.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts for 248 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-14 win over the Cleveland Browns. Carr's first touchdown pass was a 71-yard job to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who covered most of the ground after the catch as opposed to last week's deep shot through the air. Carr's other score went to Juwan Johnson from a yard out, giving the tight end his first trip to the end zone since Week 1. Carr looked great in the first half, with just two incompletions and a streak of 13 consecutive completed passes that stretched into the start of the third quarter. The performance marked just the second time this season that he eclipsed 20 completions in a game and he now has multiple touchdown passes in five of the eight games he has played. Carr's productivity since returning from his oblique injury is surprising, considering the losses the Saints have sustained to their receiving corps. He will be hard to trust as a QB1 but will be a candidate in formats that utilize two quarterbacks after New Orleans returns from their Week 12 bye.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara handled 16 carries for 67 yards and caught all four of his targets for 22 receiving yards in Sunday's 35-14 win over the Browns. Kamara found enough space to take his first handoff 13 yards and had an 18-yard gain on the ground in the fourth quarter but was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage seven times. It was the first time since Week 7 that he finished short of 100 scrimmage yards and it was his fifth straight week without a touchdown. The four targets were the fewest that Kamara has seen in a game since Week 3. His use in Week 11 was a surprising step back from the norm, considering how thin the Saints are on offense thanks to their recent spate of injuries. Kamara should return to being the focal point of New Orleans' attack after their Week 12 bye and has a favorable schedule for the fantasy playoffs including a matchup against the Raiders in the championship round.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer made two catches in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer was targeted four times, making the two grabs for a total of 23 yards. Palmer has made two or fewer catches for four games in a row and has scored just one touchdown so far. He's playing a fairly important role in the "real life" Chargers offense, but it hasn't translated into any kind of consistent fantasy value and that's unlikely to change. Palmer and the Chargers will play on Monday Night Football in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers was targeted 16 times in Week 11 against the Miami Dolphins, catching 13 of those passes for 126 yards and a touchdown. He was once again the lone bright spot in the team's loss, as no other offensive or defensive player on his team shined as bright as he did. It's becoming a common theme in his inaugural season, and it seems set to continue. As long as quarterback Gardner Minshew II starts, at least. But he's an elite player at his position already, and it seems that any QB that plays for this team would be well served in spamming the ball in his direction. He's an elite TE option in fantasy and should be started every week from now on, even in Week 11 against a tough Denver Broncos defense.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker had an excellent game in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dicker attempted two field goals and made them both and also added four extra points on his four tries. Dicker's first field goal came from 19 yards out at the end of the first half, and his second was a 53-yarder in the third quarter. He's remained consistent at one of fantasy football's least reliable positions, and should once again be a top-10 option next week against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson made both his field goals, attempts of 22 and 27 yards, and nailed his only extra point try in his team's loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 11. Though he didn't face too difficult of a test, at least he didn't miss any of his kicks, which is more than can be said for other kickers. Regardless, it wasn't a great week for him for fantasy football, and he continues to see very little volume, which he would need to be fantasy relevant. He'll face the Denver Broncos in Week 12, who have a defense that will likely limit the Raiders' scoring potential. Denver boasts an excellent defense that just aided the team in winning a 38-6 blasting over the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker still hasn't found the stride he had for a two-game stretch earlier in the season. He caught three of his four targets for 28 yards and ran the ball one time for seven yards. He hasn't been a big factor in the offense yet, and he's clearly taken a back seat to fellow WR Jakobi Meyers and tight end Brock Bowers. He'll likely stick in his role as third fiddle on this offense. Despite being a speedster, he simply hasn't been putting himself in position to make many impactful plays for Las Vegas. Week 12 won't present any easier opportunities for him to achieve this, as he'll face the rival Denver Broncos, who are coming off a blowout win against the Atlanta Falcons. Denver limited a much better offense to just six points in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly scored a touchdown in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dissly was targeted six times and made four catches for 80 yards. His touchdown came on a 29-yard pass from Justin Herbert near the end of the first quarter. Dissly has become much more heavily involved in the passing game lately, and he's quickly working his way into the lower-end TE1 conversation. He and the Bolts will take on the Baltimore Ravens next week on Monday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston scored another touchdown in Week 11, his sixth of the season. Johnston was targeted eight times but only came down with two catches, totaling 48 yards. His touchdown came on a 26-yard pass from Justin Herbert in the second quarter. Johnston has seen a lot of red zone and end zone targets this season and has really boosted his value by scoring touchdowns, but he hasn't been particularly efficient. Johnston has improved on the drop issues that plagued him in his rookie season, but he still has more work to do before he can consistently be relied upon as a WR2/3 option in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey had a big game in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. McConkey ended up leading the team in targets, catches, and yards, making six catches on nine targets for 123 yards. The rookie ended up missing a few plays after being forced to leave with a shoulder injury, but he was back on the field soon after. He made some huge catches at the end of the fourth quarter that helped lead the Chargers to score a game winning touchdown with just 18 seconds left in the game. McConkey has clearly gotten comfortable with quarterback Justin Herbert and is often the first read over the middle of the field. He should continue as a solid and reliable WR3 option most weeks.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers caught just four passes on six targets for 28 yards and rushed for an additional 28 yards, netting him 8.8 PPR points in fantasy football on the week as his team fell to the Miami Dolphins 19-34. It was a quieter day than usual for Meyers, and he had less than half the target volume of teammate tight end Brock Bowers. Meyers is the clear WR1 of this team, but he was handled effectively by Dolphins quarterback Jalen Ramsey and his fellow defensive backs. Things won't get any easier in Week 11, when Las Vegas has a date with the Denver Broncos -- cornerback Patrick Surtain II is elite and is licking his chops at a chance to lock down Meyers. He's a risky start next week, as are all WRs that face the Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Ameer Abdullah rushed just one time for one yard and caught three passes for sixteen yards, but one of those receptions went for a touchdown in his team's Week 11 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Teammate Alexander Mattison (ankle) was pulled from the game with an ankle injury, allowing Abdullah to earn some playing time. He capitalized by finding the end zone. It's not known whether Mattison will play in Week 11, but even if he doesn't, Abdullah may have to compete with Zamir White (quad). If neither can play, it's probably not worth starting him anyway, as he will fact a stiff Denver Broncos defense that just held Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to 63 total yards and 2.9 yards per carry.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins scored two touchdowns in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dobbins ran the ball 11 times, gaining 56 yards and scoring on the ground twice. He was only targeted once in the passing game and made the grab for a three-yard gain. Dobbins ran well in this one despite a usually strong Bengals run defense. His first touchdown was on a one-yard goal line plunge in the second quarter, and his second was a game-clincher in the fourth quarter that came on a 29-yard rush with 18 seconds left. Dobbins was once again in charge of this backfield despite only tallying 11 carries, as all other Chargers running backs combined for eight total carries. Dobbins will again be on the RB2 radar next week on Monday Night Football against the Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper (wrist) caught two passes for 55 yards in the team's 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Cooper returned to the lineup after missing the last two games with a wrist injury. Unfortunately, he didn't see a lot of opportunities. Josh Allen only targeted Cooper three times. Fortunately, there were no setbacks to his injury and he'll have extra time to further recover as Buffalo takes their bye week. The veteran will be a WR3 when the Bills host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew II completed 30 of his 43 pass attempts for 282 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in his Week 11 loss to the Miami Dolphins. He also carried the ball two times for seven yards. He was once again outmatched by the opposing quarterback, and wasn't able to lift his team to a victory, in what is becoming a common theme for the team. He actually started the game by leading drives of 61 and 66 yards, but both ended with field goals. His TDs twice brought the Raiders within five points of the opposition, but the offense fizzled, and he threw a pick to effectively seal the deal on his next drive. He's likely to be the starter again next week, but will be a risky option in fantasy -- Las Vegas will face the tough Denver Broncos defense, which just handled the Atlanta Falcons with ease.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards tallied just six carries in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Edwards ran it the six times for a total of 27 yards with a long run of nine yards. He was not targeted in the passing game. Edwards settled in behind starter J.K. Dobbins in a role that he'll likely fill for the rest of the season as long as everyone remains healthy. Edwards does not have much standalone value, but he could be an immediate fantasy starter if Dobbins were ever forced to miss any time.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught eight of 12 targets for 70 yards in the team's 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. The slot receiver led the Bills in targets, receptions, and yards. However, he did not find the endzone. Buffalo's lone passing touchdown went in Curtis Samuel's direction. Shakir hasn't scored since Week 3. Still, he's been Allen's go-to receiver this season and will be in the WR2/3 range when Buffalo returns from their bye week.
From RotoBaller