Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins led the team in receiving, drawing a team-high eight targets and turning them into six catches for a team-best 117 yards in the Texans' 29-27 victory at Indianapolis in Week 1. Though fellow receiver Stefon Diggs caught both of quarterback C.J. Stroud's touchdown passes, Collins was the only Houston pass catcher to surpass 40 yards receiving. The fourth-year pro was a consistent factor at all three levels of the field, and his acrobatic, 55-yard catch in double coverage set up Houston's first touchdown. The season debut bodes well for fantasy managers who selected Collins with the hope that he could be the top dog in Houston's crowded receiver room. He'll look to build on the performance when the Texans take on Chicago in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert led the Chargers to a Week 1 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert attempted 26 passes, completing 17 of them for 144 yards and a touchdown. He took one sack and added six yards on the ground on four carries. It was an efficient game for Herbert, who saw the Chargers running game and defense thrive while he didn't have to do too much. He did miss some throws and looked like he was maybe a little behind after missing the entire preseason with a foot injury. His touchdown was a 10-yard pass to rookie Ladd McConkey in the fourth quarter. Things should be better for Herbert in Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards couldn't find too much room to run in a Week 1 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Edwards ran the ball 11 times, gaining 26 yards. He caught his only target for a two yard gain. Edwards led the team in carries, but saw fellow running back J.K. Dobbins pick up 135 yards on 10 carries. Edwards will always have a role in this backfield, but if Dobbins stays healthy, Edwards could be in much more of a support role than expected.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had a tough outing in Sunday's 28-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, throwing for just 186 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Despite his usual rushing ability (including a QB-designed run in the first quarter), he only managed 15 yards on the ground, which did little to offset his lackluster performance. Jones struggled to move the offense consistently, and his two picks were costly (one being a pick-six), consistently putting the Giants in difficult field position. Fantasy managers banking on his dual-threat ability were left disappointed, and watch out for the Drew Lock chants from the fans.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud connected with wide receiver Stefon Diggs for two touchdowns in a 29-27 victory in Week 1 over the Indianapolis Colts. The former Bills receiver caught all six of his targets for a meager 33 yards but turned two high-quality red zone targets into scores, including a two-yard connection with 4:42 to play that proved to be the game-winner. Most importantly for fantasy managers, Stroud distributed the ball fairly evenly to Houston's top three receivers. Even with the addition of Diggs, Nico Collins drew eight targets and Tank Dell earned seven, showing there is a path in which all three remain starting lineup fixtures. The 10th-year pro will look to carry the momentum into Week 2 when the Texans play host to the Chicago Bears.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon had an excellent debut with his news team, piling up 159 rushing yards and a touchdown while catching all three of his targets for an additional 19 yards in Houston's 29-27 victory at Indianapolis. Mixon had both volume and efficiency within the Texans' offense, an outstanding sign for fantasy managers through one week. The 28-year-old back was the overwhelming first option out of the Houston backfield, drawing a whopping 30 carries to just three for backup Dameon Pierce. The former Bengal also tied for fourth on the team in targets with tight end Dalton Schultz, indicating that he will be involved in the passing game and his rushing workload. Mixon should continue to be a lineup regular as Houston looks to go 2-0 with a home game against the Chicago Bears in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (abdomen) looked good in Sunday's win over the Denver Broncos. He ran the ball 20 times, amassing 103 yards and a touchdown, adding two grabs for six yards. Unfortunately, Walker exited the game due to abdominal pain, so fantasy managers are obviously concerned. With that said, there should be an update on his condition soon. But barring a significant issue, he's a must-start when Seattle meets New England in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Bryce Hall (ankle) was injured in Sunday's win over the Commanders. Things didn't look good, with the 26-year-old suffering an ankle injury and exiting the field on the cart. Hall, who signed with the Bucs in the offseason, spent three seasons with the Jets, totaling 122 tackles, two picks, and 21 passes defensed in 34 games. However, there's a chance the injury will keep him on the shelf for a while, which isn't good news for the Bucs defense. As always, more information is likely on the horizon.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens caught six of seven targets for 85 yards and lost 10 yards on his lone rush attempt in an 18-10 victory against the Atlanta Falcons. There was no doubt that Pickens would operate as Pittsburgh's WR1 entering the season, but fantasy managers should be glad to see him succeed in this role immediately. The 23-year-old earned a 30% team target share with Justin Fields under center and was responsible for most of the Steelers' offensive highlights. He should be viewed as a solid fantasy WR2 going forward with the potential to become more should Pittsburgh correct its red zone woes. A matchup against the Denver Broncos is on tap for Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth turned four targets into four catches for 27 yards in a Week 1 win against the Atlanta Falcons. His statistical output won't jump off the page but Freiermuth trailed only George Pickens in targets, receptions, and receiving yards for the Steelers on Sunday. With MyCole Pruitt and Darnell Washington also combining for three targets, it's clear that tight ends will play a prominent role in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system this season. With no wide receiver outside of Pickens earning more than two opportunities this week, Freiermuth could very well be the second option in the Steelers' passing attack moving forward. Fantasy managers can consider starting the 25-year-old in an enticing matchup against the Denver Broncos next week.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell drilled six field goals in Week 1, leading the team to an 18-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Boswell nailed a 57-yarder in the first quarter and remained hot throughout the contest, converting on field goal attempts of 56, 51, 44, 40, and 25 yards. The 10th-year pro was responsible for all of Pittsburgh's points on Sunday as the team struggled mightily near the red zone. Given how strong the Steelers looked defensively, Pittsburgh may have great field position often enough to make Boswell a fantasy option in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (knee) exited Sunday's matchup with the Cleveland Browns and was deemed questionable to return. If Ferguson doesn't make it back in Week 1, he'll finish the day by catching three balls for 15 yards. With that said, there should be an update on his left knee soon, although further testing is likely on the horizon. Dallas has been up big for most of this game and haven't really need to go to the air often. If Ferguson needs to miss time beyond Week 1, Luke Schoonmaker would likely step in as the team's TE1.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 17 of 23 pass attempts for 156 yards and added 57 rushing yards on 14 carries in an 18-10 win against the Atlanta Falcons. The Steelers were conservative in their play calling on Sunday, but Fields delivered when asked to push the ball downfield. He completed passes of 33 and 40 yards to receiver George Pickens, who was clearly his favorite target. His statistics were underwhelming from a fantasy perspective this week but Fields will continue to offer high upside as a fantasy QB1 option any time he starts. Fantasy managers should monitor the status of Russell Wilson (calf) in the coming days ahead of a Week 2 matchup against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris handled 20 carries for 70 yards and hauled in one of his two targets for nine yards in a Week 1 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Harris operated in a workhorse role on Sunday but should expect to lose some touches to Jaylen Warren, who had just returned from a hamstring injury, as the season progresses. Nonetheless, the 26-year-old Harris looked solid, especially on a powerful run that picked up 20 yards in the fourth quarter. However, Pittsburgh's offense will need to find a way to get the ball in the end zone for Harris to become a worthwhile fantasy option, making it difficult to trust him as anything more than a flex play heading into a Week 2 bout with the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions have declared OT Colby Sorsdal, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, DL D.J. Reader, DB Loren Strickland, DL James Houston, OT Giovanni Manu and LB Trevor Nowaske inactive for Week 1.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer was ejected from Sunday's matchup with the Raiders. Both teams were involved in a scuffle during the fourth quarter. However, Palmer and Jack Jones were the players who got the boot. Palmer finished the game by catching two of his four targets for 15 yards. While he'll likely be disciplined, his availability for Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers isn't expected to be a concern for many fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara looked good in Sunday's decisive win over the Panthers. The veteran ran the ball 15 times, accumulating 83 yards and a touchdown. He also got involved on the receiving end, catching all five targets for 27 yards. Kamara and the Saints had contract discussions over the last few months. However, a deal didn't get done, meaning further talks will likely wait until after the 2024-25 campaign. Despite not getting a new deal, Kamara remains focused on his play. "I'm not worried about it," said Kamara when asked about the unsuccessful negotiations. "I'm here to play. I'm gonna play. I'm gonna perform." It appears the 29-year-old is more focused than ever, which is great news for fantasy managers. Keep him starting in all formats when the Saints meet the Cowboys in Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (ankle) exited Sunday's matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. He's questionable to return. However, considering he needed assistance to the locker room, fantasy managers shouldn't be shocked if he doesn't make it back for the remainder of Week 1. If that's the case, he'll finish with four catches for 44 yards. Hopefully, it isn't anything serious. But Njoku may appear on the injury report ahead of the Week 2 meeting with the Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins WR Braxton Berrios and TE Durham Smythe were each held without a catch in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Berrios was targeted twice, while Smythe had three targets.
From TheHuddle
Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku (ankle) suffered an ankle injury during the Week 1 game and is considered questionable to return.
Fantasy Spin: Njoku is one of the better tight ends in the NFL, so fantasy players should keep an eye out for an update on his status. He is a weekly starting option when healthy, but fantasy players will need a backup plan if he misses time.
From TheHuddle