Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Free-agent wide receiver Kadarius Toney visited the Cleveland Browns for a tryout earlier on Friday, according to Field Yates of ESPN. Toney failed to make the Chiefs roster earlier this offseason and recently visited the Seahawks this week. Toney, who was drafted in the first round by the New York Giants in 2021, has struggled to find his footing at the professional level. He had a career-high 420 yards in his rookie campaign before joining the Chiefs, where he totaled just 169 receiving yards last fall. While Toney has flashed elite speed at times, he held an underwhelming 71% catch rate last season. If Toney were to sign with the Browns, he would likely only be deployed sparingly throughout the season and would not be worth a look in most formats.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is a high-risk, high-reward option as a borderline QB1 against the Tennessee Titans this Sunday. Williams displayed impressive potential during the preseason, with notable throws on the run and exceptional arm angles. However, this will be his first official game, so some growing pains are to be expected. In the preseason, Williams showcased his significant upside with a 13% big-time throw rate and 8.5 yards per attempt despite an adjusted completion rate of 61.1%. Williams must utilize his talented offensive weapons, including DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet, to capitalize on his opportunities, especially given the Titans' potentially improved pass defense. Last year, Tennessee allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and CPOE and had the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. However, they've bolstered their secondary with Quandre Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, and L'Jarius Snead. While the Titans' secondaryfeaturing Sneed (56.6 passer rating allowed in 2023), Roger McCreary, and Awuzie is seen as a strength, their safety corps could be a weak spot. The critical storyline will be how Williams performs in his debut, and leveraging his top targetsnotably Moore, Allen, and Odunzewill be crucial.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (thigh) is questionable for Sunday's season opener, according to Brady Henderson of ESPN. The veteran pass catcher has been dealing with a lingering thigh injury through most of August. Lockett was a limited participant during this week's practices. Fantasy managers should continue to follow the 31-year-old's status prior to their Week 1 matchup against the Denver Broncos. Last season, Lockett once again operated as the No.2 receiver in the Seattle offense and tallied 894 yards and five scores on 79 catches. If Lockett were to miss Sunday's game or participate in the limited capacity, wideouts DK Metcalf and sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba should see an increase in targets.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Pharaoh Brown (foot) was ruled out for the season opener against the Denver Broncos, according to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic. Brown suffered a foot injury earlier in August during a team practice and has not returned to practice yet this week. As a result, the 30-year-old will remain sidelined during Week 1. Fantasy managers should expect Brady Russell and AJ Barner to compete for the No.2 tight end spot on Sunday while Noah Fant sees the lion's share of snaps and targets at the position. Fant has also been dealing with a toe injury but has practiced in a limited capacity this week. Last season as a Patriot, Brown caught just 13 passes for 208 yards a score. Brown will likely not have any fantasy value this season serving in a depth role on the Seattle offense.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (hamstring) was officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, according to ESPN's Senior NFL Insider Adam Schefter. The 35-year-old was limited at practice on Thursday due to tightness and was seen at practice again on Friday. The former Super Bowl champion expressed that he wants to take it "day by day" and that he "wants to play" if he is available. It was a good sign to see Wilson at practice again on Friday but fantasy managers should continue to follow any updates regarding his status entering the weekend. If Wilson were to miss Sunday's season opener, Justin Fields would slot in as the QB1 for Steel City. Fields will likely provide a safe floor from a fantasy perspective, given his ability to run, but a shaky ceiling, given his throwing inconsistencies.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson (ankle) was ruled out for Week 1, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. The Michigan product suffered an ankle sprain that kept him sidelined for all training camp. However, he did begin to practice in a limited capacity this week, but the Steelers will lean on the side of caution for their third-round pick. The 23-year-old could be ready to make his regular-season debut in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos. In his final season at Michigan, the wideout caught 48 passes for 789 yards and 12 scores en route to winning a national championship. Fantasy managers should expect Van Jefferson to serve as the No.2 receiver this weekend, opposite of George Pickens. However, tight end Pat Freiermuth will likely see the most significant target uptick due to Wilson's absence.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints wide receiver A.T. Perry (hand) was listed as questionable on Friday's injury report. The 24-year-old did not participate in the past two practices, which leaves his status unknown for Sunday after hitting the injury report on Thursday with a hand injury. Perry did not show signs of a previous injury earlier in the week, so his placement on the injury report on Thursday seemed very sudden. Fantasy managers should continue to pay close attention to any updates regarding the Wake Forest product's status entering the weekend. Perry should serve as the No.3 wideout in the New Orleans passing attack when on the field. As a rookie last fall, he caught 12 passes for 246 yards and four scores. If Perry were to miss Sunday's season opener, both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed should see a slight uptick in targets.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is fully healthy to begin the season and has the potential to perform as a WR1 in a favorable matchup at the Lions in Week 1. Despite the emergence of last year's rookie breakout Puka Nacua, Kupp remains a favorite target of quarterback Matthew Stafford. His ability to move around the formation helps him get isolated in one-on-one coverage where he can use his shiftiness and route-running savvy to beat opposing defenders. The Lions drafted Terrion Arnold and signed Carlton Davis III in the offseason and each could see time defending Kupp in Week 1. In a potential shootout played in dome conditions, look for Kupp to score a touchdown and potentially get to 100+ receiving yards in the opening week of the season.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler is taking Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) as his pick as the biggest-name QB coming off an injury in 2024 to have a bounce-back performance. Cousins is recovering from an Achilles tear from last year, but the fact that he's a pure pocket passer will make his recovery from the injury that much more easier in 2024. The Falcons offense also has three former top-10 picks in receiver Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts, and Cousins is fully expected to help take all of their games to the next level in his first year in Atlanta. Cousins is expected to be ready to go for Week 1 on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The former Vikings signal-caller isn't on the QB1 radar in fantasy this year while coming off his Achilles injury, but he has the potential to serve as a high-end backup if he stays healthy.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford could be in line to have a very productive week as he visits his old team in Detroit for an SNF matchup against the Lions. The game is expected to have one of the highest totals of the week and Stafford has his full array of weapons (aside from tight end Tyler Higbee) with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both healthy. Throw Kyren Williams and capable backup tight end Colby Parkinson into the fray and Stafford should have plenty of options to throw to against a Lions defense that allowed 19.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy last season. Stafford averaged nearly 20 points per game in games in which Kupp played last season. He should be plenty motivated in his return from Detroit and should be treated as a borderline QB1 in Week 1. He can be started with confidence in the right roster situation.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (toe) was removed from the Week 1 injury report on Friday and will be active on Sunday in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals. Samuel has been dealing with turf toe but was set for a full practice session earlier this week on Wednesday, so his status for the regular-season opener was never really in much doubt. There is plenty of opportunity for the 28-year-old in Buffalo's receiving corps this year after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed in the offseason, but tight end Dalton Kincaid and receiver Khalil Shakir are expected to be quarterback Josh Allen's top targets in the passing game. It still leaves opportunity for Samuel, but he'll be competing with impressive rookie Keon Coleman for WR3 duties early on. Entering Week 1 on Sunday against Arizona, Samuel is best left on benches as a WR5/flex play.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Dan Graziano writes that Indianapolis Colts second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is one of the biggest-name QBs coming off injury that is primed for a big year in 2024. There's nothing but upside for Richardson, but he's still learning and will make questionable decisions. Graziano thinks Richardson's pure ability to make plays other QBs can't, combined with head coach Shane Steichen's feel for how to tailor the offense to Richardson's strengths, will result in a breakout season for the 22-year-old in just his second year in the NFL. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler writes that Steichen loves Richardson's ability and football smarts and is ready to maximize his skill set. If Richardson stays healthy, which is a big if, the Colts and fantasy managers that invested in him as a QB1 will be in great shape with a star on their hands.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills agreed to a four-year contract extension with right tackle Spencer Brown on Friday, according to sources. Financial terms of the agreement weren't immediately disclosed. The deal was negotiated by Chase Callahan and Ryan Tollner of Excel Football and proves that the Bills value Brown as one of the best right tackles in the game. The 26-year-old offensive lineman had offseason surgery on his shoulder but is ready to rock for Week 1 of the 2024 regular season this Sunday versus the Arizona Cardinals. Despite playing through his shoulder injury late in the 2023 season, Brown didn't miss a single offensive snap for Buffalo. With Brown on the right side and Dion Dawkins on the left side, the Bills have one of the stronger bookend tackle combinations in the NFL, which makes life easier on quarterback Josh Allen.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (toe) was upgraded to a full practice on Friday and was subsequently removed from the final injury report for Week 1 on Sunday at Soldier Field against the visiting Tennessee Titans. Johnson began the week on Wednesday with a limited practice and followed suit on Thursday before being a full-go on Friday. The 23-year-old missed valuable reps in training camp and the preseason with his toe injury, but he's ready for the start of the regular season and should be left on fantasy benches in the vast majority of leagues in Week 1. To open the 2024 campaign, Johnson is lined up as Chicago's RB3 behind D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert. The former fourth-rounder last year out of Texas, Johnson played in 15 games (zero starts) and compiled 352 yards on 81 carries (4.3 yards per tote) while scoring two TDs on the ground. He added 34 catches for 209 yards.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears defensive lineman Montez Sweat (toe) was a full participant in practice on Friday but is still considered questionable to play in the Week 1 regular-season opener this Sunday at Soldier Field against the Tennessee Titans. Sweat was limited in practices on both Wednesday and Thursday. After practicing in full on Friday, it would be a surprise if the 28-year-old pass-rusher was inactive on Sunday, but fantasy managers in IDP leagues will need to have a backup plan in place. If Sweat is active, he should be in starting lineups at the defensive-line position against a new offense being led by second-year quarterback Will Levis, who is entering his first full year as the starter under center. Even if Sweat sits the opener out, Chicago's defense/special teams unit should be considered a top-five unit in fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (hamstring) was a full participant in practice on Friday for the second day in a row and is not included on the final injury report for the Week 1 regular-season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. There was some panic about Pitts' status this week when he was limited on the first official injury report back on Wednesday, but that concern is now gone and he'll suit up this weekend. The 23-year-old former first-rounder had high expectations coming into the NFL as fourth overall pick in 2021 out of Florida. He responded immediately with a 1,000-yard season in his rookie year, but it came with just one touchdown. Pitts underwhelmed the last two years, but he also hasn't worked with great QBs. Many folks are expecting his fourth season to be his best in 2024 now that QB Kirk Cousins is leading the offense. Pitts should be locked into fantasy lineups in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is questionable to play against the New England Patriots due to ongoing contract disputes. Speaking to reporters after practice, Chase said he'd play without his sought-after extension but he feels a deal is close. Coach Zac Taylor said "We'll see" in regards to his star receiver suiting up. Chase sat out of training camp and admitted that he'll be limited if he is active on Sunday. The Bengals' number two receiver, Tee Higgins, is listed as doubtful after tweaking his hamstring in practice. A lack of top options could spell trouble for Joe Burrow's Week 1 projections, but it will mean more opportunities for WR Andrei Iosivas and TE Mike Gesicki. Chase is still a WR1 if he's active but fantasy managers should temper expectations.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson (hip) said his hip responded well during Friday's practice session, and he's optimistic he'll be ready to go for the Week 1 regular-season opener this Sunday versus the Cincinnati Bengals, barring an unexpected turn of events. Gibson was added to the injury report on Thursday and was limited in practice with his hip injury. The 26-year-old could be questionable on Friday's final injury report, but Gibson appears to be on the right side of questionable right now. If he's active for his Patriots debut, Gibson will be the backup to starter Rhamondre Stevenson in an offense that isn't expected to be very dynamic while being run by either QB Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye. Gibson should be on fantasy benches if he's active in Week 1, while JaMycal Hasty could rise to a backup role behind Stevenson if Gibson is held out.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) is officially listed as doubtful for the team's season opener on Sunday. Higgins tweaked his hamstring during Thursday's practice and missed practice on Friday, despite saying he felt "amazing" on Thursday. Higgins has a lengthy history of hamstring issues and it now appears that he'll miss his first game of 2024. Fellow wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is listed as questionable due to ongoing contract disputes. Andrei Iosivas is in line for more playing time and could be the team's de-facto top wide receiver against the Patriots if Higgins and Chase don't suit up.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (ankle) is no longer on the team's injury report and is cleared to suit up against the New York Giants on Sunday. The second-year wideout was carted off the practice field in mid-August with a high-ankle sprain but returned to practice in full on Friday. After taking advantage of Justin Jefferson's extended absence in 2023 (70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns), Addison's production is expected to take a dip in 2024 with Sam Darnold quarterbacking the team. Addison should be viewed as a boom/bust WR4 against the Giants.
From RotoBaller