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Krunchbunch2010 Est. 2010
FFL: Week 7 | NFL: Week 7

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Ja'Lynn Polk Oct 20 8:40pm ET
Ja'Lynn Polk

Dynasty | Patriots rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk failed to record a catch on three targets in a loss to Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Polk now has just 78 yards and a touchdown on ten catches through seven games. The second rounder can't be blamed for everything as he had to deal with Jacoby Brissett for most of the season. Still, this is a slow start and a concern for those dynasty managers who burned a likely second round rookie pick on him. Patience will need to be exhibited here but Polk is light years away from lineups at the moment.

A.J. Brown Oct 20 8:40pm ET
A.J. Brown

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. The Eagles and Saquon Barkley utterly dominated the New York defense on the ground and only needed to throw 14 times. Brown accounted for half of the completions quarterback Jalen Hurts threw and tallied 78% of the team's total receiving yards. No other receiver on the team had more than 11 receiving yards in this game, and it was not because the Giants' defense was doing well stopping the pass, the Eagles just did not need to throw often. The star receiver gets the chance to torch a Cincinnati secondary that ranks towards the bottom of the league.

From RotoBaller

Mason Rudolph Oct 20 8:40pm ET
Mason Rudolph

Tennessee Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph went 25-of-40 for 215 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Week 7 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Rudolph also fumbled three times in the 34-10 defeat, losing one. With Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury sustained last week, Rudolph got the start and was mostly ineffective in a game where the Titans were actually leading at the half. The longtime Steelers backup led two scoring drives to put the Titans up 10-0 early in the second quarter, but from that point forward it was mostly stalled drives and off-target throws under pressure. With Levis likely out a few more weeks, Rudolph should continue to start for this Titans team that has looked like one of the worst in football through seven weeks. Up next is a trip to Detroit to take on the 5-1 lions.

From RotoBaller

DeVonta Smith Oct 20 8:40pm ET
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith caught one of his two targets and lost two yards during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. While this stat line is going to look terrible to those who did not watch this game, there is no real reason to panic here. The Eagles leaned heavily on running back Saquon Barkley in this game and he tallied 187 total yards. Quarterback Jalen Hurts only needed to attempt 14 passes and all of the starters were out of the game in the early fourth quarter. It would have been nice to see the former Heisman winner get more of the target pie with such a low volume of pass attempts, but this was a week we can move on from because of the heavy Barkley reliance. Smith will still be considered a WR2 when the Eagles take on the Cincinnati Bengals.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Oct 20 8:39pm ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dynasty | Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr had five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in a win against the Patriots. Dynasty Analysis: The Jaguars have been bad, but you can't blame Thomas, who now has 30 catches for 513 yards and four touchdowns through seven games. Thomas routinely makes big plays and while Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville offense have had their troubles, the fact he's been this steady bodes very well for his future. Thomas is a solid hold and has solidified his first round rookie draft pick pedigree.

Raheem Mostert Oct 20 8:33pm ET
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert rushed 11 times for 50 yards in Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts, and he was not targeted in the pass game while he was credited with one lost fumble.

Fantasy Spin: Mostert is starting to round back into form, posting 4.5 yards per carry in his second game back after a month-long absence due to injury. As long as De'Von Achane remains healthy, Mostert's fantasy ceiling is a bit limited. And, the QB situation has been a mess since Week 2. Treat Mostert is more of a WR3 or flex fantasy option in most leagues heading into Week 8.

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Josh Allen Oct 20 8:33pm ET
Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen completed 21 of his 33 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-10 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 7.

From TheHuddle

Jonnu Smith Oct 20 8:33pm ET
Jonnu Smith

Miami Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith registered seven receptions for a game-high 96 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts.

Fantasy Spin: Smith has racked up 12 receptions for 158 yards and the TD on 15 targets in the past two games. He has posted low-end TE1 kind of numbers for fantasy managers in the past two games. He'll look to keep it rolling in Week 8 against the visiting Arizona Cardinals, and there is a chance he gets Tua Tagovailoa back from a concussion, too.

From TheHuddle

Kenneth Gainwell Oct 20 8:30pm ET
Kenneth Gainwell

Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell took 13 carries for 56 yards and took his lone reception for 11 yards during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. This was the most involved the 25-year-old had been this season, with most coming in the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter when most Eagles starters were pulled. Since the addition of Saquon Barkley, Gainwell has had just one game of more than two carries coming into this game. He also shared carries with rookie Will Shipley down the stretch of this game, and would likely be in a timeshare if anything ever happened to Barkley. He can be safely left on waivers in redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Amari Cooper Oct 20 8:23pm ET
Amari Cooper

Buffalo Bills WR Amari Cooper scored a touchdown in his team debut, finishing with four catches for 66 yards and the score in a 34-10 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 7. Cooper played 18 offensive snaps.

Fantasy Spin: Despite a limtied snap count, Cooper made his presence felt. Once he is fully up to speed with the offense, Cooper could provide WR2 production.

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Noah Fant Oct 20 8:20pm ET
Noah Fant

Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant had another good day for fantasy in the Seahawks' Week 7 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Fant caught all four of his targets for 65 yards. Fant has been inconsistent in 2024. However, when he hits, he hits for double-digit fantasy points. Fant now has two straight games with at least 63 receiving yards. It could indicate that the Seahawks are committed to feeding him the ball more in 2024. Fant is undeniably a talented tight end. The Seahawks have simply preferred to feed their talented trio of wide receivers in the passing game. For now, it is likely worth rostering Fant just in case his consistency sticks. Additionally, fantasy managers should monitor the status of wide receiver DK Metcalf (knee). If Metcalf were to miss time, then Fant could be a main beneficiary in the passing game.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Oct 20 8:20pm ET
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a complete dud in the Seahawks' Week 7 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Smith-Njigba finished with three receptions for nine yards. He also completed a pass for 35 yards. While he did have six targets, Smith-Njigba's lack of air yards was disappointing for fantasy managers and reminiscent of his rookie season in 2023. Smith-Njigba was coming off three straight games with double-digit fantasy points, so his Week 7 dud was out of character. It did not help that quarterback Geno Smith only threw for 207 yards after hovering at, or over, 300 yards in the past five games. Smith-Njigba continues to be a difficult fantasy asset to trust in 2024. It would appear that a full-on breakout may not be in the cards for the second-year wide receiver. The Seahawks offense runs through wide receiver DK Metcalf (knee) and running back Kenneth Walker III. Everyone else in the offense is secondary and the ball tends to be spread around.

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Cooper Kupp Oct 20 8:20pm ET
Cooper Kupp

According to Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, wide receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle) is expected to return for Thursday's game against the Minnesota Vikings. The wideout has been on the shelf with an ankle injury, although he's been recently inching closer toward a return. While there's a chance he's limited in his first game back, assuming he officially receives the green light, he's a must-start in any format. That said, Kupp's anticipated presence in Week 8 could mean fewer targets for Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Jordan Whittington.

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Saquon Barkley Oct 20 8:20pm ET
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley took 17 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown, adding two receptions for 11 yards during the team's 28-3 win over the New York Giants. The former No. 2 overall pick was stifled on the first carry of the game to a roar of cheers, and then hit stick a Giants defender two plays later. This was the start to a massive performance with multiple runs of over 20 yards against a solid Giants defensive line. Barkley was a man on a mission this week, and he will likely end the week as the No. 1 back in fantasy. With that load off his back, he will look to have another successful outing next week when the Eagles travel to Cincinnati to play Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

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Tyler Lockett Oct 20 8:20pm ET
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Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett caught four of six targets for 45 yards in a Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons. Lockett continues to see solid target volume and has been relatively efficient with his targets. His yardage totals continue to remain low, but he has been a trusted safety valve for quarterback Geno Smith all season. The Seahawks' passing volume in Week 7 was lower than it had been in recent weeks. Smith only threw 28 passes in the game. The defense did a good job propelling the Seahawks to victory and the offense did not have to do a lot in the passing game in the second half. As such, Lockett should continue to be a solid fantasy asset moving forward when the Seahawks are not blowing teams out. Fantasy managers should not expect much in the way of a ceiling from Lockett, however, he has demonstrated he has a solid floor in a potent Seahawks offense in 2024.

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David Montgomery Oct 20 8:13pm ET
David Montgomery

Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 116 rushing yards, four catches, 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Gibbs took advantage of an early David Montgomery injury to post his best game of the season. While Montgomery did return to action, Gibbs carried the mail most of the day and showed just how talented he is. Unfortunately, this is going to be the way it goes with both in Detroit long-term. While it's great two have two premier running backs in reality, it's created a major buzzkill for dynasty managers. Still, Gibbs is a weekly play who can post games like this every week.

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Anthony Richardson Oct 20 8:13pm ET
Anthony Richardson

Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 10-of-24 passes for 129 yards, adding 56 rushing yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a game that wasn't exactly the NFL's signature showcase of the year, Richardson failed to throw a touchdown or an interception. He continues to carve out dynasty value with his legs, but also needs to improve dramatically as a passer before anyone believes he can really reach his ceiling. At this point, Richardson still looks like a project and his dynasty value is starting to slip.

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Adonai Mitchell Oct 20 8:13pm ET
Adonai Mitchell

Dynasty | Colts rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell had two catches for 30 yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a weird statistical oddity, Mitchell has posted either between 30-39 yards or fewer than ten in each of his seven games this season. Today was one of the better ones, but you can hardly call this a breakout game. Mitchell is in the midst of a very disappointing year and while some of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play, Mitchell is also looking like a player who really needs some work. His dynasty value is starting to decrease and it seems valid at this point.

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Jordan Love Oct 20 8:13pm ET
Jordan Love

Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 24-of-33 passes for 220 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in a win against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Love has had an odd season thus far as he's thrown for 15 touchdowns (good) and eight interceptions (bad) in his five games this year. When you consider Love threw just 11 interceptions last season in 17 games, this is at least a mild concern. While dynasty managers shouldn't panic at this point, a few clean games from Love would certainly put some minds at ease. He remains a dynasty QB1 and solid player to build around at the moment.

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Nick Chubb Oct 20 8:13pm ET
Nick Chubb

Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 22 rushing yards, one catch, ten receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Most importantly, Chubb entered and left the game healthy. The Browns are in the midst of a terrible season, sitting at 1-6 and having just likely lost their quarterback for the season. It was great to see Chubb back, but it's also fair to wonder just what he's going to be able to do if the Browns can't do something in the passing game. He'll remain a flex play moving forward, though it was encouraged to see him get 11 of the 16 running back carries.

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