RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
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The Los Angeles Chargers announced on Tuesday that rookie wide receiver Brenden Rice and safeties Tony Jefferson and JT Woods were among the players that made the final 53-man roster heading into the 2024 regular season. Rice made the final cut after impressive during training camp and the preseason. The 22-year-old son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice was taken in the seventh round of April's NFL draft out of USC. He might be worth stashing in deep dynasty/keeper leagues, but for his rookie season, he'll merely be a depth option for the Bolts behind Joshua Palmer, DJ Chark, rookie Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Simi Fehoko and Derius Davis. Rice excels with his route-running and also plays with a physical style on contested catches down the field. Initially, he might be a red-zone weapon for a new-look Chargers offense in 2024.
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The Indianapolis Colts waived running back Evan Hull on roster cutdown day on Tuesday, according to a source. Hull did not make the 53-man roster out of training camp after he was selected in the fifth round last year out of Northwestern. In his rookie campaign, the 23-year-old only appeared in one game and had one carry for a one-yard pickup while catching his only target for a six-yard pickup before suffering a knee injury that kept him out the rest of the way. It would be surprising if the speedy and powerful back didn't land elsewhere for RB depth, and at the worst, he'll return to the Colts' practice squad after losing out to Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson as the backups to starter Jonathan Taylor. Hull is more of a short-yardage, between-the-tackles runner than he is a pass-catching option out in space.
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The Washington Commanders released running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. on Tuesday, according to source. Rodriguez didn't survive cutdown day after the Commanders added Austin Ekeler in free agency in the offseason. The 23-year-old former sixth-round selection last year out of Kentucky finds himself on the open market now after carrying the ball 51 times for 247 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games in his rookie season in 2023. He added only two receptions for 12 yards. In the end, Rodriguez lost out on the competition for the No. 3 role behind Brian Robinson Jr. and Ekeler to Jeremy McNichols. If the power back doesn't get picked up by another team in search for RB depth, it's possible that Rodriguez will stay in D.C. on the team's practice squad. Before suffering an ankle injury, Rodriguez had a nice little five-game stretch in which he averaged 37.2 yards per game.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay said that running back Kyren Williams will be the team's punt returner this year. While this could boost Williams' fantasy value slightly in leagues that count return yardage, it's another sign that the Rams could be preparing to lessen Williams' load as a three-down RB out of the backfield after they added rookie Blake Corum out of Michigan. It's also another way for Williams to get injured. However, although the news isn't idea, it shouldn't keep Williams from remaining a low-end RB1 selection in upcoming drafts. The 24-year-old will still open the 2024 season as the Rams' primary RB after breaking out in 2023 with 1,144 rushing yards, a league-leading 95.3 yards per game and 12 touchdowns in just 12 regular-season games. Williams also had 32 catches for 206 yards and another three scores.
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The Washington Commanders released wide receiver Martavis Bryant on Tuesday despite the fact that he scored a touchdown in the preseason finale over the weekend. Bryant was with the Dallas Cowboys earlier this offseason as he attempts to get back into the NFL, but he now hits the open market again. The 32-year-old pass-catcher could land with another team before the start of the 2024 regular season, but it remains a long shot that he'll find a meaningful role this year. The former fourth-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2014 out of Clemson hasn't appeared in the NFL since 2018 with the Raiders, when he caught 19 passes for 266 yards and no touchdowns in eight games (two starts). There's also a chance that Bryant will stick around in Washington and join the team's practice squad to open the year.
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Running back Samaje Perine was officially released by the Denver Broncos on Tuesday. Perine was previously reported as a cut candidate if the Broncos could not find a trade partner. The Broncos are moving forward with a younger running back group featuring Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime. Perine was a productive back with Denver in 2023 after several solid years with Cincinnati. He finished the season with 238 rushing yards and a touchdown on 4.5 yards per carry. More importantly, Perine caught 50 passes for 455 yards. That kind of production is sure to land Perine a job in 2024. His release opens up more opportunities for McLaughlin in the Denver offense. McLaughlin will now jump up to the No. 2 running back spot behind Williams.
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Wide receiver Robbie Chosen was released by the San Francisco 49ers on Tuesday. Chosen signed with the team earlier in training camp but ultimately failed to make the final roster. Chosen has bounced around the league with stops in Carolina, Arizona, and Miami over the last two seasons. Chosen recorded four receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown in nine games with Miami in 2023. For now, Chosen will have to hope he can sign on to another practice squad.
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Former Denver Broncos wide receiver Tim Patrick is expected to sign with the Detroit Lions. Patrick did not make the Broncos' final 53-man roster earlier on Tuesday and appears to have found his new home. Patrick has battled injuries in recent years. He has not played since the 2021 season due to a torn ACL in 2022 and a torn Achilles in 2023. Before his injuries, Patrick was productive when healthy. His signing is slightly worrisome for fantasy managers hoping for more production from Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams. However, this could just be a depth move for a Lions team that has several unproven names behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, and Kalif Raymond. Patrick is 30 years old after all and coming off two significant injuries.
From RotoBaller
The Arizona Cardinals released running back Michael Carter on Tuesday. Carter was clinging to a roster spot behind James Conner, Trey Benson, Emari Demercado, and DeeJay Dallas. Carter joined the Cardinals in the middle of the 2023 season and recorded 22 carries for 149 yards and no touchdowns in six games with the team. He was unlikely to factor into the offense in 2024 despite a solid preseason.
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Dynasty | The Jaguars have waived quarterback CJ Beathard. Dynasty Analysis: Beathard gets an injury settlement and Jones gets to be Trevor Lawrence's backup. This was a close battle but a late preseason injury to Beathard pretty much sealed the deal. Jones will now look to continue his development behind Lawrence and hope for a shot as a starter again elsewhere. The former first rounder is a tough hold on a dynasty roster, however.
Dynasty | The Bills have released wide receiver KJ Hamler. Dynasty Analysis: The Bills tried everything they could to make this work (even trying Hamer at running back) but it just didn't work out in the end. Hamler was a former second round pick of the Broncos and has had a hard time staying healthy and showing any form of consistency. He may emerge as an option elsewhere but this isn't good for his dynasty value.
Dynasty | The Saints are placing running back Kendre Miller on IR. Dynasty Analysis: He can return later this season, so this isn't season-ending. However, New Orleans is clearly not excited about what they've received from Miller in his short tenure and it's clear he's on very thin ice. While he should still hold a roster spot in most dynasty leagues based on his potential (and potential opportunity), his dynasty value is hanging by a thread,
Dynasty | The Chiefs have released tight end Irv Smith Jr. Dynasty Analysis: Smith is having a hard time sticking in the league after what amounts to failed stops in Cincinnati and now Kansas City. Once a highly regarded prospect with the Vikings, Smith may be running out chances in the NFL. He's not a roster worthy stash at tight end after this move.
Dynasty | The Chiefs have released wide receiver Kadarius Toney. Dynasty Analysis: The Chiefs really tried to make it work with Toney but he's proven to be more trouble than he's worth. There's really no doubting the talent here but Toney has also proven to be unreliable both on and off the field. Someone will certainly take a shot at him in the coming days, making him still a hold in deep dynasty leagues until we see the smoke clear.
Dynasty | The Commanders have released running back Chris Rodriguez. Dynasty Analysis: Rodriguez had some nice moments last year but was caught up in a numbers game after Washington traded for Austin Ekeler. With much of the "deep sleeper" bloom off the rose now with his release, it's going to be tough for dynasty managers to hold on to Rodriguez.
