Guest of the League
The Big League 3 (est. 2011) Est. 2010
FFL: Week 10 | NFL: Week 10

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 10

Player Notes
Cam Little Nov 9 12:00pm ET
Cam Little

Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little isn't a great option this week in fantasy against the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars are dealing with a lot of injuries on offense, including quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who seems likely to be replaced by Mac Jones. With the offense's upside lower than usual, the already mid-tier fantasy kicker is even worse of a fantasy option than he has been this season. To top it all off, the Vikings defense has been one of the best defenses in fantasy against kickers. If all of the banged up receiving options, such as Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, are healthy, he could have a decent day, but the upside for fantasy points is extremely limited. Unless fantasy managers believe in Mac Jones, Little is best left out of lineups in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Parker Washington Nov 9 11:50am ET
Parker Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington will be tasked with stepping up once again against the Minnesota Vikings. In Week 9, Washington had just three catches for 41 yards on six targets last week in relief of Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. Brian Thomas Jr. was a game-time decision but played. Kirk is out for the rest of the season and Davis and Thomas Jr. are questionable once again, so Washington should have a similar role against the Minnesota Vikings. His main competition is tight end Evan Engram, the healthiest receiving option currently on the team. Washington will have to deal with Mac Jones potentially taking over for Trevor Lawrence as well this week due to an injury of his own, but the two did play together a bit during preseason. It's risky, but Washington is a potential deep league flex play once again in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Nov 9 11:00am ET
Drake Maye

The Chicago Bears' defense and special teams are looking to rebound in Week 10 as they face off against the New England Patriots. After a somewhat strong showing in Week 9, where they kept things competitive despite a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears now turn their attention to rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Maye has been impressed, managing a solid performance despite working with a below-average group of skill players. The Bears' defense will need to key in on Hunter Henry, his top weapon in the passing game if they hope to neutralize the Patriots' attack. Rhamondre Stevenson will be a key focus on the ground, especially after the Bears were gashed by the Cardinals' rushing attack last week. While the Bears' defense is still a startable fantasy option in Week 10, their floor is lower than expected, and fantasy managers should be cautious, given the potential for big plays from Stevenson and Henry. With Maye showing poise and the Patriots having some weapons, the Bears could be in for a more challenging outing than anticipated.

From RotoBaller

Kyler Murray Nov 9 11:00am ET
Kyler Murray

The New York Jets defense/special teams will head on the road to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. New York's pass rush was a problem in a Week 9 win over the Houston Texans as they notched eight sacks in the win. They will look to keep it going against Kyler Murray and company this weekend. The Cardinals have been a tough matchup for fantasy defenses this season, however, as they are allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position thus far. The Jets settle in as a top-15 fantasy defense heading into Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Tank Bigsby Nov 9 11:00am ET
Tank Bigsby

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby will have to hold off Travis Etienne Jr. once again against the Minnesota Vikings. He was limited in practice all week due to an ankle injury but is fully off the injury report after Friday's practice. Bigsby had a big Week 7 against the New England Patriots with Etienne Jr. out but had a down week in Week 9 against the Philadelphia Eagles with Etienne Jr. back. This week could be a bit different, as with the receiving core banged up and Mac Jones replacing Trevor Lawrence, the running backs could be relied on more than usual both on the ground and in the passing game. Especially with a blitz-heavy defense from Brian Flores, the short passing game specifically could be a large part of the game plan. Bigsby serves as an interesting flex play in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Evan Engram Nov 9 11:00am ET
Evan Engram

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram should still be viewed as a TE1 in Week 10 but should be slightly downgraded against the Vikings. That is due to starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence likely being out due to injury this Sunday, and Mac Jones potentially being at the helm instead. While it's possible Engram is fine with a different QB, the change would make him a riskier fantasy option than usual. Given the volatile nature of the tight end position in fantasy, managers shouldn't bench him, but expectations should be tempered slightly. He had 10 targets last week, but only caught five of them for 45 yards. That is around the level he should be at against the Vikings in what should be a similar game script. Engram is still a starting fantasy tight end but has less upside than usual in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Travis Etienne Nov 9 10:30am ET
Travis Etienne

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. will look to take back control of the backfield in Week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings. He was questionable earlier in the week due to a hamstring injury but is no longer on the injury report after Friday's practice. Etienne Jr. only earned 31% of the snaps and five touches last week after missing the previous two games. He came into the season as the clear lead back, but due to a combination of underwhelming play and the emergence of backup Tank Bigsby, the backfield situation in Jacksonville is now at best an even split. However, with Trevor Lawrence and the receiving core banged up, both Etienne Jr. and Bigsby could be more involved than usual against the Vikings. Etienne Jr. should be viewed as a solid flex option in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Mac Jones Nov 9 10:20am ET
Mac Jones

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones seems likely to start this Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is dealing with a left shoulder injury from last week's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles and practiced in a limited fashion all week. The former first round pick of the New England Patriots has a decent matchup against the Vikings, who have been hit or miss against offenses in fantasy so far. Brian Flores, who also happens to be a former New England Patriot, loves to blitz, which can be difficult for quarterbacks who aren't ready for it, but can also mean great fantasy games for those who are ready for it. Fantasy owners should definitely hold off on starting Jones unless they are desperate given Week 10 would be his first start of the season.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Nov 9 9:30am ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) is officially questionable to play against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. He had been listed as a limited participant during all three days of practice this week. Thomas has exceeded expectations in his rookie season, catching 35 passes for 595 yards and five touchdowns through nine games. He ranks as the overall WR10 in terms of fantasy points this season, which is an impressive feat for someone catching passes in a 2-7 offense. Fantasy managers will hope that the LSU product suits up this week. He's a solid WR2 option despite a matchup against the Vikings' strong defense.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Nov 9 9:30am ET
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis (shoulder) is officially questionable to play against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. He had been listed as a limited participant in practice all week long. Davis picked up the shoulder issue in Week 9, ultimately exiting the game early and finishing without a catch. In total, through nine games this year, he has 18 receptions for 217 yards and two touchdowns. That comes out to an average of just two catches and 24 receiving yards per game, which is certainly not good enough to keep him on the fantasy radar. Even with fellow receiver Christian Kirk (collarbone) done for the year, Davis' role is unappealing. He can be dropped in most leagues.

From RotoBaller

Chris Olave Nov 9 9:20am ET
Chris Olave

The New Orleans Saints will place wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion) on injured reserve Saturday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Olave has suffered two concussions this season and four throughout his young career, prompting him to meet with specialists and potentially re-evaluate his future in the NFL. The Saints do expect Olave will return to the field this season, but his placement on IR rules him out for a minimum of four games. New Orleans has already lost Rashid Shaheed (knee) for the rest of the season, so Olave being sidelined once again will create significant opportunities for depth receivers like Cedrick Wilson Jr., Mason Tipton, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

From RotoBaller

Jake Moody Nov 9 9:20am ET
Jake Moody

San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody (right ankle) logged a full practice on Friday and has been removed from the team's final injury report. As a result, he will play in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Moody has been sidelined since the end of Week 5, at which point he had gone 12-for-12 on extra points and 13-for-14 on field goals through five games. He earns significant volume as a result of the 49ers' strong offense, pairing his high usage with Moody's fantastic accuracy. The 24-year-old finds himself among the top 12 fantasy kickers for Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Mecole Hardman Nov 9 9:20am ET
Mecole Hardman

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (shoulder, knee) logged a full practice on Friday. He had previously been listed as a limited participant. Friday's upgrade in practice status prompted the Chiefs to remove Hardman from the injury report, which means he'll suit up this week versus the Denver Broncos. The 26-year-old has filled a depth role this year, catching just nine of 10 targets for 75 yards. His involvement is expected to stay roughly the same in Week 10, keeping him firmly off the fantasy radar.

From RotoBaller

Braelon Allen Nov 9 9:10am ET
Braelon Allen

New York Jets running back Braelon Allen saw just four carries for nine yards in a Week 9 win over the Houston Texans. Allen will look to bounce back in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Cardinals represent a nice matchup for Allen as they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game over the season. That being said, Allen has seen his opportunities cut since the Jets fired Robert Saleh following Week 5. While he remains a priority handcuff in case Breece Hall gets hurt, Allen should not be in starting lineups in fantasy heading into the weekend.

From RotoBaller

Rhamondre Stevenson Nov 9 9:10am ET
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the NFL's most productive running back in terms of scoring touchdowns lately. He has found the end zone four times over the last two games. Despite his clear productivity around the goal line, Stevenson has struggled in other areas, including efficiency; he has just 2.1 yards per carry over his last two games. In total, over the last two weeks, he has 30 carries for 64 yards on the ground, eight catches for 55 yards through the air, and the four touchdowns. He'll look to keep his scoring streak going this week against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed the 13th-most rushing yards and 10th-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. Given that Chicago has a strong secondary, we could see the Patriots lean on the run this week even if they're playing from behind. With decent volume, Stevenson could be a solid low-end RB2, but he'll still need to show good efficiency, scoring tendencies, and pass-catching work.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Nov 9 9:00am ET
Davante Adams

New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams broke out in his third game with his new team, catching seven of 11 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. He will look to keep it going in Week 10's road matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has been average against wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position. That being said, the targets have consolidated around Adams and Garrett Wilson of late and that should continue to be the case with Allen Lazard (chest) on injured reserve and Mike Williams now a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Treat Adams as a mid-range WR1 in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Garrett Wilson Nov 9 8:40am ET
Garrett Wilson

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson has been on a tear of late as he has gotten to at least 100 receiving yards in three of his past five games while notching four touchdowns over that span. Wilson will look to keep it going in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Cardinals have been a decent matchup for receivers as they are allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position thus far. The target share has really consolidated around Wilson and Davante Adams of late and that should continue to be the case in Week 10 with Mike Williams traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Allen Lazard (chest) on injured reserve. Treat Wilson as a top-six fantasy wideout this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Nov 9 8:20am ET
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (knee, hamstring) is coming off one of his best games of the season as he threw for three touchdowns in a win over the Houston Texans last week. Rodgers has a chance to stay hot against the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 10. The Cardinals represent a good matchup for Rodgers as they are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Rodgers settles in as a high-end QB2 in fantasy heading into Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Breece Hall Nov 9 8:20am ET
Breece Hall

New York Jets running back Breece Hall ran for 74 yards in a win over the Houston Texans in Week 9. He will now look to break a two-game scoreless streak in Week 10's road matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have been generous to opposing running backs as they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position thus far. Hall has been the Jets' bell cow since they changed head coaches last month and should continue to dominate the backfield touches in a favorable matchup, making him a high-end RB1 in fantasy in Week 10.

From RotoBaller

Alec Pierce Nov 9 8:10am ET
Alec Pierce

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce hauled in three passes for 41 yards in Week 9 after totaling three catches for 36 yards over the prior three weeks. With fellow wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. set to miss this week's game, Pierce could see an uptick in targets. If the 6-foot-3 wideout can convert a target or two into receptions, it could be a big day for the speedy receiver. So far this year, Pierce has earned only 12.84% target share compared to Pittman's 22.18%, yet Pierce commands 26.97% of the team's air yards compared to Pittman's 24.91%. That is because most of Pierce's targets are deep shots, having a whopping 22.60 average depth of target (aDOT) compared to an aDOT of 12.08 for Pittman. Still, the Colts offense struggled last week even with a so-called upgrade at quarterback with Joe Flacco under center instead of Anthony Richardson, and it could have a difficult day against a decent Bills pass defense. If the Colts rely on the ground game, as the Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs, then the receivers may not stand to get much of boost in Pittman's absence. Pierce is still more of a boom/bust WR5 this week, with perhaps a better shot than recent weeks of catching a long one.

From RotoBaller