Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
TFC Champion is Crowned
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is scheduled to meet with the Rams on Friday, feels more likely to return to L.A., according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Nothing is final, but it's looking like a reunion between Stafford and the Rams is more likely than a few days ago when it looked like he would leave. Both the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants have discussed a two-year deal for Stafford that includes $90-100 million guaranteed, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini. A resolution is expected by the end of the NFL Combine this weekend. The Rams' preference is to stay year-to-year on a potential deal with Stafford -- they've typically averaged an annual salary of $40-45 million for him. It's a figure that ranks around the middle of the NFL this year, while Stafford has mostly produced like a top-10 QB in his time in L.A., including a Super Bowl victory.
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The Seattle Seahawks have spoken with a couple of teams about wide receiver DK Metcalf's availability this week at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, according to multiple sources. However, general manager John Schneider has pointed out before that simply talking to another team doesn't mean a trade is imminent. The Seahawks aren't actively shopping Metcalf, but at least one team that has inquired about him thinks they have a trade package in place that would make Schneider strongly consider pulling the trigger on a trade. A source indicated that the Green Bay Packers have had talks with Seattle this week and have an offer on the table that includes a high pick and a young receiver on roster for Metcalf. The 27-year-old failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year and scored a career-low five TDs in 15 games in 2024, but a possible move to Green Bay, where he'd be the clear WR1, could easily rejuvenate his fantasy value. Stay tuned.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Dane Brugler reports that University of Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan will not do any workouts for scouts at the NFL Combine this weekend in Indianapolis. McMillan apparently is dealing with an undisclosed injury that he suffered recently, which would make sense why he'd be skipping on-field workouts at the Combine. "He got hurt in the spring and I don't know that he ever made it back to 100 percent. The 2023 tape gives you a better idea of who he is," according to an AFC scouting director. The 21-year-old is a possession receiver with the size (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) and ball skills to succeed as a downfield threat at the next level. While McMillan should easily be a first-round selection in this year's NFL draft, he could struggle with physical cornerbacks and might not be a huge asset in run-after-the-catch production.
From RotoBaller
University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward said he will not throw at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis on Saturday. Ward says his tape speaks for itself and he will instead throw at his school's Pro Day on March 24. It's no surprise, with most of the top prospects sitting out Combine workouts in favor of more controlled environments at their Pro Days. The 22-year-old signal-caller spent one year with the Hurricanes in 2024 and threw for 4,313 yards, 39 touchdowns and seven interceptions. With elite athleticism as a dual-threat QB, Ward is in play to be the top overall pick in this year's NFL draft, along with Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders and Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter. In addition to his 4,000-plus passing yards and 39 TDs through the air, Ward had 60 rushing attempts for 204 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions plan to release veteran linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin when the new league year begins in March, a source told NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Reeves-Maybin, who is the NFL Players Association president, made his first career Pro Bowl and was a second-team All-Pro in 2023. The 30-year-old has been a long-time contributor and special teams standout for the Lions, but he'll be on the open market this spring. He was drafted in the fourth round (124th overall) by Detroit in the 2017 NFL draft out of the University of Tennessee and has spent all eight of his seasons with the Lions. A neck injury limited him to just 10 regular-season games (no starts), and he finished with just 14 tackles (10 solo) and a forced fumble. Reeves-Maybin is mostly useful for his prowess on special teams and should eventually latch on with another organization for the 2025 campaign.
From RotoBaller
NewOrleans.Football's Nick Underhill reports that the New Orleans Saints met with University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward at the NFL Combine on Thursday. Ward is a candidate to be taken No. 1 overall in this year's NFL draft as one of the top QBs in this year's class. It's not all that notable that the Saints actually met with Ward, as the Saints don't pick until ninth overall in this year's draft, and Ward is widely expected to go within the top three picks. Additionally, there's a good chance the Saints stick with veteran Derek Carr as their starter under center in new head coach Kellen Moore's first season with the team in 2025. However, with Carr carrying a $51.458 million salary cap hit this year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Saints move on and then trade into the top portion of the draft to select Ward as their future signal-caller.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee) is reportedly doing well in his recovery this offseason from a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. Darrisaw had surgery on his knee in early November but is trending in the right direction after injuring his knee in the loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8. Head coach Kevin O'Connell said that the 25-year-old offensive lineman is "absolutely killing it every step of the way." Still, Darrisaw has a ways to go in his recovery from a pretty serious knee surgery and won't be a lock to be ready for Week 1 of the regular season this fall. We should have a better idea of his progress and status for the start of 2025 when training camp rolls around in late July. When Darrisaw is ready to go, he could be protecting former first-rounder J.J. McCarthy's (knee) blind side after he missed all of his rookie season in 2024 due to a knee injury of his own.
From RotoBaller
The Seattle Seahawks have given safety Rayshawn Jenkins permission to seek a trade, sources told FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz. After signing a two-year, $12 million deal with Seattle last offseason, Jenkins played in a career-low 13 games (nine starts) and finished with 53 tackles (34 solo), two sacks, and a fumble recovery returned 102 yards for a touchdown. The 31-year-old spent time on Injured Reserve after having surgery on his hand, but when he returned in November, he lost his starting job to Coby Bryant. Jenkins has a $7.780 million salary cap hit in 2025. If the Seahawks were to cut him, they'd save $5.280 million while taking on $2.5 million in dead money. It means that if Seattle cannot find a trade partner, Jenkins will likely be cut after just one year with the team. The former fourth-rounder by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2017 out of the University of Miami could be battling for a part-time role if he's available on the open market.
From RotoBaller
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said that all sides expect a resolution to Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford's saga by the end of this week's NFL Combine in Indianapolis. Stafford is looking to be compensated as a top-10 QB in the league, which would mean at least $40 million over the next couple of seasons, but the Rams are playing hardball, which is why they've allowed him to reach out to other teams to gauge his value this offseason. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders appear interested in trading for the 37-year-old veteran signal-caller and signing him to a new deal that will pay him more, but Rapoport says not to rule out a return to the Rams. Although he might have to take a bit less money to stay in L.A., the Rams likely give Stafford the best shot at winning another Super Bowl ring at the tail end of his career. Stay tuned for more developments by the end of this weekend.
From RotoBaller
According to a league source, Cleveland Browns four-time All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett is "not open to" a contract extension with the team. Garrett has made it clear that he has no intention of sticking around in Cleveland after formally requesting a trade in the week leading up to Super Bowl LIX in early February. Competing for a Super Bowl ring, which he doesn't think will happen in Cleveland at this point, is much more important to any amount of money for Garrett. However, the Browns continue to hold firm on their stance that they will not trade Garrett. The way things are going, this situation could get messy this offseason. But ultimately, the 29-year-old could force the Browns' hand. The six-time Pro Bowler has at least 14 sacks in each of the last four seasons and could bring two first-round picks to Cleveland in return if they ultimately give in and trade him. Regardless of where he's playing in 2025, he'll be a high-end IDP defensive lineman.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry said at the NFL Combine this week that quarterback Deshaun Watson (Achilles) wasn't doing "anything nefarious" when he re-tore his right Achilles tendon last month. There has been speculation that the Browns would try to recoup some or all of the $92 million they still owe Watson for the final two years of his five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million deal. That hasn't been the case, though, and Watson continues to rehab in Cleveland and is determined to play again after the devastating injury. Still, the 29-year-old is no lock to be able to play at all in 2025 and might not play again for the Browns at all. If he stays with the Browns in 2025, which seems likely, the best bet is that Cleveland will bring in a veteran (through either trade or free agency) to serve as the starter under center.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch said on Wednesday at the NFL Combine that running back Christian McCaffrey (knee) is "doing great" and that he thinks the star RB will be able to participate in "at least parts" of the offseason program. McCaffrey was a bust at the top of fantasy drafts last fall, as he played in just four games in 2024. He missed the first two months with bilateral Achilles tendinitis and then suffered a season-ending PCL injury on Dec. 1 in the loss to the Buffalo Bills. The 28-year-old's fantasy stock will take a hit in 2025 because of his injury-plagued season, but it's hard to forget that he has rushed for 2,407 yards and 20 rushing touchdowns while catching 134 passes for 1,174 yards and 11 receiving touchdowns in 31 games since he joined San Fran midway through the 2022 season. If healthy, CMC can be a league-winner, but the injury risk is very high.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is reportedly coming back for the 2025 season. Dynasty Analysis: Pat McAfee is reporting this on his own, so it's far from official. However, it seems his "source" is none other than Kelce himself, who seemingly has a bad taste in his mouth after being blown out in the Super Bowl. Kelce is also apparently saying he's committed to being in the best shape of his life after a relatively unproductive season (by his standards) last year. His 97/823/3 line is far from his prime, but if Kelce does indeed come back, he'll do so as a low-end TE1 at the very least. Stay tuned.
Sources told Pat McAfee that Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is "coming back for sure" in 2025 after briefly contemplating retirement following the 40-22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. "I'm gonna get in the best shape of my life this offseason. I've got a real bad taste in my mouth with how I played in that last game and I can't go out like that!!!!" Kelce also said via sources. We haven't exactly heard it from Kelce's mouth directly, but it's a pretty good indication that the 35-year-old four-time All-Pro and 10-time Pro Bowler will be returning in 2025. By Kelce's standards, 2024 was a down year with a 97-823-3 line in 16 regular-season games. His 823 receiving yards were his fewest since his rookie year in 2013, when he played in just one game, and his three TDs were also his fewest since 2013. Kelce will still be important in KC's offense if he returns, but his days of being an elite, high-end TE1 in fantasy could be over.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane said that safety Cole Bishop will "have every chance" to be a starter in 2025. Head coach Sean McDermott also said the team will be counting on Bishop to make an impact next season, but it will also depend on how much work he puts in in the offseason. The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia thinks safety Damar Hamlin would almost certainly have to settle for a below-market deal if he wants to stay with the Bills as the backup to Bishop in 2025. The 22-year-old Bishop was taken in the second round (60th overall) in 2024 out of Utah and had a promising rookie campaign, recording 40 tackles (25 solo), two pass breakups and a forced fumble in 16 regular-season games (four starts) in Buffalo. Bishop led the team with 10 total tackles in the AFC Championship game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano has had two long-term injuries over the last two years, which puts him in the conversation as a potential salary-cap casualty this offseason, but the Bills are expecting him back in 2025. Milano suffered a torn biceps before the 2024 season but was able to rehab and return by the end of the year. Also, cutting Milano this year would incur an $11 million dead-cap hit in 2026. The 30-year-old only ended up playing in four games for the Bills in 2024, but the team expects him to be a starter again in 2025 now that he'll be able to have a normal, healthy offseason. In his four games last season, Milano recorded 16 tackles (seven solo) and two fumble recoveries. He was a first-team All-Pro back in 2022, though, so if he can return to his pre-injury form, it will be a huge boost to Buffalo's defense and put him back on the radar in IDP fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Sources told Josina Anderson that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers met with linebacker Lavonte David's agent on Wednesday at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, and "it was a positive conversation." The Buccaneers are still willing to give David plenty of time to make a decision on whether he wants to continue his career. Additionally, other NFL teams are checking on the 35-year-old veteran's potential interest in playing elsewhere. The former second-round pick by Tampa in 2012 had his 11th 100-plus-tackle year in 2024 in his 13th year in the league, also adding 5.5 sacks, nine tackles for loss, six QB hits, an interception, six pass breakups, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 17 regular-season starts in 2024. It would be a surprise if Davis announced his retirement since he's still playing at a high level despite his age.
From RotoBaller
At the 2025 NFL Combine, top draft prospect Travis Hunter said he wants to play both wide receiver and cornerback in the NFL. The Colorado product is at the combine primarily as a defensive back, but he won't participate in on-field work. However, some teams view him more as a wide receiver at the next level. Hunter won the 2024 Heisman Trophy after posting 96 receptions for 1,258 yards and 15 receiving touchdowns. On defense, he racked up 36 tackles (25 solo), one tackle for loss, four interceptions, and 11 passes defended. The 21-year-old is a unicorn of a prospect, but there remains uncertainty around his role in the NFL, and it could vary widely depending on which team selects him. Hunter is difficult to analyze as a fantasy football prospect, but if he lands with a team that wants to use him as a full-time wideout, he has no shortage of upside.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford should know where he is going to play in 2025 by March 14, according to NFL insider Albert Breer. March 14 marks the official start of free agency, and the Rams owe Stafford $4 million in the form of a roster bonus if he's with the team by that date. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders are reportedly the top potential suitors for Stafford if he is moved, but the Rams could ultimately offer Stafford more money to stay with the organization. While Stafford is entering his age-37 season in 2025, he is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and could be headed toward a significant pay raise.
From RotoBaller