RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta struggled in Week 9, posting just two receptions for 28 yards in the team's 24-14 victory over the Green Bay Packers. After a season-best performance last week, LaPorta fell short again, marking his third game with fewer than five PPR fantasy points and his sixth single-digit fantasy outing in eight games. Even with Jameson Williams out (PED violation), LaPorta was largely uninvolved, as the Lions continued to rely heavily on their rushing duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Despite his early-season promise, LaPorta remains a volatile option with Detroit's offense leaning on its ground game. He'll aim for a rebound in Week 10 against the Houston Texans.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates had an average fantasy showing in Week 9, finishing with one field goal and converting all three extra points in the 24-14 win over the Green Bay Packers. This brings Bates to 30 of 31 on extra points for the season. This also marked only the third time this season that he's finished with less than eight fantasy points. Bate's streamable status remains strong thanks to Detroit's high-scoring offense. Bates continues to offer reliable production in favorable matchups and will look to add to his season totals next week against the Houston Texans.
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Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had nine catches for 59 yards in New York's loss to Washington. Dynasty Analysis: The yardage totals weren't great, but Nabers did catch nine passes on 11 targets, more than making up for it in PPR leagues. Nabers has proven to be dominant as a rookie this season and while his ceiling is capped with Daniel Jones as his quarterback at times, he has the looks of a top two rookie this season and long-term WR1 in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 15-of-22 passes for 209 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: It was just another day at the office for Daniels, who added another 35 yards on the ground. The Commanders are 7-2 and the surprise of the NFL this season with much of that credit going straight to Daniels, who has been simply brilliant. While his nine passing touchdowns will need to increase for him to be an elite dynasty option, Daniels' floor is high because of his rushing ability and tendency to take care of the football. Caleb Williams is going to be good, but Daniels really may turn out to be great.
Dynasty | Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completed 29-of-41 passes for 206 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions in an overtime loss to Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: Maye added a whopping 95 rushing yards on the day, the most by a New England quarterback since the 1970s. He also had a game-tying miracle touchdown pass at the end of regulation, but New England eventually fell in overtime. Maye still has room to grow, but you can tell he has real talent and finally looks like the long-term answer the Patriots have been looking for since Tom Brady left town. Maye's dynasty value is on the rise.
Dynasty | Titans running back Tony Pollard had a season-high 128 rushing yards in a win against New England. Dynasty Analysis: Where was this last season? Pollard now has 750 rushing yards at the halfway mark on a team one could argue is a lot less talented than the ones he's played on in Dallas the past few years. Regardless, Pollard has established himself as the best option in the offense for the Titans and has been consistently solid all season and established himself again as a solid RB2. His dynasty value is back on solid ground.
Dynasty | Browns receiver Cedric Tillman had six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Tillman was the lone positive from a game where the Browns just got annihilated. With three good games in a row, Tillman is looking like a solid lineup consideration moving forward, especially when you consider he had a whopping 11 targets and Jameis Winston struggled mightily. In short, it this is Tillman's floor at the moment, that's a good thing. His dynasty value is going to continue to rise moving forward.
Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 39 rushing yards in a loss against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Chubb now has just 113 rushing yards and one touchdown on a putrid 2.7 yards per carry since returning from injury earlier this month. Defenses are doing their best to stop him, but it's fair to wonder if Chubb has lost a step at this point. We'll wait to truly assess his future value for a few more weeks, but he looks like a player you just can't start at the moment and one whose dynasty arrow is starting to really point down.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Jameis Winston completed 26-of-46 passes for 235 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in a loss against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Yep, that's about right. Winston was dominant last week, erratic this week and nobody on earth is going to be able to predict what's next for one of the NFL's streakiest performers. The Browns are going to go as Winston goes, so dynasty managers are going to be along for the ride. At this point, Winston is going to have in-season value, but it's hard to see him being a bona fide starter again in the NFL at this point in his career.
Dynasty | Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston had four catches for 118 yards and a touchdown in a blowout win over the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: Johnston had a famously disastrous rookie season, but has bounced back nicely this year with 18 catches for 282 yards and four touchdowns. While still the WR2 to Ladd McConkey, we're at least seeing some solid signs of life from Johnston, something we never saw last year. His dynasty value is ticking up ever so slightly at the moment.
Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 120 rushing yards, five catches, 37 receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: With Zack Moss out with an injury, Brown took advantage with a monster game and likely took over this backfield in the process. Brown has shown flashes all season, but today was next-level good and gave the Bengals a major shot in the arm. The buy window on Brown likely closed today and he looks poised to rise up the running back rankings in the coming weeks.
Dynasty | Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow completed 27-of-39 passes for 251 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: The habitually slow-starting Bengals are back to 4-5 after this one and Burrow is certainly one of the reasons why. Through nine games, Burrow now has 2,244 yards with 20 touchdowns and just four interceptions on the season. Cincinnati may end up digging too deep of a hole to get out of, but Burrow is clearly back to nearly full health and QB1 status. His dynasty value is stable, if not ticking up at this point in the season.
