RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Denver Broncos didn't win in Week 1 on the road at Lumen Field against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, but there defense certainly played better than their offense. Denver's defense/special teams finished as a top-10 fantasy through Sunday night in the 26-20 defeat. They got to quarterback Geno Smith two times, picked him off once, created two safeties and recovered a fumble on a muffed punt. The Broncos' revamped defensive line allowed 146 rushing yards on 33 attempts for a 4.4 yard-per-carry average. Through the air, they limited Smith to 158 passing yards to allow just over 300 yards total in a tough road game to kick off the regular season. Denver's D/ST will remain on waiver wires in most leagues, but they could be worth streaming consideration in deeper leagues in a Week 2 matchup at home against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that could already have QB controversy.
From RotoBaller
The good news for Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton in the team's 26-20 Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday was that he led the team with 12 targets. However, Sutton could only connect with rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix four times for just 38 receiving yards in a day in which Nix looked a bit overmatched in his NFL debut against a fired-up defense in a hostile environment. The 28-year-old Sutton is certainly going to have ups and downs in 2024 while working with a rookie signal-caller. It's clear that Nix is going to target Sutton plenty as the WR1 in Denver, but Sutton's fantasy managers couldn't have been thrilled with rookie Devaughn Vele drawing eight targets of his own in his NFL debut. The Pittsburgh Steelers won't pose a much easier matchup in Week 2, where Sutton will set up as a touchdown-dependent WR4/flex.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams left tackle Joe Noteboom (ankle) was carted to the locker room during the first half of Sunday's game against the Detroit Lions. All of a sudden, the Rams are struggling to stay healthy as they deal with injuries throughout their offensive line. Wide receiver Puka Nacua (knee) and cornerback Darious Williams (hamstring) are also banged up. Noteboom has a lengthy injury history as he tore his ACL and MCL in 2019, dealt with a calf issue in 2020, and tore his Achilles in 2022. The Rams will task AJ Arcuri with more reps at left tackle until Noteboom can return.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos offense could not consistently move the football in the Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at Lumen Field, but Lutz was still able to have a strong fantasy day thanks to the Broncos offense not being able to capitalize on good field position throughout the day. Lutz finished the day a perfect 3-for-3 on his field-goal tries, with a long of 45 yards. He also hit his only extra point to finish as a top-10 fantasy kicker in the games through Sunday night. Lutz's other two field goals were good from 30 and 35 yards out. It was a nice first game of the 2024 season for the 30-year-old booter, but the Broncos offense under rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix is going to need to show improvement for Lutz to be considered an option as a streaming fantasy kicker in standard-sized 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele made a statement in his NFL debut on Sunday in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Vele didn't have a banner day by any means with just 39 receiving yards, but his eight receptions (on eight targets) surprisingly led the team on a day in which the Broncos offense couldn't really move the ball at all consistently in rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix's NFL debut. Vele caught all eight of the balls thrown his way in this one and was tied for second in targets with Josh Reynolds, behind Courtland Sutton's 12. Vele, a seventh round pick this year, wasn't targeted very far beyond the line of scrimmage with his eight receptions, but just that fact that he commanded that much attention from Nix is notable. The 26-year-old seems to have developed some good chemistry with his QB and is worth a look in deeper fantasy leagues as a waiver pickup.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Bryce Hall (leg) was carted off the field in an air cast during Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders. He has been diagnosed with a dislocated right ankle and fractured fibula. It's a crushing blow for the Buccaneers, their secondary, and Hall. The 26-year-old is likely headed for an extended absence, and there's even a possibility that the Buccaneers could shut him down for the rest of the season. Hall doesn't have a very lengthy injury history, but he did suffer a season-ending ankle injury during his final collegiate campaign in 2019. The Buccaneers suddenly find themselves incredibly shorthanded at cornerback with Hall sidelined, Zyon McCollum (head) concussed, and Josh Hayes (ankle) at risk of missing time.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds had a positive debut with the Broncos in their Week 1 loss on the road at Lumen Field against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday by a score of 26-20. Nobody in the Broncos offense really had a great game, but Reynolds caught five of his eight targets for a team-high 45 yards receiving. His eight targets were tied with rookie Devaughn Vele and were second on the team behind Courtland Sutton's 12. Nothing about Denver's offense under rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix was really that impressive, and the young signal-caller spread the ball around, which is mostly bad news for all of Denver's pass-catchers. For now, Reynolds should remain on the waiver wire in standard-sized 12-team leagues as he battles for targets as the WR2 in Denver with Vele, Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns fear that tight end David Njoku (ankle) suffered a high-ankle sprain during Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The 28-year-old had caught four of five targets for 44 yards prior to his departure. Cleveland suffered a brutal loss at the hands of the Cowboys, so this latest news about Njoku adds insult to injury. Assuming this initial diagnosis is confirmed, Njoku will be looking at an extended absence (typically a month or more) followed by a significant performance dip once he returns. Until he gets back on the field, Jordan Akins will operate as the Browns' top tight end. He remains off the fantasy radar for the time being.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos quarterback Bo Nix completed 26-of-42 passes for 138 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a season-opening loss at Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Nix actually led the Broncos in rushing with 35 yards and a touchdown but he really struggled, making a few other ill-advised throws that also could have been picked off. Nix looked like a typical rookie in his first NFL start, so there's no need to panic. Still, he should be firmly on dynasty benches until we see him string a few good games together.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 23 rushing yards on eight carries, while catching one pass for no gain in Denver's opening day loss at Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Yuck. Williams was out-carried by Jaleel McLaughlin 10-8, though neither of them looked particularly effective on the day. It's way too early to throw in the towel on Williams but this is a red flag after his disastrous 2023 season. Williams belongs on fantasy benches until Bo Nix can do enough to keep defenses honest as this Denver offense looks anemic at the moment.
Dynasty | Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had two catches for 19 yards in Seattle's win against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Sigh. Smith-Njigba is one of the most popular breakout candidates this year but today's game was eerily similar to many from last year. There's a long runway for JSN to make some progress but this wasn't what dynasty managers hoping for a year two breakout were expecting today. JSN should stay on fantasy benches until we see some positive signs moving forward.
Dynasty | Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in Tampa Bay's opening day win over Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Mayfield has had some serious ups and downs in his career but he sure has found a home in Tampa Bay. Fresh off signing a new contract, Mayfield shows he was worth the money (and more) in this one today as he routinely placed the ball wherever it needed to be, hitting seven different receivers on the day. While not a sure-fire "set it and forget it" option quite yet, Mayfield is looking like no worse than a high-end QB2 next week and possibly beyond this season.
Dynasty | Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 17-of-24 passes for 184 yards and added 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Washington's opening day loss against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Daniels clearly has room to improve but this is a very promising stat line if this indicates his floor, which it very well may. He looked relatively poised in the pocket and frankly, much better than any other rookie quarterback we saw at the helm today. While there are inevitably going to be some bumps in the road, Daniels looks the part of a future QB1 with a truly dynamic skill set.
Dynasty | Tampa Bay rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan had one catch for 32 yards and a touchdown in the Bucs opening day win against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: McMillan only had three targets but made the most of a deep one he got late in the game. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin entrenched as the two top options, McMillan is going to fight for scraps this season. Still, today's effort shows he has real talent and dynasty managers have themselves a solid stash at the moment.
Dynasty | Bucs rookie running back Bucky Irving had 62 yards rushing, two catches, and 14 receiving yards in Tampa Bay's season-opening win against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Rumors have been swirling about Irving eating into Rachaad White's workload this year and today's performance won't exactly throw cold water on that notion. Irving looked shifty and spry on the day and routinely made players miss throughout the contest. While White (15 carries) is going to remain option 1A, a few more performances like this could create a true timeshare in Tampa Bay. Irving is a solid rookie hold at the moment as he looks like a player who could pay quick dividends in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Commanders running back Austin Ekeler had ten rushing yards, four catches, and 52 receiving yards in Washington's season-opening loss to Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: The concerning part here is the fact Ekeler had just six touches on the day and many of them came with the game far out of reach. Brian Robinson had 15 touches and seemed like the clear RB1 on this team today. If that continues, it's going to be very difficult for the former fantasy MVP to return to form or even provide any kind of value this season. At this point, Ekeler is looking the part of a roster clogger but we need to see this pattern to continue before putting that in stone.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 24-of-45 passes for 169 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the Browns loss against Dallas. Dynasty Analysis: Oh boy. Watson's 3.8 yards per attempt is beyond anemic and he simply looks nothing like he once did in Houston. While this was his first game action in a number of months, this was still concerning, despite Watson complaining about arm soreness the past few weeks. In short, today's game did nothing to throw any cold water on the notion that Watson is simply cooked. He's a low-end QB2 at this point and one who likely shouldn't be in fantasy lineups.
Dynasty | Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle had 26 rushing yards, adding one catch for another six yards in a Dallas road victory against Cleveland on opening day. Dynasty Analysis: The Dallas offense looked good today but that was really because of Dak Prescott and the receiving corps more than Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott or anyone in the running game. Elliott out-touched Dowdle 12-9, but neither was particularly good on the day. This has the looks of a frustrating committee, at least at the beginning of the season.
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams had about the worst start his fantasy managers could have asked for in the 26-20 Week 1 loss at Lumen Field on Sunday to the Seattle Seahawks. Williams only saw eight carries for 23 yards (2.88 yards per carry) while catching one of his two targets for no gain in the passing game. In addition to his poor performance, Williams was out-touched 15 to eight by backup Jaleel McLaughlin and out-gained in total yardage 28 to 23. The Broncos offense wasn't moving the ball at all in rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix's NFL debut, and the Denver ground game was especially poor against a Seahawks defense that was very generous against the run in 2023. Williams should lead the Broncos backfield in touches on most weeks, but he faces another difficult matchup in Week 2 against the Steelers, where he should be considered an RB3/flex.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin actually out-touched backfield mate Javonte Williams 15 to eight in the 26-20 Week 1 loss on Sunday to the Seattle Seahawks out Lumen Field, but he did very little with his touches and also lost a crucial fumble. The Broncos offense couldn't really sustain any drives all day. McLaughlin finished with a team-high 10 carries for 27 yards (2.7 yards per tote) while catching all five of his targets for just one yard while also losing a fumble. It wasn't a great day for anyone in the Denver offense, but fantasy managers stashing McLaughlin in deeper leagues have to like the fact that he out-touched Williams and potentially could be the team's preferred third-down back this year. It would be a reach to consider him worth a starting lineup spot in Week 2, though, as the Broncos head home to face the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers next Sunday.
From RotoBaller
