Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 9
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson had an uneven game as the Packers suffered defeat at the hands of the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions 24-14. Watson led the Packers in targets with seven, only bringing in three receptions for 37 yards. In the fourth quarter, Watson added a successful two-point conversion with a catch to prop up his fantasy day a little more. It's been an up-and-down season for Watson and he's had a hard time separating from a talented group of pass-catchers in Green Bay, which limits his fantasy value. The Packers have a week off in Week 10 but against the division-rival Chicago Bears in Week 11, Watson should be a boom-or-bust flex play for fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft blended into the background a bit as the Packers suffered defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions 24-14. Kraft has been very productive for fantasy managers this season but his Week 9 output was very quiet. With six targets on the afternoon, Kraft put up just four receptions for 34 yards. Kraft also had one rushing attempt for two yards to convert a fourth-down conversion early on in the game. With the wide array of pass-catchers on the Packers, it can be a bit easier to blend in and with the Lions pressuring quarterback Jordan Love, that's exactly what happened. Kraft and the Packers will have Week 10 off on bye, but will be back on the field in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears. For fantasy purposes, Kraft should be viewed as a low-end TE1 in that matchup.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed was one of the bright spots for the Packers as the team lost at home to the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions 24-14. Reed led the Packers in receptions (5) and receiving yards (113), while finishing second on the team in targets with six. Reeling in all three passes that traveled at least 20+ yards, Reed's role was stark compared to the last couple of weeks, where Reed had been used in a lot of short-area throws from quarterback Jordan Love. This impressive game was a great to see from his fantasy managers, but he'll have to wait to build upon that performance as the Packers are on bye in Week 10. Reed should be considered a mid-range WR2 for fantasy when Green Bay travels to take on their division rival Chicago Bears in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff delivered a subpar fantasy outing in the team's 24-14 win over the Green Bay Packers, finishing with just 9.6 fantasy pointshis second-lowest total of the season and only his second game without reaching double digits. Despite the weather and a limited passing workload, Goff completed 18 of 22 passes for an efficient 81.8% completion rate. He totaled 145 yards with one touchdown and kept his streak of five straight games without an interception intact. While the game didn't yield high fantasy numbers for Goff, his consistency and ability to manage the game helped secure another win for the Lions, solidifying their spot atop both the division and conference standings. The Lions will look to keep their momentum going against the Houston Texans in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught seven passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Rams. With no DK Metcalf (knee) in the lineup, Smith-Njigba made the most of his increased opportunities. He once again led Seattle in targets and scored his second and third touchdowns of the season. Smith-Njigba continues his up-and-down season in 2024. He seems to deliver great fantasy output in random games. When he was the No. 1 wide receiver in Week 8, he had a modest output but he was the total opposite in Week 9. The Seahawks are headed into their bye and continue to be inconsistent on offense from week-to-week or even quarter-to-quarter. Perhaps the bye will give both the Seahawks and Smith-Njigba time to figure a few things out.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett scored for the second time in 2024 in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Rams. As expected, Lockett was a safety valve for quarterback Geno Smith with DK Metcalf (knee) out of the lineup. While Smith struggled with interceptions all game long, Lockett was still able to deliver solid fantasy value. Lockett has rarely sunk your week in any given week in 2024. That should continue to be the trend once Metcalf returns and there is less attention on Lockett and fellow wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks head into a bye in Week 10 and need to sort things out on offense. Hopefully the reset helps all the skill players in this offense moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (groin) was good to go to play in Week 9 after two limited practices and a questionable tag, but he was lackluster in the Packers' 24-14 loss at home to the Detroit Lions. Love was 23-of-39 passing for 273 yards, but did not throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and threw an interception which led to a return for a touchdown by Kerby Joseph that broke the game open at the end of the first half. While Love was not sacked, he was pressured from the jump by the Lions' defense and fumbled the ball three times, but he didn't turn the ball over on those instances. The Packers get their bye at a great time as Love can rest up during Week 10 before heading to take on their oldest rival, the Chicago Bears, in Week 11. A healthy Love is still in the fantasy QB1 conversation despite Week 9's misstep.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III finally received high-end rushing volume once again in Week 9 when the Seahawks met the Los Angeles Rams. Unfortunately, he was highly inefficient with his volume. Walker only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on 25 carries. However, he did manage to catch all three of his targets for 24 yards. Walker's receiving numbers in 2024 have given him a great base in fantasy football. After being on fire earlier in the season, Walker has faltered in recent weeks. While he is still delivering useable fantasy numbers, he has been nowhere near producing the top five weeks that he was providing fantasy managers earlier in the season. Some of it is not his fault as the Seahawks' offense has been unable to get out of its own way over the past couple of weeks. Turnovers and mental errors have derailed drives and put the Seahawks in unfortunate circumstances. With their bye ahead of them in Week 10, look for this offense to right the ship moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert rushed the ball ten times for 56 yards and added two receptions for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He also lost a fumble. While Mostert has been putting up solid rushing stats since his return in Week 5, his fumbling troubles have overshadowed some of the production. Miami is third in fumbles since 2023 (14). He contributed four of them in 2023 and has two more in 2024. Nonetheless, his yards per carry output remains solid, and he still received 12 touches. The 2023 rushing touchdown leader went empty on the day, but that won't be a regular occurrence. De'Von Achane was able to get in twice from inside the red zone, obviously hurting Mostert's production. He'll look to bounce back in Week 10 at the Los Angeles Rams.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith struggled once again in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Rams. Without his top target in DK Metcalf (knee) for a second straight week, Smith threw three interceptions. He did continue his high-end passing yardage output and he threw multiple touchdowns in a game for just the second time this season. Despite the interceptions, Smith likely did not sink your fantasy team in Week 9. Due to a solid rushing baseline, Smith continues to be a useable asset in fantasy. Smith did find his footing towards the end of this game when he was able to find wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a game-tying drive in the fourth quarter. Nobody seems to need Seattle's Week 10 bye more than Smith who clearly needs Metcalf back in the lineup. Hopefully, things will improve for Smith and Seattle's offense come Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (ankle) was questionable heading into Week 9 and was cleared to play against the Detroit Lions, where the Packers lost 24-14. Jacobs was efficient on the ground, totaling 95 rushing yards on just 13 attempts before the Packers were in catch-up mode for the sizable portion of the second-half. In the receiving game, Jacobs also added two catches for 13 yards on three targets. With the Packers on bye heading into Week 10, that will give Jacobs this week to get healthy before a divisional slugfest with the Chicago Bears in Week 11. For that contest, Jacobs should be considered a low-end RB1 for fantasy purposes given his huge chunk of the rushing volume for the Packers.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley took 27 carries for 159 yards and a touchdown, added three receptions for 40 yards and an additional score, and lost a fumble during the team's 28-23 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 27-year-old's 199 scrimmage yards were his most in a single game this season, and he posted his best numbers as a receiver this year as well. Quarterback Jalen Hurts did not take any goal line opportunities away from Barkley this week, and got things started for the Eagles and threw a 20-yard score to the star back to give Philadelphia its first points scored in the first quarter all season. The Eagles may be without A.J. Brown (knee) for the second time in 2024, but regardless of his status next week the Eagles will likely lean on Barkley again as they face a struggling Dallas team.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught six passes for 50 yards in the team's 30-27 win over the Miami Dolphins. The slot receiver only trailed rookie running back Ray Davis in receiving yards and led the team in receptions. As usual, Shakir was efficient with his targets. He missed one this week, bringing his total uncaught targets this season to three. Shakir has at least six catches in three straight games and will bring a safe PPR floor into Indianapolis in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman caught one pass for 21 yards on two targets in the team's 30-27 win over the Miami Dolphins. It was a disappointing afternoon for the rookie who had been breaking out in recent weeks. Coleman's uncaught target went right off his hands inside the 10-yard line and landed in cornerback Jalen Ramsey's lap. He was unofficially targeted on the Bills' game-winning drive, resulting in a penalty that set up a Tyler Bass field goal. Amari Cooper (wrist) may return in Week 10. His presence has helped the second-round pick. The Bills travel to Indianapolis next weekend.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 18 of 24 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns, adding 13 carries for 67 yards and an additional score, during the team's 28-23 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. This game marks the fourth in a row that the 26-year-old has not committed a turnover and he had a fantastic day as a passer despite losing A.J. Brown (knee) in the early third quarter. The brotherly shove was actually ineffective this week but Hurts still found his way into the end zone on an 18-yard run where he went over a defender to dive in for the score. We will need to wait for an update on Brown's status, but even if he is absent, Hurts will remain a must-start against a Dallas team that is reeling with injuries.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid caught four of 10 targets for 32 yards in the team's 30-27 victory over the Miami Dolphins. That was a season-high target mark for Kincaid but he could not reel in half of them. Kincaid has over 30 yards in every game except the opener this season but hasn't logged more than 52. It's a continuation of a disappointing 2024 campaign for the second-year tight end. He'll look to have his breakout game in Week 10 against the Indianapolis Colts.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed 25 of 39 pass attempts for 235 yards and three touchdowns in the team's 30-27 victory over the Miami Dolphins. He also threw one interception on a mishandled pass by wide receiver Keon Coleman. As has been the case for the last few weeks, Allen didn't do much with his legs (two carries for seven yards). Rookie running back Ray Davis did the heavy lifting on Allen's longest touchdown pass, turning a short gain into a 63-yard catch-and-run. Allen's other two scores were short completions to Mack Hollins and Quintin Morris. Allen will be ranked as a QB1 next weekend when the Bills travel to Indianapolis.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook rushed the football 10 times for 44 yards and caught five passes for 25 yards in the team's last-second victory over the Miami Dolphins. It was the second-fewest carries that Cook has logged in a game this season (nine versus Baltimore). Backup running backs Ray Davis and Ty Johnson combined for seven carries. Cook's stat line was far from what he did against the Dolphins in Week 2 when he scored three touchdowns. Fantasy managers in PPR leagues got a double-digit performance out of Cook, but non-PPR and half-PPR managers weren't as fortunate. Cook draws a positive matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) will undergo an MRI to address an AC joint issue in his shoulder. The wideout exited Sunday's meeting with the Atlanta Falcons, although he still managed to return to finish with eight catches for 47 yards. Without a doubt, the Cowboys can't afford any more injuries, considering Dak Prescott (hamstring) will also need an MRI to address the hamstring injury suffered in Week 9. If Lamb can't play in the NFC East showdown with the Eagles, Jalen Tolbert, Jalen Brooks, KaVontae Turpin, and Jake Ferguson would all likely see more attention on the receiving end.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney hauled in five of nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 win over Dallas. With fellow wideout Drake London going down with an injury early on in the game, Mooney and Bijan Robinson picked up the slack, accounting for 12 of Kirk Cousins' 19 completions. The 27-year-old has now earned six or more targets in seven of nine games and has gone over 80 yards receiving in four of them, with Sunday's TD giving him five on the season. An early look at next week's contest with New Orleans provides another favorable matchup with the Saints in the top third in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If London were to miss any time, it would give an additional boost to Mooney and the rest of the receiving corps.
From RotoBaller