Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Top DFS Pickem Plays: Week 1
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver DJ Chark (hip) has been placed on the injured reserve on Saturday. This means Chark will now miss at least the first four weeks of the regular season. He continues battling a hip issue that looks like it's going to need more time to heal. His absence should mean more targets for Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and rookie Ladd McConkey to open the season. Out of the three, Palmer probably has the most streaming appeal, but Johnson and McConkey should get chances as well. Chark isn't someone who needs to be stashed in most fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo (groin) will suit up for Monday's game against the New York Jets. The rookie back missed over a week of practice due to a groin issue, but was able to get in a few limited practice sessions. Guerendo practiced in full on Saturday and has no injury designation ahead of Week 1. Lead back Christian McCaffrey (calf, Achilles) is listed as questionable ahead of Monday's game. Guerendo would likely see a significant workload if McCaffrey sits out which seems unlikely. That being said, Guerendo could see a few touches as the third string back. He looks more like a stash for fantasy managers in dynasty or deep leagues.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey and fullback Michael Burton have been elevated ahead of the Week 1 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Humphrey has experience in this system as he played a full season with the Broncos in 2023. He finished with 13 receptions for 162 yards and three touchdowns last season. The assumption is that Humphrey is going to be extra depth heading into this game, so he probably won't see much time on the field. As for Burton, he should be the starting fullback, but there's not much fantasy value that comes along with that spot. Both players can be kept off the fantasy radar heading into Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (knee) will suit up for the Week 1 matchup against the Chicago Bears. The veteran wideout returned to practice this week after sitting out three weeks due to a knee issue. Hopkins told reporters that he's dealing with a torn MCL. Despite that, Hopkins plans to play through the issue, but he's expected to be limited. It sounds like Hopkins will play on Sunday, but fantasy managers still shouldn't have much faith in him. At the end of the day, Hopkins is probably a shaky WR4 with it being a pain tolerance type of injury. Fantasy managers who are rostering Hopkins should probably look for a better streaming choice ahead of Week 1.
From RotoBaller
In his first year with the Denver Broncos in 2023, kicker Wil Lutz finished as the No. 18 fantasy kicker by making 30 of his 34 field-goal attempts and 29 of his 31 extra-point opportunities in 17 games. It was enough to get the Broncos to sign him to a two-year contract extension in the offseason after it initially looked like he was about to jump ship and join the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 30-year-old veteran was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and has made 85.2% of his kicks in seven NFL seasons. It's not that he's an unreliable kicking option, but there are just much better options in fantasy to begin the season. The biggest reason why Lutz remains off the fantasy radar heading into a Week 1 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks is that he's kicking for an offense that will be led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Consistent field-goal opportunities may be hard to come by for the veteran.
From RotoBaller
After another injury-plagued year in 2023 in which he managed to play in just two games, Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich went undrafted in most standard-sized, 12-team fantasy leagues. Dulcich opens his third year in the NFL listed as the No. 2 TE on Denver's depth chart behind Adam Trautman, although it's widely expected that he'll end up as the Broncos' most targeted tight end when all is said and done this year. The 24-year-old caught 33 of 55 targets for 411 yards and two TDs in 10 games as a rookie and has shown upside as a fantasy TE when healthy. The problem is he's rarely been healthy. Entering Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field, Dulcich will be an upside TE3 stash in deeper fantasy leagues. If he stays healthy and earns the trust of rookie quarterback Bo Nix as a safety blanket, Dulcich could become a waiver-wire consideration in shallower leagues.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) is questionable to play Monday night against the New York Jets. The superstar running back suffered a calf injury in August, knocking him out of the preseason and most of training camp. However, head coach Kyle Shanahan never seemed concerned about McCaffrey missing Week 1. Every indication has been that the veteran will be on the field for the Monday night matchup against the Jets. Yet, fantasy players should have a backup plan on their roster if McCaffrey is a last-minute inactive. Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel will see most of the team's rushing workload if McCaffrey doesn't play.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (illness) is questionable to play tomorrow against the New England Patriots. The superstar wide receiver was already questionable to play after barely practicing this week because of contract negotiations. Unfortunately, it feels like Chase is trending towards not playing in Week 1, leaving the Bengals with limited options at wide receiver. Tee Higgins (hamstring) isn't expected to play against the Patriots, meaning Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton will likely get the start. Fantasy players with Joe Burrow on their roster should consider other options in Week 1, including adding Justin Fields off the waiver wire with Russell Wilson (calf) not expected to suit up against the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, Chase will be a snap count if he plays, making him a risk start for fantasy players.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds came to Denver in the offseason and essentially will replace Jerry Jeudy in 2024 as the team's WR2 behind Courtland Sutton. A season ago in Detroit, Reynolds finished with a 40-608-5 line in 17 regular-season games. His five touchdowns matched his career-high set back in 2018 with the Rams. Reynolds has never surpassed 618 receiving yards in any of his seven NFL campaigns and not much is expected of him in his first year with the Broncos in an offense that will be led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The 29-year-old went undrafted in most standard-sized, 12-team fantasy leagues, therefore he should be on most benches in deeper leagues in a Week 1 tilt in Seattle against the Seahawks. Reynolds dealt with a minor Achilles injury in August but practiced in full earlier this week and is good to go for the season opener.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton found the end zone a career-high 10 times on 59 receptions and 772 yards in 16 games in 2023. But that came with quarterback Russell Wilson at the helm, and now rookie Bo Nix will be leading the offense in a tough Week 1 draw in Seattle against the Seahawks. Fantasy managers should have drafted Sutton with the realistic expectations that he won't score double-digit TDs in 2024. Despite that, they should rest easy knowing target volume shouldn't be an issue. The Seahawks defense was a top-12 matchup for wideouts last year, and Nix could pepper Sutton with targets in his NFL debut in a hostile environment at Lumen Field. Sutton should be considered a WR4/flex with a safe floor in the season opener, and his stock could improve as the season goes on if he's able to establish chemistry with Nix like he had with Wilson last year.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (knee) suffered a sprained MCL in the 34-29 Week 1 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday in Brazil, according to Ian Rapoport. While he is expected to miss time with the injury, the franchise quarterback doesn't have a season-ending injury. How long Love will be out is still to be determined, but Malik Willis is currently the Packers' No. 2 quarterback. He should be the starter until Love is healthy. However, many have speculated that Green Bay could add a veteran to compete with Willis until Love returns. Unfortunately, fantasy managers might have to avoid starting any Packers pass-catchers with Willis under center.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders have placed quarterback Marcus Mariota (chest) on injured reserve and have signed quarterback Sam Hartman from their practice squad. Mariota, who sustained a chest injury during Wednesday's practice, will be sidelined until at least early October. Washington had signed Mariota to a one-year, $6 million contract before drafting Jayden Daniels with their second-round pick. Mariota, a former No. 2 overall pick in 2015, had agreed to either mentor or start as needed for the team. This marks Mariota's first season with the Commanders after previous stints with the Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles. The rookie from Notre Dame will step in as the third-string quarterback behind Daniels, the starter, and Jeff Driskel, the new backup, for the start of the season.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos second-year running back Jaleel McLaughlin did some great things for the Broncos in his first year in the NFL in 2023 despite going undrafted out of Youngstown State. McLaughlin battled for touches with lead back Javonte Williams and third-down specialist Samaje Perine and finished with 410 rushing yards and a touchdown on 76 carries for an impressive 5.4 yards per carry. He also added 31 catches on 36 targets for 160 yards and two more scores in 17 games. McLaughlin enters his second year as the clear backup to Williams, and he's also going to have to fend off rookie Audric Estime. The Broncos have a matchup in Week 1 against a Seattle Seahawks run defense that allowed the third-most half-PPR points to RBs a year ago, but as long as Williams stays healthy, it will be hard to recommend McLaughlin as anything more than an RB4/flex. He belongs on the bench in standard 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams broke into the league in 2021 as an impressive tackle-breaking back with three-down potential and a bright future in Denver. Williams' fantasy stock has since tumbled, mainly because of devastating season-ending knee injury suffered in 2022. The 24-year-old didn't look the same in 2023, averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry in what was a below-average Denver offense led by quarterback Russell Wilson. However, Williams quietly played 16 games and finished with 774 yards and three touchdowns, adding a career-high 47 receptions for 228 yards and two more TDs. He heads into a Week 1 matchup in Seattle against a revamped Seahawks defense, although they did allow the second-most half-PPR points to RBs per game in 2023. As the clear lead back in Denver, expect the Broncos to lean heavily on Williams in Bo Nix's debut, putting him on the RB2/3 borderline in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings have elevated running back Myles Gaskin to the active roster for Sunday's game against the New York Giants. Gaskin, who led the team with 128 rushing yards on 27 carries during the preseason and added four receptions for 16 yards, brings valuable experience with 41 NFL games and 17 starts. His impressive performance in training camp caught the coaches' attention, making him an essential depth addition behind Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler. Gaskin also returned three kickoffs for 55 yards in the preseason and could be utilized as the Vikings and Giants navigate the new kickoff rules. While Gaskin may not be a fantasy asset this week, it's reassuring to know he will be the next option if anything happens to Jones or Chandler.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys have officially activated wide receiver CeeDee Lamb from the exempt list, and he is set to play on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns in the season opener. Lamb had been holding out before signing a four-year, $136 million contract extension, which includes a record $38 million signing bonus for wide receivers and $100 million guaranteed. His $34 million annual average makes him the second-highest-paid receiver, trailing only Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. Lamb was placed on the commissioner's exempt list while the Cowboys utilized a two-game roster exemption, which allowed them to keep a roster spot open as Lamb worked to get back into form after missing most of training camp. As Lamb returns for this challenging matchup against the strong Browns defense, he will have had limited preparation. Although he remains a must-start in fantasy leagues, it's wise to temper expectations for Week 1 as he shakes off the rust.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) is traveling with the team to Atlanta despite being listed as questionable on the injury report. Wilson is dealing with tightness in the same calf he injured during training camp. He was limited in practice over the final two days of the week, leading to the questionable designation on the final injury report. While his availability for the game remains uncertain, he will at least be present with the team. If Wilson cannot play, the Steelers will turn to Justin Fields, who has a 10-28 record as an NFL starter. Fields, who competed with Wilson during training camp and preseason, was named the backup for Week 1 but now has an opportunity to prove himself as the potential full-time starter. The Steelers are set to face the Falcons on Sunday, and the inactives list, including the final decision on Wilson's status, will be released about an hour and a half before kickoff. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Steelers' quarterback situation, relying on any Steelers quarterback in fantasy leagues this Sunday may be risky, regardless of who starts.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix looked great in training camp and the preseason while quickly winning over the coaching staff and being named the starter over Jarrett Stidham. Many analysts thought Denver reached for the Oregon product with the 12th overall selection back in April, but head coach Sean Payton really likes him, and Nix's athleticism and strong arm could help him excel in the system right away. With that said, there is a lot of pressure on the 24-year-old as Denver's first rookie to start the season opener since legend John Elway in the early 1980's. In addition to that pressure, he'll be making his first NFL regular-season start in the harsh environment at Lumen Field in Seattle against the Seahawks. While Nix is an excellent stash in dynasty/keeper leagues, he's only worth a bench spot in two-QB superflex leagues in his rookie campaign as a QB3 heading into Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns while adding two catches for 23 yards and another score in his Philadelphia debut. Dynasty Analysis: The Eagles offense struggled in its first two series but came to life after with Barkley leading the way. It couldn't have gone much better for Saquon as he had 24 of the 25 running back carries with Kenneth Gainwell garnering just one tote. While we have a long way to go before declaring Barkley as being totally back, this was a pretty awe-inspiring debut for his new team.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Jayden Reed had four catches for 138 yards and a touchdown while adding a 33-yard rushing touchdown in Green Bay's season-opening loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Reed was a fantasy dynamo at times last year and this game showed that was no fluke. It looks like Reed, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are the top receivers in this offense and while any ot them can post a big game, Reed certainly looks like the best bet of the trio at the moment. The big concern with him is clearly the health of Jordan Love, so stay tuned.