RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Vikings drafted Maryland receiver Tai Felton with the final pick of the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Felton was the final pick of the third round, landing with the Minnesota Vikings in the process. He's a thin receiver and a bit of a product of his environment, but he could also be a late bloomer. After being taken on the second day, his stock seems to be on the rise and he should make for a solid mid-round rookie flier as a result.
Dynasty | Texas wide receiver Isaiah Bond was not taken on day two of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't exactly shocking considering the fact Bond is under investigation for misconduct. Still, it's notable as his talent is clearly better than that of a third day pick. We'll see what happens tomorrow, but he's looking like a late round flier in rookie drafts at best right now.
Dynasty | Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was not taken on day two of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: This is now truly shocking. Sanders was once the favorite to go at #1 overall and he's currently sitting on the board after 102 other players have been taken. Even worse, teams like New Orleans (Tyler Shough), Cleveland (Dillon Gabriel) and Seattle (Jalen Milroe) all took quarterbacks tonight and none of them decided Sanders was worth their selection. The freefall is one unlike we've seen in some time and it's going to take some time to sort out exactly what happened here. Sanders' rookie draft stock is bordering on zero at this point.
The Minnesota Vikings have selected Maryland wide receiver Tai Felton with the 102nd pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This selection represented the final pick of the third round and officially marked the end of Day 2. Felton developed into a talented draft prospect over four seasons at Maryland, culminating with a senior campaign in which he caught 96 passes for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns. Minnesota already has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison leading its wide receiver room, so Felton will merely offer valuable depth. He's a solid developmental piece who could ultimately compete with Jalen Nailor and Rondale Moore for the No. 3 receiver role.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted Illinois wide receiver Pat Bryant in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: This was about a round or two earlier than expected, so Bryant is likely going to move up into the late third round of rookie drafts as a result. He's a great goal line player and solid athlete, but he's going to need to refine his skills to be more than just a specialist for the Broncos.
Dynasty | The Houston Texans drafted Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: It's a very interesting pick as the Texans also took his teammate, Jayden Higgins in the second round. Noel will likely play the slot but it's hard to see immediate production with Higgins, Nico Collins and a soon-to-return Tank Dell in the mix. This has the looks of a pick that's better in reality than fantasy and Noel's draft stock is going to fall a touch after the draft now.
Dynasty | The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Most connected him to Pittsburgh but most also didn't believe he'd make it all the way to the 83rd pick in the NFL Draft. This is a great spot for Johnson, who should form a nice duo with Jaylen Warren next year and slide right into the void left by the departed Najee Harris. Johnson was in our top ten pre-draft and while that may be tough to hold on to, it's still right in the range where he's likely going to be taken based on this landing spot as he really is a prototypical Steeler player with his toughness, grit and motor.
Dynasty | The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: It was nearly impossible to think Pittsburgh was going to go through the draft's first two days without addressing both quarterback and running back. Well, quarterback hasn't been in the cards thus far but Johnson will help fill the void left by Najee Harris' departure. It's a big blow to the dynasty prospects of Warren in theory, but few really felt like he was going to be given the backfield all to himself anyway. He'll remain in the RB3 mix now as part of a likely committee for the Steelers.
Dynasty | The Seattle Seahawks drafted Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: It's an intriguing landing spot to say the least. He'll have little chance to challenge the incumbent (and highly paid) Sam Darnold for meaningful snaps next season, but Darnold also has an out in his contract that could make his time in Seattle short. The Seahawks will likely take a year to see if Milroe really does have the ability to refine his passing. If he can, he can be the next Jalen Hurts. If he can't, he's going to have a short career. He'll be a fun late round pick in rookie drafts because of his rushing ability alone.
Dynasty | The Cleveland Browns drafted Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Gabriel landed in a dream scenario being drafted by the Browns in the third round. He'll compete with Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco early in his career and while the chance of him starting in week one are remote, the chances of him playing at some point this year seem strong. He's going to move up the draft board after being the fifth quarterback taken with real draft capital being used on him as well.
The Arizona Cardinals have selected Michigan defensive back Will Johnson with the 47th overall pick during Friday's draft. Wow, well this could end up being a steal for the Cardinals as Johnson fell in the draft likely due to injury concerns. Johnson was viewed as a Day 1 prospect, but being limited to seven games last season probably hurt his draft stock. When healthy, Johnson has proven to be an elite zone coverage defensive back with good size and length. He finished his college career with 57 tackles, nine interceptions, and three returned touchdowns. Johnson should be a Day 1 starter and an immediate impact player on defense in Arizona.
From RotoBaller
The Seattle Seahawks have selected Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe with the 92nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Milroe is the only FBS player with 30 plus passing touchdowns and 30 plus rushing touchdowns from 2023-2024. He threw for 5,678 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while rushing for 1,257 yards and 32 touchdowns over the last two seasons. The 22-year-old has a cannon for an arm and is an exceptional athlete, but he needs to improve his accuracy as a passer. He will start off the 2025 season as the third-string quarterback behind Sam Darnold and Drew Lock. Milroe is ranked 38th overall as a rookie but is more of a dynasty stash for now as a backup for Seattle.
From RotoBaller
The Packers added another top receiver in the 2025 NFL Draft by selecting Savion Williams in the third round with the 87th overall pick after taking Matthew Golden in Round 1. Williams is a versatile playmaker who had a receiving, rushing, and passing touchdown last year with TCU. He is a solid receiver but also starred as the team's wildcat quarterback at times last year. He ran for six touchdowns and caught six more scores. He lined up in the backfield, out wide, and in the slot. The Packers could utilize him all over the formation in a role similar to Deebo Samuel Sr. or Cordarrelle Patterson. He'll be an interesting name to track in camp and preseason to see how the Packers incorporate his skill set into their growing offense.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns have selected Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel with the 94th overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Browns have been linked to various members of the quarterback class for quite a while, and now, they finally pull the trigger in the back half of the third round. Gabriel is the fifth signal-caller off the board, joining Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, and Jalen Milroe. Interestingly, Shedeur Sanders, who was once mentioned as a candidate for Cleveland at No. 2 overall, remains available as many quarterback-needy teams opt for different players. Gabriel played six seasons of college football, with stops at UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Replacing Bo Nix with the Ducks in 2024, Gabriel completed 326 of his 447 pass attempts for 3,857 yards, 30 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He also showcased his mobility with 149 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Gabriel will likely compete with Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco while the Browns wait for Deshaun Watson (Achilles) to get healthy.
From RotoBaller
The Steelers used the 83rd pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to add Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round. He had a solid year with the Hawkeyes despite their struggles on offense, totaling 1,537 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns on 240 attempts and adding 188 more yards and two touchdowns on 22 receptions out of the backfield. Johnson was a consensus All-American and a finalist for the Doak Walker Award as the top running back in the nation. This year, he'll team up with Jaylen Warren, who signed his restricted free agent tender, and Kenneth Gainwell to make up the primary options in the Steelers' backfield after the departure of Najee Harris to the Chargers. Johnson could replace Harris as the team's short-yardage, bigger back in the rotation.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have selected Illinois wide receiver Pat Bryant with the 74th overall pick in the NFL Draft. He was projected to go on Day 3 but was taken by Denver in Round 3 on Friday. The 6-foot-2 wide receiver has strong hands and is a big, possessive wideout who is a reliable blocker. Bryant tied for the Big Ten lead with 10 receiving touchdowns and racked up 54 catches for 984 receiving yards for Illinois last season. He will compete with Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele, and Troy Franklin to start opposite Denver's No.1 wideout, Courtland Sutton. Bryant is ranked as RotoBaller's 67th overall rookie. He could provide some fantasy value as a late-round flyer in redraft leagues in 2025 if he can secure the Broncos' No. 2 wide receiver role.
From RotoBaller
The Houston Texans have selected Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel with the 79th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Texans ultimately decided to double up on Cyclone wide receivers after taking Noel's teammate, Jayden Higgins, in the second round. Although most people did not expect the Texans to draft two wide receivers on Day 2, the decision makes sense. Houston lost Stefon Diggs during free agency, and Tank Dell (knee) likely won't be ready for Week 1 as he recovers from a brutal ACL tear. Noel and Higgins will team up alongside Nico Collins and offseason addition Christian Kirk, providing major reinforcements to support C.J. Stroud in the passing game.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Raiders drafted TCU receiver Jack Bech in the second round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bech landed in a great spot, being taken by the Raiders in the second round. With little other than All-World tight end Brock Bowers to catch passes, Bech could find playing time early in his career. It's fair to wonder if his lack of speed will truly pull him down, but Bech has been productive and looks like a player with some toughness. This landing spot should keep him around the third round of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted running back RJ Harvey in the second round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: We said all along in the pre-draft process that the landing spot for Harvey would be huge for his perceived dynasty rookie value and that's exactly what unfolded. Harvey is going to immediately push for real playing time with the likes of Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin, becoming the favorite to be the lead back in the process. Harvey has a lot to prove but he's a massive boom or bust prospect who is likely going to move up into the second round or even the late first for courageous managers in upcoming rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Cleveland Browns selected Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Fannin represents perhaps the biggest "boom or bust" player at tight end and perhaps even any position in the draft. After all, this is a player who set FBS records with 117 catches and 1,555 yards but also did it playing against sub-par competition. The Browns will likely find some creative ways to deploy him with David Njoku and Fannin makes for a fun pick with upside in the middle rounds of rookie drafts.
