RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 6
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: Injury Status: Week 6
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: Lineup Prep: Week 6
- YOUTUBE VIDEO: Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 6
- YOUTUBE VIDEO: Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 6
- YOUTUBE VIDEO: Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 5
- Steelers QB Russell Wilson (calf) closer to returning to action
- Commanders release QB Sam Hartman
- Anthony Richardson (hip, oblique) practices in full with Colts
- Steelers WR George Pickens claims ignorance of eye-black rule
- Packers grab TE John FitzPatrick off Falcons' practice squad
- Texans RB Joe Mixon (ankle) returns to practice
- Crazy for Brady? Bears owner admits pursuing QB in 2020
- Bears G Teven Jenkins (ankle) sits out practice
- Week 6 TNF: 49ers-Seahawks Preview, Props & Prediction
- Jets tab Todd Downing to call plays, demote Nathaniel Hackett
- Milton delays Jaguars' UK departure; still scheduled for two London games
- Owners to discuss Tom Brady's ownership bid next week
- Broncos' Payton touts rookie QB Bo Nix's processing skills
- Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. (back) out multiple weeks
- Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler to start vs. Buccaneers
- A.J. Brown, Lane Johnson set to return for Eagles
- Steelers' George Pickens facing fine for eye black expletive
- Displaced Bucs pack bags, families, riding out week in New Orleans
- Raiders make change, name Aidan O'Connell starting QB
- Patriots tout new QB1 Drake Maye's ability to make 'plays you see on TV'
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP Start Sit Week 6 | Great match-up for Overshown
- Fantasy Six Pack: Fantasy Football WR/CB Matchups Week 6
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Week 6 Best Bets | Tomlin’s Tips
- Fantasy Life: Week 6 Player Props: Amari Cooper, Josh Allen, and More
- Fantasy Life: WR Matchups for Week 6: Spots to Target and Avoid
- Fantasy Life: Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Rico Dowdle Values and More
- Fantasy Life: Week 6 Underdog and PrizePicks Pick'em Plays: C.J. Stroud Over
- Fantasy Life: Week 6 Fantasy Football Roundtable: Broncos, Browns, Brock Bowers, and more
- Fantasy Life: Friday FAQ: 49ers Hold On vs. Seahawks
The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 6
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf had a poor game on Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers. Metcalf finished the game with three receptions for 48 yards. Metcalf had been cruising this season and entered the game as the WR11 in fantasy. However, the 49ers more or less dominated the Seahawks and limited Metcalf's upside. Metcalf also had a couple of near-miss touchdowns in this game. Unfortunately, Metcalf's performance will set fantasy managers back heading into the weekend. However, there should be no panic or concern over his performance. Quarterback Geno Smith still threw for over 300 yards and Metcalf earned eleven targets. His catch rate was abysmal, but that kind of volume is sure to continue to translate to fantasy points. Metcalf will look to get back on track in Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey remains the top kicker heading into Week 6's matchup with the Detroit Lions. Aubrey missed a kick last week, going 2-for-3 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points. He will look to bounce back this week in a dome environment in Dallas in what projects to be a high-flying offensive battle. The 29-year-old is the top kicker option this week and offers week-winning potential. Start him in all leagues that utilize kickers.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant matched his season-high catch total of six on Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers. He also set a new season-high in receiving yards with 63. Fant has been a useless fantasy asset all season but if you happened to stream him this week then you were likely pleasantly surprised by the outcome. The Seahawks wound up throwing the ball 52 times, so it is no surprise that so many pass catchers were able to receive solid volume in this game. Even with a nice game from Fant, he is still too inconsistent to trust in fantasy football. However, if this trend continues then he would be worth an add off waivers.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III was inefficient on the ground in Week 6 against the San Francisco 49ers. However, Walker earned eight targets for the second straight game. Walker is not known as a pass catcher. That is a role that typically falls to backup running back Zach Charbonnet. Even so, the new Seahawks regime seems to be changing that narrative. Walker has earned 24 targets in 2024 which is 13 off of a career high. The Seahawks have also found themselves trailing quite a bit over the last three weeks which could contribute to Walker's volume in the passing game. Still, the passing game work is giving Walker a nice floor in fantasy and propelling him into the high-end RB1 conversation. If this trend continues in Week 7, then it may be safe to say that Walker will see solid passing game volume all season.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith had a rough outing on Thursday against the San Francisco 49ers. Smith threw for 312 yards and continued his 2024 trend of throwing for exactly one touchdown. However, he threw two costly interceptions as the Seahawks were unable to keep pace with a 49ers team that was opportunistic on turnovers throughout the game. The outing was disappointing for Smith as he was coming off two straight games with at least 22.56 fantasy points. However, Smith has now thrown for at least 312 yards in three of six games in 2024. At some point, the touchdown numbers should increase. Unfortunately, the Seahawks find themselves in a rut as they have lost three straight games. Smith often plays better when the Seahawks can play with a lead, which has not been the case lately. Hopefully, Smith can get back on track in Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba's target share continues to remain high. He seems to have found some consistency as Thursday's game against the San Francisco 49ers marked his third straight with at least seven targets. He has consistently kept pace with the targets earned by DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith-Njigba's only issue is that he has not scored many touchdowns. Quarterback Geno Smith has only thrown six touchdowns on the season and has thrown exactly one in every game so there have not been a lot of touchdowns to go around. Still, Seattle's offense continues to have to throw at a high rate to keep up with more challenging opponents as the season progresses. That will bode well for Smith-Njigba's volume throughout 2024.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett earned eight targets on Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers. Lockett turned those targets into four catches for 65 yards and his first touchdown of the season. Lockett had been solid for fantasy all season and it was great to see him score his first touchdown to deliver WR2 value this week. He finished tied for third on the team in targets but paced the pass catchers in receiving yards. Lockett continues to be a safety valve for quarterback Geno Smith. He has now racked up 40 targets in six games this season. His 339 receiving yards through six games puts him on pace for 960 on the season. If he can continue to receive solid volume and the touchdowns increase, Lockett could creep up the fantasy radar even farther.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson is a no-brainer start heading into Sunday's matchup with the Detroit Lions. The home game has the highest implied point total of any game this week (52), and Dallas will lean into the passing game per usual with Detroit's third-ranked run defense on the other side of the ball. Ferguson has averaged over eight targets per game since returning from injury in Week 3 and will continue to see a healthy workload on Sunday. Start the 25-year-old in all formats, as he has TE1 overall upside this week.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys' defense played one of their better games in Week 5, as they held Pittsburgh to just 17 points. They had three sacks and forced two fumbles, stringing together a solid fantasy outing after struggling the previous few weeks. This week, they welcome the red-hot Detroit Lions into town. Detroit is coming off of a bye having scored 42 points in their prior game against Seattle. They will be well-rested with plenty of time to prepare a game plan, creating a tough matchup. Trevon Diggs (ankle/illness), Eric Kendricks (calf/shoulder), and Micah Parsons (ankle) have all missed significant practice time this week and could cause Dallas to be short-handed on the defensive side of the ball this week. Look elsewhere for your fantasy defense for Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb disappointed fantasy managers in Week 5 with five receptions for 62 yards. This week, Lamb is in a prime position for a big week. The Cowboys welcome the Detroit Lions to town in a game with the highest implied point total (52) of the week. Detroit's rush defense is sound, creating an environment where Dallas may lean even more into the pass than usual. They do not have a shutdown corner, meaning Lamb should draw favorable matchups. The 25-year-old grades as the WR1 overall this week and needs to be started everywhere.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys receiver Jalen Tolbert is coming off of the best game of his career in which he caught the game-winning pass against Pittsburgh. Tolbert is a strong flex option in Week 6's matchup with the Detroit Lions. Detroit's tough run defense will only lead Dallas to lean even heavier into the pass, creating plenty of opportunities for Tolbert to get involved with Brandin Cooks (knee) on injured reserve. Tolbert solidified himself as Dallas' WR2 last week and is a safe start with a high ceiling in a potential shootout this week.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott remains a top fantasy option ahead of Week 6's matchup with the Detroit Lions. Prescott is currently third in the league in passing yards per game behind just Geno Smith and Jordan Love and should continue to put up big numbers against Detroit's softer secondary. The Lions' defense has been a pass-funnel defense all season long, as they rank third in run defense but sixteenth in pass defense. Their defensive weaknesses match up well with Dallas' offensive strengths, creating a potential shootout with many fantasy points to go around. Prescott should benefit, as he grades as one of the top quarterback options for Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has asserted himself as the workhorse running back over the past two weeks, most recently taking 65% of rushing attempts in Week 5's win. Although Dowdle should see a heavy workload in Week 6 against Detroit, the matchup is one of the toughest on paper. Detroit has allowed the seventh-least fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, likely making Dowdle a touchdown-dependent option this week. With that being said, there will likely be a lot of touchdowns in this game given that it has the highest projected point total of any game this week (52). Dowdle grades as a low-end RB2 option this week.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has seen his role diminish in the past few weeks. Elliott has taken a clear step back to Rico Dowdle, who had 22 touches compared to his six last week. This week, Dallas draws a tough running back matchup against Detroit. With Elliott's diminished workload along with a tough matchup, he should not be started anywhere this week. Elliott can be safely dropped in most formats, as he now serves as Dowdle's handcuff.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton revived the offense for a couple of weeks until they ran into the Chicago Bears defense in Week 5. Dalton watched the end of the game from the bench as Bryce Young returned under center for a bit in the fourth quarter. In Week 6, the Panthers will take on the Atlanta Falcons who have some holes in their defense but haven't given up too many big fantasy outings to opposing quarterbacks. They're averaging 17.3 fantasy points allowed per game which slots them right in the middle of the pack. The Falcons offense, led by Kirk Cousins, will likely come out firing against a weak Panthers defense, so this game could turn into a huge passing effort from Dalton as long as he plays the entire contest. With a banged-up receiving corps, however, it doesn't seem too likely that Dalton will register a big week.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker (concussion) has officially been ruled out for the team's Week 6 contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. Brisker has been one of the leaders of a very good defensive unit that has kept the Bears in striking distance every game. They enter this week as a top-four unit in terms of fantasy points scored so far this season. Elijah Hicks and Jonathan Owens are the next two safeties on the depth chart and Hicks will likely be the one to take over for Brisker in this game. The Jaguars finally bounced back with a win in Week 5, but Trevor Lawrence has proven to slip up more often than not, so this defense has serious potential.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard has enjoyed some big fantasy success over the last few weeks since Andy Dalton took over as the starting quarterback. He's registered finishes of RB7, RB7, and RB5 in half-PPR formats across those weeks. After a brief offensive improvement to win their first game, the offense has slowly returned to the not-so-great version we've seen before. Now, Hubbard goes up against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 who are the fifth-toughest defense against opposing running backs. They're only allowing an average of 15.9 fantasy points per game to backfields. Hubbard remains the best starting option from the Panthers' offense, but his upside is limited if the Falcons can get out to an early lead.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (groin) did not participate in practice on Thursday, his fourth DNP in a row since last week. He wasn't able to suit up for their last game against the Denver Broncos after picking up a groin injury during practice last week. Now, it seems he's on his way to miss another game. White hasn't been able to find a rhythm as the lead back this season, and Alexander Mattison earned more carries even when White was playing. Since the Raiders haven't played with a lead very often, the backfield has suffered on top of that. If White still can't get on the field this week, Ameer Abdullah will slot in as the backup to Mattison again.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) technically won the starting job in training camp, but hasn't been able to take the field due to a calf injury. In fact, the Steelers were ready to trot him out as the starter in Week 1 until the calf flared up a few days before kickoff, allowing Justin Fields to step in earlier than expected. Since then, Wilson has dressed as the emergency QB and has slowly worked his way to taking second-team reps. Head coach Mike Tomlin didn't explicitly say that Wilson would eventually take his spot back, but he said that "the door is ajar" in terms of a potential QB swap. While Fields has looked much improved from his days with the Chicago Bears, the passing game leaves a lot to be desired. Wilson may get the chance to see if he can breathe new life into it.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receivers Davante Adams (hamstring) and Jakobi Meyers (ankle) both registered DNPs for Thursday's injury report. Reports last week suggested that Adams would be healthy by this week, but as the week has progressed, he's increasingly been unlikely to play in Week 6's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is all while the team is looking for trade partners for the superstar receiver even though the trade market looks like it's going cold due to their asking price. Meyers, on the other hand, reportedly "seemed fine" and missing practice was more to make sure he's healthy by game time. Fantasy managers should still monitor his status leading up to the mid-afternoon kickoff on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
