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FFL: Week 11 | NFL: Week 11

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 11

Player Notes
Devaughn Vele Nov 16 10:30am ET
Devaughn Vele

Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele is looking to stay more involved in the Week 11 contest against the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Sunday after catching his first career touchdown pass in the Week 10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Vele's 35 offensive snaps he played last Sunday were the most in his first six NFL games, and he caught all four of his targets for 39 yards and the TD. The 26-year-old seventh-rounder out of Utah is actually third on the Broncos in receiving yards (215) this year behind Courtland Sutton and running back Javonte Williams and he should continue to have a role with Josh Reynolds (finger) on Injured Reserve. The Falcons secondary is inconsistent and vulnerable, too, although the lack of consistent volume for Vele makes him hard to recommend for starting fantasy lineups. He's caught 22 of his 27 targets on the year for 215 yards and one TD.

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Lil'Jordan Humphrey Nov 16 10:30am ET
Lil'Jordan Humphrey

Denver Broncos wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey is 0% rostered in Yahoo fantasy football leagues and is not a recommended play for the Week 11 tilt in Denver against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Humphrey does have some impressive after-the-catch abilities, but Denver's offense just hasn't had enough firepower this year to really support another fantasy-relevant pass-catcher behind Courtland Sutton. The 26-year-old Humphrey only had two receptions (three targets) for 23 yards in last week's loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs, and he's currently fourth on the team in receiving yards (211) on the year. Humphrey also has yet to find the end zone in 2024. He hasn't eclipsed 50 receiving yards in a single game despite seeing a bigger role on offense ever since the injury to Josh Reynolds (finger).

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Anthony Richardson Nov 16 10:10am ET
Anthony Richardson

The New York Jets defense struggled in Week 10, allowing the Arizona Cardinals to rack up 31 points against them in a blowout loss. They will look to bounce back at home against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11. The Colts have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to fantasy defenses this season and will turn back to struggling second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson after starting Joe Flacco in the previous two games. New York's defense has plenty of talent but they have been a mild disappointment this season. That being said, they are four-point home favorites in a game with a reasonably low 43.5-point over/under, putting New York in the position to post a useful fantasy outing on Sunday.

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Tutu Atwell Nov 16 10:00am ET
Tutu Atwell

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell is off the fantasy radar heading into Week 11 against the New England Patriots. Atwell played admirably in the absences of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua earlier this year, but he has fallen back down the depth chart upon their returns. He has caught just one pass in each of his last three games, playing less than 35 percent of the snaps in all of those contests. Even against a Patriots defense allowing the 11th-most catches and receiving yards to opposing receivers, Atwell can be ignored in fantasy football. In fact, he's droppable in redraft leagues with 14 or fewer teams.

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Tyquan Thornton Nov 16 10:00am ET
Tyquan Thornton

The New England Patriots have released wide receiver Tyquan Thornton (personal), according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Thornton had missed Thursday's practice with a personal matter, but he returned in a full capacity on Friday. The former 50th overall pick was underwhelming in two-and-a-half seasons with the Patriots, catching just 39 passes for 385 yards and two touchdowns over 28 games. This year alone, he had just four catches for 47 yards. A divorce between Thornton and the Patriots seemed inevitable after the team looked to trade him earlier this month. Nothing came to fruition, and Thornton ended up being a healthy scratch for each of the last two weeks. Despite his underwhelming stats in New England, the 24-year-old still has the allure of draft capital less than three years removed from being a second-round pick. He should generate some interest in free agency.

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Demarcus Robinson Nov 16 9:50am ET
Demarcus Robinson

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson should be viewed as a low-floor, high-ceiling option heading into Week 11 against the New England Patriots. Robinson had strung together an impressive two-game stretch with eight catches, 129 yards, and four touchdowns, but he came crashing back down to earth with just one reception for 23 yards last week. Still, he was targeted by Matthew Stafford five times, reaffirming the veteran's interest in getting the ball into Robinson's hands. Given that Robinson is a big-play deep threat, there are going to be some times when he just can't seem to get a spark offensively. Other times, he'll repeatedly catch deep passes and add a score or two. The Patriots aren't dominant against receivers, so Robinson could certainly be capable of breaking off a huge play (or even a touchdown) this week. The alternative, though, is a one-catch game with just a couple fantasy points. Managers should evaluate Robinson against other bench players on their roster, keeping in mind that Robinson ranks as a fantasy WR4.

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Colby Parkinson Nov 16 9:50am ET
Colby Parkinson

Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson appears to have been demoted to the No. 2 role on offense amidst the recent emergence of fellow tight end Davis Allen. In his last two games, Allen has averaged 55 percent and 80 percent of the offensive snaps, respectively. Parkinson, on the other hand, played just 42 percent and 16 percent, respectively. This is a major fall from grace for Parkinson, who had been a respectable streaming option earlier in the year, catching at least three passes in four of his first five games. As long as Allen and the rest of the Rams' pass-catchers stay healthy, Parkinson lacks fantasy appeal.

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Davis Allen Nov 16 9:50am ET
Davis Allen

Los Angeles Rams tight end Davis Allen has snuck onto the lower end of the fantasy radar after two impressive games. The 23-year-old has seemingly taken over as the Rams' top tight end, replacing 25-year-old Colby Parkinson. Allen has simply looked more talented and promising than Parkinson, catching five of his six targets for 34 yards as recently as last week versus Miami. It's a little too early to scramble and add Allen off the waiver wire, but his increased role and productivity are certainly intriguing. He's worth monitoring going forward as a potential midseason waiver claim.

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Puka Nacua Nov 16 9:40am ET
Puka Nacua

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua will look to maintain his steady volume and production during Sunday's Week 11 contest against the New England Patriots. Nacua has been impressive so far this season, averaging eight catches and 102 yards in the two games for which he's been healthy. He remains off the injury report against the Patriots and figures to have a full workload. The Patriots' defense is allowing the 11th-most receptions and touchdown catches to opposing wide receivers, but the 15th-fewest fantasy points to the position. Even with a merely modest matchup on tap, Nacua has shown that he can handle all challenges and should be treated as a low-end WR1 on Sunday.

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Kyren Williams Nov 16 9:30am ET
Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams saw his nine-game rushing touchdown streak come to an end in Week 9, and he hasn't been able to find the end zone in either of his last two contests. He'll look to pick back up and restart his streak this week against the New England Patriots. New England presents a favorable matchup for Williams given that the Rams are favorites to win (and therefore could run the ball more often) and the Patriots' defense has struggled to contain the rushing attack. In fact, the Patriots have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing touchdowns, and sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. Fantasy managers should fire up Williams as a strong, mid-range RB1 option.

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Cooper Kupp Nov 16 9:30am ET
Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp looks to continue his impressive stretch of games this Sunday against the New England Patriots. Kupp has totaled 23 catches, 235 yards, and one touchdown through three games since returning from injury, giving him 15+ fantasy points (PPR) in all three of those contests. This week, Kupp faces a Patriots defense that has been susceptible to the pass when tested. Of course, the Patriots have trailed for most of this season, so it's common for their opponents to run the ball more than they pass, especially as the clock winds down later in the game. With that said, the Patriots have still been thrown against. The Patriots' defense is allowing the 11th-most receptions and touchdown catches to opposing wide receivers, but the 15th-fewest fantasy points to the position. Even with a modest matchup on tap, Kupp has proven that he is matchup-proof and should be deployed in all leagues. Fantasy managers can trust him as a low-end fantasy WR1 this weekend.

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Joshua Karty Nov 16 9:20am ET
Joshua Karty

Los Angeles Rams kicker Joshua Karty faces the New England Patriots in Week 11, and he'll look to build on last week's impressive outing in which he drilled five of six field goals, including one from beyond 50 yards. Although New England has merely ranked near the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to kickers, Karty figures to benefit from the Rams being favored to win. The lines put Los Angeles in a position to score plenty of points, which means several field-goal opportunities for Karty. He's a fine streamer this week, ranking as a fringe top-12 fantasy kicker.

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Matthew Stafford Nov 16 9:20am ET
Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford can continue to be benched in most single-QB leagues as he faces the New England Patriots in Week 11. While the Rams enter Sunday's game as favorites and the Patriots' defense hasn't been a major turnover machine this year, it should be emphasized that New England has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They've also allowed the 11th-fewest touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, which could be a result of both their solid goal-line defense and other teams' tendencies to run the ball at a greater rate of frequency. All in all, the stars don't appear to be aligning for Stafford in fantasy football this week. He's outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, making him startable only in deeper or 2-QB leagues.

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Anders Carlson Nov 16 9:10am ET
Anders Carlson

The New York Jets are expected to deploy Anders Carlson as their kicker heading into Week 11's home matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets went with rookie Spencer Shrader as their kicker in Week 10 but the Kansas City Chiefs signed him from New York's practice squad on Thursday after losing Harrison Butker to injured reserve with a knee injury. That means the Jets will have their fourth kicker in as many weeks when they face off against a Colts defense that is allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing kickers this season. Carlson is not a recommended fantasy option this weekend.

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Garrett Wilson Nov 16 9:00am ET
Garrett Wilson

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson turned in his slowest game since Week 4 with a five-catch, 41-yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. He will look to bounce back against the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 11. The Colts have struggled to contain opposing receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Wilson has seen at least eight targets in all but two of his games this season and is safe to deploy as a solid WR1 in fantasy this weekend.

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Tyler Conklin Nov 16 9:00am ET
Tyler Conklin

New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin has been quiet of late, having caught just two passes for five yards over his past two games. The veteran tight end will look to bounce back against the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 11. The Colts represent an excellent matchup for Conklin as they are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. That being said, Conklin is not a major piece of the passing attack for the Jets and he may struggle to get the targets needed to take advantage of this cake matchup. Treat Conklin as a low-end TE2 who is worth a look as a streaming option if desperate in fantasy leagues.

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Breece Hall Nov 16 8:50am ET
Breece Hall

New York Jets running back Breece Hall has been held out of the end zone for three straight games and ran for just 52 yards on 10 carries last week. He will look to break that streak in Week 11's home matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have been an average matchup for running backs this season as they are allowing the 17th-fewest fantasy points per game this season. Despite his recent struggles, Hall remains an explosive player with the potential to do damage in the passing game, which keeps him in the conversation as a mid-range RB1 heading into Week 11.

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Aaron Rodgers Nov 16 8:40am ET
Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (hamstring, knee) is coming off one of his slowest games of the year as he threw for just 151 scoreless yards in a blowout loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. He has a chance to bounce back at home against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11. The Colts have struggled to slow opposing passing attacks this season as they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks thus far. Despite the plus matchup, Rodgers has not been fantasy-relevant very often this season, leaving him as a low-end QB2 for Week 11.

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Jameis Winston Nov 16 6:20am ET
Jameis Winston

The New Orleans Saints D/ST had a bit of a rebound against the Falcons in Week 10. For the first time since Week 3, they held their opponent to 17 points or fewer and they also racked up three sacks and an interception. The team has at least one pick in all but two games this season. In Week 11, they have a favorable matchup with the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's offense is averaging 16.4 points per game, fourth lowest in the league, and is allowing a league-worst 4.8 sacks per game. New Orleans' pressure rate ranks in the middle of the pack but they should have an easier time getting to quarterback Jameis Winston as the Browns' O-line concedes pressure at the fourth-fastest rate in the league. New Orleans is a quality candidate for streamers looking for a D/ST unit in Week 11.

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Jordan Love Nov 16 6:20am ET
Jordan Love

The Chicago Bears' defense and special teams will look to bounce back in Week 11 as they face off against the Green Bay Packers in a divisional rivalry game. After a relatively strong performance in Week 10, where the Bear's defense kept things competitive despite a tough loss to the New England Patriots, they now turn their focus to Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Love has talented pass-catchers at his disposal, including Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and tight end Tucker Kraft, all of whom will test the Bears' pass defense. The Bears' secondary will need to step up in a big way to prevent big plays and keep Love from finding rhythm with his weapons. On the ground, Packers running back Aaron Jones (assuming he plays) has been a steady force, and the Bears' run defense, which has been below average all season, will face a tough challenge containing him. While the Bear's defense can make plays, their inconsistenciesespecially against the runmake them a risky fantasy option this week. If you're in a pinch and don't have many better options, they won't necessarily destroy your team, but there are likely better-streaming defenses available for Week 11. It's best to temper expectations, as Green Bay's offense can potentially exploit the Bears' defensive weaknesses.

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