Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 10
On Sunday, Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson had a minimal impact in the team's Week 10 loss to the New England Patriots. With a limited role in the offense, Johnson carried the ball just once and finished with an unfortunate total of negative four rushing yards. His involvement in the passing game could have been more extensive, as he caught just one pass for five yards. The Bears' offense struggled to gain traction throughout the game, punting on eight of their eleven possessions and turning the ball over on downs twice. With the offense unable to sustain drives, Johnson and other skill players had little opportunity to make an impact. Johnson and the Bears offense will look to rebound next week against the Green Bay Packers, who will be coming off a bye week and ready to face the challenge.
From RotoBaller
In Week 10, Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore had a frustratingly quiet performance in the team's 20-3 loss to the New England Patriots. Moore finished the game with just three receptions for 24 yards, but he failed to reach the end zone, leaving fantasy managers disappointed by his lack of production. Additionally, Moore contributed minimally in the rushing game, recording just one rush for three yards. His struggles were largely due to the Bears' anemic offense, which managed a mere 120 yards passing behind a beleaguered offensive line that allowed nine sacks throughout the game. With the offense unable to sustain drivespunting on eight of their ten possessions and turning the ball over on downs twiceMoore and the rest of the receiving corps found it difficult to generate momentum. Looking ahead, Moore and the Bears will have a chance to bounce back next week against a tough Green Bay Packers defense, which will be well-rested after their bye week.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams faced a tough test against the New England Patriots in Week 10. Despite showing flashes of potential, Williams struggled in the face of relentless pressure from the Patriots' defense. He completed 16 of 30 passes for a modest 120 yards and failed to find the end zone, contributing zero passing touchdowns to the scoreboard. To make matters worse, Williams was sacked an astounding nine times, as the Bears' offensive linealready banged upfailed to provide consistent protection. While Williams did lead one scoring drive, the Bears offense was primarily stagnant, punting on eight of their ten possessions and turning the ball over on downs twice. Heading into Week 11, Williams and the Bears offense will look to bounce back against a well-rested Green Bay Packers defense, which will be coming off their bye week and is sure to be prepared for the challenge.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle scored a touchdown for the seventh time in eight games during a 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers in Tampa on Sunday. He caught three of four targets for 57 yards, including the touchdown. Kittle's score was an important fourth-quarter toe-tapping snag in the corner of the end zone. As we saw Sunday, Kittle's target share will likely take a hit with the return of Christian McCaffrey and the emergence of Jauan Jennings coupled with the evident competence of rookie Ricky Pearsall. Kittle has been by far the most productive tight end in fantasy this year. With many leagues facing the trade deadline this week, the joyful 31-year-old is a sell-high candidate for those looking to bolster at other positions. On the other hand, Kittle has the red zone skills to overcome diminished volume, especially at a perennially thin position. Kittle has a plus matchup in Week 11 when the 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall caught his first NFL touchdown in a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa on Sunday. The 2024 first-rounder caught four of six targets for 73 yards, including a 46-yard catch-and-run to the pylon on a crossing route. The 49ers clearly have something in the 24-year-old but in the Shanahan era, they have not been able to support three wide receivers in fantasy. It's possible that Pearsall jumps ahead of Jauan Jennings in production, and indeed he did today due to the long TD, but Jennings -- who had 11 targets on Sunday -- isn't likely to go away. As a result, Pearsall projects as what he was today -; a touchdown-dependent deep-league or bye-week FLEX. Pearsall and the 49ers will host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
The Philadelphia Eagles had a field day against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, moving to 7-2 on the season with a big 34-6 win on the road. The Eagles' defense played a key part in the victory, holding Dallas to just six points, 97 rushing yards, and 49 net passing yards. The unit also intercepted one pass, recovered four fumbles, and tallied three sacks. Numerous players contributed to the dominant effort, including linebacker Zack Baun (eight tackles, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery) and defensive tackle Milton Williams (two tackles, one sack, and one fumble recovery). Philadelphia's performance was largely inflated by the poor quarterback play of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, and while the Eagles' defense still has rest-of-season fantasy appeal, they're tough to trust against the flashy Washington Commanders offense in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling hit paydirt in Week 10. On just three catches he racked up 109 yards and scored two touchdowns. For his first score, he reeled in a 40-yard bomb from Derek Carr. On the Saints' next drive, Carr hit MVS on another deep route for a 67-yard gain, setting up his second touchdown from two yards out. With injuries to several Saints receivers thinning the depth chart, the door was wide open for the few still standing to make an impact and MVS ended up being the biggest beneficiary. It was the first time he scored a touchdown since Week 7 of 2023 and the first time he topped 100 yards since 2022. Released by the Bills after they acquired Amari Cooper, Valdes-Scantling now has the inside track to become the Saints' new WR1 as they head into a matchup against the Cleveland Browns in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert converted his three targets into two catches for 25 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's Week 10 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Although his volume was quite low, he salvaged his fantasy performance by finding the end zone in Philadelphia's big 34-6 win. The 29-year-old is averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game (PPR) this year and should be treated as a mid-to-low TE1 heading into Week 11 versus the Washington Commanders.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara came into Week 10 needing 12 yards to overtake Mark Ingram as the franchise's all-time leading rusher and achieved that milestone on his second touch of the game. On the day he took 17 carries 55 yards on the ground and caught five of his six targets for 54 receiving yards. With the Saints' receiving corps depleted by injury, Kamara led the team in receptions and targets. With just under two minutes left in the game, Kamara was left wide open downfield but what would have been the game-sealing touchdown pass bounced off his hands. The Saints held on for a 20-17 win over the Falcons but Kamara's scoreless streak extends to four games. His next chance will come against the Cleveland Browns in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Taysom Hill had four rushing attempts for 14 yards and caught both of his targets for 36 receiving yards in the New Orleans Saints 20-17 upset of the Atlanta Falcons. Hill could have had a much more lucrative fantasy score had it not been for a teammate's miscue. The 34-year-old utilityman was on the receiving end of the Saints' opening play, a play-action bootleg that he took 88 yards to the end zone, but the score was nullified due to a holding penalty on Foster Moreau. Hill's usage disappointed fantasy managers hoping he would build off of a solid Week 9 performance, especially with the Saints' offense decimated by injuries. Hill has at least six touches in five of the six games where he has been active. A similar workload can be expected in Week 11 when the Saints face the Browns, with his fantasy value hinging on him finding the end zone.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back Hassan Haskins scored the first touchdown of his NFL career in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Haskins only carried the ball twice and gained four yards total, but one of those runs was a goal-line plunge in the fourth quarter. He remains third at best on the depth chart, with both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards well ahead of him. Haskins is a solid depth piece on an NFL team, but isn't worth consideration in any fantasy formats at this point.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr went 16-for-25 for 269 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 upset of the Atlanta Falcons. He also picked up 17 yards on the ground. Overall, it was his best performance (fantasy or otherwise) since the season's opening weeks when the Saints looked like an offensive powerhouse in the making. Carr also avoided being sacked for the first time this season and also did not throw an interception. Ironically, he set a new season-high in passing yards even with the Saints' wide receiver room thinned out by a spate of injuries. Journeyman Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the big winner, catching both of Carr's touchdown passes and running back Alvin Kamara remained his favorite target, seeing six balls thrown his way. In Week 11, Carr will face the Cleveland Browns who will be coming off their bye but gave up 282 yards and two touchdowns to Justin Herbert in Week 9.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker made all five of his kicks in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Dicker made all three extra points along with two field goals in another solid performance. His first field goal was a 21-yard kick in the first quarter and his second was a 37-yarder in the second quarter. Dicker has been exceptionally accurate and has added some distance to his kicks this season, making him a solid and reliable fantasy kicker despite it being fantasy football's least projectable positions.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly led the team in catches and targets in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Dissly made five catches on six targets for a total of 30 yards. Quarterback Justin Herbert only attempted 18 passes, completing 14 of them. Dissly returned to a heavily involved role in the passing game after a down game last week. He may continue with similar involvement going forward, but he's very much just a floor play without much of a ceiling. The Bolts will take on the Bengals in Week 11 for a Sunday Night Football contest.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston scored the only receiving touchdown for the Bolts in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Johnston was targeted twice, making both catches for a total of 24 yards. His touchdown was on a 16-yard pass near the end of the third quarter. The Chargers went extremely run-heavy in this game, recording just 18 pass attempts compared to 39 rushes. Next week against the Bengals on Sunday Night Football should require a few more passes, making Johnston a possible WR3 in that contest.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey made just two catches in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. He ended up leading the team in receiving yards though, gaining 52 yards on the day. McConkey only saw two targets on a day where quarterback Justin Herbert attempted only 18 passes. McConkey had a long 37-yard gain and combined that with a 15-yard play to compile his yardage. McConkey is likely to see more than just two targets on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, when the Chargers will face the Cincinnati Bengals.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers surrendered 27 points to the Washington Commanders while recording three sacks and a fumble recovery in a Week 10 victory. It was far from a dominant showing for Pittsburgh's defense, especially from a fantasy perspective, but its pass rush continued to make an impact. Newly-acquired linebacker Preston Smith logged a sack in his Steelers debut while Patrick Queen made numerous plays to limit Washington's potent offensive attack. Unfortunately, standout linebacker Alex Highsmith (ankle) was injured late in the contest and could be forced to miss some time. Fantasy managers may want to hang on to the Steelers DST for a Week 12 bout with the Cleveland Browns, but it won't be a recommended option next week against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer made just one catch in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Palmer was targeted twice, making his one catch for a 36-yard gain. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert only attempted 18 passes in this extremely run-heavy game, leaving Palmer tied for third on the team in targets with his pair and second on the team in receiving yards with the 36. Palmer has seemingly worked his way into a boom-or-bust type role but has yet to have a significant boom week. He's not a reliable fantasy starter and should remain on most fantasy benches in Week 11 when the Chargers take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings bolstered his fantasy value in a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa on Sunday. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound wideout led the game with 11 targets, which he turned into seven receptions for 93 yards. Today's contest could be treated as something of a bellwether concerning San Francisco's post-Brandon Aiyuk passing attack, as Jennings himself was also absent due to injury for the Week 8 victory over Dallas. With Jennings nearly doubling the target total of rookie Ricky Pearsall and Deebo Samuel Sr. -- each with six -- it appears that Jennings is here to stay as a weekly starting option in fantasy. Jennings and the 49ers will take on the rival Seattle Seahawks at home in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins didn't do all that much in a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Dobbins carried the ball 15 times, gaining 50 yards. He was targeted in the passing game three times, making all three catches but gaining a total of just five yards through the air. Gus Edwards (ankle) returned from IR and took 10 carries of his own, eating into the workload of Dobbins. The Chargers were nursing a lead for most of the second half though, presumably in a closer game Dobbins will still be the top option in the backfield. That closer game could happen on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
From RotoBaller