RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (groin) was able to return to play in Week 7 against the Los Angeles Rams. He was only given three carries, which he took for 13 yards, and one catch, which he gained 14 yards on. It's likely that he was used minimally due to the injury he was recovering from. It's hard to draw conclusions based on a game like this. Even star players will sometimes see little to no work in their first game back from an injury absence. That said, he hasn't played well this season, and is best left on the bench in Week 8, when the Raiders face the Kansas City Chiefs and their elite run defense.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker hauled in three passes on eight targets for 37 yards and rushed one time for 11 yards in the team's loss to the Los Angeles Rams In week 7. He was mostly held in check despite being the top receiver option available for the team. All of Las Vegas' offense has been underperforming for most of the season save for tight end Brock Bowers. Moving forward, the second-year pro isn't an intriguing start option given the state of the offense. With wide receiver Davante Adams now on the Jets, Tucker is the WR2 for the team when Jakobi Meyers (ankle) returns to the lineup. The Raiders face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8. Tucker an appetizing start for that matchup.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets defense struggled in Week 7, allowing 37 points and notching just one sack in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jets were shredded by Russell Wilson in his first start of the season as they allowed the Steelers to rack up 409 yards of total offense in the blowout loss on Sunday night. Their lone sack came from Will McDonald IV, who notched his eighth sack of the season. The Jets will look to bounce back in Week 8 against the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard caught all four of his targets for 58 yards in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Lazard finished third on the team in receiving yards in the lopsided loss, despite drawing only the four targets. Aaron Rodgers keyed in on his top two receivers in the contest, sending nine targets apiece toward Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. The addition of Adams last week in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders is expected to hurt Lazard the most, although he scratched out a decent game on Sunday night. Expect Adams to be more of a thorn in Lazard's side as the former gets more comfortable with his new team. Treat Lazard as a low-end flex option heading into Week 8 against the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin caught all four of his targets for seven yards and a touchdown in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Conklin did not rack up the yardage in this one but he salvaged his night with a one-yard touchdown grab in the second quarter of the contest on Sunday night. The veteran tight end has been a decent option as a fantasy tight end this season, catching 23 passes for 198 yards and one touchdown through seven games. He will be a TE2 in fantasy in Week 8 when the Jets take on the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein missed his lone field-goal attempt but added an extra point in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Zuerlein has struggled of late as he has missed three field goals over the past two games and has made just eight of 13 through seven games this season. The Jets tried out other kickers last week in practice and could consider pursuing another option at the position again this week. Zuerlein will hope to remain the team's kicker heading into a Week 8 matchup against the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Braelon Allen carried the ball two times for four yards and added a two-yard catch in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Allen has seen his workload decrease dramatically since Todd Downing took over play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett two weeks ago. Since the reshuffling on the coaching staff, Allen has just five carries for 12 yards. Allen remains a quality handcuff option in fantasy leagues but he should not be in starting lineups moving forward. The Jets will take on the New England Patriots in Week 8.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught six of his nine targets for 61 yards in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Wilson and Davante Adams wound up both drawing nine targets in their first game together since the Jets acquired the latter in the trade from the Las Vegas Raiders last week. For fantasy managers with Wilson on their rosters, it was encouraging to see as there were some concerns the addition of Adams would cut into Wilson's production. Wilson now has 46 catches for 460 yards and three touchdowns through seven games this season. He will take on the New England Patriots in Week 8 in a rematch from Week 3 when he caught five passes for 33 yards and a touchdown.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams caught three of his nine targets for 30 yards in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Making his debut with the Jets after they acquired him from the Las Vegas Raiders last week, Adams tied for the team lead in targets but was unable to get on the same page as Aaron Rodgers for much of the night. Adams should produce more in the coming weeks as he has more time to acclimate with his new team. Treat him as a WR2 heading into a Week 8 matchup against the New England Patriots.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of his 39 passes for 276 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. Rodgers has uncharacteristically struggled to take care of the ball of late, throwing six interceptions over his past three games. The veteran quarterback threw his lone touchdown to Tyler Conklin in the lopsided loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday night. Rodgers has now thrown for 1,663 yards, 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions through seven games this season. Settled in as a QB2 in fantasy moving forward, Rodgers will take on the New England Patriots on the road in Week 8. He threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns back when these two teams met in Week 3.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Breece Hall carried the ball 12 times for 38 yards and a touchdown while adding six catches for 103 yards in a 37-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. For the second consecutive week, Hall dominated the backfield touches as Braelon Allen saw just two carries in the lopsided loss to the Steelers. Hall showed his skills in the passing game on Sunday night as he wound up leading the Jets in receiving. The veteran running back is putting together a solid season, rushing for 348 yards and adding 32 catches for 307 yards and four all-purpose touchdowns through seven games. Hall will be an RB1 in fantasy when the Jets take on the New England Patriots in Week 8. He ran for 54 yards and a touchdown back when these two teams met in Week 3.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle was the focal point of a struggling 49ers offense during a 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at Levi's Stadium. Kittle grabbed six of seven targets for 92 yards -- the receptions and yards being game-highs. San Francisco had little choice but to lean on Kittle after falling to a 14-3 deficit, and seeing Deebo Samuel Sr. (illness) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) head to the locker room. Kittle has now exceeded projections in five consecutive games, maintaining a stranglehold on the overall TE1 position in fantasy. If Aiyuk has suffered a serious injury as feared, fantasy managers can expect a similar target share for Kittle moving forward. Kittle will be a top play again on Sunday night when the 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Jacob Cowing got his first career action in the passing game during a 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. The fourth-round pick had seen most of his work this year as a punt returner but became involved in the offense when Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (illness) left near the end of the first half, and with Jauan Jennings already having been ruled out earlier in the week. Cowing finished with two receptions for 50 yards on three targets. One of those receptions was an important-at-the-time 41-yard fourth-quarter bomb. If Aiyuk's injury is a torn ACL as feared, Cowing will be a deep-league waiver target -- along with fellow rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall has the long-term edge over Cowing based on Pearsall's first-round pedigree, but Cowing had a more impactful day and Pearsall hadn't played an NFL snap until today, including preseason. San Francisco will host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8 on Sunday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce caught two of his five targets for 15 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Pierce led Indy in targets, tied with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. Pierce and quarterback Anthony Richardson did connect on a 28-yard pass that nearly had him in the end zone, but the play was ultimately negated due to an illegal formation penalty. Pierce has been a very boom-or-bust option for fantasy managers and will likely continue to stay in a similar role moving forward. That being said, Pierce will have a more favorable matchup in Week 8 against the Houston Texans and can potentially be viewed as a WR4/5 option in the contest.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay made all three of his field goals and connected on his only extra-point opportunity in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Gay accounted for ten of Indy's six points, making a huge difference in Sunday's low-scoring contest. His longest field goal came from 52 yards out, with his other two coming from 22 and 38 yards out, respectively. Gay was 0/2 from 50+ yard attempts before Sunday's contest but was able to put one through in the second quarter. He'll look to build on his strong performance in Week 8 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs caught just one of his three targets for three yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Colts struggled to move the ball through the air throughout the contest, relying on their run game to help lead them to a win. Downs had seen some high-level production in previous weeks with quarterback Joe Flacco as the starter but has struggled to see a similar fantasy output with quarterback Anthony Richardson at the helm. The Dolphins' secondary has been a stingy unit so far this season, and Downs and company are in store for a better matchup in Week 8 against the Houston Texans. That being said, Downs can be viewed as a WR3/4 option in the contest.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell caught two of his three targets for 30 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Mitchell finished second in receiving yards for Indy, behind Michael Pittman Jr., who finished with 63. All of Indy's pass-catchers finished with underwhelming stat lines, given Miami's run funnel defense. Despite finishing second in yards, Mitchell continues to see a very low snap share, logging just 14 total snaps with six routes run in the matchup. While he has still seen production in the limited snaps, it does make him hard to trust as a viable option moving forward. The former Longhorn is likely off the radar in Week 8 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. caught three of his five targets for 63 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Pittman accounted for almost half of Indianapolis' receiving yards on Sunday, with quarterback Anthony Richardson throwing for just 129 yards in the contest. Most of Pittman's production came from a 33-yard throw from Richardson in the first half that set up a field goal before the half expired. Like the rest of Indy's pass-catchers, their ceilings take quite a hit with Richardson as the starter, but Pittman showed today he still provides a solid floor and can be trusted moving forward. He can be viewed as a WR3 option in Week 8 when the Colts take on the Houston Texans.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed ten of his 24 passing attempts for 129 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins, throwing no touchdowns and no interceptions. Richardson found some success on the ground, running the ball 14 times for a team-high 56 yards, but did lose a fumble in the red zone in the first half. Richardson has struggled to put up big numbers through the air this season and hasn't seen incredibly high numbers on the ground to help compensate from a fantasy perspective. Fantasy managers can view Richardson as a low-end QB1 option in Week 8 when the Colts visit the Houston Texans.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Trey Sermon carried the ball eight times for 36 yards in the team's 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Sermon also caught his only target for another 13 yards through the air. Sermon took a backseat to running back Tyler Goodson in Sunday's matchup, being out-touched 14-to-nine, marking the first time Goodson had the higher opportunity share since the two overtook the backfield in Jonathan Taylor's (ankle) absence. Sermon had some issues with efficiency in the previous week but improved on that, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on Sunday. Sermon's fantasy value does take quite a hit with Goodson's expanded role, and the two may both be off the radar in Week 8 if Taylor were to return. If Taylor sits out again in Week 8 against the Houston Texans, Sermon can be viewed as a RB3/4 option.
From RotoBaller
